Quarter-End Rebalancing Fuels Record U.S. Pension Stock Purchases
🇺🇸 Today is the last day for funds to rebalance their portfolios for the quarter-end close. Earlier, Goldman reported that by the end of the quarter, U.S. pension funds could buy equities in amounts close to a historical record as part of rebalancing. Some experts believe that today’s rise in U.S. stocks may be explained by this.
Market Oversold Yet Fundamentals Strengthen with 4.5% ERP
The matrix below shows that the market is oversold, but not to the extremes that has led to low risk contrarian plays in the past. With the P/E ratio down twice as much as price, the fundamentals are looking better...
IT Sector's Forward P/E Aligns with Market
The forward P/Es of the IT sector and the overall market have nearly converged. @augurinfinity https://t.co/AVJYMyYzGn https://t.co/F33svpKEq0
Most Magnificent Seven Stocks Enter Bear Markets, Signaling Leadership Shift
The S&P 500 is only down 9% from its January high. But 6 of the 7 members of the Magnificent Seven are already in bear markets. This is what a shift in leadership looks like. https://t.co/QcFh9RaBaK
Systematic Strategies for Inflation‑Driven Market Regime Shift
With the recent inflation shock and a rapidly changing market landscape, it’s a good time to think more systematically. On our latest @excessreturnpod, we’re joined by @AahanPrometheus to do just that. We cover: - inflation and energy dynamics - shifting expected returns - trend following -...
Buffett Holds Record Cash, Still Waiting to Invest
Warren Buffett is not rushing to enter the market just yet. Berkshire Hathaway currently holds around $382 billion in cash - a record amount in the company’s history. Even amid the market decline, the team is not hurrying to make new purchases....
Vox Royalty Posts Record Year, Debt-Free, Expanding Portfolio
Record year for @vox_royalty: revenue of $16.6M, record operating cash flow of $10.7M, and adjusted EBITDA of $9.3M. Also: debt gone, stock included in GDXJ, and new royalties added. 70+ royalties now, 12 producing = Vox is the royalty stock...
Europe Must Ramp Up Defense as US Pulls Back
It's pretty obvious NATO is in serious trouble. US pulling back will force European Countries to bolster there own defences hugely. Keep holding those big Defence Stock positions :-)
Micron's Drop Stems From Unrelated Blog, Not Fundamentals
Micron hit $471 eight days ago on the best earnings in its history. Revenue tripled. HBM4 sold out. Guidance raised to $33B. Today it trades at $331 — down 30%. The reason? A Google blog post about a year-old compression...
Stay Calm: Long-Term Value Beats Short-Term Panic
Warren Buffett reminds us that stocks might feel risky in the short term, but over the long run, they create real wealth. Even Berkshire Hathaway went through 50% drops, and Buffett stayed confident. Think like an owner, focus on value,...
Stryker's 52‑week Low Signals a Buying Opportunity
Stryker hit a new 52-week low today. Going by the last 40 years, that means it's a buy. https://t.co/Dcwo43vFpe
Energy Surges, Tech Slumps: Market Signals Survival Mode
Q1 rotation: $XLE +20%. $QQQ -4.2%. Money is moving FROM innovation TO survival. That's not a style rotation. That's the market telling you what it believes about the economy. When energy beats tech by 24 points in a quarter, listen. --- https://t.co/SxMLhgCbeX
S&P 500 EPS up 7% YTD, Margins Hit Record Highs
S&P 500 12-month EPS is up about 7% YTD, with half of that coming once the war started. Profit margins have hit new highs as well, not necessarily end of world stuff here. https://t.co/O1CvyznyMm
Apple’s AI Sideline: Hidden Advantage Amid Tech Rush
Deep Dive Full Thesis: Is AAPL a BUY now at $247? Apple just posted its best quarter in history at $247. Yet here’s the contrarian edge most investors are missing: AAPL is still one of the world’s largest and most iconic brands, but...
MU Solid, but Lacks 30% Safety Margin
$MU On March 20, 2026, I dropped my full Deep Dive Thesis on $MU and immediately put it on my personal watchlist. The price at the time? $420. It’s a great company — no debate there. But it simply didn’t offer the 30%+ margin...
PWR Targets $10‑12B Free Cash Flow by 2030
$PWR analyst day: raising 2030 targets for revenue, EBITDA, EPS and ROIC. FCF is expected to go from $1.67B today to $10-$12B aggregate. #electrification #grid #infrastructure
Top Trillion-Dollar Stocks Ranked by Growth-Value Appeal
The Growth-Value analysis of the trillion dollar club: $NVDA, $META, $TSM, $MSFT, $GOOG, $AVGO, $AMZN, $BRK-B, $AAPL, $WMT and $TSLA, in the order from more to less attractive. This is only a screening tool. Need to do in-depth research before...
Consistency and Growth Outperform Chasing High Yields
Dividend ETFs look similar… but they’re built very differently. • VYM → broad, steady income • SCHD → quality + dividend growth • SPYD → higher yield (more risk) • DGRO → consistent dividend growers Chasing the highest yield isn’t always the smartest move. Growth +...
S&P 500 Outperforms Small Caps, Defying Historical Norms
Small caps returned 11% over the past decade. Their historical average? 12%. The S&P 500 returned 15.3% — nearly 50% above normal. Which one's the anomaly? #Stocks #Equities #SmallCaps @rockwealthUK https://t.co/poKgLEYnvn
Buffett's Rule: Skip Hype, Seek Fundamental Value
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett's strategy? Stay away from flashy stocks, and assess fundamentals to find undervalued ones. https://t.co/qsceHG36d7
RIAs Gain Scale Tax‑Free via 721 LP Contributions
This is an interesting idea for RIAs who DO NOT want to join a PE firm, but still want to compete at scale. Tl;dr. Contribute to an LP via 721 (tax free contributions), and essentially diversify with a bunch of...
Oversold Markets Call for Tactical Trades, Steady Investing
$SPX is ~10% off highs and QQQ ~11%, with many names 40–60% off, so it feels like we’re close to an oversold bounce but still not seeing traction. If you trade for a living, be tactical and pick spots carefully;...
Stocks vs Commodities Divergence May Finally Revert
What Stops Stocks vs. Commodities Reversion? An extremely extended US stock market vs. commodities and GDP may have found a worthy spark for reversion, with post-inflation deflation leanings. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/KWrklODsPM {BI COMD} |#commodities #stockmarket #crudeoil @BBGIntelligence
Midterm-Year S&P Drops Average 18%, Rebounds Afterward
Going back to 1926, the S&P 500 has seen an average drawdown of 18.2% in the 12 months before midterm elections. Going back 60 years, the smallest drawdown has been 7.4% while the largest was 41.8% . After the midterms, everything is...
Munger's Inversion: Avoid Stupidity, Achieve Success
Charlie Munger’s 5 ‘Inversion’ Secrets: Why Avoiding Stupidity Is Easier Than Seeking Brilliance For Most People https://t.co/8jCBh7vmM7
HFG Shifts to Meat, Cuts Debt, Holds Dividend
#HFG looks as expected. Debt down a bit which is good. Focus on meat now. Committed to progressive Dividend policy. Looks like seafood/veg might get sold off.
RPI Beats EBITDA Forecast, Sustains Momentum Into FY2026
#RPI "EBITDA growth ahead of expectations". "Strong momentum carried into FY 2026". Successfully navigated rising DRAM costs (this was a big worry at last update).
Don’t Miss AI’s Long‑Term Growth Amid Market Pullback
Some investors are pulling back from AI stocks. After a strong run, concerns around valuations and heavy spending are driving rotation into other sectors. But stepping away too early could mean missing the next phase of growth. AI is not a short-term...
Why the Market Still Isn’t Bottoming Despite Covid Discount
We are sending a very long ‘Kya Lagta Hai’ newsletter to our smallcase and PMS subscribers today. We discuss just one aspect today & that is: ‘Why is our market not bottoming out?’ If we could discount Covid in weeks, why is...
Record-Low Insider Selling Signals Buying Opportunity
- CNN Greed & Fear ratio 9/100 - Asia insider selling/buying ratio has reached a record low of 0.16 (!) according to Smart Insider - Trump is declaring that he wants to end the war - Bill Ackman (whose track record on market...
Japanese Cross‑shareholdings Shield Incumbents, Hurt Shareholders
Shareholders are supreme under Japanese corporate law, but shareholders' economic interests are not. What is the distinction? Japan is (in)famous for its webs of cross-shareholdings. Suppliers, customers, financial institutions own shares in each other, and always support incumbent management with their...
Approaching Market Capitulation; Relief Rally Likely Soon
Stock prices are thrashing around from one headline to another but we are getting very close to capitulation. Support just few % points below current level, we should at least get a relief rally from there. Growth stocks are washed...
Munger Says Own Apple Among Elite 12 Stocks
Charlie Munger on Berkshire's Apple investment: "What everybody learned is everybody needs some significant participation in the 12 companies that do better than everybody else. If you have that mindset, Apple was a logical candidate to be on the list..." https://t.co/dM8OcYvjJv
Organigram's Sanity Deal Boosts EU Reach, Buy Pullback
Macro: Organigram acquires Sanity, expands into EU; Key: 93% vote, BAT financing, 68.6% LTM rev, positive EBITDA; Risks: closing risks, earnout; Trade: buy on pullback — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Most Stocks Slump, SPY Barely Down—Favor Index Investing
Lot of people are are down 30-40-50%. But $SPY is still below 10%, hence majority of your investment should be in index.
Down $142K, Still Buying and Holding Long-Term
We are down $142K in our investment portfolio since the beginning of 2026. What are we doing about it?? Continuing to buy more and stay invested for the long term.
AmEx Secures NFL Deal, Boosting Revenue Outlook
Macro: AmEx wins NFL payments deal replacing Visa; Key: exclusive card perks, new co‑branded card & international reach; Risk: marketing ROI/FX; Trade: buy AXP on expected revenue lift. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Trust Your Research, Not Borrowed Judgement
Don’t borrow judgement. The reason why we spend hundreds of hours analyzing a business is to thoroughly understand it. The purpose of the research is to build confidence in our assumptions. The valuation then dictates what the return those assumptions will...
Patience Pays: Years of Average Returns Can Yield Sudden Wealth
The hardest part of achieving a great long-term investment track record is over half the time your returns will look average. You can go years where it feels like you are working hard for mediocre returns. Then all of a...
Buy Quality, Not the Deepest Discounts, During Sell‑offs
During sell-offs, people rush into whatever has dropped the most. Down 60%? Must be a deal. But a bad business down 60% is still a bad business. Quality matters more when everything is falling. Buy the companies that will come...
Buy a Dollar for Fifty Cents with NCAV Investing
"Net current asset value (NCAV) investing is valuation by liquidation logic." What if you could buy $1 for 50 cents? That’s the logic behind NCAV investing, valuing a company as if it were liquidated today.
40‑Day, 5% Pullback Guarantees No Bear Market
Very interesting stat from @StovallCFRA on @CNBCTheExchange with @LesliePicker today. When it takes >40 days for the S&P 500 to have a mild 5% pullback, it has never moved into a bear market. https://t.co/9Yjk8jEYOD
Tech Valuations Bottom, GPU Prices Surge, Growth Opportunities
Risk/reward seems attractive: Token consumption accelerating, GPU per hour rental prices going vertical and Tech valuations are broadly below their Covid and Deepseek lows. Some high quality secular growth names are at mid single digit multiples on real 27/28 numbers.
Avoiding Mega‑Cap Tech, Holding Energy & Commodities Pays Off
We don’t own what the crowd owns. 🚫📈 ❌ No #Bag7 ❌ No Mega Cap Tech Instead: 🛢️ Energy (XOP) ⚡Utilities (XLU) 💵 USD 🌽 Commodities Result: 📉 Down <1% from highs
Quality Small Caps Outperform Junk Over Four Decades
Over the last ~40 years we've seen a structural outperformance of S&P 600 (profitable small caps) vs Russell 2000 (junky small caps) There are three cyclical peaks: * 1999: Dot Com bubble * 2021: Meme Stock bubble * 2025: AI bubble Speculative junk outperforms late...
Inflation Tax Hits All Assets, Unbalancing ‘Balanced’ Portfolios
If both stocks and bonds can’t catch a bid, the message is simple: inflation risk is a tax on EVERYTHING. That’s why ‘balanced’ can feel unbalanced. https://t.co/TSSid8H3g0
Nvidia's Valuation Drops to S&P 500 Parity After a Decade
$NVDA Nvidia valuation falls to S&P 500 parity for first time in over a decade @seekingalpha GS https://t.co/uI914KMyKJ
Growth Stocks' Market Caps Five Times Value's
Market Caps of Listed Companies by Price to Book, July 1926-December 2025 Since July 1926, the caps of the companies in the low price-to-book (value) portfolio have averaged $1.3 billion, those in the medium portfolio $3.0 billion and those in the...
Even the S&P 500 Can Lose Real Value
$SPY Annualized real returns: 1929 - 1942: -0.9% 1968 - 1982: -0.3% 2000 - 2012: -0.7% Sometimes 'Just buy the S&P 500' doesn't work as well as it has lately.
Stagflation Squeezes Equities: Low Returns, High Volatility
Stagflation is a bad environment for equities, with low (real) returns and high volatility GS Europe https://t.co/QhgQfFdqYh