Investing Is Cooking: Show the Full Flavor, Not Ingredients
A Stock Picker is a Chef Envision you are a Chef hosting a dinner. Mise en place is the French term for having all ingredients measured, chopped, and arranged before cooking. Your guests haven't been told what you are making. They only see the raw ingredients on the counter. A few guests become concerned because they see an ingredient they personally dislike. However, you have made this dish a hundred times. It’s a favorite of yours. You’ve also put your personal mark on it with a pinch of this or a drizzle of that. The guests watch you incorporate the ingredients in specific ways and precise quantities. They may remain skeptical until they finally taste the dish and realize it is delicious. In the same way, outside investors might be skeptical of your portfolio’s ingredients and weightings. They have preconceived notions based on their own experiences, or lack thereof, with a specific industry. They see a standalone ingredient rather than a piece of a larger flavor profile. I’ve jokingly referred to my portfolio like a stew. To outsiders the ingredients don’t make sense, and the dish looks like a pile of slop, but it sure tastes good.
Egg Brand Doubles Whole Foods Share, Expands SKUs
"We're at an average of 9 egg SKUs per door at Whole Foods... We've grown to about half the dollar value of egg sales at Whole Foods; at the IPO, we were about 1/3 of their egg sales... We're at...
Nvidia Overtakes Apple at TSMC, Plus Market Highlights
Today's FREE Edition has more interesting things than can reasonably be expected to fit in a Honda Odyssey: 616: Nvidia Dethrones Apple at TSMC, Coase Conjecture and AI Lab Profits, Boots on the Ground vs Panopticon, BART Applied Economics, Apple’s 2025...
Equal‑Weighted Index Holds, Cap‑Weighted Faces 10% Risk
At the same time, the equal-weighted price index remains in a solid uptrend and unlike its cap-weighted sibling is not over its skis from a trend perspective. The broader market is well-grounded from a price, breadth, earnings, and valuation perspective. It’s the...
Software Oversold; Quality Stocks Near Bottom, Ready to Rise
Software is *very* oversold and likely bottoming $IGV Our portfolio has exposure to quality software stocks which have been unfairly caught in the selloff and appear poised for a multi-month run. https://t.co/9W3aDdLK3Q https://t.co/Ursw6tsRqw
Oversold AI, Cybersecurity, Infra Stocks Poised for Rally
AI, cybersecurity and infrastructure software stocks are *very* oversold. When the market volatility subsides, these growth stocks likely to embark on multi-month rally.
Markets Face Redemptions, Housing Woes, and AI Optimism
Animal Spirits: A Wave of Redemptions Geopolitics vs the stock market vs AI Is inflation risk back? Is it time for a correction? The optimistic view on AI The most broken housing market in America The private credit crisis of confidence & more https://t.co/3VV58HRcdq https://t.co/V5eIvRDjMe
HBO Reached 54 Million Domestic Subscribers in 2017
Time Warner FY17 10-K: "At December 31, 2017, Home Box Office had approximately 54 million domestic subscribers, including subscribers to HBO NOW and through Home Box Office’s digital distribution partners." https://t.co/4lw2HM9qU0
Repeatable Alpha Strategies Eventually Lose Edge
"Any repeatable process that generates significant alpha in fundamental investing is going to get competed away." - @GavinSBaker (EP.489) With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @MorningstarInc, and Ridgeline.
Distinguish Initial Large Bets From Growing Positions
New Article There is a massive difference between taking a large initial position and allowing a position to become large. Few investors understand this distinction. https://t.co/hxHNHYqor8
CORD's 3.9% Yield Positions It as Income Play
ShareScope has #CORD on a Forward Dividend Yield of 3.9%; it might work as an Income Portfolio stock. I don't hold.
Geopolitics Threaten Chinese Firms' Access to Western Markets
What I don’t understand is the position of PRC companies. Do they want the headache of dealing with geopolitics? They’re competitive in their own right. If this goes on, Chinese products will be shut out of Western markets.
Most Miss KOSPI’s Memory Chip and Reform Narrative
Pretty much 100% of my timeline is people freaking out about KOSPI KOSPI is a memory chip story. There’s a great structural reform story, too, and it feels like nobody except @smartkarma and shareholder activists are paying attention
US Kills Iran Leaders; War Persists, Oil Spikes
The US just killed Iran's top leaders, but the war isn't ending. The Revolutionary Guard is still fighting, and oil has spiked past $85. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/oiXuHGPp3W
GRV
$GRVY going negative EV again despite governance reform & an activist at majority owner GungHo may lure me back in as Kospi gets gutted https://t.co/G956qY7aXY
Long Reinvestment Runways Fuel Powerful Wealth Compounding
"Reinvestment runway defines long-term compounding potential." The biggest investing edge isn’t timing the market — it’s owning long reinvestment runways. 🚀 Reinvestment runway defines how long a business can compound capital at high returns. The longer the runway, the more powerful the...
Record Volume Hits ACWI After 2% Dip, Model Rotation Suspected
Intriguing, $ACWI (and $28b old dog ETF I rarely think about) saw record volume today. Maybe bc it fell 2%, which is bad but not Code Red.. my guess is a model rotated out of it. We've seen a lot...
Financials Surge, Magnetizing 2024‑25 First‑Half Pivot
Financials rally back to the underbelly of the 2024 and 2025 1H pivot. So far it’s acting like a magnet... $XLF https://t.co/jXBzQnKMxZ
Turned Defensive Tactics Against Misaligned Controllers
"Prophylactic measures" are typically what boards use to defend against activists (e.g., poison pills, staggered boards, etc). With $MAPS I flipped the script. In the presence of controllers with misaligned incentives, I had to deploy prophylactic defenses to box the board...
Deal Sets Us Up as DTC Market Leader
David Ellison: “This deal positions us to be one of the leading competitors in the DTC space, to really accelerate our growth and to achieve scale in DTC… It is a primary goal for the business.”
US Valuation Premium Shrinks as Global Earnings Surge
Global markets are at or near all-time highs, supported by strong earnings growth around the world. The rest of the world is outperforming the US on a combination of better earnings growth, competitive payout ratios, and lower valuations. As such,...
Quality Small Caps Outperform Junkier Russell 2000 Over
This chart plots the ratio of the S&P 600 Index divided by the Russell 2000 Index from the early 1990s to today. Russell 2000 = 2000 “small caps” by market cap, inclusion rules are mostly mechanical and allow many...
Energy Cheap and Underweight; Oil Upswing Could Boost Index
This chart shows Energy’s weight in the S&P 500 over time in two dimensions: * Blue line = Energy’s market cap share * Red line = Energy’s forward earnings share Current readings (Mar 2): * Market cap share ≈ 3.4% * Forward earnings share ≈...
Limited Borrowing? Rethink Sharpe Ratio for Fund Selection
Selecting mutual funds is one of the most important jobs investors face. But using sharpe ratio may not be the answer if you have a limited ability to borrow. By @ebasilico https://t.co/x4TGFkaBHH https://t.co/d7tayubSd2
AI Capex Boom Outpaces Global GDP, Prompting US Shift
“There’s just not enough GDP to support all of them.” @dampedspring returns to @excessreturnpod to break down the funding test behind the AI Capex boom, how the Iran conflict is being priced, and why he’s shifted away from US assets. https://t.co/wooKnQeQKH
Submit by March 5 to Unlock Simplified, Tax‑Efficient US Equity ETF
Final Call: Advisors must submit portfolios & tax lot data by March 5 to participate in the launch of the Alpha Architect U.S. Equity 3 ETF (AAUA) Don’t miss the opportunity to: - Simplify complex client portfolios - Reduce tax friction through a...
Only Log in to Buy, Not to Watch
Don’t even bother logging into your investment accounts if you’re not buying more stocks. You’re just going to make yourself feel worse and selling will only hurt you in the long term.
Ignore Market Noise; Stick to Long‑term Plan
If you're not retired: > stop obsessing over share prices, it's just noise > stop stressing about daily market moves, they don't matter > stop panicking over short term drops, they are normal Just stick to your long term plan. Stick to your allocation....
VITL's Low-Return Claim Clashes with $100M Buyback
A slide from the $VITL December 2025 Investor Day, which ranked capital returns as their lowest investment priority; two months later, announced a $100 million repurchase authorization, which would require debt issuance. https://t.co/IAg2QWKbrE
Weekly Safety Checklist for New Buying Decisions
a weekly glance at our "Is It Safe for New Buying?" checklist... $TSX $QQQ $SPX $IWM https://t.co/ryem6Ua7LX
Stocks Outpace Inflation, Preserve Purchasing Power
In my opinion, this is the most compelling chart for being a stock market investor. Over the last 50 years: -US Inflation: up 6x -S&P 500 dividends: up 21x -S&P 500 total return: up 265x Over the long run, stocks trounce inflation and protect your...
Wholesale Options Signals Reveal Crucial Market Fundamentals
Even if you're not an active single name options market participant, ignoring wholesale the signals & pricing in those markets can be tantamount to ignoring fundamental developments.
VSNT Q4: Lower Dividend, $1B Repo Boost, Upside Potential
Just gonna repost this $VSNT thread alongside the 4Q25 results. Dividend a bit lower than I expected ($0.375, ~4.5% yield on close), $1B repo authorization is a nice carrot tho. ST upside from staying below R2K incl. threshold by 4/30 rank day. IR...
NKTR Emerges as Biotech's Most Undervalued Gem
More cases of Kaposi sarcoma for OX40. OX. 40. Is. Done. $SNY still projecting $3-$5B peak sales for Amli is a pipe dream. This value is going to $NKTR. $NKTR is, IMO, the single most undervalued name I...
Oil Spikes Signal Deflationary Shock, Not Inflation
Everyone assuming the Oil move is inflationary. An Oil spike historically more often than not precedes equity tail events and economic recessions. Why? Speed of Oil move is deflationary shock.
19‑Year Market Trend Signals Immediate Investment Implications
This 19-Year Chart of Stock Markets Really Matters Right Now (here's why) https://t.co/TEzNGq0NTV [VIDEO] #stockmarket #SP500 #dowjones
Warner Bros. Discovery Reopens Discovery+ Subscriptions Globally
WBD Q4 FY25 call: "If you remember back when we merged into Warner Bros. Discovery, we were trying to shut down Discovery Plus. The fact of the matter is we still have millions of viewers... We have already opened up...
WBD Falls Far Short of FY25 Revenue Targets
FY23 financial projections from the Warner Media / DISCA deal. Fast forward to FY25: WBD generated total revenues of $37.3 billion, with $10.9 billion from DTC, EBITDA of $8.7 billion, and FCF of $3.1 billion. Missed every one of their financial projections...
Manufacturing Rebounds, but Core PPI Surges Unexpectedly
Manufacturing is finally reviving, but core PPI just jumped 0.8% in a month when economists expected 0.3%. Services inflation refuses to budge. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/4QiEXL6LgZ
Bank Sector Yields Surge Above 5%, Top Three Near 6%
Bank stocks annual div yield (as at 2 March) post-4Q2025 earnings. All except Alliance, AM will pay interim div in March 2026. Top 3 highest (2026 estimates): •Bank Islam: 6.22% •*CIMB: 5.92% •RHB: 5.91% =Average Sector DY: 5.10% (10 banks) [*incl Special Div 7sen]
Outperformance Depends on People, Not Just Processes
So good by @GavinSBaker In Michael Jordan’s second to last year with the Chicago Bulls, Jerry Krause, GM of the Bulls said, “Listen players don’t win championships, organizations do. It isn’t just Jordan or Pippen. It’s how we scout, draft,...
Gundlach Urges Investors to Shift From Dollar to Foreign Assets
Jeff Gundlach: “My recommendation is that US Dollar based investors should be investing in foreign markets in foreign currencies. Because the US Dollar appears to be in a long-term bear market” https://t.co/b2PwOxuvyI
Trend Following and Indexing Share Same Drawdown Reality
These types of comments always amuse me... "...trend following strategies typically have long flat or negative periods that test discipline. Past profitability doesn't protect you from a multi-year drawdown." So let's consider Buy & Hold or indexing between 1968 - 1982 where...
Berkshire's $1.3B Cost Basis vs $200B Amex Valuation
Berkshire's cost basis on American Express is $200 billion and Berkshire's owns ~22%. https://t.co/3YV1MjYH1A
Cyclicals at 25% Signal Upcoming Market Inflection
Each time this cluster reached ~44%, it represented extreme global concentration in growth/quality sectors. Historically, that 24–25% zone has marked secular lows in cyclicals/value share. When financials/energy/materials are ~25%: * They are structurally under-owned. * Valuations tend to be compressed. * Expectations are low. In 2000...
LEI/CEI Ratio Hits 60‑Year Low, Forecasting Recession
Every recession since 1960 has been preceded by a material downturn in this ratio. Today’s reading is squarely in that danger zone. These charts show the Leading Economic Index (LEI) against the Coincident Economic Index (CEI). The shaded bars...
0.78 Ratio Signals Modest Value Edge, Not Explosion
The blue line is Forward P/E of Value divided by Growth: * 1.0 = Value and Growth trade at the same forward P/E. * <1.0 = Value trades cheaper than Growth. * Lower = wider valuation spread favoring Growth. Historical 3–5 Year Returns: * When...
ETF 351 Seeding Risks: Top 10 Mistakes Highlighted
Lots of chatter on ETFs being seeded via 351. Makes sense-we've seen a large increase in activity (and press e.g., @justinaknope @denitsa_tsekova). Here is an older article that talks about the top 10 ways to screw these up. https://t.co/pcyPnnrYtg Note: Economic substance...
Spot the Hidden Great Rotation Before It Hits
Everyone’s chasing last year’s winners. The real move is under the surface. Leadership is rotating. Capital is rotating. By the time it’s obvious, it’s late. The Great Rotation is accelerating. Here’s what most investors are missing: https://t.co/Q38nu61vBB
Berkshire Will Buy Back Shares Below Intrinsic Value
Greg Abel: "Share repurchases are another important capital allocation option. We will buy back Berkshire shares when they trade below our estimate of intrinsic value, conservatively determined, ensuring that repurchases enhance per-share value for continuing owners."