Japanese Portfolio Managers Barred From Software Investments
“An interesting thing I heard is that some Japanese Portfolio Managers are being actively told company-wide not to touch anything software or IT related in the broad sense, at all” - @InvestInJapan
U.S. Debt Outpaces Growth, Threatening Investor Portfolios
Jerome Powell warns the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path, with national debt growing faster than the economy. Investors, learn how this affects the stock market, portfolio risk, and long-term wealth building. Smart value investing can protect your financial...
Goldman Holds 7600 SPX Target, Cuts Loom
Goldman sticking with a 7600 YE SPX target... I give it 4 weeks before we start seeing estimate cuts across the street https://t.co/DsTzT8zbEO
Small‑cap Slump Signals Delayed Bull Market Confirmation
Russell 2000 down 2.3%. Small caps are the canary. They need cheap credit, domestic demand, and labor stability. They have none of those right now. If you're waiting for small cap leadership to confirm a bull market, you'll be waiting a while. https://t.co/mDOKLhcosE
Market Tricks Beginners: Luck Isn't Skill, Double‑Down Costs
The greatest trick the market plays on beginners is making you think luck is skill. It waits for you to double or triple down on your next bet and then it teaches you your first lesson.
Invest with Built‑In Protection: Prioritize Margin of Safety
Seth Klarman: “The most important thing in investing is to have a margin of safety.” Takeaway: Buy with protection built in. Most investors lose money before they even buy.
High Conviction Doesn't Require Massive Portfolio Bets
I've always been a conviction investor, but I have evolved in how I define "high conviction" and how it is expressed within my portfolio. When most investors hear high conviction, they think of high concentration. To them, concentration means making...
China Tech Lagged US Markets Amid Dilution and Governance Issues
Performance since 2013: KWEB: +13% QQQ: +896% Positive interpretations for China tech: - Strong USD and strong US equities - Index construction sub-par Negative interpretations: - Heavy dilution - Related party transactions / leakage - Limited capital returns (until recently) https://t.co/8eQeEK0yx7
Mispriced $MLCI Offers Second Chance at $5
Sometimes Mr. Market hands you a mulligan. I got clipped tendering $MLCI from the wrong zip code, then got a second swing at $5.00 after the board itself paid $9.43. I wrote up the mispricing, the mechanics, and...
VIX Spikes Often Precede Stock Rebounds—Still Just Probabilities
The $VIX increased 48% this week, the 21st biggest weekly spike ever. What has happened in the past following the biggest $VIX spikes? Stocks have tended to bounce back with above-average forward returns. Does this always happen? No. There are no certainties in markets,...
New Lindy Effect ETF Targets 50‑Year‑Old Companies
New filing for a Lindy Effect ETF.. which will only hold companies that are over 50yrs old. Some other ones incl Insurance ETF (haven't seen one of those in a long time). New issuer I believe too. https://t.co/c1L9kTa7hU
Market Ignoring Looming Risks as SPY Nears Peak
SPY is 2.4% from its all-time high. In the middle of a war. With oil spiking. With yields surging. The market hasn't priced in the worst case. It hasn't even priced in the base case. That's the scariest part. https://t.co/d7MxjrSyrG
Value Investing Gains Momentum Amid AI Market Rout
This week in value: Berkshire Hathaway 2025 Annual Report (BH) Tom Gayner – 2025 Letter (Markel) GMO – Year End Letters 2025 (GMO) Icahn Enterprises L.P. 2025 Q4 (Icahn) Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel on resuming buyback program: I absolutely talked to Warren (CNBC) Could Value...
Cyclical Job Loss Spreads to Education and Health
Over the last 12 months basically every cyclical industry but construction and leisure/hospitality has negative job growth. The new news today is the negative Education/Health, but the cyclical economy has been weak for a long time. https://t.co/TdUz4KvRxm
All Assets Falling Signals Liquidity Crunch, Not Rotation
The 10-year yield has risen four consecutive sessions to 4.14%. Stocks down. Bonds down. Oil up. Gold down. When everything sells off together, it's not a rotation. It's a liquidity event. https://t.co/6whtUyh3CH
Invest for Few Big Winners, Sell the Rest
During a lifetime you will have 10-20 big winners and hundreds or thousands that didn’t live up to your expectations. Long-term investing success is capturing those 10-20 monsters while also understanding 95% of what you own will deserve to be...
Middle East Ceasefire Could Lower Oil, Ease Inflation Risks
A major Middle East shift could ease geopolitical risk and send oil prices lower after a ceasefire. The implications for inflation, consumers, and markets ahead. 🟢 Open https://t.co/7zkGP8J4td
Analyze the Business First, Not Just Charts
Charlie Munger: “You must value the business in order to value the stock.” Takeaway: Analyze operations before analyzing charts. Most investors analyze charts. The best investors analyze businesses first.
March Beats October, Delivers Positive S&P Return
March is like October's little brother, but he does average a positive SPX return... BofA https://t.co/jFaPf9gsOb
Contrarian Opportunity? Freee 4478 JP Faces Unexpected Negativity
Very surprised by the negativity surrounding Freee 4478 JP. I'm either completely wrong, or in it's a highly contrarian buy. https://t.co/ihtyiQ5SFt
KOSPI's Memory Chip Weight
What is he on about? KOSPI is like 50% memory chip exposure and earnings estimates have gone up. The people day-trading are local retail investors, but they’re still mostly focused on US tech. https://t.co/ebX1YOmoN2
PBM Critics Overlook Their Owners' Low, Stagnant Margins
So I've read a few long essays on how abusive pharmaceutical benefit managers and group purchasing organizations are, and they all make a strong case. And then I look at the companies that own PBMs, and their margins are a)...
Investors Rotating From US Tech to Commodities and Bonds
"We are in the first phase of a great rotation away from the US FANG+ and related stocks, semiconductor, and AI software companies towards oil & gas, utilities, emerging market, and resource stocks, and Treasury bonds." - Marc Faber
Japanese Stocks Surge; Fund Gains 6.7% Amid Yen Drag
February was another strong month for the Japanese equity market and for Senjin Capital Fund I. The Fund’s unit price increased 6.7% in AU$ terms, despite a ~3% FX drag from the weakening Yen. The Fund has now returned 48% net of...
Record Large‑Cap vs Small‑Cap Spread Signals Hidden Opportunities
“The spread between large-caps and small-caps is the widest we’ve ever seen.” Rob Arnott joins us on @excessreturnpod to discuss historic valuation gaps, AI expectations, investing in periods of conflict and why the biggest opportunities may be where investors aren’t looking....
Dollar Rises, Treasuries Fall: Safety Flight Redefined
"The US Dollar may still have moved up after the war started, but the price of US Treasuries went down. Flight-to-safety and flight-to-quality aren’t what they used to be."
Probabilistic GDOT Analysis Shows Inevitable Math Outcomes
Just published a writeup on $GDOT, the math is inevitable. (I am being playful, the math is probabilistic. DYODD, see disclaimers in my post, linked below:) https://t.co/ZjGJRg0ROs
Novo Nordisk and Weightwatchers Extend Collaboration to Germany
Novo Nordisk expands partnership with Weightwatchers to Germany. Dream team. Love to see it. $NVO $WW
Oil Spikes, yet Inflation Expectations Stay Flat.
Oil prices are surging, but inflation expectations aren't moving. Bond markets still pricing in a world that may no longer exist. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/6C4VK744Ql
Excluding Autocracies Boosts Emerging Market ETF Returns
ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION: What happens when you take the MSCI EM Index and start kicking out autocratic countries with low freedom scores (eg China, Russia) and use that excess budget to load up on freer countries? You crush the benchmark....
Small‑cap Surge Signals Regime Shift Away From Growth
S&P 600 up 9% YTD. S&P 500 flat. Tech lagging. Energy leading. Value crushing growth. This isn't a head fake. This is a regime change. The small-cap rotation is real and it's getting started. https://t.co/AYVusIGbRd
Third Point Secures New, Undisclosed Stake in Generac
$GNRC Dan Loeb’s THIRD POINT has a big new stake in Generac Holdings (GNRC). NEW, previously undisclosed CONFIRMED
Learning Co‑Investing Secrets by Watching Benchmark’s Five Partners
In 1999-2000 Craig McCaw asked me to spend a lot of time working in the Benchmark offices on Sand Hill Road to find areas where co-investment was possible. I never learned so much, as Yogi Berra famously said, "just by...
STUB Trades at Deep Discount Despite Strong Margins
Took a $STUB starter this morning. At ~$9/sh, EV of ~$3.4B represents ~8x 2026 EBITDA guide MP & ~22x RR FCF. Regulatory resale (~10% GMS) risks appear discounted. This is deeply discounted to any reasonable comp set for a scaled marketplace with...
Exploring SpaceX IPO, Covid Legacy, iPod's Music Revolution
✍️ Longform links: a look at a potential SpaceX IPO, the long-term health impacts of Covid, and how the iPod changed our relationship with music. https://t.co/6bSrheJuzD image: https://t.co/vMSvzVUcJK https://t.co/8bTwTklNAR
US Stocks Maintain Record 15-Year Outperformance Stretch
Over the past 14 months, International stocks have outperformed US stocks by 27%, the widest margin since 1993-94. But zoom out. On a rolling 5-year basis, US stocks have outperformed for 15 years running. This is by far the longest stretch of US...
True Quality Endures Beyond Changing Conditions
Quality is an idea, a piece of artwork, a business, a relationship, or even a book that keeps working (providing value) even after conditions change over time. Quality is an interesting topic because it’s one of the most overused terms...
SpaceX's $1.75T IPO Dream Defies $20B Revenue Reality
SpaceX provably has revenues of less than $20bn and loses money after the merger with xAI, but is targeting a $1.75 TRILLION IPO. So FTAV explored how Musk might try to pull off what could be the biggest bagholder operation...
FPIs Net Buy 22,000 Cr Equity In
FPIs bought 22,000 cr in equity in Feb. (And uhem, they sold 17K cr. on Monday + Wednesday) https://t.co/bmXFAXJ1aZ
Price Determines a Stock’s Investment Merit
"The price [of a security] is frequently an essential element, so that a stock may have investment merit at one price level but not at another." ~ Ben Graham Price changes everything.
Korea's CompanyGuide Mirrors Japan's Handbook, Use Chrome Translate
Korea's version of the "Japan Company Handbook" is essentially FnGuide's CompanyGuide website. Not available in English but you can you use Translate in Google Chrome. https://t.co/I0HU3TxRNN
Kaspi's 9% Yield Highlights Strong Moat Despite Accounting Opacity
Kaspi now yields 9%, for what undoubtedly a very moaty business (no views on its accounting) https://t.co/EuZ6Ogfo3P
Korea’s Chip Output Drops, Shifts to High‑Bandwidth Memory
Didn’t realize how much Korean chip production has fallen in the past few months, as it’s shifting towards high bandwith memory. Source: Robeco https://t.co/I5YOwPS4OL
Google Trends Predict HelloFresh Revenue Decline Ahead
Google trends for HelloFresh has been tracking at ~20% year-over-year declines for the last two years. It was a pretty solid leading indicator for revenue declines. But look what’s happening now 👀 2026 guidance to be revealed on March 18 could...
War Won’t Sustain Defense Stock Multiples, Says Analyst
Lockheed Martin up 6% Monday. Down 1.3% today. The defense trade isn't fading because the war is ending. It's fading because the market is starting to realize war doesn't fix earnings multiples. https://t.co/xXNtusNgkE
U.S. Large‑Cap Stocks Overpriced by 176% Historically
Large caps are extremely expensive, well beyond 3 standard deviations above average, but back a little from last year's all-time high. These two charts come from long-run valuation work (Advisor Perspectives / Crestmont style datasets) and show how expensive the U.S....
Fed Stuck: No Cuts Amid Rising Stagflation
The Fed is trapped. Oil at $81 → inflation rising. Stocks selling off → growth slowing. Yields above 4% → no room to cut. Stagflation isn't a theory. It's a Tuesday. Rate at 3.5-3.75%. Next meeting March 17. They will do nothing. And that's the problem....
Market Values Future Risk over Current Earnings
MongoDB: Revenue up 27%. Beat on earnings. Rule of 40. Record cash flow. Stock: Down 22%. Why? Two top execs left. Guidance light. The market doesn't care what you did. It cares what you're about to lose. https://t.co/u0W819CWth
Growth Dominance Hits 30‑Year High, May Be Peaking
We are moving away from the most extreme growth-over-value cycle peak in modern history. On a relative basis, the expensive vs. value ratio is now back to the 2021 Meme stock peak, which was then higher than at any...
Company Completes $400M Share Buyback by December 2025
"As announced on October 2, 2025, the Board authorized the repurchase of $400 million of outstanding shares of Class A and Class B common from October 1, 2025, through October 1, 2026… The $400 million repurchase program was completed in...