Big Gains Come From Rare Deep Market Corrections
Since 1950, the average drawdown in the S&P 500 has been 14% in a calendar year, and drawdowns of at least 10% have occurred in 37 of the past 75 years. 20%+ corrections have occurred in 11 out of the past 75 years. 30%+ corrections have occurred in 4 of the past 75 years. You get one or two big opportunities per decade. You never know when the big corrections are coming because it's the surprise factor that breaks the market. This is when the big money is made. The greatest opportunity is always at the depths of uncertainty. https://t.co/PVZ8Rke1YB
Missing 10 Best S&P Days Halves Your Returns
Every time the market goes down, I'm always reminded of this chart. It was created by Visual Capitalist in 2023. It shows the impact on an investor's return by simply missing the 10 best days of the S&P 500's returns...
Equities' Future Value Lies in Expected Cash Flows
One of the best articulations of the long-term economics question in equities right now. We sleep on a bed of prosperity lined with the expectation of future cash flows.
2026 Equity Risk Premium Update for Practitioners Released
The equity risk premium (ERP) is an essential ingredient in hurdle rates in corporate finance, discount rates in valuation and expected returns in financial planning. In 2009, I pulled together everything I know about the ERP, in a paper that...
Capital‑light Models Boost Returns on Reinvested Cash
"Capital-light models amplify the power of reinvested cash flows." 💡 Want your money to work harder without tying up massive capital? Capital-light investment models are game-changers.l
Higher Stock Returns Reward Higher Risk
The only reason why stocks have a higher long-term return than bonds and cash is to compensate investors for taking on the greater risk of uncertainty, volatility and drawdowns along the way. Without this risk there would be no higher reward....
Trim the Bulk, Let Outliers Drive Returns
The 80/20 rule is just a Power Law in disguise. Often, in a portfolio: 📈 20% of your holdings will drive 80% of your returns. 📉 80% of your stress will come from 20% of your "average" bets. The secret to long-term success? Cutting...
Tech Gap, AI Disruption, and Defense Supercycle Insights
We covered a lot of ground this week on @excessreturnpod with new interviews featuring Jim Paulsen, Vitaliy Katsenelson, and Joseph Shaposhnik. @CultishCreative and I highlight the best moments and break down the biggest lessons. https://t.co/Hklp9wx0tH • The growing gap between tech and the...
Foreign Value Stocks Cheap Due to Lack of Ownership
Foreign value stocks are cheap but nobody owns any, which is probably why they are cheap, which is probably why nobody owns any. https://t.co/xW57r2cQMq via @followMFS https://t.co/CPa6Gwx7K8
Vanguard Predicts 4.8% Annual Return for US Large Caps
Vanguard forecasts US large caps to return 4.8% annually over the next decade. Large-cap growth: 3.9% https://t.co/THci6XvvJc
Shift4 Payments: 7x FCF and 20%+ Growth
New writeup: Shift4 Payments: A Fintech Compounder Trading Like a Melting Ice Cube 7x free cash flow for a business compounding at 20%+ $FOUR Link in bio https://t.co/R6SWOw4hoQ
UBS Projects 9.5% Total Return for AV by 2028
'Investors' Chronicle' p39 this week mentions UBS expectation of a 9.5% yield from #AV. for 2028, comprising Dividend payment and Share Buybacks.
Group Investments by Risk, Not Asset Class, for Smoother Returns
How a "total portfolio approach" that groups investments by risk and performance characteristics (rather than asset class) could lead to a smoother ride for investors (@JasonKephart | @MorningstarInc) More curated articles on investment planning this #WeekendReading: https://t.co/L80cXNYxuT
Invest Early, Retire Richer: 10 Years Beats 25
This is crazy: If you are 35 and start investing $5k/yr and stop at 60, you will have ~$431,754 (8%/yr assumption) But if you are 25, start investing $5k/yr and stop at 35, you will have ~$615,580 at 60 (8%/yr assumption) $75k less...
Invest by Following Crowds Selectively, Seek Misunderstood Resilient Niches
As Charles Mackay observed in 1841, "Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one." We are social creatures whose...
SEC Filings Reveal Insider Truth Others Overlook
Reading SEC filings that clarify an inside view others remain willfully blind to... how's your Saturday going?
IREN Valued at 5
$IREN 2028 Estimates: - Revenue $4B - EBITDA $3.1B $16.6B market cap, means $IREN trades 5x 2028 EBITDA. What is a fair multiple for $IREN?
Diversify Beyond Equities: Gold, Capital Efficiency Boost Models
Yes, we are overweight equities, but it is the other stuff that has really helped our models. @sonusvarghese wrote this back in August on how we were thinking about gold, capital efficiency, and managed futures in a portfolio.
Small‑Cap Value Beats Growth as Boring Sectors Rise
Small-cap growth dominated for years on speculation and unprofitable names. That trade is stalling. Q4 2025: small-cap value quietly outperformed growth for the first time in years. Insurance. Regional banks. Business services. The boring stuff is waking up. @InfraCap @JDHatfield_ICAP break it down: https://t.co/atAM4Pmj2y
Preserve Capital: Reallocate and Lock in Profits
It’s important to reallocate and manage your portfolio correctly as your positions grow. A lot of retail investors fail to crystallize profits. Manage your money correctly and remember the first rule is always preserve capital. Follow @thelonginvestor #investsmart #howtoinvest #stockmarkettips
HIMS Poised to Be Top 2026 Market Opportunity
$HIMS at $15 in 2026 will prove to be one of the best opportunities in the market this year. 💪🏻🚀
Markets Crash Hard; Stick to Strategy and Keep Cash
During Dot Com crash (2000-2002) the S&P 500 dropped ~49%. During Financial Crisis (2007-2009) market dropped ~57%. During 1973-1974 bear market, it dropped 48%. We don’t just go up all the time. During bad times, you have to stick to your job &...
Great Returns Can Hide Dangerous Stock Concentration
François Rochon is a well known investment manager who has compounded at ~15% annualized for 30 years (!) In 2002 though he was much more obscure. A single stock was 20% of his portfolio. Below he shares his thoughts on...
Buffett & Munger Reveal True Cost of Equity
Most investors misunderstand the cost of equity. Below is the most explicit Buffett has ever been on his cost of equity... BUT the real insights come from Charlie Munger's push back and Buffett's Punch Card Idea ⬇️Link⬇️
Value Stocks Outperform Even in AI-Driven Market
Value investing is alive and well. The indices (S&P & Russell) have cap, sector and factor-selection biases that mask the performance of classic investment strategies. Buying a cross-sectional (sector-neutral basket) of cheap stocks has outperformed over time, and even during...
DLO’s Fundamentals Soar Despite 64% Price Plunge
$DLO - Stock Price -64% 🔴 - EBITDA +595% 🟢 - Gross Profit +517% 🟢 - Payment Volumes +1,616% 🟢 “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
Markets Enter Regime Change, Not Crash, Amid Slow Repricing
$SPY at 2026 lows. Dow below 47K. The "buy the dip" crowd has gone very quiet. This is what a regime change looks like. Not a crash. Just a slow, grinding repricing of risk. https://t.co/p01B1V5aNG
Karat Packaging Posts Record Q4 Sales, Boosts Profit
Solid report from small/micro Karat Packaging $KRT, a specialty distributor and manufacturer of environmentally friendly, disposable foodservice products. A way to play the growth in food delivery businesses like Grubhub, Uber Eats, DoorDash etc and take-out. Has a small ongoing buyback. Fourth Quarter...
Intangibles Outvalue Factories; Investors Must Adapt
Intangible assets—things like brand reputation, proprietary knowledge, and organizational capabilities—have become more valuable than physical factories and equipment...how are investors capturing this information? by @larryswedroe https://t.co/CW1mUsiweK https://t.co/Hu32LLmXw8
Public Record Undermines Lazy Valuation, Raises Premium Bid Stakes
New on $MAPS: I think the public record is now strong enough to reject lazy, tape-anchored valuation—and strong enough to make a future “premium” bid answer much harder questions than management might like. Linked below. 1/2 https://t.co/ApS7y2tctJ
Smart Strategies to Diversify Concentrated Stock Positions
My conversation with Wes Gray (@alphaarchitect) & Brent Sullivan (@TaxAlphaInsider) on how to handle concentrated stock positions. We cover: • 351 to ETF conversions • Tax managed long/short • Direct indexing • Exchange funds 🍎 Apple: https://t.co/8EyAQJRS2b 🍏 Spotify: https://t.co/2KzvgNXoiD 📺 YouTube: https://t.co/8ibUEisaZM
Stocks Were Once Held for Years, Not Days
Im so old, I recall the average stock holding time period was several years https://t.co/bi8akmSzNq
Buying Now Equals Holding All Along, No Extra Gain
Wrong analysis. For example, If person sitting on cash invests on Monday then from Monday evening onwards he is in the same position as the one who was holding the same stock all through. There is no additional benefit in buying...
Time Horizon, Not Volatility, Determines Investment Risk
The biggest risk in investing isn’t volatility. It’s a short time horizon. Worst S&P 500 annualized returns since 1928: 1 year: -44% 5 years: -13% 10 years: -2% 20 years: +2% 30 years: +8% The longer you stay invested, the smaller the risk of a bad outcome. https://t.co/E6zeCB4Ir8
Age‑Based Stock Rule Costs More Than 60/40
Most investors follow a rule nobody ever properly tested: subtract your age from 100, put the rest in stocks. A new Yale study finally ran the numbers. Following that rule costs the equivalent of 2% of lifetime consumption. A static 60/40...
Japan's Corporate Overhaul Fuels Small‑cap Upside, Software Bounce
Interview with Jamie Halse of Senjin Capital. - Japan is in the midst of a corporate transformation - Significant upside in the small cap segment - Hitachi, Nintendo and Open House: better-managed companies in Japan - Software stocks are beaten down, IT services...
VIEs Aren’t Simple: Mainland Investment Doesn’t Guarantee Safety
1/ Michael Burry made the argument that VIEs are fine because Mainland Chinese invest in them as well I think there's more nuance to it than that
Size Positions by Risk, Quality, Not Just Upside
Position sizing is more art than science. I don't just size based on upside potential. I think about business quality, how bad things could get if I'm wrong, and how likely the thesis is to play out. The upside matters,...
US Stock Market $1 Trillion Cheaper—Rethink Your Strategy
CHANGE your investing mindset: 🇺🇸 The US stock market nearly $1 trillion less expensive today.
MELI Plunges 35% Despite Booming Growth Metrics
MELI is down 🔻35% from its 52-week high, meanwhile: • 25+ quarter of >30% revenue growth • 83 million unique active buyers (+24%) • Total payment volume of $83B (+42%) And now trading at its lowest valuation ever.
Our Portfolios Cheapened, Outperformed as Market Overvalued
"We’ve been operating in what we see as an anomalous market environment for the past two years; specifically, the momentum-driven U.S. market has been one of the most extreme in history. [This] has also created compelling company-specific opportunities moving forward. [O]ur portfolios’...
Record Hedge Levels Signal Potential Upside Rally
This chart, which has been doing the rounds, shows one of the most hedged equity markets in years. That usually means fear is already priced in, and the risk asymmetry increasingly favors upside surprises rather than further panic selling. This chart...
Eos Energy’s Ambitious Targets Clash With Execution Lag
Eos Energy Enterprises ⚡ 🔋 🇺🇸 $EOSE +244% 3Y 🟢 -61% 3M 🔴 🔴 🔴 - Non-Existent Margins - $702M Backlog - 116% 2028 Revenue CAGR - 234% 2028 EBITDA Increase - Demanding Valuation - 33% Below Consensus Price Target Strong outlook, but execution has struggled. Can the company deliver...
Buffett Chooses Stocks Over Real Estate for Liquidity
Investing legend Warren Buffett explains why he often prefers the stock market over real estate. Stocks can be bought or sold in seconds, while real estate deals can take months of negotiations. A powerful lesson in value investing, smart capital...
Master Industry DD in 5 Minutes with Three Key Questions
A 5-minute industry DD framework for any new ticker: ✅ Geography: Is the competition local or global? ✅ Entrants: How high is the "Wall" (Barriers to Entry)? ✅ Profitability: Why is it what it is? (Cyclical vs. Structural) If you can't answer the questions...
60/20/20 Beats Traditional 60/40 with Gold, International
It has been my thesis for the past 5 years that the “new” 60/40 is more like a 60/20/20. To illustrate this the chart below shows that a hypothetical 60/20/20 portfolio, allocated as noted in the chart, could have sharply...
Accelerated Buyback Could Boost $RELY Long-Term Price
Since you have a lot of free time on your hands now @matt_oppy, I would suggest running some quick numbers (can even have Claude do it for you) on what an accelerated buyback program could mean for the long-term share...
Don't Forget Dilution: Share Value Beats Company Size
Many investors ignore dilution. But if a company keeps issuing shares, your ownership percentage shrinks over time. Long-term investing isn’t about how big the company gets…it’s about how much each share becomes worth. #investingtips #investingstrategy #investingmindset
Iceye Revenue Doubles to $294M, Targets Another Double
.@Iceye 2025 financials: Revenue doubled, to $294M, & will double again this year; $153M in operating cash flow; EBITDA over $176M; $1.76B in backlog. https://t.co/FaGdnli5TX https://t.co/IqCzJ853gK
Management Quality Trumps Cheap Valuation in Investing
A cheap stock with a bad management team is not a good investment. Valuation means nothing if the people running the business are misallocating capital, chasing the wrong metrics, or treating the company like their personal piggy bank. I look for leaders...