Diversify Beyond 60/40 to Reduce Lifetime Consumption Risk
“Risk is the uncertainty of lifetime consumption.” We sit down with @cullenroche to discuss his new book Your Perfect Portfolio. We start with a basic 60/40 portfolio and then examine, step by step, the case for adding international, factors, gold, private assets, and more. https://t.co/Mzwm8bbPxx
Value Investing Shifts: Beyond Wealth, New Picks, Plateau
This week in value: @GSpier : What Really Counts in Life — Beyond Wealth and Returns @bogumil_nyc Pzena – The Value Stocks to Watch 2026 @PzenaInvstmtMgt ) Semper Augustus 2025 Letter: Cloud Delusions; Value at a Secular Plateau; And – Berkshire Hathaway:...
Floor & Decor Targets 500 U.S. Stores in Eight Years
Floor & Decor FY23 10-K: "We believe there is an opportunity to significantly expand our warehouse-format store base by a low- to mid-teens annual percentage growth rate over the near-to-medium term, reaching at least 500 in the U.S. within approximately eight...
Expect Multiple Severe Bear Markets in Your Investing Career
Bear markets happen more often than many realize, and most people will have to navigate multiple severe downturns during their investing years. https://t.co/3M4SDMlWOY
S&P Near 10‑Month Winning Streak, Needs 30bps Boost
STREAK ON LINE: The S&P 500 is trying to notch its 10th straight positive month on last day of Feb today to secure the 2nd longest streak in the SPY Era (33yrs). It only needs 30bps of gains. Problem is...
Prepare, Don’t Predict: Build Market Flexibility
Howard Marks: “You can’t predict the future. You can prepare for it.” Takeaway: Build flexibility, not forecasts. Stop trying to predict the market. Start preparing for it. 📉➡️📈
Market Misprices IGV Despite Strong AI Potential
The market may be wrong about $IGV, which is down 30% in past few months. Our tech analysts went through and graded stocks for AI vulnerability and AI potential, a select few got green on both (list below) and guess...
GHH Shows Debt Reduction, Attractive Valuation Ahead
#GHH interesting Update with signs of improvement. Net Debt down a little to £28m. ShareScope has fwd p/e 16.9 falling to 14.2 and fwd Divvy 1.8% each of next 2 years, BEFORE 5% jump today. Worth considering. I don't hold.
BBOX Offers 5% Yield, Growth Drivers, No Hold
#BBOX decent statement. Not much Discount to NAV but ShareScope showing fwd Dividend Yield 4.7% rising to 5%; several growth drivers so definitely interesting. I don't hold.
Duolingo Targets 100 M Users Amid Modest Growth
Duolingo 2026 guidance: Revenue growth and EBITDA margin a slight disappointment, but does everything to double daily active users from 50 million to 100 million. 400 million buyback program initiated ✅ Now at 10.8x EV/EBITDA $DUOL
South Korea Single-Stock ETFs Set for Summer Approval
South Korea single-stock ETFs will likely be approved by the summer, just before Interactive Brokers starts offering access https://t.co/WpRK4ten0F.
Korea Faces Speculative Bubbles Approximately Every Five Years
It seems like Korea goes through these speculative bubbles every five years or so https://t.co/jCSmYlbkaj
Questioning the Moat of Japan Company Handbook
The Japan Company Handbook on m-up 3661 JP… not sure whether it’s moaty enough https://t.co/Aqsud8W7VX
FnGuide's Index Business Undervalued Amid Explosive AUM
With its index business now >50% of revenues, FnGuide is becoming a KOSPI market proxy on steroids. But I think the index AUM rising from KRW 14 trillion to 50 at 40%+ incremental margins is still underrated. I'm getting to...
S&P Near Record, Nasdaq Slides, FANG Plunges
The S&P 500 is less than 2% from its all-time high. The Nasdaq 100 is down nearly 5%. The NYSE FANG Index is down 17%. Three indexes. Three very different pictures. Full breakdown with charts: https://t.co/1Skwzjqna3 https://t.co/NAO3m5uBUh
Netflix's Bold Exit Strengthens Long-Term Value
Kudos to management for being willing to walk away. There will be plenty of opportunities over time to keep improving the customer value proposition and the long-term value of the business. This was the right decision by Netflix.
Vox Royalty Secures Aussie Gold
Mngt at @vox_royalty buys a producing Australian #gold asset for <$200 an ounce, an obvious wide margin vs spot. See the Part That Pays from JV, how the company is stacking incremental cash-flowing exposure in pro-jurisdictions, & why stock is...
Russell 2000 Shifts From Tech to Industrial/Defense
Russell 2000 $IWM top 25 holdings. Shows a meaningful shift from early Q4 last year. Top holdings have rotated from speculative tech optionality toward industrial/defense/capex cyclicals over the past few months. https://t.co/c24tFJQjc5
Invest with Fundamentals, Patience, Not Market Noise
Warren Buffett on wealth building: focus on fundamentals, ignore the noise, and evaluate businesses with clarity. Smart investing is about patience, discipline, and knowing what you own. Most investors fail because they chase noise instead of value. 📈
Know the Difference: Choose the Right Fund
If you’re investing and don’t know the difference between: • Index Funds • Mutual Funds • ETFs You might be choosing the wrong one without realizing it. New vid tomorrow is going to breakdown the pros and cons of each so you can pick the...
VITL Plunges 60%, Trades at 10x EV/
$VITL shares down >60% from the August 2025 highs EV down to ~$800 million, it trades at ~10x EV / EBIT
86% of Our Holdings Outperform the S&P 500
CHART OF THE DAY: 86% Of The Names We Own Are Beating SPY https://t.co/aAYyRsV4YB via @hedgeye
Satya Nadella Pivot Saved Microsoft From $5B Loss
Mason Morfit: "The lion's share of credit has to go to Satya Nadella. To state the obvious, he's just been an incredible CEO... The company was losing ~$5 billion a year on this ill-fated devices venture... Satya very quickly pivoted...
LLMs Fail 85% of Investment Tasks, Math Weakness Evident
LLM-driven AI tools are much better with words than with math... at what point is the time to back-check the output calculations more time-consuming than just using established software providers for key investment research and financial planning functions? "Mass market AI...
Nasdaq Bends Index Rules to Lure SpaceX IPOs
Nasdaq is contorting its own index rules to court the IPOs of SpaceX et al, and @thekrazykobra brings the 🔥 https://t.co/ExpsatLZ6h https://t.co/VjWaHmMJYd
Doomer Hype Fuels Clicks, Not Market Moves
Agree, Citrini got a massive debate going and increased subs, but. $IGV, $QQQ up big in past two days. And ETF flows are pouring into US equity ETFs (as usual). It only reinforces my view that doomerism is what sells...
Stay Invested, Avoid Panic for Stock Success
Peter Lynch: “The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.” Takeaway: Staying invested beats reacting emotionally. Most investors don’t fail because they’re wrong — they fail because they panic. 📉
300th Stock Club: Revisiting 13‑stock Legacy, New 10‑year Picks
Our 300th episode of Stock Club has dropped. Mike and I review the 13 stock portfolio from an early show 7 years ago (it has one 24 bagger in it) — and we each pitch three to buy now and...
Semiconductor Index Delivered Over Tenfold Returns Decade‑Long
The PHLX Semiconductor index: ASML, TSMC, Texas Instruments, AMD, Nvidia, NXP, Qorvo, Qualcomm, Applied Materials, Broadcom etc. More than a ten-bagger in the past decade https://t.co/P0OKb3JVYf
Activist Pressure, Not Weak Yen, Drives Real Improvements
Seems to me that the biggest improvements have been in firms: - Shamed into increasing their P/B to 1.0x - Targeted by shareholder activists like Oasis - Already had the right mindset, eg Hitachi / Itochu - Illusory improvement from the weak yen https://t.co/KxTgEB3c9O https://t.co/DoX7UvP2gs
AI Panic Drops Software Stocks, Yet Engineer Demand Rises
Software stocks are cratering on fears AI will destroy their business. Yet job postings for software engineers are up 11% year over year. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/7PaTI6jR9W
Snowflake Beats Estimates, Shows AI-Driven Growth
$SNOW revenue, RPO and guidance came in ahead of consensus and the WSJ headline says company benefiting from AI adoption. This is the point we've been making for several weeks... some infrastructure software businesses are beneficiaries of AI. https://t.co/dX1lJsYfye
Japanese Managers Lack Equity, Limiting Market Discipline
I think reading through Jim Grant's old books with snippets from his newsletter is great market education. You'll get perspective on the current market environment.
Hardware, Cybersecurity Thrive; AI Compresses Software Services
The Goldman Sachs list of AI winners & losers: Supposed winners: - Cloudflare - CrowdStrike - Palo Alto Networks - Oracle - Microsoft - Amazon - Alphabet - Nvidia - TSMC - Micron - Arista Networks - Palantir - Zoom - Vertiv - Eaton - NextEra Energy Supposed losers: - https://t.co/yZK0mvfWhp - Salesforce - DocuSign - Accenture - Duolingo - Workday - SAP - Atlassian - UiPath -...
Small‑cap Rally Signals Leadership Rotation, Not Squeeze
Small caps just hit record highs. While everyone chases mega-cap AI, leadership may already be rotating. That’s not a squeeze. It’s a signal. @JDHatfield_ICAP @InfraCap explain why it matters: https://t.co/11ZhJg1jL3
Mag‑7 Premium Plummets From 100% to 10‑year Low
The Mag-7 used to trade at a 100% premium over the rest of the S&P. It's now collapsed to a 10-year low. Do you realize what's happening?
NVIDIA Projects Tenfold Revenue Surge by FY27
On Q1 FY27 guidance, NVIDIA TTM revenues of ~$250 billion. Three years ago (in Q1 FY24), TTM revenues were $25.9 billion. https://t.co/n7nDwriJvG
Big‑Cap S&P Leaders 50% More Volatile Than Index
The top 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 are 50% more volatile than the S&P 500 itself right now. Important for risk... but more important for alpha right now. https://t.co/yqBR2QU8nK
Flatbed Rejection Spike Signals Bullish Industrial Growth
This is an extreme spike in the SONAR Truckload Rejection Index – Flatbed (STRIF.USA) from 2018–2026. A 40% rejection rate means: * Strong industrial throughput * Tight labor + equipment capacity * Improving pricing power in physical economy * Early/mid expansion phase dynamics It usually leads: *...
Hindenburg Mentions Rarely Signal Imminent Market Bottom
Similar to the November lows, when they all start saying the word Hindenburg often, you know we are close to lows. We've seen 225 Hindenburg Omens since 1970 and if you look closely you'll see the great majority of them...
Depressed Oil‑Gold Ratio Signals Multi‑Year Energy Outperformance
Oil peaked in 2008 at $140 and has fallen sideways since to ~$65 today. In hard-money gold terms, 1 ounce buys 100 barrels of oil. Oil has been deflating for decades. The only time it was cheaper was 2020 when...
Co‑Packaged Optics Dominate Top Winners This Year
Just keeps going $FORM Seeing this Co-Packaged Optics discussed across a bunch of big winners this year https://t.co/sosRLrP3tq
Mid- and Small-Cap Tech Surge Amid Large-Cap Decline
Despite Large-cap Technology stocks down over the past 4-5 months, both the Mid-cap Tech and Small-cap Tech indexes keep hitting new all-time highs this week. https://t.co/X2wjg3v8Qp
EM Earnings Surge 31% YoY, Outpacing US and Commodities
One way to visualize the global earnings convergence is by showing earnings estimates for the different regions on a log scale. All estimates are rising but EM estimates are rising the fastest. Shown another way, EM estimates are now rising at...
Balance Stocks and Bonds: Market Equilibrium Drives Wealth
Jack Bogle’s investing wisdom still holds true: when you lower your stock allocation and raise bonds, someone else is doing the opposite. That’s how market equilibrium works. Understanding asset allocation, the 60/40 portfolio, and index investing is key to long-term...
Profit in Bull Markets Requires Capital Preservation Mastery
Bull markets will make you a lot of money. But you need to be mature enough to understand capital preservation. Most people lose because they only learn the first half of the game.
SpaceX Poised to Deliver Broadband Cheaper than Any Alternative
Dan Sundheim on SpaceX: "The telecom market globally is now the TAM... They've come so far down the cost curve that I think in a relatively short time - months or a few years - they'll be dramatically cheaper than...
Uber Aggregates Robotaxis, Offering a Leveraged AV Bet
Uber isn’t building robotaxis. It’s aggregating them. That changes everything. $UBRL may be a leveraged bet on the entire AV ecosystem. Read why: https://t.co/uYTNGDwJMe @willrhind @graniteshares
Buy the Dip, Sell the Rally: Disciplined Growth Rules
I’m 62 years old and previously worked as a financial analyst at Morgan Stanley. After decades in the market, here are my simple rules for beginners: 📉 If it drops 5% → Hold 📉 If it drops 15% → Add 10% 📉 If it...
UPS Surpasses Median Forecast, Near 90% Target
Our fundamental team use the Monte Carlo simulation to derive a 12 month projection In September when $UPS was at $84, we shared our analysis The Median target was $106 The 90% percentile was $147 Price hit $120 recently We combine our fundamental analysis...