Broad Market Wins: Can't Beat VOO Long-Term
This AI is gonna kill software trade echoes the "Death of the Mall" trade from 10yrs ago which was to go long $AMZN and short $XRT (brick and mortar). ProShares made $CLIX, $EMTY and $ONLN to do trade for you. It worked for a minute but since then $XRT crushed them all and the Mighty $VOO crushed $XRT. Moral of the story: US cos aren't dumb most will adapt/exploit/invest in the new tech a la bricks and mortar offering online shopping. Further, indexes are going to evolve based on who wins and loses = You really can't beat VOO & Chill long-term. Thanks for attending my TED Talk.
Country Exposures Keep Outperforming the S&P 500
CHART OF THE DAY: Our Country Exposures Continue To Outperform $SPY Monkeys https://t.co/xvYrId3oap via @hedgeye
Diageo NA Sales Fall 7% Amid Tequila Competition
Diageo North America 1H FY26 organic net sales down ~7% YoY "Consumer wallet pressure and competitiveness in tequila" https://t.co/BHQJiiv6lk
Cathie Wood's 40% CAGR Promise Turns Negative
In December 2021, Cathie Wood remarked that her flagship fund, with its best-in-class research, could deliver a 40% CAGR over the next five years. As we surpass the 4Y mark, they are hitting a negative 6.5% CAGR.
Airport Terminal Signals Strong Growth for Fairfax India
Check out the airport terminal in the beginning of this video and you’ll understand why I’m bullish Fairfax India https://t.co/KDIukR4iLv
Microcap Success Demands Independent, Self‑driven Research
Successful microcap investors are always independent minded people. They are used to no analyst coverage, no institutional following, no liquidity - no safety net. They are used to doing their own work and building their own conviction. It's why most...
Holding, Not Trading, Generates Real Investment Returns
Benjamin Graham: “The real money in investing will have to be made not out of buying and selling, but of owning and holding securities.” Takeaway: Compounding rewards commitment. Most investors lose money not because they pick bad stocks — but because they...
Retail Lithium Investors Should Prioritize Proven Production Assets
Nobody likes to hear it but these are dangerous times for retail #lithium investors that throw money at projects that shouldn’t (and ultimately won’t) be built. Buy quality assets - currently producing or with a clear path to production. Traders?...
Indonesian-Chinese Shift Assets to Singapore, I’d Follow
You can tell that Indonesian-Chinese have moved assets to Singapore the past year. I would have done the same.
Vin Murria Vehicle Appears Cheap After Cash Strip
#ADVT "ahead of market consensus". 80% Recurring. £96m Cash. ShareScope has fwd p/e 14.7 falling to 14.2 but no Dividend, BEFORE 6% rise today. Strip out cash looks cheap. This is the Vin Murria vehicle. I don't hold.
Copper Price Spikes; Maintain Long CPER Position
Dr. Copper inflates again and we remain long of it in $CPER terms @RPKent $HBM https://t.co/amj1QWvmMl
Half‑Owned OM2 Trades at 0.1× EV/EB
S foods owns 48% of this 7614.T OM2, what the heck is this thing still doing listed. 0.1x EV/EBTIDA. the decimal is not a mistake. https://t.co/vQ1k9VL2Yk
Public Bank Posts Record Profit, Highest Dividend Yield
Public Bank. Highest Annual Net Profit •4Q Net Profit RM1.88b, up 2% •Total 2025 RM7.22bn, highest ever. •ROE ~12%, upper league among banks •Div 12 sen, 2025 total 22.5 sen (2024: 21 sen). Record high div payout ~60%. Annual div yield around...
MicroStrategy Tops Short List, $9.5B Bitcoin Loss
According to Goldman Sachs, shares of MicroStrategy are currently the most shorted among U.S.-listed stocks. Amid the crypto downturn, the company’s unrealized loss on its $BTC holdings has recently exceeded $9,500,000,000. https://t.co/cTdZMYj9A7
Emerging Markets Outpace US Stocks Since 2024 Peak
🚨Have US stocks PEAKED? The US stocks versus emerging market equities ratio has been falling for the last 15 months, after peaking in November 2024. Over this period, emerging market stocks have returned +48% while the S&P 500 delivered just +15%👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-stock-market-has-peaked
Foreigners Still Buying US Assets Despite Dollar Weakness
Foreign stocks are beating US stocks and the dollar is weakening, yet foreigners bought $1.4 trillion in US securities last year. The selling wave everyone is talking about isn't showing up in the data. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/yXliX9IMIO
Liquidity, Not Earnings, Halts Market Rally
What happened to the stock market? The market rally has come to a HALT. Earnings and innovation are not the problem, liquidity is.
Holding Is an Active Choice, Not Inaction
Buying and selling feel easier than holding because we are wired to believe activity = productivity. Holding is hard because it feels like inaction and complacency. But every day holding is an active decision.
Bonds Poised to Surprise in 2026 as Growth Cools
Bonds may be setting up the surprise of 2026. Equities own the narrative. Duration owns the asymmetry. If growth cools, fixed income becomes leadership. Framework here: https://t.co/NWtS4ggYI5 @JDHatfield_ICAP @InfraCap
Dollar Weakness Shifts Next Bull Market Beyond America
The next bull market may not be American. Dollar weakness changes leadership. If the dollar is in a structural bear, global diversification stops being optional. Capital rotates. Narratives lag. Read the full framework: https://t.co/RJWIidZeAI @DynamicAlphaSol
Explore Industry Ranks to Track Stock Rotations
I just posted a tutorial on the new @Deepvue Industry Ranks Feature.| Track rotation, dive deeper to find leading stocks, and see themes as they develop 👇 https://t.co/RtfsckwAaF
US Mega Caps and International Stocks Yield Identical 55% Gains
US mega caps and international stocks... same return since the start of 2024 $XLG $VEU +55% https://t.co/ivvWB6wtEx
Capex Share Rises, Yet Dividends Remain Intact
Companies are spending more of their revenues on capex, and so far, this hasn’t come at the expense of either dividends or buybacks. At the bottom in 2022, companies were spending 5.4% of their revenues on capex, and that has...
Story‑Driven Investors Face DAT Decline, Elevator Demand Rises
🆓 Tuesday links: narrative-loving investors, the end of the DAT boom, and growing demand for elevators. https://t.co/vZ3ezyQCtk chart: https://t.co/tgBy66cSK7 https://t.co/E3cZ7Gtawi
Stay Calm: Markets Build Wealth Over Time
The stock market is a great wealth builder over the long run, as long as you can resist panicking during downturns. https://t.co/o8C03pFJqy
Earnings Beats Keep 40‑Month Bull Market Alive
The earnings picture has continuedto provide support for this now 40-month old bull market. With Q4 earnings season soon wrapping up (with 425 companies having reported), 75% have beaten estimates by an average of 773 bps. The dollar estimate has...
Value Cyclicals at Mid-Cycle Earnings, Not Peaks
"Cyclicals should be valued on mid-cycle earnings, not peak performance." Most investors overpay at the top. Don’t be one of them. 📉
Mag 7 Range Holds; Break Below Could Trigger 10% Drop
Whether this benign broadening will continue depends largely on whether the Mag 7 can hold on to its trading range. So far it has, but should support be taken out at the range lows I could easily see another 10%...
Equal‑Weighted S&P 500 Beats Mag 7 Amid Market Dip
The chart below shows that the equal-weighted S&P 500 has outperformed the Mag 7 by 12% over the past 3 months. The last time that happened was in the fall of 2024, and the time before was the spring of...
Bull Market Still Strong, Yet Flattening Into Picks‑and‑Shovels
Another week, another headline bombshell. Such has been the norm during the past year or so. But charts are charts, and there is a lot we can learn from them in order to optimize the signal-to-noise ratio. What do...
Unexpected $LE Dip, but Solid IRR Outlook Before Q4 Earnings
Surprised to see $LE dip so much the past few days. No news afaict. I'm not allocating more here presently given current size, but seems a solid expected IRR special situation as we approach the 4Q earnings where presumably management...
Hegseth Threatens to Label Anthropic a Supply-Chain Risk
There's a word for this. Starts with an F. "Hegseth said he could label [Anthropic] a supply-chain risk, a move typically reserved for companies linked to adversaries, or invoke the Defense Production Act to force the company to work with the...
High‑Momentum Tech Overvalued, Risky If Market Weakens
Tech momentum is stretched. If macro weakens or earnings disappoint, crowded high-momentum tech could unwind quickly. This chart shows the performance and valuation of a high-minus-low (H–L) momentum factor within Russell 1000 Tech. Top Panel: H–L Momentum = Long Q1 (top momentum...
Big‑Ticket Sales Rise 1.3% Amid Discretionary Weakness
$HD Big Ticket ($1,000+) Transaction Comps "Big ticket comp transactions were +1.3%... We were pleased with the performance we saw in categories such as power, plumbing and electrical. However, larger discretionary projects remain under pressure." https://t.co/m5NwpVXZPR
UTG Dividend Yield Slips to 7.6% After Sharp Drop
After the big drop today, ShareScope now showing fwd Dividend Yield 7.7% FALLING to 7.6% for #UTG
Ritholtz Launches First Trend-Following ETF: A Watchlist Pick
Interesting… Ritholtz filing for first ETF. Trend following strategy. I like the Goaltending name/concept (a la Granny Shots another bball metaphor). Ben and Mike are the PMs. One to watch.
IRDM Dominates the Global LEO Satellite Market
$IRDM continuing off that strong base. These guys are the only global low earth orbit (LEO) satellite company. Big name in the space race.
Leveraged ETFs Fees Rising, Unaffected by Vanguard Effect
Leveraged ETFs: The Last Stronghold of the 1% Fee.. check out how the asset-weighted avg fee of 2x ETFs is actually going UP. Only category totally immune from Vanguard Effect, which explains the $1b in ann revenue and the torrent...
Macro Data Flaws, Bots Favor Bad News, Calendar Strategies
🔬 Research links: the problem with macro data, why bots love bad news, and how to use calendar-based strategies. https://t.co/gUmyuaWsPO chart: https://t.co/9NGWAEXTU1 https://t.co/QufnB6WSHu
Yield Curve Shifts From 2023 Inversion to 2025 Flattening
Chart shows the shape and evolution of the yield curve (3-Month Treasury yields (blue) and 10-Year Treasury yields (red)) from Feb 2023 to Feb 2026. It's been a wild ride from the extreme inversion in 2023 to normalization beginning Q4 2025....
Mag 7 Forward P/S Ratio Returns to 2021 Peak
Mag 7 forward price/sales ratio now back to the 2021 peak of ~7.1. * 2013–2020 average ≈ ~3.8–4.2x * Including bubble years (2020–2021 + 2024–2025) average ≈ ~4.5x https://t.co/AfvDJpv0iW
Weekly Sector Ratio Grids Reveal Top GIC Performers
a weekly glance at my @Optuma sector ratio grids which compare the performance of each of the 11 GICs sectors against the others... #SectorWatch left: 3-month % change right: 1-month % change https://t.co/JSBqVZnPwL
Pullbacks Signal Buying Chance Before 5% S&P Drop
“Markets are at a tactical–fundamental crossroads. Historically these conflicting signals precede >5% S&P 500 drawdowns. Pullbacks are opportunities to add thematic exposure. A clearer equity “index” upturn should follow once policy catalysts materialise lower mortgage rates via falling UST yields,...
Long‑horizon Investing Can Generate Its Own Alpha
For decades, long-term investing has been treated as a vague virtue rather than a distinct source of returns. Turns out long-horizon thinking may actually translate into its own source of alpha. by @ebasilico https://t.co/wIUJpxYujR https://t.co/d3aF2IAeAT
Boomers Command 45% Spending, 74% Wealth—Shaping Markets
Americans 55 & older now control: 45% of consumer spending 74% of the wealth What does this mean for the next generation, the housing market or the stock market? Some thoughts: https://t.co/tnQSK0khDB https://t.co/7BBPkFGnml
Leverage Could Shift Infrastructure Leadership Amid Stable Rates
Infrastructure may be the most crowded “safe” trade in markets. Consensus says utilities lag in a growth cycle. Leverage flips that narrative. If rates stabilize, leadership may rotate where few are looking. Read: https://t.co/GYU4HseCXx
Unpredictable Trades, Not Routine Patterns, Drive Outperformance
“…its limits may be more revealing than its success. The trades the system failed to anticipate — roughly 29% — were, on average, more closely associated with outperformance. In other words, the activity that falls outside routine, detectable investment patterns...
SPAC IPO of $
I hadn't realized that $OWL came public via SPAC. It's now right back to its original price. Turns out it was all priced in. EMH undefeated https://t.co/Q6eyG9hYLM
Bitcoin ETF Flows up $55B, Still #5 Overall
Yes, altho if you look at flows since Jan 2024 it STILL ranks #5 overall (only superhuman Vgrd ETFs did more), even after all this destruction. All told bitcoin ETF flows are still net net +$55b altho you'll be hard-pressed...
AI Trade Rotates: Data and Distribution Lead Next Phase
The AI trade isn’t peaking. It’s rotating. Leadership is shifting from chips to control of data + distribution. Most will chase yesterday’s winners. The next phase is structural. Read before consensus catches up: https://t.co/PmCr4t3wZc @ckaiwu @Mela_Schaffer