Avoid Stocks with Confusing Accounting, Buffett Advises
Warren Buffett’s investing rule is simple: if the accounting is confusing, walk away. Smart investing starts with transparency. If you can’t understand the numbers, you shouldn’t own the stock.
Meta's Dip Offers 4:1 Risk‑reward Buying Chance
META REPORT CARD: THIS IS THE DIP YOU’VE BEEN PRAYING FOR Price now: $525.72 Fundamental Entry (30% MoS): ≤ $628 → WELL BELOW ✅ 38% MoS at $550 The market just panic-sold $119 BILLION off META’s market cap on March 26 over antitrust headlines. But...
Fundamentals Beat Luck: Prioritize Allocation, Horizon, Selection
Don't mistake a "lucky" market timing trade for a "good" investment strategy. True financial success is built on a boring foundation: ✅ Proper Asset Allocation ✅ A Long Investment Horizon ✅ Superior Stock Selection That doesn't mean that timing cannot add a few percentage points...
Tech Valuations Lag Growth, Set to Outperform Soon
The $NDX forward PE ratio has dropped to 21.09. In September 2022 it was at 18.96. The $SPX forward PE is at 20.53. We're approaching the point where tech will start outperforming again. It doesn't make sense for tech to...
Stay Calm During 50% Market Drops or Underperform
"If you're not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century, you're not fit to be a common shareholder - and you deserve the mediocre result you are going to...
AI‑driven SaaS Valuations: NET Overpriced, ZETA Underval
SaaS valuations based on the Forward EV/Sales multiple relative to their projected NTM revenue growth. • $NET sits far above the curve — 29% growth but trading at 26x Forward EV/Sales. Market pricing in AI + platform dominance. • $APP combines high...
Stay Near Target Risk, Always Own Market Beta
If you are persistently leveraged long assets above your risk target you are doing it wrong and this month is a lesson. Consider moving to your risk target If you are perma bear and always underinvested and in...
Natural Gas Soars While Tech and Mag7 Falter
Ideas for that are Working 2026 FCG Natural Gas Equities: +40% Big Tech QQQ: -9% Mag7 MAGS: -16% Bloomberg https://t.co/Ojdx0GXDHM
Analysts Value Netflix so Highly It’d Trade at 14x P/E
Love the anecdote about Nygren’s analyst pitching Netflix: - Anecdotal survey showed his colleagues valued Netflix higher than any other subscription - If Netflix raised its price to their level, it would have traded at 14x P/E https://t.co/SlDjNAkwbF https://t.co/cVAQ97b2Pr
Even with Explosive Growth, I Hard‑reject ONDS at $9.11
Deep Dive Full Thesis - Is ONDS a BUY now at $9.11? $7M Revenue to $3.86B Market Cap in 15 Months — 10 Acquisitions, $1.8B Raised, 217% Dilution… Why I Still Say Hard Reject at $9.11 Recent Institutional Rating: - Northland Capital Markets...
Ackman Buys Meta at 15% Discount, P/E Below 20‑Year Average
Bill Ackman added $META at $625 you can buy here for 15% off at a P/E of 22 below its 20 year avg of 27!
Earnings Outlook Determines Whether Stocks or Bonds Look Cheap
If forward earnings estimates materialize, a lot of stocks seem pretty cheap. If earnings estimates don’t materialize, bonds seem cheap.
Monthly $300 S&P 500:
Invest $300/month into the S&P 500 and let time do the work: Year 5: $23,290 Year 10: $61,804 Year 15: $130,016 Year 20: $229,302 Year 25: $402,878 Year 30: $683,657 Consistency > timing. Start early. Stay consistent.
Buying Deep Into Undervalued Cash‑Rich Marketplace
Bought a lot today. And all week. A marketplace trading below 1x trailing EV/aEBITDA with nearly two-thirds of its market cap in net cash. The lower it goes, the more I buy.
Pros Evaluate Whole Portfolio; Amateurs Focus on Single Trades
CNBC-type amateurs grade the process one position at a time. Pros grade the portfolio over a Full Investing Cycle. That's not a philosophy difference. That's the whole ballgame https://t.co/oOOFG3WLfk
Earnings Drive AI Stock Gains, but Accounting Tricks Matter
Earnings growth supports stock price growth in the AI era. But do factors like extending the useful lives of tangible assets, aggressively capitalising costs rather than expensing them, and share buybacks also play a role?
Rising Inflation Threatens Balanced Portfolios Like 2022
Fears of re-accelerating inflation obliterating balanced portfolios, just like they did in 2022. https://t.co/S7laKGwQLC https://t.co/oLsV6wsuXf
Western Union Poised to Profit From Stablecoins
I started looking at Western Union because I thought stablecoins would kill it. Then I realized WU is better positioned than almost anyone to leverage them. Brand, distribution, 200+ countries, $923M in EBITDA. The key risk was management. They had...
Ondas' Strong Balance Sheet Fuels Revenue, Buy on Pullback
Macro: Ondas' stronger balance sheet reduces dilution risk; revenue accelerates. Key: $1.5B cash, backlog +240%, FY26 guide $375M. Risks: 35% short interest, elevated OPEX. Trade: buy on pullback; target $23. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Even Top‑rated Stocks Often Lag the Market over Five Years
The chart below should teach you something. I curated a list of above-average companies, many of which are considered "investor darlings," yet the majority of them underperformed the index over FIVE (!) years. $FICO $V $MA $SPGI $AMZN $MELI $RACE
Apple’s AI Router Turns Siri Into Revenue Engine
$AAPL just turned Siri into an AI router. That’s the endgame: Apple owns the interface, everyone else pays the toll. iOS 27 = services margin expansion 🚀 This is the bull case for Apple.
Long‑duration Treasuries Matching S&P Returns Signals Cycle Shift
Long duration Treasuries performance now roughly matches the performance of the S&P 500 from July of last year. Think about that - duration is performing like stocks. That's a cycle shift starting.
Analysts Forecast 29% S&P 500 Rise in Year
Industry Analysts Project 29% Increase in S&P 500 Price Over the Next 12 Months @factset https://t.co/7KtJzSkyej
S&P 500 Earnings Set for Sixth Double‑digit Quarter
Q1 2026 S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow 13.0% YoY, marking a sixth straight quarter of double-digit gains. @factset https://t.co/9e3Ce7uvHP
Market Valuations Shifting: Nvidia and Big‑tech Multiples Puzzling
The re-rating of Nvidia makes no sense quite honestly. Separately, moving the FCF multiple of Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet also doesn't make sense to me. That said, the pricing model for public markets are changing rapidly... https://t.co/bOnVWE3STO
Valuations Drop 12% Even as EPS Expectations Rise
📊 Valuations are down 12% while EPS expectations are up @DanGreenhaus breaks down the market math nobody is talking about 🎙️ https://t.co/T03CfonYMo
Wealth Grows Through Daily, Long‑Term Rational Investing
Building wealth isn’t about getting rich overnight, it’s about staying in the game. Charlie Munger’s mindset: show up daily, think long-term, and make rational moves in the stock market. That’s how portfolios grow.
High Inflation Dem
If CPI were to trend up to 5% over the next year in the unlikely event that rbob futures kept rolling up to the current spot price...what is the 10 year yield and what has to happen to SPX earnings...
2bps Fee Cut Propels SPYM to Vanguard‑Level Flows
Wrote today about the Power of One (Basis Point). $SPYM cut its fee to 2bps, making it the cheapest of the 4 SPX ETFs by just 1bp and BOOM, hockey stick aum growth after a decade in oblivion. It is...
Turn Corrections Into Liquidity: Gold, Bitcoin, Equities Rise
With stocks and bonds positively correlated again (but in the wrong direction), there’s a bit of 2022 déjà vu right now. Back in 2022 as the cost of capital reset after years of ultra-low rates, the 60/40 model broke down...
Three-Year Bull Markets Often Last a Fourth Year
Bull markets that reach a third year typically extend into a fourth. @soberlook Fisher Investments https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/sBX0mRXRR7
New Rating Reports Reveal Exact Entry Prices
My Brand-New Rating Reports Are LIVE I’ve just released my Fundamental Entry-Price Analysis on 21 stocks. Complete with my exclusive Buy • Watchlist • Reject Framework. No more guessing. Clear Expected Value (EV) targets show you the exact best price to enter every...
Investors Prioritize Earnings, Not Short‑Term Market Noise
What matters in the short run: -Wars -Oil prices -Tariffs -Interest rates -Sentiment -A million other things What matters in the long run: -Earnings Speculators focus on the short run. Investors play the long game. https://t.co/u1oZkcMGCY
Hold ESCO $ESE: 10X Growth, Multi‑Sector Resilience
In this week's edition of Friday Hidden Stars... ESCO $ESE is now a 10X rolling out the wayback machine today... but continues to thrive, get a combo of Aero/Defense (Navy), Utility (Grid/Electricity) and RF Test This is also a reminder....find...
Know Fundamentals or Treat Stock Picking as Gambling
Buying stocks = gambling? For some people, yes. For others, no. If you understand what you’re buying and why, it’s not gambling. But if you’re buying stocks without knowing how to read a balance sheet or what a P/E ratio is, it is gambling. If...
Mears Boosts Dividend, Signals Strong Cash Flow
Mears proposes 9% FY25 dividend increase to 17.5p — shows free-cashflow strength from govt contracts. Risk: contract renewals & cost inflation. Trade insight: buy on modest pullbacks. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
MediClin Posts Modest 2025 Growth; Watch 2026 EBIT
MediClin: 2025 revenue +4.8% to €784.5m, EBIT +3.5%. Drivers: post‑acute growth, stable occupancy; acute fell after Heart Centre sale. Risk: narrow 2026 EBIT range. Buy, watch 2026 EBIT. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Productivity‑Led Boom Still Likely, War Sparks Stagflation Fears
YARDENI RESEARCH CHART OF THE DAY (March 26, 2026) We've been betting on the productivity-led Roaring 2020s. That's still our 60% base case. So far, this scenario has been on the money. However, the war has increased the risks of a...
Unlock Japan’s Investment Secrets: 10 Key Questions Answered
This morning was for content creation. Watch this space for my filmed answers to the big 10 questions 😅 - What is the downside to following the crowd in the stock market? - How can you create your own upside in stocks? - What...
Master One Business Inside Out to Invest Wisely
Li Lu on how to become a great investor "Start learning from the best - listening, studying, and reading. The best way to do it is to study one business inside and out for the purpose of making the investment."
Quality Stocks Need Patience: 20‑year Gains, Short‑term Pain
I just had several days at a planning conference where several presenters discussed the long-term reliability of selecting quality stocks that showed resilience regardless of economic conditions, fiscal stimulus or inflationary environments. Example below of a popular concentrated portfolio of high-quality...
Quality Businesses Create Value Even without Market Hype
"A high-quality business compounds intrinsic value even when the stock is ignored." Most investors chase attention, smart investors build value.
Terry Smith’s Data‑Driven Calm Amid AI Hype
Terry Smith is currently the favorite punching bag of the investing world. After a period of underperformance, his "Quality" strategy is under heavy fire. But if you actually listen to the 2026 AGM, you’ll find one of the most rational voices...
Diversification Cost Driven by Funding, Not Strategy
"If You Can't Beat 'It, Stack 'It" Quantica's latest on why the cost of diversification depends on how you fund it, not the diversifier itself. Worth your time. https://t.co/w7oKWKy3Ot
NVDA 15x, MU 4x: Historic AI Investment Opportunities
$NVDA at ~15x and $MU at ~4x Forward EPS. Unless AI is being canceled (it is not) these sure will be seen as historic opportunities at some point 👏🏻
KLAR's Efficiency Gains Outshine Loan Loss Concerns
Investors focus too much on $KLAR loan losses provisions because of strong loan volume growth. They should focus more on $KLAR becoming a more efficient business by improving operating leverage. - Revenue per employee 3.6x from $344K to $1.24M. - The number of...
AI Boom Persists Despite Market Stress, Not a Bubble
The Mag 7 notwithstanding, the AI playbook (led by memory stocks and data centers, with software lagging behind) has not been materially impacted by the stress in the broader market. To me this strongly suggests that the AI boom continues...
Long‑term Market Favors Gains: Up Years Outnumber Down Years
Some say the stock market is rigged. If anything, you could argue it is rigged to go higher over the long run. Yes, down years happen, but big down years relative to big up years are quite skewed. You...
Agency Costs Silently Erode Your Investment Returns
Agency costs can quietly drain your portfolio. As Charlie Munger explains, both self-serving executives and poor decision-makers can hurt long-term returns. Learn smarter stock analysis and build wealth with better investing strategies. Most investors ignore this silent portfolio killer—and it’s costing...
Mag 7 Correction Boosts Near‑term Earnings Appeal
The Mag 7 has continued to be supported by strong earnings growth, and in the chart below one could make a compelling case that the M7 have corrected enough, as the price index has gone from hugging the earnings forecast...