Visa at $299: Strong Fundamentals Signal Buy
Deep Dive Full Thesis: Is VISA a BUY at $299? Visa just hit its 52-week low at $299, despite record Q1 revenue and a rock-solid 4.1% FCF yield. This is one of my all-time favorite companies: a true cash-printing machine with an unbreakable moat, elite ROIC, and industry-leading profit margins. That’s exactly why I ran it through my full 7-Level Decision Methodology and why it now screams Starter Buy right now. Recent Institutional Rating: - Morgan Stanley — Buy | $411
Tesla's 186× PE Stays High Amid Falling Earnings
$TSLA trades at 186x earnings. Given declining earnings, the PE will remain high unless the stock declines, which might be hard for some to comprehend. https://t.co/wc9fE48KQC
Fed Model Returns: Rates Matching Equities Threaten Stocks
One of my main themes since the rate reset in 2022 is that the Fed model is “back.” The Fed model, popularized by Alan Greenspan during the 1980’s, holds that when the risk-free rate (Treasuries) is competitive with risky assets...
Short‑Term Losses Mask Long‑Term Defense Innovation Gains
Given reports this week that Pete Hegseth tried to buy defense stocks prior to launching the Iran war, much attention has been paid to the failure of that trade. The index he attempted to buy, IDEF, has fallen ~13% over...
Magic Formula Reveals Top 50 High‑Cap Value Picks
Now that most companies reported, lets run Greenblatt's Magic Formula and check what companies it returns. I regularly find quite a few interesting ones. These are the top 50 stocks that the formula churned out, based on a market cap of >$50m...
NBIS Target Cut to $215 Amid Financing Doubts
The perma bull on $NBIS cutting their Price tgt to $215 and making a sly comment "We continue to believe that NBIS is innovating faster on the software front relative to other AIaaS peers, but we are slightly incrementally concerned...
Embrace Market Downturns: They Fuel Future Upside
The stock market goes down roughly once every four years, on average, and bear markets are a regular occurrence. Investors should embrace this risk because without the left side of this chart (downside) there would be no right side (upside)....
SoFi Remains Strong Amid Geopolitical Turmoil, Bullish Long-Term
$SOFI platform continues to get stronger despite IRAN conflict puking all over equities. Short term is extremely volatile for the entire market but hard not to be long term bullish on this company. 💪🏻
Pay for the Process, Not Each Individual Pick
Great to hear. Paying for the process matters a lot more than every single "pick"
Dev Kantesaria Doubts Big Tech's Capital Allocation Predictability
Dev Kantesaria on not investing in $META and Big Tech "I was never happy with the capital allocation of these big tech businesses... it doesn't have the predictability that we like to see."
Great Companies, Not Graham, Drive Real Wealth
“I saw immediately that Ben Graham was wrong. The real money was in the really great companies which carried you up and up and up.” - Charlie Munger
Buy Selectively on Pullback, Backed by Buyback
Macro: infrastructure demand; Key: GFL raises dividend 10%, closed Frontier, $15.6B mkt cap, 10% buyback; Risk: stock appears rich; Insight: buy selectively on pullback supported by buyback. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Trump’s Iran Rhetoric Signals Endless Conflict, Delays Bull Market
Thoughts? Trump's escalation rhetoric toward Iran could mean we're entering an era of perpetual global conflict rather than isolated wars, a continuous cycle that's impossible to resolve quickly. Compute, data, energy, infrastructure, and defense-adjacent industries—could quietly benefit from prolonged instability,...
Essential 2026 Charts to Track This Quarter
10 Charts to Watch in 2026 [Q2 Update] https://t.co/7SifuiD3Zx Key charts and issues to keep track of in the year ahead and beyond... https://t.co/Smunb8N2A2
Nike's Stock Reflects Global Influence of American Culture
Why does the share price of Nike matter? Few businesses have come to symbolize American culture to the rest of the world like Nike.
Activists Target Hidden ONE Cash, Driving Discounted Value
Another standard-looking activist headline, but for those in the know, this situation runs a lot deeper. I’ll explain. Elliott is asking shipping firm Mitsui OS&K for better cash returns to shareholders. Quite a standard approach for activists everywhere, and Japan is...
Low P/E Misleads When Earnings Are Leveraged or Cyclical
"A low P/E is irrelevant if earnings are inflated by leverage or cyclicality." A “cheap” stock isn’t always a bargain. A low P/E ratio can be misleading. Sometimes earnings look strong only because the company is heavily in debt. Other times, especially...
Dollar Gains Boost Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Materials
Sector work, 12/31/1989 - 3/31/2026. We find a strong relationship between US dollar direction and four specific sectors: 1) Discretionary 2) Energy 3) Industrials 4) Materials Not necessarily in that order. How to read the table: "Tallying all the months when the dollar index went up over...
NVIDIA's CUDA Lock‑in Faces Erosion, Ending Its Edge
Right now, NVIDIA is the only company here that has a network effect (due to CUDA lock-in). That seems likely to change over the next 1-2 years, as CUDA lock-in erodes, reducing NVIDIA's margins. It may be that eventually none...
S&P Forward P/E 19.2x; 8 Cheap Growth Stocks
The Forward P/E for the S&P 500 is now sitting at just 19.2x. 🧵Here are 8 stocks trading even lower with double digit earnings growth:
Apple’s AI Future Unlocks Upside for Investors
Happy Birthday $AAPL. After 50 years of thinking different, I believe that Apple’s most profound feature is still in the making: personalized AI. Apple + AI remains appears to be one of the most underappreciated opportunities in tech. Glad to be an...
Portable Alpha Gains Momentum Amid Liquidity Challenges
State of the Portable Alpha Landscape I sit down with Shane McCarthy of LAB Quantitative Strategies for a deep dive into the portable alpha and return stacking landscape, including fresh survey data on how allocators are approaching this space today. 00:00 Welcome...
Banks Play IPO Auditions as OpenAI Valuation Soars
"Don Corleone, I am honored and grateful that you have invited me to your daughter's wedding. And I pledge my ever-ending loyalty." — Luca Brasi The big story beneath the story of OpenAI's $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation is...
SpaceX IPO Defies $1B Revenue Ceiling, Aims Massive Scale
Pretty momentous day when SpaceX files for possibly the largest IPO ever. I remember when VC colleagues used to say this company had stalled at $1B or so of revenues, and that a space taxi company could only be *this* big,...
Earnings Estimates Surge 19% Amid 9% Market Drop
For me the most interesting thing last week was that earnings estimates not only held up despite the turmoil, but accelerated higher. The 52-week rate of change for the 12-month forward EPS estimate is now up to 19% despite the...
EU Defense Small Caps Poised for Decade-Long Gains
Interesting to see recently listed EU defense small caps Gabler $X4K and Vincorion $V1NC not participating in the recent sector rally. On the other hand, nobody knows them yet. Both rapidly growing, profitable, good b/s, decent valuations. Doesn't matter whether Trump will exit...
Nvidia's Valuation Outstrips GDP of Most Nations
Nvidia's stock market valuation has now exceeded the GDP of all but 5 countries on Earth? That single company's AI chip dominance is worth more than the annual economy of France, Canada, or Italy. We're witnessing wealth creation at a...
Value Stocks May Be Bottoming Again, Indicator Warns
Remember March 2000? The tech-heavy indices were at a vertical limit but "unloved" value stocks like Berkshire Hathaway were actually bottoming. Are we seeing a repeat of that specific historical rhyme today? One indicator is flashing red. Read my thoughts here...
Buy More SpaceX Shares As Valuation Drops
SpaceX IPO likely in June. Here is how I'm thinking about participation: 1)priced at $1.75T i'll buy zero shares 2)priced at $1.5T i'll buy 25% position 3)priced at $1.25T i'll buy 50% postion 4)priced at $1T i'll buy a full position
CrowdStrike: Strong Moat Justifies Buy at $390
Deep Dive Full Thesis: Is #CRWD a BUY now at $390? I’ve always loved CrowdStrike. Founder-led. Insane, unbreakable moat. Built to dominate cybersecurity for decades. And after surviving the largest IT outage in history, it just crushed it: record $5.25B ARR + 115%...
Tech Valuations Near Par with Overall S&P
S&P 500 Information Technology forward P/E has declined from a peak of 32x in 2025 to 20.9x, now nearly in line with the overall S&P 500 at 19.9x forward P/E. data from Yardeni Research. Investing
NRP Poised for 30% Upside as Distributions Return
$NRP is up 30% over the past 12 months. With preferreds retired, the company is set to resume higher distributions. Timing has slipped, though, due to a severe soda ash downcycle forcing reinvestment into the segment. Management now guides to likely distributions...
Crocs Paid Half Its Market Cap for Tiny HeyDude Sales
Last year, the Crocs brand sold ~129 million pairs of shoes - or nearly 6x greater than the ~22 million pairs that were sold under the HeyDude brand. In early 2022, Crocs paid ~$2.5 billion for HeyDude. The company's market cap is...
Nike Investors Endure 74% Loss over Five Years
I don’t know what’s more painful: losing 74% of your investment from the highs, or having to sit through it for five years. Tough stretch for Nike investors $NKE https://t.co/qoshCVwoO0
AI-Focused Positioning Drives Nvidia’s Massive Outperformance over AMD
Nvidia vs AMD over the last 5 years: NVDA: +1,158% AMD: +157% Same industry… completely different outcomes. The difference? Positioning around the AI boom. The market rewards companies that dominate trends—not just participate in them.
Average Investors Lag S&P; Index Funds Win
The average investor made 2.1%/yr in 1996-2015 vs 8.2%/yr for the S&P 500. This is exactly why many investors should just invest in index funds and chill. Stop gambling in individual stocks. Stop options trading. Start investing.
Fundamentals Strong, S&P 2026 Target 7100 Signals 9% Gain
"Although sentiment has soured, fundamentals have remained resilient. S&P 500 2026 earnings estimates rose 2% in March, pushing consensus growth expectations up to 17% YoY. At the same time, the S&P 500's forward PE sits ~15% below its recent peak...
Geopolitical Risks Are Temporary; Stick to Fundamentals
Geopolitical Risk Is A Recurring But Temporary Driver Of Markets ➡️While recent developments such as rising oil prices, evolving tariff policy, persistent inflation... can heighten investor anxiety, the more pressing challenge for advisors is helping clients distinguish between short-term noise...
46 Firms Created Half US Market Wealth; Most Stocks Lag
From 1926-2025 just 46 companies accounted for half of the $91 trillion in wealth created by the US stock market 60% of stocks underperformed T-bills Some thoughts on how to own the best stocks: https://t.co/chTC5hDP2I https://t.co/4YIroZABKD
Market Dips Are Normal; Volatility Fuels Long-Term Gains
Over the last 75 years, the average intra-year market drop has been 14%. If you are overly stressed out about the current 9% drawdown, the stock market isn’t for you. Downside volatility is the price investors pay for long-term outperformance....
Even Buffett Times Markets, Not Just Holds
One of the biggest adjustments I‘ve made over the last 12-18 months is becoming much more open-minded to the idea of timing. Still in the process of "getting" market timing. Buffett is arguably one of the greatest market timers in...
ARK Adds Private OpenAI to ETFs, 3% Stake
ARK is going to add private co OpenAI into some of its ETFs. I believe it’s 4th ETF to do this, and def not the last. 3% weighting. Nice scoop from @shiringhaffary @isabelletanlee https://t.co/OITULFSOS1
WNDR.TO Loses Appeal as Spread Narrows, Risks Rise
Time to move on here. $WNDR.TO spread has tightened from ~40% to ~13%, with shares back to prior levels. Op performance has deteriorated meaningfully, and a major early backer has fully exited. With regulatory risk still lingering, the risk/reward no longer...
Stocks Excel Long-Term, Avoid for Short-Term Needs
Investing Quote of the Day: “The stock market has been the best place to be over the last 10 years, 30 years, 100 years. But if you need the money in one or two years, you shouldn't be buying stocks.”...
Don’t Sell Winners, Hold Losers—Like Watering Weeds.
“Selling your winners and holding your losers is like cutting the flowers and watering the weeds.” — Peter Lynch https://t.co/x4zJ9Znyu3
RNWH H1 Cash Meets Expectations, Valuation Improves
#RNWH good H1 Update. Net Cash in line with expectations of £20m. ShareScope has fwd p/e 11.9 falling to 11.2 and fwd Divvy 2.5% rising to 2.6%. Interesting play on infrastructure rebuild. I don't hold.
Sentiment Indicator Signals Approaching Market Bottom, Stay Cautious
Chart of the Week - Sentiment Shifts This week’s chart presents an unusual sentiment indicator which serves a specific purpose to a specific type of market participant. This composite indicator takes into account sentiment readings from surveys + market metrics: the VIX...
IP Leakage Crucial to Valuing Anthropic and Similar AI Firms
Have been discussing how to value companies like Anthropic with some investor friends. The practical likelihood of continuous IP leakage a major factor in valuing the equity imo.
Barbell Investing: Stable ETFs Meet Compute‑Data‑Energy Winners
Thoughts? I discuss how to navigate market crashes using a barbell strategy combining stability and opportunity. We talk about building a foundation with VOO and VTI for security, while positioning for future gains in the power triad of compute, data,...
From Quant Momentum to Buffett: Targeting Cheap Ball‑Bearing Stock
Big news: After 40 years of running quant momentum models fancier than a meat pie at a hatted restaurant, I've decided to go full Warren Buffett. I'm burning the data, binning the computer terminals, and I'm now going deep on...