Oil Spikes, yet Inflation Expectations Stay Flat.
Oil prices are surging, but inflation expectations aren't moving. Bond markets still pricing in a world that may no longer exist. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/6C4VK744Ql
Excluding Autocracies Boosts Emerging Market ETF Returns
ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION: What happens when you take the MSCI EM Index and start kicking out autocratic countries with low freedom scores (eg China, Russia) and use that excess budget to load up on freer countries? You crush the benchmark....
Small‑cap Surge Signals Regime Shift Away From Growth
S&P 600 up 9% YTD. S&P 500 flat. Tech lagging. Energy leading. Value crushing growth. This isn't a head fake. This is a regime change. The small-cap rotation is real and it's getting started. https://t.co/AYVusIGbRd
Third Point Secures New, Undisclosed Stake in Generac
$GNRC Dan Loeb’s THIRD POINT has a big new stake in Generac Holdings (GNRC). NEW, previously undisclosed CONFIRMED
Learning Co‑Investing Secrets by Watching Benchmark’s Five Partners
In 1999-2000 Craig McCaw asked me to spend a lot of time working in the Benchmark offices on Sand Hill Road to find areas where co-investment was possible. I never learned so much, as Yogi Berra famously said, "just by...
STUB Trades at Deep Discount Despite Strong Margins
Took a $STUB starter this morning. At ~$9/sh, EV of ~$3.4B represents ~8x 2026 EBITDA guide MP & ~22x RR FCF. Regulatory resale (~10% GMS) risks appear discounted. This is deeply discounted to any reasonable comp set for a scaled marketplace with...
Exploring SpaceX IPO, Covid Legacy, iPod's Music Revolution
✍️ Longform links: a look at a potential SpaceX IPO, the long-term health impacts of Covid, and how the iPod changed our relationship with music. https://t.co/6bSrheJuzD image: https://t.co/vMSvzVUcJK https://t.co/8bTwTklNAR
US Stocks Maintain Record 15-Year Outperformance Stretch
Over the past 14 months, International stocks have outperformed US stocks by 27%, the widest margin since 1993-94. But zoom out. On a rolling 5-year basis, US stocks have outperformed for 15 years running. This is by far the longest stretch of US...
True Quality Endures Beyond Changing Conditions
Quality is an idea, a piece of artwork, a business, a relationship, or even a book that keeps working (providing value) even after conditions change over time. Quality is an interesting topic because it’s one of the most overused terms...
SpaceX's $1.75T IPO Dream Defies $20B Revenue Reality
SpaceX provably has revenues of less than $20bn and loses money after the merger with xAI, but is targeting a $1.75 TRILLION IPO. So FTAV explored how Musk might try to pull off what could be the biggest bagholder operation...
FPIs Net Buy 22,000 Cr Equity In
FPIs bought 22,000 cr in equity in Feb. (And uhem, they sold 17K cr. on Monday + Wednesday) https://t.co/bmXFAXJ1aZ
Price Determines a Stock’s Investment Merit
"The price [of a security] is frequently an essential element, so that a stock may have investment merit at one price level but not at another." ~ Ben Graham Price changes everything.
Korea's CompanyGuide Mirrors Japan's Handbook, Use Chrome Translate
Korea's version of the "Japan Company Handbook" is essentially FnGuide's CompanyGuide website. Not available in English but you can you use Translate in Google Chrome. https://t.co/I0HU3TxRNN
Kaspi's 9% Yield Highlights Strong Moat Despite Accounting Opacity
Kaspi now yields 9%, for what undoubtedly a very moaty business (no views on its accounting) https://t.co/EuZ6Ogfo3P
Korea’s Chip Output Drops, Shifts to High‑Bandwidth Memory
Didn’t realize how much Korean chip production has fallen in the past few months, as it’s shifting towards high bandwith memory. Source: Robeco https://t.co/I5YOwPS4OL
Google Trends Predict HelloFresh Revenue Decline Ahead
Google trends for HelloFresh has been tracking at ~20% year-over-year declines for the last two years. It was a pretty solid leading indicator for revenue declines. But look what’s happening now 👀 2026 guidance to be revealed on March 18 could...
War Won’t Sustain Defense Stock Multiples, Says Analyst
Lockheed Martin up 6% Monday. Down 1.3% today. The defense trade isn't fading because the war is ending. It's fading because the market is starting to realize war doesn't fix earnings multiples. https://t.co/xXNtusNgkE
U.S. Large‑Cap Stocks Overpriced by 176% Historically
Large caps are extremely expensive, well beyond 3 standard deviations above average, but back a little from last year's all-time high. These two charts come from long-run valuation work (Advisor Perspectives / Crestmont style datasets) and show how expensive the U.S....
Fed Stuck: No Cuts Amid Rising Stagflation
The Fed is trapped. Oil at $81 → inflation rising. Stocks selling off → growth slowing. Yields above 4% → no room to cut. Stagflation isn't a theory. It's a Tuesday. Rate at 3.5-3.75%. Next meeting March 17. They will do nothing. And that's the problem....
Market Values Future Risk over Current Earnings
MongoDB: Revenue up 27%. Beat on earnings. Rule of 40. Record cash flow. Stock: Down 22%. Why? Two top execs left. Guidance light. The market doesn't care what you did. It cares what you're about to lose. https://t.co/u0W819CWth
Growth Dominance Hits 30‑Year High, May Be Peaking
We are moving away from the most extreme growth-over-value cycle peak in modern history. On a relative basis, the expensive vs. value ratio is now back to the 2021 Meme stock peak, which was then higher than at any...
Company Completes $400M Share Buyback by December 2025
"As announced on October 2, 2025, the Board authorized the repurchase of $400 million of outstanding shares of Class A and Class B common from October 1, 2025, through October 1, 2026… The $400 million repurchase program was completed in...
Investing Is Cooking: Show the Full Flavor, Not Ingredients
A Stock Picker is a Chef Envision you are a Chef hosting a dinner. Mise en place is the French term for having all ingredients measured, chopped, and arranged before cooking. Your guests haven't been told what you are making. They only see the...
Egg Brand Doubles Whole Foods Share, Expands SKUs
"We're at an average of 9 egg SKUs per door at Whole Foods... We've grown to about half the dollar value of egg sales at Whole Foods; at the IPO, we were about 1/3 of their egg sales... We're at...
Nvidia Overtakes Apple at TSMC, Plus Market Highlights
Today's FREE Edition has more interesting things than can reasonably be expected to fit in a Honda Odyssey: 616: Nvidia Dethrones Apple at TSMC, Coase Conjecture and AI Lab Profits, Boots on the Ground vs Panopticon, BART Applied Economics, Apple’s 2025...
Equal‑Weighted Index Holds, Cap‑Weighted Faces 10% Risk
At the same time, the equal-weighted price index remains in a solid uptrend and unlike its cap-weighted sibling is not over its skis from a trend perspective. The broader market is well-grounded from a price, breadth, earnings, and valuation perspective. It’s the...
Software Oversold; Quality Stocks Near Bottom, Ready to Rise
Software is *very* oversold and likely bottoming $IGV Our portfolio has exposure to quality software stocks which have been unfairly caught in the selloff and appear poised for a multi-month run. https://t.co/9W3aDdLK3Q https://t.co/Ursw6tsRqw
Oversold AI, Cybersecurity, Infra Stocks Poised for Rally
AI, cybersecurity and infrastructure software stocks are *very* oversold. When the market volatility subsides, these growth stocks likely to embark on multi-month rally.
Markets Face Redemptions, Housing Woes, and AI Optimism
Animal Spirits: A Wave of Redemptions Geopolitics vs the stock market vs AI Is inflation risk back? Is it time for a correction? The optimistic view on AI The most broken housing market in America The private credit crisis of confidence & more https://t.co/3VV58HRcdq https://t.co/V5eIvRDjMe
HBO Reached 54 Million Domestic Subscribers in 2017
Time Warner FY17 10-K: "At December 31, 2017, Home Box Office had approximately 54 million domestic subscribers, including subscribers to HBO NOW and through Home Box Office’s digital distribution partners." https://t.co/4lw2HM9qU0
Repeatable Alpha Strategies Eventually Lose Edge
"Any repeatable process that generates significant alpha in fundamental investing is going to get competed away." - @GavinSBaker (EP.489) With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @MorningstarInc, and Ridgeline.
Distinguish Initial Large Bets From Growing Positions
New Article There is a massive difference between taking a large initial position and allowing a position to become large. Few investors understand this distinction. https://t.co/hxHNHYqor8
CORD's 3.9% Yield Positions It as Income Play
ShareScope has #CORD on a Forward Dividend Yield of 3.9%; it might work as an Income Portfolio stock. I don't hold.
Geopolitics Threaten Chinese Firms' Access to Western Markets
What I don’t understand is the position of PRC companies. Do they want the headache of dealing with geopolitics? They’re competitive in their own right. If this goes on, Chinese products will be shut out of Western markets.
Most Miss KOSPI’s Memory Chip and Reform Narrative
Pretty much 100% of my timeline is people freaking out about KOSPI KOSPI is a memory chip story. There’s a great structural reform story, too, and it feels like nobody except @smartkarma and shareholder activists are paying attention
US Kills Iran Leaders; War Persists, Oil Spikes
The US just killed Iran's top leaders, but the war isn't ending. The Revolutionary Guard is still fighting, and oil has spiked past $85. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/oiXuHGPp3W
GRV
$GRVY going negative EV again despite governance reform & an activist at majority owner GungHo may lure me back in as Kospi gets gutted https://t.co/G956qY7aXY
Long Reinvestment Runways Fuel Powerful Wealth Compounding
"Reinvestment runway defines long-term compounding potential." The biggest investing edge isn’t timing the market — it’s owning long reinvestment runways. 🚀 Reinvestment runway defines how long a business can compound capital at high returns. The longer the runway, the more powerful the...
Record Volume Hits ACWI After 2% Dip, Model Rotation Suspected
Intriguing, $ACWI (and $28b old dog ETF I rarely think about) saw record volume today. Maybe bc it fell 2%, which is bad but not Code Red.. my guess is a model rotated out of it. We've seen a lot...
Financials Surge, Magnetizing 2024‑25 First‑Half Pivot
Financials rally back to the underbelly of the 2024 and 2025 1H pivot. So far it’s acting like a magnet... $XLF https://t.co/jXBzQnKMxZ
Turned Defensive Tactics Against Misaligned Controllers
"Prophylactic measures" are typically what boards use to defend against activists (e.g., poison pills, staggered boards, etc). With $MAPS I flipped the script. In the presence of controllers with misaligned incentives, I had to deploy prophylactic defenses to box the board...
Deal Sets Us Up as DTC Market Leader
David Ellison: “This deal positions us to be one of the leading competitors in the DTC space, to really accelerate our growth and to achieve scale in DTC… It is a primary goal for the business.”
US Valuation Premium Shrinks as Global Earnings Surge
Global markets are at or near all-time highs, supported by strong earnings growth around the world. The rest of the world is outperforming the US on a combination of better earnings growth, competitive payout ratios, and lower valuations. As such,...
Quality Small Caps Outperform Junkier Russell 2000 Over
This chart plots the ratio of the S&P 600 Index divided by the Russell 2000 Index from the early 1990s to today. Russell 2000 = 2000 “small caps” by market cap, inclusion rules are mostly mechanical and allow many...
Energy Cheap and Underweight; Oil Upswing Could Boost Index
This chart shows Energy’s weight in the S&P 500 over time in two dimensions: * Blue line = Energy’s market cap share * Red line = Energy’s forward earnings share Current readings (Mar 2): * Market cap share ≈ 3.4% * Forward earnings share ≈...
Limited Borrowing? Rethink Sharpe Ratio for Fund Selection
Selecting mutual funds is one of the most important jobs investors face. But using sharpe ratio may not be the answer if you have a limited ability to borrow. By @ebasilico https://t.co/x4TGFkaBHH https://t.co/d7tayubSd2
AI Capex Boom Outpaces Global GDP, Prompting US Shift
“There’s just not enough GDP to support all of them.” @dampedspring returns to @excessreturnpod to break down the funding test behind the AI Capex boom, how the Iran conflict is being priced, and why he’s shifted away from US assets. https://t.co/wooKnQeQKH
Submit by March 5 to Unlock Simplified, Tax‑Efficient US Equity ETF
Final Call: Advisors must submit portfolios & tax lot data by March 5 to participate in the launch of the Alpha Architect U.S. Equity 3 ETF (AAUA) Don’t miss the opportunity to: - Simplify complex client portfolios - Reduce tax friction through a...
Only Log in to Buy, Not to Watch
Don’t even bother logging into your investment accounts if you’re not buying more stocks. You’re just going to make yourself feel worse and selling will only hurt you in the long term.
Ignore Market Noise; Stick to Long‑term Plan
If you're not retired: > stop obsessing over share prices, it's just noise > stop stressing about daily market moves, they don't matter > stop panicking over short term drops, they are normal Just stick to your long term plan. Stick to your allocation....