BPI's Long-Term Appeal Threatened by Rate Cuts
BPI feels like a long term winner. Then again, the Bangko Sentral is lowering rates and NIM compression should follow
Screen Out 95% of Stocks with Six Simple Metrics
Use these criteria to eliminate 95% of stocks: Revenue growth 12% Shares outstanding <2% Net debt to FCF below 5x Free cash flow growth +15% Return on Invested capital +15% Earnings per share growth +15%
Chase Durable ROIC, Not Just Growth
"Durable ROIC is the economic signature of a high-quality business". Most investors chase growth. The best investors chase durable ROIC. 📈 Return on Invested Capital tells you how efficiently a company turns capital into profits—and the durable part is what separates great...
Energy Stocks Stay Resilient Amid Wild Oil Swing
Wild. A $35 swing in oil prices in one day. Smells fishy... Oil and gas stocks held up remarkably well despite all this. A reminder that silver experienced similar volatility and is now settling at levels well above any point in...
90% of Fund Managers Lag S&P—We Don't Need Them
Not only rich but an elite investor because over any reasonable period of time the vast majority of equity fund managers, like 90%, will underperform the S&P 500. We don’t need them. And I’ll never understand why capitalism hasn’t pointed...
Market Bottomed 17 Years Ago; Now up Tenfold
The stock market bottomed out 17 years ago today. The market is up 10-fold since then (incl divs). https://t.co/SZqfiM1kX3
Buy the Dip: Invest More as Markets Fall
You can't pick a stock market bottom, you can only pick a stock market discount. The strategy for investing is simple: 1. Always stay invested at an asset allocation 2. If the stock market falls 25%/50%/75%, invest 25% of the allocation not...
Tech Investment Gains Spotlighted in Broadcom Analysis
Ray Wang makes the case for investing in tech https://t.co/Xc0L0HR1qL @FoxBusiness @cvpayne @rwang0 of @constellationr discusses @Broadcom's quarter, mega-cap buys, stock-based compensation and more on 'Making Money.' https://t.co/R7sDw6EAZn
Utility Investors Warn Against Expanding Risk Responsibilities
Greg Abel: “We see a bigger issue in the utility industry: does the regulatory compact continue to exist? We deploy capital into these businesses, and we receive a return that is reflective of us taking a certain amount of risk....
Brazil's Market Near Historic Lows, Poised for Capital Influx
Brazil’s CAPE ratio is approaching one of the most undervalued levels in its history. The Brazilian equity market is nearly as cheap as it was at major historical bottoms — the early 2000s and the political crisis of 2015–16. This is a...
Buy Quality Stocks Amid Uncertainty, Not Certainty
Great to be on @SquawkCNBC this morning - if you wait until absolute certainty you will miss some great stocks on sale. Find quality companies with strong balance sheets, great mkt share and good TAMs to add on the...
Buy and Hold S&P 500: $10k Grows to $1.9M
$10,000 in the S&P 500 in 1980 → $1,899,400 today. No day trading. No stock picking. No market timing. Just buy, hold, and let time do the work. Compounding is undefeated.
Small‑Cap Banks Undervalued, Big Banks Overpriced, Deep Value Wins
Long/short financials investor Derek Pilecki of @gatorcapital on: * Why Small Cap Banks Are So Cheap Right Now * Why the U.S. Has Thousands of Banks * His Deep Value Strategy in Financial Stocks * Why Big Banks Are Expensive and Small Banks Are...
Rethinking Balanced Portfolios: Beyond Equity and Bond Premia
Traditionally, balanced portfolios rely on the equity and bond risk premia to generate returns. But is there a potentially better way? by @ebasilico https://t.co/dVYUQ1cXTI https://t.co/dSGBs4QvXo
Recurring Collapse Patterns Reveal True Market Drivers
3 patterns that repeat every single time a growth stock collapses, and Tesla, Bitcoin and Palantir are all showing them right now. The Efficient Markets Hypothesis tells you the market gets the pricing right. I have spent decades showing why that...
From 57% Plunge to 400% Gain in 11 Years
17 years ago today the S&P 500 bottomed after losing nearly 57%. That started an 11 year long bull market that gained more than 400%. https://t.co/yorh6ENKeo
Stay Calm: Regular Investing Beats Market Volatility
Been on bbcnews explaining why financial markets are going haywire due to a spike in energy prices. If you have a pension or other investments don’t panic, keep calm and carry on as bouts of market volatility are usual for...
23 Years of Dividend Growth Amid Volatile Uptrend
Couple of impressive aspects to #CKN - 23 years of Dividend growth and ShareScope showing the Share Price Chart in an Uptrend for 23 years (coincidence?). Quite wide swings in the Uptrend Channel though. I don't hold.
Use Market Drop as Long-Term Investment Opportunity
Blood is on the streets. Sadly, even literally. Portfolios will bleed too, and this time it's a man made disaster. We've seen these before, and we've emerged eventually out of them better, but man made disasters tend to take a little...
True Compounders Reinvest Cash at Returns Above Cost
"A true compounder reinvests cash flows at rates above its cost of capital." Most investors chase growth. The best investors chase compounding. A true compounder does one thing exceptionally well: it reinvests cash flows at returns higher than its cost of capital.
Tax Wrappers Are Cheat Codes, Not Indexing Tools
Tax wrappers (IRAs, HSAs, etc.) are cheat codes for arbs & special situations. Active investors using them as indexing & long-term only vehicles are sabotaging their risk adjusted after tax returns. https://t.co/HDlplC0mGI
Fortunes Grow in the Quiet Gap Before Validation
Most investors won't like your investment idea until after it doubles, which means validation comes long after you've purchased and borne the burden of being alone in your conviction. The gap between purchase and recognition is where fortunes are built...
Japanese Portfolio Managers Barred From Software Investments
“An interesting thing I heard is that some Japanese Portfolio Managers are being actively told company-wide not to touch anything software or IT related in the broad sense, at all” - @InvestInJapan
U.S. Debt Outpaces Growth, Threatening Investor Portfolios
Jerome Powell warns the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path, with national debt growing faster than the economy. Investors, learn how this affects the stock market, portfolio risk, and long-term wealth building. Smart value investing can protect your financial...
Goldman Holds 7600 SPX Target, Cuts Loom
Goldman sticking with a 7600 YE SPX target... I give it 4 weeks before we start seeing estimate cuts across the street https://t.co/DsTzT8zbEO
Small‑cap Slump Signals Delayed Bull Market Confirmation
Russell 2000 down 2.3%. Small caps are the canary. They need cheap credit, domestic demand, and labor stability. They have none of those right now. If you're waiting for small cap leadership to confirm a bull market, you'll be waiting a while. https://t.co/mDOKLhcosE
Market Tricks Beginners: Luck Isn't Skill, Double‑Down Costs
The greatest trick the market plays on beginners is making you think luck is skill. It waits for you to double or triple down on your next bet and then it teaches you your first lesson.
Invest with Built‑In Protection: Prioritize Margin of Safety
Seth Klarman: “The most important thing in investing is to have a margin of safety.” Takeaway: Buy with protection built in. Most investors lose money before they even buy.
High Conviction Doesn't Require Massive Portfolio Bets
I've always been a conviction investor, but I have evolved in how I define "high conviction" and how it is expressed within my portfolio. When most investors hear high conviction, they think of high concentration. To them, concentration means making...
China Tech Lagged US Markets Amid Dilution and Governance Issues
Performance since 2013: KWEB: +13% QQQ: +896% Positive interpretations for China tech: - Strong USD and strong US equities - Index construction sub-par Negative interpretations: - Heavy dilution - Related party transactions / leakage - Limited capital returns (until recently) https://t.co/8eQeEK0yx7
Mispriced $MLCI Offers Second Chance at $5
Sometimes Mr. Market hands you a mulligan. I got clipped tendering $MLCI from the wrong zip code, then got a second swing at $5.00 after the board itself paid $9.43. I wrote up the mispricing, the mechanics, and...
VIX Spikes Often Precede Stock Rebounds—Still Just Probabilities
The $VIX increased 48% this week, the 21st biggest weekly spike ever. What has happened in the past following the biggest $VIX spikes? Stocks have tended to bounce back with above-average forward returns. Does this always happen? No. There are no certainties in markets,...
New Lindy Effect ETF Targets 50‑Year‑Old Companies
New filing for a Lindy Effect ETF.. which will only hold companies that are over 50yrs old. Some other ones incl Insurance ETF (haven't seen one of those in a long time). New issuer I believe too. https://t.co/c1L9kTa7hU
Market Ignoring Looming Risks as SPY Nears Peak
SPY is 2.4% from its all-time high. In the middle of a war. With oil spiking. With yields surging. The market hasn't priced in the worst case. It hasn't even priced in the base case. That's the scariest part. https://t.co/d7MxjrSyrG
Value Investing Gains Momentum Amid AI Market Rout
This week in value: Berkshire Hathaway 2025 Annual Report (BH) Tom Gayner – 2025 Letter (Markel) GMO – Year End Letters 2025 (GMO) Icahn Enterprises L.P. 2025 Q4 (Icahn) Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel on resuming buyback program: I absolutely talked to Warren (CNBC) Could Value...
Cyclical Job Loss Spreads to Education and Health
Over the last 12 months basically every cyclical industry but construction and leisure/hospitality has negative job growth. The new news today is the negative Education/Health, but the cyclical economy has been weak for a long time. https://t.co/TdUz4KvRxm
All Assets Falling Signals Liquidity Crunch, Not Rotation
The 10-year yield has risen four consecutive sessions to 4.14%. Stocks down. Bonds down. Oil up. Gold down. When everything sells off together, it's not a rotation. It's a liquidity event. https://t.co/6whtUyh3CH
Invest for Few Big Winners, Sell the Rest
During a lifetime you will have 10-20 big winners and hundreds or thousands that didn’t live up to your expectations. Long-term investing success is capturing those 10-20 monsters while also understanding 95% of what you own will deserve to be...
Middle East Ceasefire Could Lower Oil, Ease Inflation Risks
A major Middle East shift could ease geopolitical risk and send oil prices lower after a ceasefire. The implications for inflation, consumers, and markets ahead. 🟢 Open https://t.co/7zkGP8J4td
Analyze the Business First, Not Just Charts
Charlie Munger: “You must value the business in order to value the stock.” Takeaway: Analyze operations before analyzing charts. Most investors analyze charts. The best investors analyze businesses first.
March Beats October, Delivers Positive S&P Return
March is like October's little brother, but he does average a positive SPX return... BofA https://t.co/jFaPf9gsOb
Contrarian Opportunity? Freee 4478 JP Faces Unexpected Negativity
Very surprised by the negativity surrounding Freee 4478 JP. I'm either completely wrong, or in it's a highly contrarian buy. https://t.co/ihtyiQ5SFt
KOSPI's Memory Chip Weight
What is he on about? KOSPI is like 50% memory chip exposure and earnings estimates have gone up. The people day-trading are local retail investors, but they’re still mostly focused on US tech. https://t.co/ebX1YOmoN2
PBM Critics Overlook Their Owners' Low, Stagnant Margins
So I've read a few long essays on how abusive pharmaceutical benefit managers and group purchasing organizations are, and they all make a strong case. And then I look at the companies that own PBMs, and their margins are a)...
Investors Rotating From US Tech to Commodities and Bonds
"We are in the first phase of a great rotation away from the US FANG+ and related stocks, semiconductor, and AI software companies towards oil & gas, utilities, emerging market, and resource stocks, and Treasury bonds." - Marc Faber
Japanese Stocks Surge; Fund Gains 6.7% Amid Yen Drag
February was another strong month for the Japanese equity market and for Senjin Capital Fund I. The Fund’s unit price increased 6.7% in AU$ terms, despite a ~3% FX drag from the weakening Yen. The Fund has now returned 48% net of...
Record Large‑Cap vs Small‑Cap Spread Signals Hidden Opportunities
“The spread between large-caps and small-caps is the widest we’ve ever seen.” Rob Arnott joins us on @excessreturnpod to discuss historic valuation gaps, AI expectations, investing in periods of conflict and why the biggest opportunities may be where investors aren’t looking....
Dollar Rises, Treasuries Fall: Safety Flight Redefined
"The US Dollar may still have moved up after the war started, but the price of US Treasuries went down. Flight-to-safety and flight-to-quality aren’t what they used to be."
Probabilistic GDOT Analysis Shows Inevitable Math Outcomes
Just published a writeup on $GDOT, the math is inevitable. (I am being playful, the math is probabilistic. DYODD, see disclaimers in my post, linked below:) https://t.co/ZjGJRg0ROs
Novo Nordisk and Weightwatchers Extend Collaboration to Germany
Novo Nordisk expands partnership with Weightwatchers to Germany. Dream team. Love to see it. $NVO $WW