Only Log in to Buy, Not to Watch
Don’t even bother logging into your investment accounts if you’re not buying more stocks. You’re just going to make yourself feel worse and selling will only hurt you in the long term.
Ignore Market Noise; Stick to Long‑term Plan
If you're not retired: > stop obsessing over share prices, it's just noise > stop stressing about daily market moves, they don't matter > stop panicking over short term drops, they are normal Just stick to your long term plan. Stick to your allocation....
VITL's Low-Return Claim Clashes with $100M Buyback
A slide from the $VITL December 2025 Investor Day, which ranked capital returns as their lowest investment priority; two months later, announced a $100 million repurchase authorization, which would require debt issuance. https://t.co/IAg2QWKbrE
Weekly Safety Checklist for New Buying Decisions
a weekly glance at our "Is It Safe for New Buying?" checklist... $TSX $QQQ $SPX $IWM https://t.co/ryem6Ua7LX
Stocks Outpace Inflation, Preserve Purchasing Power
In my opinion, this is the most compelling chart for being a stock market investor. Over the last 50 years: -US Inflation: up 6x -S&P 500 dividends: up 21x -S&P 500 total return: up 265x Over the long run, stocks trounce inflation and protect your...
Wholesale Options Signals Reveal Crucial Market Fundamentals
Even if you're not an active single name options market participant, ignoring wholesale the signals & pricing in those markets can be tantamount to ignoring fundamental developments.
VSNT Q4: Lower Dividend, $1B Repo Boost, Upside Potential
Just gonna repost this $VSNT thread alongside the 4Q25 results. Dividend a bit lower than I expected ($0.375, ~4.5% yield on close), $1B repo authorization is a nice carrot tho. ST upside from staying below R2K incl. threshold by 4/30 rank day. IR...
NKTR Emerges as Biotech's Most Undervalued Gem
More cases of Kaposi sarcoma for OX40. OX. 40. Is. Done. $SNY still projecting $3-$5B peak sales for Amli is a pipe dream. This value is going to $NKTR. $NKTR is, IMO, the single most undervalued name I...
Oil Spikes Signal Deflationary Shock, Not Inflation
Everyone assuming the Oil move is inflationary. An Oil spike historically more often than not precedes equity tail events and economic recessions. Why? Speed of Oil move is deflationary shock.
19‑Year Market Trend Signals Immediate Investment Implications
This 19-Year Chart of Stock Markets Really Matters Right Now (here's why) https://t.co/TEzNGq0NTV [VIDEO] #stockmarket #SP500 #dowjones
Warner Bros. Discovery Reopens Discovery+ Subscriptions Globally
WBD Q4 FY25 call: "If you remember back when we merged into Warner Bros. Discovery, we were trying to shut down Discovery Plus. The fact of the matter is we still have millions of viewers... We have already opened up...
WBD Falls Far Short of FY25 Revenue Targets
FY23 financial projections from the Warner Media / DISCA deal. Fast forward to FY25: WBD generated total revenues of $37.3 billion, with $10.9 billion from DTC, EBITDA of $8.7 billion, and FCF of $3.1 billion. Missed every one of their financial projections...
Manufacturing Rebounds, but Core PPI Surges Unexpectedly
Manufacturing is finally reviving, but core PPI just jumped 0.8% in a month when economists expected 0.3%. Services inflation refuses to budge. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/4QiEXL6LgZ
Bank Sector Yields Surge Above 5%, Top Three Near 6%
Bank stocks annual div yield (as at 2 March) post-4Q2025 earnings. All except Alliance, AM will pay interim div in March 2026. Top 3 highest (2026 estimates): •Bank Islam: 6.22% •*CIMB: 5.92% •RHB: 5.91% =Average Sector DY: 5.10% (10 banks) [*incl Special Div 7sen]
Outperformance Depends on People, Not Just Processes
So good by @GavinSBaker In Michael Jordan’s second to last year with the Chicago Bulls, Jerry Krause, GM of the Bulls said, “Listen players don’t win championships, organizations do. It isn’t just Jordan or Pippen. It’s how we scout, draft,...
Gundlach Urges Investors to Shift From Dollar to Foreign Assets
Jeff Gundlach: “My recommendation is that US Dollar based investors should be investing in foreign markets in foreign currencies. Because the US Dollar appears to be in a long-term bear market” https://t.co/b2PwOxuvyI
Trend Following and Indexing Share Same Drawdown Reality
These types of comments always amuse me... "...trend following strategies typically have long flat or negative periods that test discipline. Past profitability doesn't protect you from a multi-year drawdown." So let's consider Buy & Hold or indexing between 1968 - 1982 where...
Berkshire's $1.3B Cost Basis vs $200B Amex Valuation
Berkshire's cost basis on American Express is $200 billion and Berkshire's owns ~22%. https://t.co/3YV1MjYH1A
Cyclicals at 25% Signal Upcoming Market Inflection
Each time this cluster reached ~44%, it represented extreme global concentration in growth/quality sectors. Historically, that 24–25% zone has marked secular lows in cyclicals/value share. When financials/energy/materials are ~25%: * They are structurally under-owned. * Valuations tend to be compressed. * Expectations are low. In 2000...
LEI/CEI Ratio Hits 60‑Year Low, Forecasting Recession
Every recession since 1960 has been preceded by a material downturn in this ratio. Today’s reading is squarely in that danger zone. These charts show the Leading Economic Index (LEI) against the Coincident Economic Index (CEI). The shaded bars...
0.78 Ratio Signals Modest Value Edge, Not Explosion
The blue line is Forward P/E of Value divided by Growth: * 1.0 = Value and Growth trade at the same forward P/E. * <1.0 = Value trades cheaper than Growth. * Lower = wider valuation spread favoring Growth. Historical 3–5 Year Returns: * When...
ETF 351 Seeding Risks: Top 10 Mistakes Highlighted
Lots of chatter on ETFs being seeded via 351. Makes sense-we've seen a large increase in activity (and press e.g., @justinaknope @denitsa_tsekova). Here is an older article that talks about the top 10 ways to screw these up. https://t.co/pcyPnnrYtg Note: Economic substance...
Spot the Hidden Great Rotation Before It Hits
Everyone’s chasing last year’s winners. The real move is under the surface. Leadership is rotating. Capital is rotating. By the time it’s obvious, it’s late. The Great Rotation is accelerating. Here’s what most investors are missing: https://t.co/Q38nu61vBB
Berkshire Will Buy Back Shares Below Intrinsic Value
Greg Abel: "Share repurchases are another important capital allocation option. We will buy back Berkshire shares when they trade below our estimate of intrinsic value, conservatively determined, ensuring that repurchases enhance per-share value for continuing owners."
2025 Portfolio Review: Hits, Misses, and Dollar Lessons
My annual portfolio review is one of my most read posts of the year. The 2025 edition is now live 📊 Did I hit my goals? 👉 The Good, The Bad and The Dollar 😉 Check it out here: 🔗 https://europeandgi.com/inspiration/2025-dividend-portfolio-review-the-good-the-bad-and-the-dollar/ Share ⏩ &...
Tepper Dissects Markets, AI, Capitalism, and Crisis
Our chat with Jonathan Tepper on: * Building a Dominant Long-Only Fund in a Distorted Market * Buying Booking at Peak Fear: COVID, Google & Mispriced Risk * Will AI Disintermediate the Platforms? * AI Winners, Losers & the SaaS Apocalypse * The Myth of...
Broad Market Breadth Improves, Favoring Value and Cyclicals
Second strong ISM NO print in a row. I'm not bullish, I'm BROADish. We see macro and micro breadth improving into 2027. Benefits to value, cyclicals, active management. https://t.co/geofWJYULy
Disney/Hulu/ESPN Integration Will Appear Easier than Expected
Prediction: this will make the Disney / Hulu / ESPN DTC integration, which has taken 5+ years and with a lot of tough decisions to make along the way, look like a walk in the park. And that's before considering...
GENB CEO Describes Emotional Whirlwind Going Public
2March: How did @generate_biomed CEO @mike_nally describe his whirlwind of emotions as his company went public? Read what he and CFO Jason Silvers, MD, JD said about $GENB plus updates on $CASIF, $NVAX, $PMVP & $SRPT in my latest StockWatch...
Geopolitical Shocks Bottom Fast, Recover in Weeks
Geopolitical shocks feel scary… but history says bottoms come faster than you think. Avg S&P drawdown: -4.6% Avg time to bottom: 19 days Avg recovery: 40 days 6–12 months later? Mostly positive.
Investing Deep Dive: Philosophy, Process, and Minimal AI
Fun to do this with my friend @tseides Minimal discussion of AI; much more of a focus on investing. Background, philosophy, process, etc. https://t.co/f8X30Hd4RY
80% of Revenue Target Already Contracted, AI Fears Dragging Stock
#DATA results look OK and interesting bit about 80% of Analyst target for revenue already contracted. ShareScope has fwd p/e 11.6 falling to 9.1 and fwd Divvy 1.8% rising to 2%; I suspect it's been weak due to AI fears....
Hedge Fund Star Credits Kahneman for 18-Year Winning Streak
1/ Brevan Howard's Minal Bathwal hasn't had a losing year since the start of his fund, 18 years ago. In a recent interview, he said that his style is influenced by psychologist Daniel Kahneman, including his book Thinking, Fast & Slow....
Historic Low Range Hints at Upcoming Market Volatility
This year is the smallest range EVER for the first two months of a new year at only 2.7% for the S&P 500. Pretty incredible when you look at all the big winners and losers out there, yet, the overall market...
L1 Group's Cost Cuts and Fund Surge Boost Appeal
A rare post about an Australian stock: L1 Group (L1G-ASX) which reverse-acquired my former employer last year, looks interesting. The stock is not optically cheap, but when you look at... 1. The run-rate cost savings (guiding to $30-$35m, ~75% of...
Jobs, Sales Data May Confirm Fed Rate Path Amid Tensions
Geopolitical shocks meet key labor and retail data this week. February jobs and January sales could seal the Fed's rate outlook amid Middle East tensions. 🟢 Open https://t.co/NUBk2v4rcI
Even Top Pickers Need Decades to Find Few Winners
🎯 It takes the best stock pickers in the world a few decades of owning hundreds or even thousands of stocks to find a handful that are worthy of holding long-term. https://t.co/KRxH9wKOSP
EPS Gains Prove Bull Market Still Strong
2027 EPS up another couple bucks the past two weeks. Yes, the headlines are scary, but this is why this bull market is alive and well. https://t.co/G1hArdVPz9
Success Hinges on Cash, Growth, and Capital Returns
What do the most successful companies have in common? They all excel in these three critical areas 1️⃣ Strong, predictable cash generation 2️⃣ Attractive growth opportunities 3️⃣ High returns on capital
Invest $145 Weekly, Retire with $1.4 M
The Roth IRA limit is $7,500 for 2026. That's $145/week. If you invest $145/week in an S&P 500 index fund for 30 years, you'll spend $225,000 of your own money. But at retirement you should have $1.4 million. That’s the power of compound interest.
Free Cash Flow Conversion Reveals True Economic Profit
"Free cash flow conversion separates accounting profits from economic profits." Most profits are fiction. Cash is truth. 💸 Free cash flow conversion separates accounting profits from real economic value — and serious investors know the difference.
SOFI's Explosive Growth Undermined by Inflation Fears
$SOFI - Lending Revenue $267M ➡️ $1.85B - Tech Platform $0 ➡️ $450M - Financial Services $1M ➡️ $1.54B - Members 652K ➡️ 13.65M - Lending Originations $11.7B ➡️ $36.4B But sure, sell the stock because inflation is a bit higher, or you don't like the...
Tel Aviv Index Rallies: 11‑Month Streak After Historic Dip
That’s 11 straight up months for Israel’s Tel Aviv 125 Index, and 19 of the last 20. The October 2023 capitulation turned out to be one of the greatest buying opportunities in stock market history. https://t.co/S7CKED4mYT
CEOs Become Risk Chiefs, Blame AI, Term Spread Narrows
🆓 Sunday links: CEO as Chief Risk Officer, blaming AI for job cuts, and the shrinking term spread. https://t.co/4BDeewwVe5 chart: https://t.co/nJv6ecVuec https://t.co/rixP9PqbVA
Micro‑Cap Index Hits Record High Amid Weak Market
The market is so weak and turning so defensive that the Micro-cap Index is now up for ten consecutive months, and just closed the month at the highest level in history. https://t.co/R0UyyR24z2
Prophet Strategy Surges 1,982% Since 2008 Launch
On the day we launched Prophet publicly in December 2024, it was already up 1,640% from the date the strategy was first implemented in Dec '08. Now it's up 1,982% -- or ~20% since Dec '24. But the best is...
Growth Stocks Thrive Outside Mag 7, Defying Bearish Outlook
There's nothing wrong with being defensive until we see better accumulation in the Nasdaq, but I'm not getting bearish because there are so many growth stocks (outside of the Mag 7) that are in strong uptrends. More here in this...
Carbon Markets Near Turning Point; Investors Unprepared
Carbon markets are at an inflection point. Policy momentum. Capital rotation. Tightening supply. Most investors aren’t positioned for what’s next. Read this before the crowd catches on: https://t.co/axCJ40q8bX cc: @LukeAOliver @kraneshares
China Sales Plunge From Half to Just 3%
Former $FND CEO Tom Taylor, August 2021 - "Three years ago [in FY18], almost 50% of what we sold came out of China; today, it is less than 30%." Q4 FY25 call - "China represented ~3% of our fourth quarter receipts." https://t.co/9Bv96S1bvH
Late-February S&P Dips Historically Precede Major Lows
Looking at the past 20 years, it is perfectly normal for S&P 500 weakness in late February and into mid-March, then a major low forms. Yes, 2009 and 2020 are a big reason why, still worth noting. https://t.co/di2DeekJx8