Stay Invested, Avoid Panic for Stock Success
Peter Lynch: “The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.” Takeaway: Staying invested beats reacting emotionally. Most investors don’t fail because they’re wrong — they fail because they panic. 📉
300th Stock Club: Revisiting 13‑stock Legacy, New 10‑year Picks
Our 300th episode of Stock Club has dropped. Mike and I review the 13 stock portfolio from an early show 7 years ago (it has one 24 bagger in it) — and we each pitch three to buy now and...
Semiconductor Index Delivered Over Tenfold Returns Decade‑Long
The PHLX Semiconductor index: ASML, TSMC, Texas Instruments, AMD, Nvidia, NXP, Qorvo, Qualcomm, Applied Materials, Broadcom etc. More than a ten-bagger in the past decade https://t.co/P0OKb3JVYf
Activist Pressure, Not Weak Yen, Drives Real Improvements
Seems to me that the biggest improvements have been in firms: - Shamed into increasing their P/B to 1.0x - Targeted by shareholder activists like Oasis - Already had the right mindset, eg Hitachi / Itochu - Illusory improvement from the weak yen https://t.co/KxTgEB3c9O https://t.co/DoX7UvP2gs
AI Panic Drops Software Stocks, Yet Engineer Demand Rises
Software stocks are cratering on fears AI will destroy their business. Yet job postings for software engineers are up 11% year over year. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/7PaTI6jR9W
Snowflake Beats Estimates, Shows AI-Driven Growth
$SNOW revenue, RPO and guidance came in ahead of consensus and the WSJ headline says company benefiting from AI adoption. This is the point we've been making for several weeks... some infrastructure software businesses are beneficiaries of AI. https://t.co/dX1lJsYfye
Japanese Managers Lack Equity, Limiting Market Discipline
I think reading through Jim Grant's old books with snippets from his newsletter is great market education. You'll get perspective on the current market environment.
Hardware, Cybersecurity Thrive; AI Compresses Software Services
The Goldman Sachs list of AI winners & losers: Supposed winners: - Cloudflare - CrowdStrike - Palo Alto Networks - Oracle - Microsoft - Amazon - Alphabet - Nvidia - TSMC - Micron - Arista Networks - Palantir - Zoom - Vertiv - Eaton - NextEra Energy Supposed losers: - https://t.co/yZK0mvfWhp - Salesforce - DocuSign - Accenture - Duolingo - Workday - SAP - Atlassian - UiPath -...
Small‑cap Rally Signals Leadership Rotation, Not Squeeze
Small caps just hit record highs. While everyone chases mega-cap AI, leadership may already be rotating. That’s not a squeeze. It’s a signal. @JDHatfield_ICAP @InfraCap explain why it matters: https://t.co/11ZhJg1jL3
Mag‑7 Premium Plummets From 100% to 10‑year Low
The Mag-7 used to trade at a 100% premium over the rest of the S&P. It's now collapsed to a 10-year low. Do you realize what's happening?
NVIDIA Projects Tenfold Revenue Surge by FY27
On Q1 FY27 guidance, NVIDIA TTM revenues of ~$250 billion. Three years ago (in Q1 FY24), TTM revenues were $25.9 billion. https://t.co/n7nDwriJvG
Big‑Cap S&P Leaders 50% More Volatile Than Index
The top 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 are 50% more volatile than the S&P 500 itself right now. Important for risk... but more important for alpha right now. https://t.co/yqBR2QU8nK
Flatbed Rejection Spike Signals Bullish Industrial Growth
This is an extreme spike in the SONAR Truckload Rejection Index – Flatbed (STRIF.USA) from 2018–2026. A 40% rejection rate means: * Strong industrial throughput * Tight labor + equipment capacity * Improving pricing power in physical economy * Early/mid expansion phase dynamics It usually leads: *...
Hindenburg Mentions Rarely Signal Imminent Market Bottom
Similar to the November lows, when they all start saying the word Hindenburg often, you know we are close to lows. We've seen 225 Hindenburg Omens since 1970 and if you look closely you'll see the great majority of them...
Depressed Oil‑Gold Ratio Signals Multi‑Year Energy Outperformance
Oil peaked in 2008 at $140 and has fallen sideways since to ~$65 today. In hard-money gold terms, 1 ounce buys 100 barrels of oil. Oil has been deflating for decades. The only time it was cheaper was 2020 when...
Co‑Packaged Optics Dominate Top Winners This Year
Just keeps going $FORM Seeing this Co-Packaged Optics discussed across a bunch of big winners this year https://t.co/sosRLrP3tq
Mid- and Small-Cap Tech Surge Amid Large-Cap Decline
Despite Large-cap Technology stocks down over the past 4-5 months, both the Mid-cap Tech and Small-cap Tech indexes keep hitting new all-time highs this week. https://t.co/X2wjg3v8Qp
EM Earnings Surge 31% YoY, Outpacing US and Commodities
One way to visualize the global earnings convergence is by showing earnings estimates for the different regions on a log scale. All estimates are rising but EM estimates are rising the fastest. Shown another way, EM estimates are now rising at...
Balance Stocks and Bonds: Market Equilibrium Drives Wealth
Jack Bogle’s investing wisdom still holds true: when you lower your stock allocation and raise bonds, someone else is doing the opposite. That’s how market equilibrium works. Understanding asset allocation, the 60/40 portfolio, and index investing is key to long-term...
Profit in Bull Markets Requires Capital Preservation Mastery
Bull markets will make you a lot of money. But you need to be mature enough to understand capital preservation. Most people lose because they only learn the first half of the game.
SpaceX Poised to Deliver Broadband Cheaper than Any Alternative
Dan Sundheim on SpaceX: "The telecom market globally is now the TAM... They've come so far down the cost curve that I think in a relatively short time - months or a few years - they'll be dramatically cheaper than...
Uber Aggregates Robotaxis, Offering a Leveraged AV Bet
Uber isn’t building robotaxis. It’s aggregating them. That changes everything. $UBRL may be a leveraged bet on the entire AV ecosystem. Read why: https://t.co/uYTNGDwJMe @willrhind @graniteshares
Buy the Dip, Sell the Rally: Disciplined Growth Rules
I’m 62 years old and previously worked as a financial analyst at Morgan Stanley. After decades in the market, here are my simple rules for beginners: 📉 If it drops 5% → Hold 📉 If it drops 15% → Add 10% 📉 If it...
UPS Surpasses Median Forecast, Near 90% Target
Our fundamental team use the Monte Carlo simulation to derive a 12 month projection In September when $UPS was at $84, we shared our analysis The Median target was $106 The 90% percentile was $147 Price hit $120 recently We combine our fundamental analysis...
Broad Market Wins: Can't Beat VOO Long-Term
This AI is gonna kill software trade echoes the "Death of the Mall" trade from 10yrs ago which was to go long $AMZN and short $XRT (brick and mortar). ProShares made $CLIX, $EMTY and $ONLN to do trade for you....
Country Exposures Keep Outperforming the S&P 500
CHART OF THE DAY: Our Country Exposures Continue To Outperform $SPY Monkeys https://t.co/xvYrId3oap via @hedgeye
Diageo NA Sales Fall 7% Amid Tequila Competition
Diageo North America 1H FY26 organic net sales down ~7% YoY "Consumer wallet pressure and competitiveness in tequila" https://t.co/BHQJiiv6lk
Cathie Wood's 40% CAGR Promise Turns Negative
In December 2021, Cathie Wood remarked that her flagship fund, with its best-in-class research, could deliver a 40% CAGR over the next five years. As we surpass the 4Y mark, they are hitting a negative 6.5% CAGR.
Airport Terminal Signals Strong Growth for Fairfax India
Check out the airport terminal in the beginning of this video and you’ll understand why I’m bullish Fairfax India https://t.co/KDIukR4iLv
Microcap Success Demands Independent, Self‑driven Research
Successful microcap investors are always independent minded people. They are used to no analyst coverage, no institutional following, no liquidity - no safety net. They are used to doing their own work and building their own conviction. It's why most...
Holding, Not Trading, Generates Real Investment Returns
Benjamin Graham: “The real money in investing will have to be made not out of buying and selling, but of owning and holding securities.” Takeaway: Compounding rewards commitment. Most investors lose money not because they pick bad stocks — but because they...
Retail Lithium Investors Should Prioritize Proven Production Assets
Nobody likes to hear it but these are dangerous times for retail #lithium investors that throw money at projects that shouldn’t (and ultimately won’t) be built. Buy quality assets - currently producing or with a clear path to production. Traders?...
Indonesian-Chinese Shift Assets to Singapore, I’d Follow
You can tell that Indonesian-Chinese have moved assets to Singapore the past year. I would have done the same.
Vin Murria Vehicle Appears Cheap After Cash Strip
#ADVT "ahead of market consensus". 80% Recurring. £96m Cash. ShareScope has fwd p/e 14.7 falling to 14.2 but no Dividend, BEFORE 6% rise today. Strip out cash looks cheap. This is the Vin Murria vehicle. I don't hold.
Copper Price Spikes; Maintain Long CPER Position
Dr. Copper inflates again and we remain long of it in $CPER terms @RPKent $HBM https://t.co/amj1QWvmMl
Half‑Owned OM2 Trades at 0.1× EV/EB
S foods owns 48% of this 7614.T OM2, what the heck is this thing still doing listed. 0.1x EV/EBTIDA. the decimal is not a mistake. https://t.co/vQ1k9VL2Yk
Public Bank Posts Record Profit, Highest Dividend Yield
Public Bank. Highest Annual Net Profit •4Q Net Profit RM1.88b, up 2% •Total 2025 RM7.22bn, highest ever. •ROE ~12%, upper league among banks •Div 12 sen, 2025 total 22.5 sen (2024: 21 sen). Record high div payout ~60%. Annual div yield around...
MicroStrategy Tops Short List, $9.5B Bitcoin Loss
According to Goldman Sachs, shares of MicroStrategy are currently the most shorted among U.S.-listed stocks. Amid the crypto downturn, the company’s unrealized loss on its $BTC holdings has recently exceeded $9,500,000,000. https://t.co/cTdZMYj9A7
Emerging Markets Outpace US Stocks Since 2024 Peak
🚨Have US stocks PEAKED? The US stocks versus emerging market equities ratio has been falling for the last 15 months, after peaking in November 2024. Over this period, emerging market stocks have returned +48% while the S&P 500 delivered just +15%👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-stock-market-has-peaked
Foreigners Still Buying US Assets Despite Dollar Weakness
Foreign stocks are beating US stocks and the dollar is weakening, yet foreigners bought $1.4 trillion in US securities last year. The selling wave everyone is talking about isn't showing up in the data. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/yXliX9IMIO
Liquidity, Not Earnings, Halts Market Rally
What happened to the stock market? The market rally has come to a HALT. Earnings and innovation are not the problem, liquidity is.
Holding Is an Active Choice, Not Inaction
Buying and selling feel easier than holding because we are wired to believe activity = productivity. Holding is hard because it feels like inaction and complacency. But every day holding is an active decision.
Bonds Poised to Surprise in 2026 as Growth Cools
Bonds may be setting up the surprise of 2026. Equities own the narrative. Duration owns the asymmetry. If growth cools, fixed income becomes leadership. Framework here: https://t.co/NWtS4ggYI5 @JDHatfield_ICAP @InfraCap
Dollar Weakness Shifts Next Bull Market Beyond America
The next bull market may not be American. Dollar weakness changes leadership. If the dollar is in a structural bear, global diversification stops being optional. Capital rotates. Narratives lag. Read the full framework: https://t.co/RJWIidZeAI @DynamicAlphaSol
Explore Industry Ranks to Track Stock Rotations
I just posted a tutorial on the new @Deepvue Industry Ranks Feature.| Track rotation, dive deeper to find leading stocks, and see themes as they develop 👇 https://t.co/RtfsckwAaF
US Mega Caps and International Stocks Yield Identical 55% Gains
US mega caps and international stocks... same return since the start of 2024 $XLG $VEU +55% https://t.co/ivvWB6wtEx
Capex Share Rises, Yet Dividends Remain Intact
Companies are spending more of their revenues on capex, and so far, this hasn’t come at the expense of either dividends or buybacks. At the bottom in 2022, companies were spending 5.4% of their revenues on capex, and that has...
Story‑Driven Investors Face DAT Decline, Elevator Demand Rises
🆓 Tuesday links: narrative-loving investors, the end of the DAT boom, and growing demand for elevators. https://t.co/vZ3ezyQCtk chart: https://t.co/tgBy66cSK7 https://t.co/E3cZ7Gtawi
Stay Calm: Markets Build Wealth Over Time
The stock market is a great wealth builder over the long run, as long as you can resist panicking during downturns. https://t.co/o8C03pFJqy
Earnings Beats Keep 40‑Month Bull Market Alive
The earnings picture has continuedto provide support for this now 40-month old bull market. With Q4 earnings season soon wrapping up (with 425 companies having reported), 75% have beaten estimates by an average of 773 bps. The dollar estimate has...