Value
Value stocks (Tony Gwynn): higher batting average, fewer bankruptcies, fewer grand slams. Growth stocks (Dave Kingman): lower batting average, more bankruptcies, more grand slams. https://t.co/4Wo2q59IVU https://t.co/6gIBOYiA84
OKLO's P/S Ratio Remains Steady Amid Market Swings
For all the talk about markets ignoring potent catalysts and being untethered from fundamentals, I’ll note that OKLO’s price-to-sales ratio has been unchanged through its ups and downs.
LSEG: Undervalued Data Powerhouse Offering 15‑20% Returns
Is the London Stock Exchange Group $LSEG the ultimate "all-weather" compounder hiding in plain sight? With a clear path to 15-20% annualized returns, the shift from a legacy exchange to a data powerhouse is hit with a valuation dislocation. https://www.compoundwithrene.com/p/deep-dive-london-stock-exchange-group
Value Stocks at Historic Discount, Poised for Outperformance
Valuation spreads (how cheaply value stocks trade relative to growth stocks) measured as the Price/Book ratio of value stocks divided by growth stocks in the US. "On average, US value stocks have traded at a 78% discount (i.e., 22 cents on...
Only Ten Stocks Combine 25% ROIC and 20% EPS Growth
Just doing some research and screened for companies with BOTH: • ROIC > 25% • Expected EPS growth > 20% per year for the next 5 years Extremely hard to find this level of capital efficiency + explosive growth. Here are the 10 quality...
5% Dip Is Normal; Expect 14% Average Drops
Over the last 75 years, the average intra-year market drop has been 14%. If you are overly stressed out about the current 5% drawdown, the stock market isn’t for you. Downside volatility is the price investors pay for long-term outperformance....
Buffett's Rule: Skip Hype, Hunt Undervalued Fundamentals
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett's strategy? Stay away from flashy stocks, and assess fundamentals to find undervalued ones. https://t.co/qsceHG36d7
Ask the Right Questions to See Through the Market
5 questions that separate investors who see the market from investors who see through it. Swipe. Same data, completely different intelligence depending on your role. Which question would change your allocation this quarter? https://t.co/jl0egsdwNw
Seize Rare Opportunities with Great Managers or Regret
“So you do get an occasional opportunity to get into a wonderful business that’s being run by a wonderful manager. And, of course, that’s hog heaven day. If you don’t load up when you get those opportunities, it’s a big...
Lynch’s 10 Principles: Simple Rules Over Economic Overanalysis
Peter Lynch once said: "If you spend 14 minutes a year thinking about economics, you have just wasted 12 minutes." Here are his 10 investing principles to navigate uncertainty:
Avoid Emerging Market Indexes: Consistently Underperforming
1/ I've said it before and will say it again: avoid EM index investing. Their performance has lagged, both in the short-term and in the ultra-long run. https://t.co/MkPIAWW0Jf
Estimating Billion‑Dollar Price Tag for Anthropic's
If you were Ken Griffin, how much would you pay Anthropic to do this? Feel free to round to the nearest billion.
Big Positions Blur Reality—Stay Rational, Stay Grounded
The biggest issue with holding big positions (winners and losers) is when you lose your rationality. You only see what you want to see or hope the business to be, not what it actually is. You must always stay anchored...
AI Dismantles Old Moats, Builds New Competitive Barriers
Charlie Munger: "It’s probably a natural part of the modern economic system that the old moats stop working." 2020 Daily Journal AGM AI eliminating or reducing the effectiveness of some moats is inevitable. New moats being created in an AI...
Three S&P 500 Headwinds, One Overlooked Indicator Each
The S&P 500 has 3 headwinds right now. Most investors are only watching one. Here's what all 3 are, and the single indicator for each that tells you if it's getting better or worse 🧵
HALO Stocks Just Rebranded Value‑Growth Rotation, Not AI‑Proof
HALO stocks — Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence — are being sold as a new AI-proof strategy. But Goldman's own data shows the trade tracks value vs. growth almost perfectly. A familiar rotation with a fresh acronym. I've taken a closer...
High ROIC and Strong Interest Coverage Drive Stock Returns
ROIC, and ROA and ROE are the strongest predictors of stock performance. Each measures how efficiently a company converts capital into profits. Interest Coverage (EBIT / interest expense) captures financial strength and ability to service debt. Markets reward companies that: • generate high...
McKinsey Issues Strong Buy on Lemonade Stock
Without mentioning the company @Lemonade_Inc once, @McKinsey puts out a strong buy recommendation for $LMND. Link in next post https://t.co/HNNT5cRiNy
Capital Gains Outpace Labor, Concentrating Wealth and Power
Take a look at these two charts together. One is income concentration (Top 10% share of consumption v Bottom 80%), the other is equity market concentration (S&P 500 Growth vs Value weight). In the last 15 years, surplus flowed to capital,...
Skip Risky Trades; Invest in Undervalued, Long-Term Stocks
Don’t day trade Don’t use options Don’t use leverage Don’t use margin Buy undervalued companies & focus on the long term What’s so difficult about this?
Mid‑Cap Value Gems Thrive Outside Tech, Guided by Gentle Activism
Our chat with "gentleman activist" Alexander Roepers on: * Alexander Roepers’ Value Investing Strategy * Why Alexander Roepers Avoids Tech, Biotech, and Financial Stocks * Why Europe and Japan Offer Hidden Value Investing Opportunities * Three Catalysts That Unlock Value in Mid-Cap Stocks * The...
Adobe's Strong Fundamentals Counter AI‑Fear Concerns
$ADBE Q1 2026 Adobe has been getting hit with the AI fear. Investors are worried that software will start to lose market share as AI becomes increasingly more popular. $ADBE fundamentally though is strong. What are your thoughts, is it...
Big Gains Come From Rare Deep Market Corrections
Since 1950, the average drawdown in the S&P 500 has been 14% in a calendar year, and drawdowns of at least 10% have occurred in 37 of the past 75 years. 20%+ corrections have occurred in 11 out of the past...
Missing 10 Best S&P Days Halves Your Returns
Every time the market goes down, I'm always reminded of this chart. It was created by Visual Capitalist in 2023. It shows the impact on an investor's return by simply missing the 10 best days of the S&P 500's returns...
Equities' Future Value Lies in Expected Cash Flows
One of the best articulations of the long-term economics question in equities right now. We sleep on a bed of prosperity lined with the expectation of future cash flows.
2026 Equity Risk Premium Update for Practitioners Released
The equity risk premium (ERP) is an essential ingredient in hurdle rates in corporate finance, discount rates in valuation and expected returns in financial planning. In 2009, I pulled together everything I know about the ERP, in a paper that...
Capital‑light Models Boost Returns on Reinvested Cash
"Capital-light models amplify the power of reinvested cash flows." 💡 Want your money to work harder without tying up massive capital? Capital-light investment models are game-changers.l
Higher Stock Returns Reward Higher Risk
The only reason why stocks have a higher long-term return than bonds and cash is to compensate investors for taking on the greater risk of uncertainty, volatility and drawdowns along the way. Without this risk there would be no higher reward....
Trim the Bulk, Let Outliers Drive Returns
The 80/20 rule is just a Power Law in disguise. Often, in a portfolio: 📈 20% of your holdings will drive 80% of your returns. 📉 80% of your stress will come from 20% of your "average" bets. The secret to long-term success? Cutting...
Tech Gap, AI Disruption, and Defense Supercycle Insights
We covered a lot of ground this week on @excessreturnpod with new interviews featuring Jim Paulsen, Vitaliy Katsenelson, and Joseph Shaposhnik. @CultishCreative and I highlight the best moments and break down the biggest lessons. https://t.co/Hklp9wx0tH • The growing gap between tech and the...
Foreign Value Stocks Cheap Due to Lack of Ownership
Foreign value stocks are cheap but nobody owns any, which is probably why they are cheap, which is probably why nobody owns any. https://t.co/xW57r2cQMq via @followMFS https://t.co/CPa6Gwx7K8
Vanguard Predicts 4.8% Annual Return for US Large Caps
Vanguard forecasts US large caps to return 4.8% annually over the next decade. Large-cap growth: 3.9% https://t.co/THci6XvvJc
Shift4 Payments: 7x FCF and 20%+ Growth
New writeup: Shift4 Payments: A Fintech Compounder Trading Like a Melting Ice Cube 7x free cash flow for a business compounding at 20%+ $FOUR Link in bio https://t.co/R6SWOw4hoQ
UBS Projects 9.5% Total Return for AV by 2028
'Investors' Chronicle' p39 this week mentions UBS expectation of a 9.5% yield from #AV. for 2028, comprising Dividend payment and Share Buybacks.
Group Investments by Risk, Not Asset Class, for Smoother Returns
How a "total portfolio approach" that groups investments by risk and performance characteristics (rather than asset class) could lead to a smoother ride for investors (@JasonKephart | @MorningstarInc) More curated articles on investment planning this #WeekendReading: https://t.co/L80cXNYxuT
Invest Early, Retire Richer: 10 Years Beats 25
This is crazy: If you are 35 and start investing $5k/yr and stop at 60, you will have ~$431,754 (8%/yr assumption) But if you are 25, start investing $5k/yr and stop at 35, you will have ~$615,580 at 60 (8%/yr assumption) $75k less...
Invest by Following Crowds Selectively, Seek Misunderstood Resilient Niches
As Charles Mackay observed in 1841, "Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one." We are social creatures whose...
SEC Filings Reveal Insider Truth Others Overlook
Reading SEC filings that clarify an inside view others remain willfully blind to... how's your Saturday going?
IREN Valued at 5
$IREN 2028 Estimates: - Revenue $4B - EBITDA $3.1B $16.6B market cap, means $IREN trades 5x 2028 EBITDA. What is a fair multiple for $IREN?
Diversify Beyond Equities: Gold, Capital Efficiency Boost Models
Yes, we are overweight equities, but it is the other stuff that has really helped our models. @sonusvarghese wrote this back in August on how we were thinking about gold, capital efficiency, and managed futures in a portfolio.
Small‑Cap Value Beats Growth as Boring Sectors Rise
Small-cap growth dominated for years on speculation and unprofitable names. That trade is stalling. Q4 2025: small-cap value quietly outperformed growth for the first time in years. Insurance. Regional banks. Business services. The boring stuff is waking up. @InfraCap @JDHatfield_ICAP break it down: https://t.co/atAM4Pmj2y
Preserve Capital: Reallocate and Lock in Profits
It’s important to reallocate and manage your portfolio correctly as your positions grow. A lot of retail investors fail to crystallize profits. Manage your money correctly and remember the first rule is always preserve capital. Follow @thelonginvestor #investsmart #howtoinvest #stockmarkettips
HIMS Poised to Be Top 2026 Market Opportunity
$HIMS at $15 in 2026 will prove to be one of the best opportunities in the market this year. 💪🏻🚀
Markets Crash Hard; Stick to Strategy and Keep Cash
During Dot Com crash (2000-2002) the S&P 500 dropped ~49%. During Financial Crisis (2007-2009) market dropped ~57%. During 1973-1974 bear market, it dropped 48%. We don’t just go up all the time. During bad times, you have to stick to your job &...
Great Returns Can Hide Dangerous Stock Concentration
François Rochon is a well known investment manager who has compounded at ~15% annualized for 30 years (!) In 2002 though he was much more obscure. A single stock was 20% of his portfolio. Below he shares his thoughts on...
Buffett & Munger Reveal True Cost of Equity
Most investors misunderstand the cost of equity. Below is the most explicit Buffett has ever been on his cost of equity... BUT the real insights come from Charlie Munger's push back and Buffett's Punch Card Idea ⬇️Link⬇️
Value Stocks Outperform Even in AI-Driven Market
Value investing is alive and well. The indices (S&P & Russell) have cap, sector and factor-selection biases that mask the performance of classic investment strategies. Buying a cross-sectional (sector-neutral basket) of cheap stocks has outperformed over time, and even during...
DLO’s Fundamentals Soar Despite 64% Price Plunge
$DLO - Stock Price -64% 🔴 - EBITDA +595% 🟢 - Gross Profit +517% 🟢 - Payment Volumes +1,616% 🟢 “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
Markets Enter Regime Change, Not Crash, Amid Slow Repricing
$SPY at 2026 lows. Dow below 47K. The "buy the dip" crowd has gone very quiet. This is what a regime change looks like. Not a crash. Just a slow, grinding repricing of risk. https://t.co/p01B1V5aNG
Karat Packaging Posts Record Q4 Sales, Boosts Profit
Solid report from small/micro Karat Packaging $KRT, a specialty distributor and manufacturer of environmentally friendly, disposable foodservice products. A way to play the growth in food delivery businesses like Grubhub, Uber Eats, DoorDash etc and take-out. Has a small ongoing buyback. Fourth Quarter...