Shift From Efficient Frontier to Temporal Risk Management
I created a tool to visualize your sequence risk in a portfolio. We talk a lot about the "efficient frontier", but the EF turns investing into a performance chasing and alpha optimization problem. The average investor doesn't care about this (and most active managers can't find it in the first place). The average investor wants to know their TEMPORAL risks across the portfolio. "When can I pay for X?" The Defined Duration Frontier flips the conversation from one about portfolio optimization to sequence risk mitigation thereby helping people understand how their asset allocation actually helps them understand the temporal risks within the portfolio.
Bumble's Cash Flow Outpaces Valuation, Fueling Short Squeeze
Bumble is printing cash. Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $71.6m vs $63m guidance. Guides for $78m adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026. Just $413m net debt end of 2026. No cash taxes for the foreseeable future. Should do ~$200m FCF in 2026...
Hold Index Funds Through Volatility, Not Market Predictions
Buying and holding index funds through highs and lows is a great strategy. But i bet if you saw this chart in 2013- You would've guessed the market is about to crash.
Market Stays Resilient Despite Decade‑Long S&P Drawdowns
S&P 500 peak-to-trough drawdowns this decade: 2020 -33.9% 2021 -5.2% 2022 -25.4% 2023 -10.3% 2024 -8.5% 2025 -18.9% 2026 -3.4% (so far) Why isn't the market falling more? Why are investors ignoring the headlines? Are we due for a correction? https://t.co/4VHwh9ODKB https://t.co/jZPvMOVHiI
Small and Mid Caps Ultra‑cheap, Primed for Multi‑year Rally
Valuation dispersion is extreme. Small and mid caps are producing strong earnings but trading at crisis-like valuation discounts. This is still one of the largest valuation gaps in decades. * Mid caps trade 21% cheaper than large caps * Small caps trade 26%...
Price Alone Misleads; Focus on Earnings Power
I’ve been bullish on $AVGO for years, and it has continued to perform exceptionally. The temptation of every investor is to look at a stock that has performed this well and simply assume the opportunity has passed. But the reality is that...
Lilly's Market Cap per Employee Rivals Tech Giants
One fun takeaway from my Lilly story: looking at $LLY from a market cap/employee ratio. Far more in line with tech giants like $META $GOOG $MSFT than pharma peers like $MRK $AZN $PFE: https://t.co/pVIADCH8AU https://t.co/FJE8JLIrmO
SaaS Giants Trade at Sky‑high EV/Sales Multiples
15 Most expensive SaaS stocks by Forward EV/Sales $PLTR — Palantir — 51x $NET — Cloudflare — 26x $APP — AppLovin — 21x $CRWD — CrowdStrike — 18x $FICO — Fair Isaac — 15x $AXON — Axon Enterprise — 13x $SHOP — Shopify — 12x $DDOG —...
Market at Fair Value After 4% S&P Pullback
In order to help us visualize the various stress points in the market (and in case they get worse), I created several dashboards over the weekend. First up is the commodity & currency heat map. From left to right are the...
Broadcom Undervalued AI Play Targets $460
Check in – Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) Recommendation: STRONG BUY Price: $342.58 Intrinsic Fair Value: ~$450 (anchored on 25–27x 2026E EPS ~$17.51) 12-Month Price Target: $440–$460 (Base, +28–34%) Current Signal: TACTICAL BUY Entry Zone: $325–$335 (50-DMA support pullback) Fair Pricing: AVGO trades at 19.7x forward EPS amid 57% guided...
Energy's S&P Share Drops, Hedge Disappears
"In the 1970s, energy equities at 25% of the S&P provided a natural portfolio hedge — as oil rose, energy stocks rose with it, partially insulating diversified investors. At 3%, that internal offset has all but vanished." Jeff Currie of @OneCarlyle
Passive Investors Sell Value, Buy Pricey Stocks—Uncover True Value
The recent rotation from growth to “value”, passive investors, in actuality, are selling value stocks to buy expensive stocks. Confused? In this follow-up, we take our three-tier earnings valuation framework, introduced in the article, a step further to uncover...
Buffett Says Pricing Power Is Business’s Top Driver
1/ Here are the key takeaways from Markus Husemann-Kopetzky on Pricing If Buffett thinks pricing power is the most important factor of any business, then surely we should pay attention to it https://t.co/fOStBwEZMt
Automate Small Paycheck Investments for Long-Term Growth
Every time you get paid, take a specific amount ($10, $20, $100, etc) and invest it. Don't know what to buy? Start with simple index funds, like VOO or VTI. Ideally, you should invest before your paycheck even hits (e.g 401k) Automate the...
Japan SaaS Stocks at 80‑90% Discount: Potential Generational Play
Many of Japan's leading SAAS companies are trading 80-90% below their 2021 peaks. Could this be a generational opportunity for investors? In the clip below hear Isabella Foley discuss Forager Funds Management's investment in a US$240m market cap healthcare SAAS firm that...
Oil Shocks Historically Slash Equity Valuations
Taking a look back to the 1930’s, we can see the various oil spikes over time. The top panel shows the 5-year CAPE ratio, and the bottom panel shows nominal oil prices in brown, and inflation-adjusted oil prices in purple...
Stagflation Looms as Iran Tensions Test Market Resilience
With the conflict in Iran becoming seemingly more contracted, the markets seem to be pricing in a less benign outcome despite what has been a Goldilocks backdrop of robust earnings growth, rising margins and productivity, hefty capex spending, an easing...
Higher‑Vol Strategies Shift Burden, Damage Manager Track Record
A lot of people ask me for higher volatility alternatives for "capital efficiency" reasons. And on it's face, it makes sense. Instead of putting $100 in a 10% vol strategy, you can just put $25 in a 40% vol strategy. But there are...
NVIDIA’s $120B Earnings Make Now Ideal Entry
NVIDIA makes $120 billion in net income a year. The stock is down from its highs. One week before the most watched event in AI — GTC 2026 — this may be the best entry point in over a year....
Large‑Cap Valuations at Historic Premium Over Small‑Mid Caps
The large-cap valuation premium is still near historical extremes. Large caps are trading at a ~28–36% premium to small and mid caps. That’s historically wide outside of the late-1990s tech bubble. The chart tracks forward P/E ratios for three indices: * Red: S&P 500...
Value Investing Returns Amid Historic Growth Cycle
We are in the midst of one of the largest growth cycles in modern history. Has the switch finally been flipped back to value in 2026?
Deep Research Jumpstarts Investment Thesis Evaluation
Deep research can save so much time evaluating an investment thesis You can't rely on it entirely, but an awesome start https://t.co/PLQyWBlnS1
AI-Driven Quant Models and Two Defensive Strategies
🔬 Research links: building quant models, the proper use of AI, and a look at two defensive strategies. https://t.co/Dgs1We8thJ chart: https://t.co/zEEeAwtzS4 https://t.co/8FlBmkGAR6
BPI's Long-Term Appeal Threatened by Rate Cuts
BPI feels like a long term winner. Then again, the Bangko Sentral is lowering rates and NIM compression should follow
Screen Out 95% of Stocks with Six Simple Metrics
Use these criteria to eliminate 95% of stocks: Revenue growth 12% Shares outstanding <2% Net debt to FCF below 5x Free cash flow growth +15% Return on Invested capital +15% Earnings per share growth +15%
Chase Durable ROIC, Not Just Growth
"Durable ROIC is the economic signature of a high-quality business". Most investors chase growth. The best investors chase durable ROIC. 📈 Return on Invested Capital tells you how efficiently a company turns capital into profits—and the durable part is what separates great...
Energy Stocks Stay Resilient Amid Wild Oil Swing
Wild. A $35 swing in oil prices in one day. Smells fishy... Oil and gas stocks held up remarkably well despite all this. A reminder that silver experienced similar volatility and is now settling at levels well above any point in...
90% of Fund Managers Lag S&P—We Don't Need Them
Not only rich but an elite investor because over any reasonable period of time the vast majority of equity fund managers, like 90%, will underperform the S&P 500. We don’t need them. And I’ll never understand why capitalism hasn’t pointed...
Market Bottomed 17 Years Ago; Now up Tenfold
The stock market bottomed out 17 years ago today. The market is up 10-fold since then (incl divs). https://t.co/SZqfiM1kX3
Buy the Dip: Invest More as Markets Fall
You can't pick a stock market bottom, you can only pick a stock market discount. The strategy for investing is simple: 1. Always stay invested at an asset allocation 2. If the stock market falls 25%/50%/75%, invest 25% of the allocation not...
Tech Investment Gains Spotlighted in Broadcom Analysis
Ray Wang makes the case for investing in tech https://t.co/Xc0L0HR1qL @FoxBusiness @cvpayne @rwang0 of @constellationr discusses @Broadcom's quarter, mega-cap buys, stock-based compensation and more on 'Making Money.' https://t.co/R7sDw6EAZn
Utility Investors Warn Against Expanding Risk Responsibilities
Greg Abel: “We see a bigger issue in the utility industry: does the regulatory compact continue to exist? We deploy capital into these businesses, and we receive a return that is reflective of us taking a certain amount of risk....
Brazil's Market Near Historic Lows, Poised for Capital Influx
Brazil’s CAPE ratio is approaching one of the most undervalued levels in its history. The Brazilian equity market is nearly as cheap as it was at major historical bottoms — the early 2000s and the political crisis of 2015–16. This is a...
Buy Quality Stocks Amid Uncertainty, Not Certainty
Great to be on @SquawkCNBC this morning - if you wait until absolute certainty you will miss some great stocks on sale. Find quality companies with strong balance sheets, great mkt share and good TAMs to add on the...
Buy and Hold S&P 500: $10k Grows to $1.9M
$10,000 in the S&P 500 in 1980 → $1,899,400 today. No day trading. No stock picking. No market timing. Just buy, hold, and let time do the work. Compounding is undefeated.
Small‑Cap Banks Undervalued, Big Banks Overpriced, Deep Value Wins
Long/short financials investor Derek Pilecki of @gatorcapital on: * Why Small Cap Banks Are So Cheap Right Now * Why the U.S. Has Thousands of Banks * His Deep Value Strategy in Financial Stocks * Why Big Banks Are Expensive and Small Banks Are...
Rethinking Balanced Portfolios: Beyond Equity and Bond Premia
Traditionally, balanced portfolios rely on the equity and bond risk premia to generate returns. But is there a potentially better way? by @ebasilico https://t.co/dVYUQ1cXTI https://t.co/dSGBs4QvXo
Recurring Collapse Patterns Reveal True Market Drivers
3 patterns that repeat every single time a growth stock collapses, and Tesla, Bitcoin and Palantir are all showing them right now. The Efficient Markets Hypothesis tells you the market gets the pricing right. I have spent decades showing why that...
From 57% Plunge to 400% Gain in 11 Years
17 years ago today the S&P 500 bottomed after losing nearly 57%. That started an 11 year long bull market that gained more than 400%. https://t.co/yorh6ENKeo
Stay Calm: Regular Investing Beats Market Volatility
Been on bbcnews explaining why financial markets are going haywire due to a spike in energy prices. If you have a pension or other investments don’t panic, keep calm and carry on as bouts of market volatility are usual for...
23 Years of Dividend Growth Amid Volatile Uptrend
Couple of impressive aspects to #CKN - 23 years of Dividend growth and ShareScope showing the Share Price Chart in an Uptrend for 23 years (coincidence?). Quite wide swings in the Uptrend Channel though. I don't hold.
Use Market Drop as Long-Term Investment Opportunity
Blood is on the streets. Sadly, even literally. Portfolios will bleed too, and this time it's a man made disaster. We've seen these before, and we've emerged eventually out of them better, but man made disasters tend to take a little...
True Compounders Reinvest Cash at Returns Above Cost
"A true compounder reinvests cash flows at rates above its cost of capital." Most investors chase growth. The best investors chase compounding. A true compounder does one thing exceptionally well: it reinvests cash flows at returns higher than its cost of capital.
Tax Wrappers Are Cheat Codes, Not Indexing Tools
Tax wrappers (IRAs, HSAs, etc.) are cheat codes for arbs & special situations. Active investors using them as indexing & long-term only vehicles are sabotaging their risk adjusted after tax returns. https://t.co/HDlplC0mGI
Fortunes Grow in the Quiet Gap Before Validation
Most investors won't like your investment idea until after it doubles, which means validation comes long after you've purchased and borne the burden of being alone in your conviction. The gap between purchase and recognition is where fortunes are built...
Japanese Portfolio Managers Barred From Software Investments
“An interesting thing I heard is that some Japanese Portfolio Managers are being actively told company-wide not to touch anything software or IT related in the broad sense, at all” - @InvestInJapan
U.S. Debt Outpaces Growth, Threatening Investor Portfolios
Jerome Powell warns the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path, with national debt growing faster than the economy. Investors, learn how this affects the stock market, portfolio risk, and long-term wealth building. Smart value investing can protect your financial...
Goldman Holds 7600 SPX Target, Cuts Loom
Goldman sticking with a 7600 YE SPX target... I give it 4 weeks before we start seeing estimate cuts across the street https://t.co/DsTzT8zbEO
Small‑cap Slump Signals Delayed Bull Market Confirmation
Russell 2000 down 2.3%. Small caps are the canary. They need cheap credit, domestic demand, and labor stability. They have none of those right now. If you're waiting for small cap leadership to confirm a bull market, you'll be waiting a while. https://t.co/mDOKLhcosE
Market Tricks Beginners: Luck Isn't Skill, Double‑Down Costs
The greatest trick the market plays on beginners is making you think luck is skill. It waits for you to double or triple down on your next bet and then it teaches you your first lesson.