Insider Purchases $11M MESO Shares, Signals Strong Confidence
Insider buy I keep watching - $MESO A director just bought 7.9M shares between April 4 and 10. Open market. Across multiple related accounts Average price - around $1.45 a share Total clip somewhere near $11M for that one filing alone This isn't a 10b5-1 plan. This isn't a token board grant. This is someone with the most information about the company writing checks at this price
Fermi 10‑K Clues Reveal Why Neugebauer Left
Here’s another close look at Fermi, including excerpts from its 10-K that may explain Neugebauer’s departure, an odd statement from Neugebauer, a Fermi timeline, and my thoughts on what will happen next. Link is below. https://t.co/HCwbhXRlNn
S&P
From its inception in 1957 through today, the S&P 500 has hit 1,313 all-time highs, hitting a new high once every 19 days on average. https://t.co/jjlXwK9mzq
CVD Equipment Nears Liquidation, Cash Hits 80% Market Cap
Not officially a liquidation, but getting close (I think). CVD Equipment $CVV agreed to sell its Stainless Design Concepts division for $16.9m, o/w $15m after taxes and fees. This will bring total net cash on the b/s at ~80% of...
Bull Markets Surviving Three Years Usually Persist for Years
The current bull market is 3.5 years old and up 99.2%. As we've noted many times, once bull markets get past their third birthday they rarely end anytime soon. Over the past past 50 years, 5 made it past their 3rd birthday...
Japanese Mortgage Guarantor Faces Yield Impact, Low ROE Concerns
Japanese dominant independent mortgage guarantor with extremely high profit margins How they are hurt/helped by rising yields is very interesting to me Write-up from shareholder saying their ROE is too low (& they hold too much capital) https://t.co/BVNg6v8bps
Usage‑Based SaaS Overtakes Seat Model in Valuation
SaaS market has re-rated pricing models. From 2019–2021, seat-based companies earned a valuation premium for predictability. By 2026, that premium has flipped as investors increasingly prefer subscription models tied to usage, output, and AI-driven value creation. Seat-based SaaS traded above other subscription...
Russell 2000 EPS Growth Outpaces S&P 500
18% S&P 500 EPS growth seen this year... just 11% for the S&P 500 EW. But 44% for the Russell 2000. GS https://t.co/ZYTwDJ60Km
Avoiding Recession Leads to Double‑Digit Stock Gains
We never expected a recession this year (including four weeks ago) and history shows that years that are able to avoid a recession see stocks up double digits nearly 7 out of 10 years. https://t.co/k2LDYKyttL
Early Bull Run: Only 30% of Market Upswing Completed
From 1989 through 2000, the market (ie $SPY) made 327 new highs. From 2013 through 2022, the market (ie $SPY) made 347 new highs. From 2024 through 2026, the market (ie $SPY) has made 103 new highs. Its possible we're only 30% of...
Top 10 US Firms Hit Record Earnings Share
The 10 largest US companies haven't contributed this much to total earnings in the modern era GS https://t.co/KBJshEbLTw
Intel's Valuation over Doubles Dot‑com Peak
"Intel... now trades for more than 130 times its projected earnings for this year, far above the peak multiple of 60 times that the stock briefly touched during the dot-com bubble." https://t.co/yO388d0820 https://t.co/2HjelEQb7W
Insiders Bet on Ag Growth at 6x EV/EBITDA
Lots happening at Ag Growth $AFN The shares dropped quite a bit on poor results and the dividend cut. The CFO recently resigned. Shreholder Plantro is publicly pushing the company to launch a full sale process, arguing the company’s latest earnings...
VSNT Eyeing STRZ Despite Divergent Growth Forecasts
$STRZ Stock ripping lately... CEO incentive comp is old news (Nov 2025) Hmm... VSNT likely acquirer here... they want non-linear revenue streams and STRZ gets 70% of revenue from digital sell-side penciling ~3% EBITDA growth '26-28 for STRZ vs. 12% decline at VSNT https://t.co/kOTAwW2Pc3
AI Boosts Cloud Demand; Overweight Hyperscalers Recommended
AI expands software TAM; IaaS/PaaS and GPU/CPU demand will drive cloud growth. Risks: niche disruption, legacy churn. Trade: overweight hyperscalers & cloud infra. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Five Funds Rarely Provide True Diversification
5 funds. That's what most clients are told is a diversified portfolio. 5 funds is almost never diversification. Open them up and you usually find the same 30 stocks repeated five ways.
Buy Stocks Like Groceries, Not Perfume, for Wealth
Most investors shop for stocks like perfume, chasing the scent of what's hot. Benjamin Graham shopped for stocks like groceries. One method makes you feel sophisticated. The other makes you wealthy.
TravelSky: China’s 95% Air Travel Transaction Monopoly
What's the ideal asset to own? How about an air travel monopoly that takes a cut out of almost every transaction in China? That's exactly what TravelSky (696 HK) is, with a 95% domestic market share. https://t.co/iSe3O4t9V1
Invest $5k in AI’s Core Infrastructure Bottlenecks
Thoughts? I break down how I'd invest $5,000 in the critical bottlenecks powering AI: water and cooling infrastructure ($1,000 in VRT and PHO), energy solutions ($3,000 in nuclear via Oklo and CCJ), and compute ($1,000 in IonQ and Nvidia). These...
Learn From Mistakes, Seize Dips for Future Gains
I can’t throw rocks at @CathieDWood for making a stupid investment move. I sold my Apple in 2003 when I took a job at Microsoft. I doubled my money, thought I was brilliant. It was the equivalent of something like $.25....
Industrials Now Outpace S&P 500 with 4.6‑point Premium
Industrials now trade at a 4.6-point premium to the S&P 500. Historically, they've traded in line or below the broader market. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/hOtouHjlPA
Invest when Stock Earnings Yield Exceeds Risk‑free Rate
Buffett doesn't check the ticker every morning. He checks whether earnings yield still beats the risk-free rate. When stocks yield more than bonds, you're being paid to be patient. When they don't, patience has a price. Do the math. Then do it again.
QuidelOrtho Mispriced: 2026 Cash Flow Bet Could Double Shares
QuidelOrtho stock is down ~70%, but a new analysis says it's mispriced. The bet? If management's 2026 free cash flow turnaround works, shares could double. High-risk, high-reward play. investing
Companies Overpay Now, Ignoring Munger’s Cheap‑Buy Warning
Munger didn't sugarcoat it: companies bought almost nothing when stocks were cheap. Now they're buying hand over fist at the top. Capital allocation is where management tells you the truth about their judgment. Most are failing the test.
S&P 2002 Bottom Yields 1156% Gain, Gold Lags
Since the bottom in the S&P 500 in 3q 2002: SPX Total Return (blue): Up 1,156% SPX Total Return priced in gold (red): Down 17.5% https://t.co/Ar8IPnAqOe
Intel's Packaging Wins Set Stage for Wafer Deals
Intel has made great strides. I was one of the only analysts that gave them a shot when the company had been written off for dead by most. They’re definitively getting advanced packaging from big XPU players. I called this...
SPX Beats 2025 High, Yet Valuation Is Cheap
SPX has soared above its October 2025 price peak, but its P/E ratio is way lower now.
Price Drives Narrative, Not Just Reflects Reality
I wrote something internally awhile back about reflexivity, given what's taking place in software. Everyone knows the idea, price doesn't just reflect perception, it can shape it. When a stock is working, the questions / work is much more optimistic....
Latin America Leads Rebound, Outperforming US Stocks
One of the more important developments over the past few weeks has been the resilience of LatAm’s outperformance relative to US equities. These markets didn’t just hold up well during the selloff — they remained remarkably firm. And in the rebound, they’ve...
Radcom's Strong Fundamentals Tested by Activist Push
Feels we might be in for some interesting times at Radcom $RDCM. Activists popping up left and right. Lynrock Lake is at ~20% and has been pushing for a strategic review (clearly a sale). Value Base (5.4%) looking to clean...
Emotional Stability Beats IQ in Investing Success
“If you’ve got a 150 IQ and you’re in my business, go sell 20 or 30 points to somebody else because you really don’t need it. You need emotional stability. You need to be able to detach yourself from fear...
Current Dip Still Shy of Historic Median Drawdown
The median midterm year drawdown is 15.6% .. S&P 500 1950-2022 Well, we got to -9.1% on the daily chart https://t.co/3tQDvp8ipA
2026 EPS Forecasts Break From Consensus Revision Trend
GS: 2026 EPS estimates have diverged from the typical path of consensus estimate revisions https://t.co/4CP8mSU3mS
Bad Data, Past Bias, and Complexity Betray Models
Three reasons your perfect model is lying to you: 1️⃣ Garbage in, garbage out. Precise math on bad assumptions is just fast wrongness. 2️⃣ Models optimize for the past. Markets punish you in the future. 3️⃣ Complexity is confidence cosplay. Simple + honest...
Seeking Hidden Gems: Misunderstood, High Upside, Low Ownership
Hey @grok Which company today has the strongest combination of: misunderstood business model exponential upside low institutional ownership Name 3 candidates.
Buffett Follows Fundamentals, Not Market Hype
Warren Buffett was a trend follower, he just followed the fundamental trends of a company’s value.
Agents Will Turn AI Into Intuitive Investment Assistants
Someone used the metaphor to me this week that chatbot LLMs are like a calculator, good at generating answers to specific questions, but you have to remember to use them. The cognitive burden of pulling your prompt off the...
Western Alliance Bank Still Undervalued After Bounce‑Back
Western Alliance Bank stock has already bounced back from the '23 crisis lows (the easy money's made). But new analysis says it's *still* undervalued. Strong deposits & earnings justify more upside. BankStocks
Buffett Indicator >200% Predicts Decade-Long Winning Trade
The Buffett Indicator just hit 223% highest ever & every time this indicator topped 200% the same trade worked for a decade 🚨 Here's what happened the last two times it went above 200% 👇
Trader Overloads Portfolio with Excessive Position Weighting
My Trader when I tell him to keep adding to a position that’s already a 15% position portfolio weighting. https://t.co/PA3yZsoPvz
Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Gains Outshine Short-Term Market Moves
Some of our strategies have been sitting in cash this month as a defensive mechanism. I'm also seeing a few comments about the strength of the market this month and how such a defensive mechanism we use is ineffective. Well, that's...
AI‑Driven Water Crisis Sparks Billionaire Investment Surge
Thoughts? We discuss the critical water shortage crisis called Day Zero and how AI and data centers are accelerating water consumption. We explore five investment opportunities in the water sector, including water ETFs, utilities, infrastructure, and water tech companies, explaining...
Invest Now: Capture Compute, Data, Energy Bottlenecks with DCA
Thoughts? I break down why now is the time to start investing and what most people are missing. We discuss how liquidity shifts, potential Fed rate changes, and trillions of dollars moving into the system could impact your portfolio. I...
Graham Prioritized Tangible Book Value Over Accounting Goodwill
Most investors think a high book value means a cheap stock. Graham didn't. He wanted tangible book value, assets you can actually touch, sell, or liquidate. Goodwill-heavy book value is an accountant's opinion. Tangible equity is a margin of safety.
April S&P New Highs Historically Signal Strong Year
3 new highs in April for the S&P 500. Interesting as strong as this month is, it doesn't see a ton of new ATHs. But the 19 other years it hit a new ATH in April saw the full year higher...
Industrials Forward P/E Near Record Highs vs Market
The forward P/E of the industrials sector relative to that of the broader market remains near record highs. ty @augurinfinity https://t.co/XZoDHelWSz https://t.co/doqKhFeI1Y
North Asia EPS Upgrade Raises MSCI EM Forecast
GS: Upgrades to North Asia EPS growth push our 2026/27 MSCI EM EPS growth forecast to 34%/14% from 23%/13% https://t.co/jK4UGxp0LY
Track Normalized FCF/Share via Long‑Term Cycle Analytics
This is a great question One of the most important output metrics in any model, in my opinion, is normalized FCF/share. There are many assumptions that lead to your FCF/share metric, including revenue & normalized margin assumptions. But quarter to quarter and year...
AI Could Transform SNDK Into High‑Growth Memory Leader
Is $SNDK a cyclical memory stock, or will AI make memory a stable grower? $SNDK +2,838% 1Y 🚀 +234% YTD 🟢 - Weak Margins - Weak Growth since 2022 - INSANE Outlook from AI - 157% 2028 FCF CAGR - Reasonable Valuation - 1% Above Consensus Price...
Tesla, SpaceX Poised for 50/50 Merger of Equals
After further research and our discussions on the @cyberbulls with @TeslaLarry yesterday, I agree that this will very well be a Merger of Equals. BUT - in my opinion - it will not be at the then stock price, which is...