Robinhood at $72 Still Not a Buy
Deep Dive Full Thesis - Is HOOD a BUY now at $72? Robinhood Crashed 53% to $72 — Why I’m Still Rejecting It (and the Exact Price Where It Finally Becomes a Buy) Recent Institutional Rating Reiterated: - Barclays — Buy | $124 - J.P. Morgan — Hold | $113 - Morgan Stanley — Hold | $$147
Doximity Hits 52‑Week Low Amid Health‑Tech Rout
Macro: health-tech rout - Doximity 52-wk low $23.53 (-69%). Fundamentals: ~90% gross margin, net cash, AI progress. Risks: pharma budget cuts, weak sentiment. Trade: small, catalyst-led long. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Butler National Posts Explosive Earnings, Still Undervalued
Butler National $BUKS. What a stock... - Q3 revenues (Jan 31) +27% yoy, an acceleration even on tougher comps - operating income +139%, record margins - net income, well you can imagine 🔥 - insiders continue to add - still no coverage - still 7.7x ltm...
Shopify’s Moat Deepens as Valuation Hits Historic Low
5 quality stocks with durable moats and high upside 👇 Some of the strongest platforms are now trading near historical valuation lows. $SHOP Shopify — 10.3x forward P/S Shopify powers $378B in GMV. Not just storefronts anymore. Payments, fulfillment, back-office tools all embedded...
Five Undervalued Moat Stocks to Watch
5 Quality Stocks with strong competitive advantages trading below median valuation 👇 $SOFI Full-stack bank + infrastructure. Galileo + Technisys cut costs, speed launches. Members expand across products, lowering CAC structurally. $ZETA 240M+ identity profiles power targeting. Athena automates campaigns across channels....
Every Double‑Digit S&P Drop Since 1928 Had a Cause
As we noted last year around this time, there is always a reason stocks lose double digits during a calendar year. Only 12 times since 1928 has the S&P 500 finished down double digits and each one had a reason. https://t.co/8bqfgijTgs
Passive Inflows Lock Markets as Ultra‑wealth Drives Equity Demand
WSJ: "There are about 430,000 U.S. households worth $30 million or more, according to an analysis of Federal Reserve data by Zidar. Within that, there are about 74,000 worth $100 million or more. Over the past few decades, the growth...
S&P Slingshot Years Predict Double‑Digit Gains Ahead
Small sample size, yes. Still, last year saw the S&P 500 down more than 15% YTD at some point and finished the year up more than double digits. We called this a slingshot year. The other three times that happened (1982, 2009,...
Robinhood Buyback: Dip Play Amid Crypto‑Driven Fragility
Robinhood Stock Rises After $1.5 Billion Buyback as Shares Stay Under Pressure Question: if stock tripled in 2025 then dropped 39% in 2026, is $1.5B buyback buying the dip or catching a falling knife? Robinhood's crypto reliance = structural vulnerability when...
Markets Now Drive Geopolitics, Keeping Stocks Resilient
Animal Spirits: The Best Stocks in History Markets rule geopolitics now Why would the Fed raise rates? Why aren't stocks down more this year? Why is gold down 20%? Why are new car payments so high? How to keep your customers happy & more https://t.co/7HhzBVbwb8 https://t.co/D1K44yFSeR
Pension Funds Snap Up $14B Equities, Top Percentile
GS on Flows via BBG: - Pension funds to buy $14 billion in equities for month/quarter-end rebalancing. - Ranks 75th percentile over the past three years in absolute dollar terms, and 97th percentile on a net basis. https://t.co/PkjmgbNxLG
Gold Crushes Stocks Over Every Decade Span
imagine being an investor that is so stubborn to be unwilling to invest in an asset (gold) that has outperformed stocks on a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10 and 20-year time frame... $PHYS $GLD $SPX $TSX not just outperformed... crushed......
Barclays Lifts 2026 S&P 500 Target to 7,650
Barclays raises 2026 year-end S&P 500 target to 7,650 despite Middle East, inflation risks https://t.co/UIix0xSpIM
Microcaps Double, Triple, Then Plunge—Sell Aggressively
Microcaps vs larger caps are two different animals. When a microcap goes up 2x and 3x in a 12-month period the median peak to trough drawdown is 58% and 68%. When an S&P 500 stock goes up 2x or 3x in a...
Big Tech Valuations Drop Below 20x Earnings
$MSFT now below 20x earnings... $AVGO 18x $NVDA 16x $META 17x out-year earnings estimates @finviz_com https://t.co/i1ijeByOv6
AI Accountability, Manager Incentives Undermine Traditional Style Indices
🔬 Research links: AI accountability, fund manager incentives, and the downside of traditional style indices. https://t.co/dbBOGPUYxJ image: https://t.co/bKyq3XAKIQ https://t.co/FNwileIXVO
Perplexity Computer Delivers Instant, Deep Guidance Credibility Analysis
I never found a way to adopt the old version of Perplexity in my investment process, but the things you can one-shot in Perplexity Computer are mind bogglingly good, and it has become a daily driver for me (for the...
Housing Likely to Underperform Private Equity in Five Years
Predicting forward returns is notoriously difficult but setting expectations can be helpful Which asset class will have worse returns over the next 5 years: Housing or private equity? https://t.co/AbfW2cXe9G https://t.co/ig9j4zorjK
Gold Shows Zero Stock Correlation; Bitcoin Slightly Linked
Wrote today about how investors just got a big-time reminder that gold has *zero* correlation to stocks, not inversely correlated. Big difference. Good diversifier but unreliable hedge. Bitcoin is similar but w more correlation (0.45) w stocks. Both unpredictable but...
Canal+ Appears Dramatically Undervalued with Strong Synergies
Help me out here. Doesn't Canal+ $CAN looks pretty mispriced right now. The market is basically valuing MultiChoice (plus all the expected synergies) at less than zero. MultiChoice is already profitable and Canal+ is targeting €400m in annual synergies over the...
Founder-Led Stocks with Durable Moats Are Undervalued
Undervalued founder-led stocks with strong moats 👇 $CRM — Deep enterprise integration + high switching costs $TEAM — Core dev + collaboration stack $MDB — Costly to migrate once built $ZETA — Data + marketing cloud lock-in $RBRK — Critical backup + security layer Which ones...
SPY May Fall 30%, Rebuild Below $475
$SPY Can't rule out a 30% drop but I think it could take a long time. Some supports along the way but if we go sub $475 then that's the ideal zone to build back long term exposure (not financial advice just...
Year Four Bull Markets Historically Deliver Strong Gains
This bull market is in year four, which historically is quite strong. Assuming the bull market doesn't end (by definition a 20% decline) you can see this year tends to be pretty strong. https://t.co/QQ3WWxzHfG
S&P-to-Gold Ratio 70% Lower Than 2000 Levels
The S&P 500 divided by the price of gold today is still 70% below where it was in 2000. @MorganStanley's Mike Wilson explains what this means for investors. https://t.co/V7xbgUdxvA https://t.co/sZD4Wb1rzF
Market Prices Over One Std Below Long‑Term Trend
"When we map recent developments onto our Valuation vs Profitability framework, we can see that the market is now trading more than one standard deviation below its long-term trend." -Duality Research
CSN’s Strong Results Boost Dividend Yield to 7.8%
#CSN results read well. I keep picking up on the first steps into more European countries bit; lot of opportunity to expand clearly. ShareScope showing fwd Dividend Yield 7.5% rising to 7.8%; no brainer for Income Portfolio.
ShareScope's FEVR P/E Drops, Dividend Climbs; US Growth Ahead
ShareScope has #FEVR on fwd p/e 32.1 falling to 27.3 and fwd Divvy 2.3% rising to 2.5%, BEFORE cash stripped out. US should start to pick up now Molson Coors deal is embedded and focus turns to growth.
EVPL Shares Tumble, yet Fundamentals Remain Solid
#EVPL whacked 13.7% but the Results are pretty good. Revenue down due to ceasing Astragon low-margin business. £51.9m cash (down due to acquisitions). Says expects to meet forecasts but with H2 weighting (maybe that spooked market but I suspect it's...
Brazilian Stocks Surge, Early Thesis Underestimated
While all eyes were on metals: Brazilian stocks had an outstanding move today. At times, Brazilian equities feel like a beach ball being held underwater — the pressure keeps building. We’re still in the very early stages of this thesis, in my view. What’s...
April Ranks Second-Best Month for S&P 500 Gains
Rubner Citadel: Since 1928, April has been the second-best month for S&P 500 returns, with an average gain of +1.3%. https://t.co/yFgPybpRBD
Earnings Still Drive Markets; Pullback Seen as Healthy Pause
"Periods like this are not uncommon and, in many ways, resemble prior resets within this cycle. Ultimately, earnings drive markets. Until we see a meaningful deterioration in the earnings backdrop, we remain constructive and view this pullback as a healthy...
Future Gains Matter More than Past Performance
"Incremental returns on capital matter more than historical returns." Stop obsessing over past returns—they don’t pay your future. Smart investors focus on what a business can earn from here, not what it did yesterday.
2026 May Bring Median Stock Multiple Expansion,
Earlier this year, @MorganStanley's Mike Wilson said, “The surprise for 2026 could be that we see multiple expansion for the median stock in addition to strong earnings.” He explains why that hasn't changed. https://t.co/V7xbgUdxvA https://t.co/F0rrEGQbzw
Deutsche Bank Sees Market Bottom in 3 Weeks
"The historical playbook is for a sharp selloff of about -6% to -8% but a bottom on average in 3 weeks, and a full recovery in another 3, usually long before the underlying escalation is resolved. The current selloff is...
Mag 7 Stocks Hit Multi‑year Lows, Earnings Still Rising
While the leveraged crowd was getting margin called, here's what they left behind. $MSFT at 20x forward. Below the S&P 500. $META at 21x. $GOOG at 23x. Cheapest Mag 7 valuations in years. Earnings still growing 12.5%. The stocks got cheaper. The businesses didn't.
Build an All‑Weather Portfolio for Today’s Uncertain Markets
I am at a stage in life where my main objective is to pass along to others the principles I have learned over the last 60 years that have helped me and that I think can help others. I believe...
ABT Stock Slides, Yet 54-Year Dividend Streak Persists
If you're looking for a bargain, shares of ABT have been drifting downward. ABT has raised its dividend every year for the last 54 years in a row.
Discipline Beats IQ in Value Investing
Warren Buffett’s approach is simple: stay rational when others aren’t. Value investing is less about IQ and more about temperament, patience, and consistency in the stock market. Most investors lose money not because they lack intelligence, but because they lack discipline.
Undervalued Gems:
Tim Travis @TimTravisValue on: * Blue Owl $OWL and $OBDC: Hidden Value in Private Credit Stocks? $MSDL * Why Asset Managers Like Blackstone, $KKR, and Blue Owl Are So Cheap * Energy Stocks Rally: $DVN, $OXY, and $EPD Breakdown * Assured Guaranty $AGO:...
Oracle’s $153 Price Offers 35% Safety Margin
Full Deep Dive Thesis: Is ORCL a BUY at $153? Oracle at $153: Why Wall Street’s $50B CapEx & Debt Panic Just Created a Rare 35% Margin of Safety on a $553 Billion Contracted AI Backlog Recent Institutional Rating Upgrades: • JP Morgan...
Open Text Stock Uncertain Amid AI Integration Hurdles
Open Text stock faces uncertainty amid #AI integration challenges and enterprise software slowdown. (Ad Hoc News) #Technology #Stocks #Valuations #JVGpost https://t.co/XC8bWoPbBr https://t.co/qLf54XTRUB
CAPE Still Predicts Long‑Term Returns, New Study Shows
CAPE has long been a cornerstone of long-horizon return forecasting. High valuations imply lower future returns. Low valuations imply higher future returns. Critics argue that its predictive power has faded. This paper pushes back. by @ebasilico https://t.co/GagZA56sWf https://t.co/3Zd7kxgT9K
Steepening 10‑3 Curve Signals Shift to Cyclical Value Rally
The 10-3 Treasury Yield Curve is as steep as it has been since July 2022 after the 10-year spiked over the weekend. Historical playbook Every cycle: * Curve inverts → tightening / late cycle * Growth slows / recession risk builds * Fed pivots →...
Market Corrections Trigger Upcoming Metal Stock Mania
Fact: Major Market Corrections precede Metal and Resource stock manias - there are many examples in history including: 2009, 2015, 2020, 2025! And today. Gold now well off its lows ... https://t.co/mlzues0wR7
Mild Pullbacks Are Normal; Markets Usually Recover
Yes, this recent bout of volatility hasn't been fun for investors, but remember, volatility is the toll we pay to invest. These three charts are timeless and always come in handy in times like this. Chart 1 - The average years sees...
Midterm Dips Trigger ~32% Rebound Within a Year
Midterm years tend to see the largest peak-to-trough pullbacks. That's the bad news. The good news? Off the mid-term year low, stocks have never been lower a year later and up nearly 32% on average. https://t.co/yfCeUhC21k
Success Depends on Entry Price, Not Just Quality
Howard Marks: “Investment success doesn’t come from ‘buying good things,’ but rather from ‘buying things well.’” Takeaway: Entry price drives outcome.
MercadoLibre’s Ecosystem Creates Undervalued Founder‑led Moat
6 undervalued founder-led companies with real moats 👇 $MELI — MercadoLibre (31.07 Forward PE) MercadoLibre operates a closed-loop ecosystem: commerce → payments → credit → logistics. Over 60M fintech MAUs interact across multiple layers of the platform. Mercado Envíos delivers a majority of orders...
Grantham Warns Against AI Hype, Emphasizes Value Investing
Few investors have seen more cycles than Jeremy Grantham. A conversation with the GMO Co-Founder on bubbles, value investing, AI exuberance, and environmental philanthropy. https://t.co/C8lWkLZ3g4 With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @MorningstarInc, and Ridgeline.
Gold Bull Market Doesn't Boost Chinese Jewelry Retailer
You would’ve thought that a Chinese retailer of gold jewelry should do well in a gold bull market. But no. https://t.co/I5hGQN1jn2