Liquidity and Solvency Ratios: Core Valuation Metrics
"Liquidity and solvency ratios are valuation inputs, not accounting trivia." Liquidity and solvency ratios aren’t just numbers, they show the real health of a company.
Profitable, Non‑diluting Growth Beats Early Hype
Don’t worry if no one likes your investment idea. If the company is profitable and growing and not diluting the crowd will eventually come back to it.
Strong SaaS Growth Offsets Multiple Contraction
While SaaS multiples have contracted meaningfully, 20-30% revenue CAGR since 2021 means that revenue has increased 150-250%, counteracting much of the multiple contraction from an LTV perspective (assuming no dividend recaps). Growth solves a lot of problems over time.
Nvidia Hits S&P 500 Forward P/E Parity After Decade
GOLDMAN DESK: “.. Nvidia now trades at par / slight discount to the S&P500 on fwd P/E for the first time in 10+ years. “.. yes, Nvidia is now trading at par with the S&P500 on fwd P/E despite, Nvidia...
Rising 5% Breakeven Inflation Threatens S&P Valuations
Bond markets have rapidly repriced near-term expectations for U.S. inflation in response to surging commodity prices. The implied 1-year breakeven inflation rate is now above 5% for the first time since 2022. Elevated bond market-implied inflation expectations may present a problem...
MELI's Profitability Varies Widely Across Countries
Great point re: $MELI country level profitability differences Been going through @DrewCohenMoney's free analysis on the company in preparation for my own report. Good stuff all around in the comments
Patience Over Action: Buffett’s Key to Long-Term Wealth
Patience beats action in the stock market. Inspired by Warren Buffett, this investing mindset shows why waiting for the right opportunity is key to long-term wealth building. Stop chasing every trade, focus on value investing, smart decisions, and strong portfolio...
Understanding 100‑Baggers: Beyond Traits and Survivorship Bias
This was great from Chris Mayer. You tend to see two reactions to studies like the 100 bagger research: 1. “I’ll just copy the exact traits and find winners.” 2. “It’s all survivorship bias” Chris explains why both miss the point. https://t.co/iYW8itthV3
SaaS Multiples Dip as Growth Steadies at 14%
SaaS valuations just hit multi-year lows — while growth is stabilizing. Over the past 12 months, the setup has quietly flipped 👇 • Median EV/Sales fell to 3.44x (at ATL) • NTM revenue growth rebounded to +14% YoY Valuations compressed. Growth held. Growth expectations stopped...
VNINDEX Rally Driven Mainly by Thinly Traded Vingroup
Yeah no, valuation multiples seem reasonable especially given this backdrop. The VNINDEX rally was partly due to the incredible performance of thinly traded Vingroup. The rest has not rallied as much.
Weekly 20‑Minute Podcast Simplifies Portfolio Risk Insight
The whole point of 2Graybeards is to provide a credible once a week check in for busy people who need a 20 minute credible synthesis each week. If that's you and your trawling twitter or cnbc or mainstream media...
Decade of Gains: Taxpayer-Funded Buybacks Enrich 1%
With the Mag 7 rolling over, is there a good case to be make that the last 10 years of outperformance was just a giant Debt-for-Equity swap from taxpayers (more tax dollars allocated to unfunded pensions) to the top 1%...
Stay Disciplined: Deploy Capital, Not Panic, Amid Volatility
I get it - volatility makes people nervous. But my job isn’t to panic. My job is to deploy capital. Whether the market is up 700 points or down 700 points, I ask one question: What has actually changed? Most people react emotionally....
Market Drops Are Frequent; Long‑term Investors Still Profit
How Often the Stock Market Falls (1928–2021): • 5%+ decline: 95% of years • 10%+ decline: 63% of years • 20%+ decline: 26% of years • 30%+ decline: 10% of years • 40%+ decline: 5% of years Market drops are common. Long-term investors still come out ahead.
Profit by Buying When Everyone Is Pessimistic
“Buy low. Of course, you say, that’s obvious. Well, it may be, but that isn’t the way the market works. Buy when most people, including experts, are pessimistic. So simple in concept. So difficult in execution.” — Sir John Templeton...
AI Giants’ $11.2T Valuation Overshadows South Sea Bubble
The Top 5 AI hyperscalers now carry an $11.2 trillion market cap. Adjusted for inflation, this dwarfs the South Sea Bubble. I’ve broken down the full Fundsmith 2026 AGM and why Terry Smith is staying the course. Read the full FREE deep...
US‑Israeli War Sends 60‑40 Portfolio to Worst Month Since 2022
As a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the traditional '60-40' portfolio of equities and bonds is on track for the worst month since September 2022. US-ISRAELI WAR = NOT WALL STREET'S FRIEND. https://t.co/kWe8ucZedL
True Value Requires Assets or Earnings, Not Low Price
"A stock is not undervalued unless intrinsic value is supported by hard assets or earning power." Most “cheap” stocks aren’t actually cheap.
ROIC Sources Dictate: Differentiate or Lead Costs
Michael Mauboussin on ROIC and Competitive Advantage If a business has a high ROIC from a high NOPAT margin, focus on differentiation If a business has a high ROIC from a high invested capital turnover, focus on cost leadership Very few businesses...
U.S. Stocks Always Rebound to All‑Time Highs
You can simplify it even further: The U.S. stock market has a 100% perfect record of coming back from downturns to hit ATHs. This indisputable truth is the ultimate anxiety killer. Better than Xanax. Instantly renders all doomer columnists and...
WING Crashes 55% as Valuations Prove Misleading
2 years later, $WING down 55%, multiple down 75%, below covid levels. Not only does valuation obv matter, but if you want to better understand financial media and so on read the bull articles from back then. https://t.co/RpeTSVRgG2
Buffett’s OXY Deal Delivers Dual‑Benefit Returns
Buffett’s Occidental ($OXY) deal is one of the cleanest examples of “have your cake and eat it too” investing. Let’s break down the real return Berkshire is getting 👇
Avoid Stocks with Confusing Accounting, Buffett Advises
Warren Buffett’s investing rule is simple: if the accounting is confusing, walk away. Smart investing starts with transparency. If you can’t understand the numbers, you shouldn’t own the stock.
Meta's Dip Offers 4:1 Risk‑reward Buying Chance
META REPORT CARD: THIS IS THE DIP YOU’VE BEEN PRAYING FOR Price now: $525.72 Fundamental Entry (30% MoS): ≤ $628 → WELL BELOW ✅ 38% MoS at $550 The market just panic-sold $119 BILLION off META’s market cap on March 26 over antitrust headlines. But...
Fundamentals Beat Luck: Prioritize Allocation, Horizon, Selection
Don't mistake a "lucky" market timing trade for a "good" investment strategy. True financial success is built on a boring foundation: ✅ Proper Asset Allocation ✅ A Long Investment Horizon ✅ Superior Stock Selection That doesn't mean that timing cannot add a few percentage points...
Tech Valuations Lag Growth, Set to Outperform Soon
The $NDX forward PE ratio has dropped to 21.09. In September 2022 it was at 18.96. The $SPX forward PE is at 20.53. We're approaching the point where tech will start outperforming again. It doesn't make sense for tech to...
Stay Calm During 50% Market Drops or Underperform
"If you're not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century, you're not fit to be a common shareholder - and you deserve the mediocre result you are going to...
AI‑driven SaaS Valuations: NET Overpriced, ZETA Underval
SaaS valuations based on the Forward EV/Sales multiple relative to their projected NTM revenue growth. • $NET sits far above the curve — 29% growth but trading at 26x Forward EV/Sales. Market pricing in AI + platform dominance. • $APP combines high...
Stay Near Target Risk, Always Own Market Beta
If you are persistently leveraged long assets above your risk target you are doing it wrong and this month is a lesson. Consider moving to your risk target If you are perma bear and always underinvested and in...
Natural Gas Soars While Tech and Mag7 Falter
Ideas for that are Working 2026 FCG Natural Gas Equities: +40% Big Tech QQQ: -9% Mag7 MAGS: -16% Bloomberg https://t.co/Ojdx0GXDHM
Analysts Value Netflix so Highly It’d Trade at 14x P/E
Love the anecdote about Nygren’s analyst pitching Netflix: - Anecdotal survey showed his colleagues valued Netflix higher than any other subscription - If Netflix raised its price to their level, it would have traded at 14x P/E https://t.co/SlDjNAkwbF https://t.co/cVAQ97b2Pr
Even with Explosive Growth, I Hard‑reject ONDS at $9.11
Deep Dive Full Thesis - Is ONDS a BUY now at $9.11? $7M Revenue to $3.86B Market Cap in 15 Months — 10 Acquisitions, $1.8B Raised, 217% Dilution… Why I Still Say Hard Reject at $9.11 Recent Institutional Rating: - Northland Capital Markets...
Ackman Buys Meta at 15% Discount, P/E Below 20‑Year Average
Bill Ackman added $META at $625 you can buy here for 15% off at a P/E of 22 below its 20 year avg of 27!
Earnings Outlook Determines Whether Stocks or Bonds Look Cheap
If forward earnings estimates materialize, a lot of stocks seem pretty cheap. If earnings estimates don’t materialize, bonds seem cheap.
Monthly $300 S&P 500:
Invest $300/month into the S&P 500 and let time do the work: Year 5: $23,290 Year 10: $61,804 Year 15: $130,016 Year 20: $229,302 Year 25: $402,878 Year 30: $683,657 Consistency > timing. Start early. Stay consistent.
Buying Deep Into Undervalued Cash‑Rich Marketplace
Bought a lot today. And all week. A marketplace trading below 1x trailing EV/aEBITDA with nearly two-thirds of its market cap in net cash. The lower it goes, the more I buy.
Pros Evaluate Whole Portfolio; Amateurs Focus on Single Trades
CNBC-type amateurs grade the process one position at a time. Pros grade the portfolio over a Full Investing Cycle. That's not a philosophy difference. That's the whole ballgame https://t.co/oOOFG3WLfk
Earnings Drive AI Stock Gains, but Accounting Tricks Matter
Earnings growth supports stock price growth in the AI era. But do factors like extending the useful lives of tangible assets, aggressively capitalising costs rather than expensing them, and share buybacks also play a role?
Rising Inflation Threatens Balanced Portfolios Like 2022
Fears of re-accelerating inflation obliterating balanced portfolios, just like they did in 2022. https://t.co/S7laKGwQLC https://t.co/oLsV6wsuXf
Western Union Poised to Profit From Stablecoins
I started looking at Western Union because I thought stablecoins would kill it. Then I realized WU is better positioned than almost anyone to leverage them. Brand, distribution, 200+ countries, $923M in EBITDA. The key risk was management. They had...
Ondas' Strong Balance Sheet Fuels Revenue, Buy on Pullback
Macro: Ondas' stronger balance sheet reduces dilution risk; revenue accelerates. Key: $1.5B cash, backlog +240%, FY26 guide $375M. Risks: 35% short interest, elevated OPEX. Trade: buy on pullback; target $23. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Even Top‑rated Stocks Often Lag the Market over Five Years
The chart below should teach you something. I curated a list of above-average companies, many of which are considered "investor darlings," yet the majority of them underperformed the index over FIVE (!) years. $FICO $V $MA $SPGI $AMZN $MELI $RACE
Apple’s AI Router Turns Siri Into Revenue Engine
$AAPL just turned Siri into an AI router. That’s the endgame: Apple owns the interface, everyone else pays the toll. iOS 27 = services margin expansion 🚀 This is the bull case for Apple.
Long‑duration Treasuries Matching S&P Returns Signals Cycle Shift
Long duration Treasuries performance now roughly matches the performance of the S&P 500 from July of last year. Think about that - duration is performing like stocks. That's a cycle shift starting.
Analysts Forecast 29% S&P 500 Rise in Year
Industry Analysts Project 29% Increase in S&P 500 Price Over the Next 12 Months @factset https://t.co/7KtJzSkyej
S&P 500 Earnings Set for Sixth Double‑digit Quarter
Q1 2026 S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow 13.0% YoY, marking a sixth straight quarter of double-digit gains. @factset https://t.co/9e3Ce7uvHP
Market Valuations Shifting: Nvidia and Big‑tech Multiples Puzzling
The re-rating of Nvidia makes no sense quite honestly. Separately, moving the FCF multiple of Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet also doesn't make sense to me. That said, the pricing model for public markets are changing rapidly... https://t.co/bOnVWE3STO
Valuations Drop 12% Even as EPS Expectations Rise
📊 Valuations are down 12% while EPS expectations are up @DanGreenhaus breaks down the market math nobody is talking about 🎙️ https://t.co/T03CfonYMo
Wealth Grows Through Daily, Long‑Term Rational Investing
Building wealth isn’t about getting rich overnight, it’s about staying in the game. Charlie Munger’s mindset: show up daily, think long-term, and make rational moves in the stock market. That’s how portfolios grow.
High Inflation Dem
If CPI were to trend up to 5% over the next year in the unlikely event that rbob futures kept rolling up to the current spot price...what is the 10 year yield and what has to happen to SPX earnings...