Hedgeye Signals Align with Sam’s Long‑Term Fundamentals
As good a fundamental recap as there is. All @Hedgeye Signals agree with Sam's @SamofAmerica longer fundamental views
Assessing Semiconductor Bubble Risk and Top Confirmation Signals
Hey @grok What’s the probability that Semiconductor stocks are in a bubble right now—and what specific indicators would confirm the top is in?
Endure the Silence, Reap Decades of 20% Returns
The hardest part of value investing isn't the math. It's the silence. Silence when your portfolio lags the index for 18 months. Silence when your group says you're wrong. Munger tolerated that silence. That's why he compounded at 20%+ for decades.
Shriram Finance Q4 Profit Surges 41% Amid Steady AUM Growth
Shriram Finance reported strong Q4 FY26 results 💰 Profitability Net Profit: ₹3,013.57 Cr (+40.86% YoY) 👉 Strong earnings growth 📈 Growth AUM: ₹3,02,273.75 Cr (+14.85% YoY) 👉 Healthy but not hyper growth 🏦 Income Net Interest Income (NII): ₹6,994.08 Cr (+15.58% YoY) Net Interest Margin (NIM): 8.61% Growth Guidance...
Early-Cycle Sugar Stocks: Value Wave Multi‑Bagger Picks
Do you have a sweet tooth? Consider our top picks in sugar stocks under 'Value Wave Investments' - what is the value wave model? It is our way of finding stocks early on in the cycle so that we can...
Tech Hardware May Revert to Low‑margin Commodity Perception
5 years ago, investors considered tech hardware to be a commoditized, low-margin business. I think that market perception will eventually return.
Bull Markets Double in ~3.5 Years, Then Linger Another Three Years
It took 3.5 years for this bull market to double, a tad faster than normal. Did you know after previous bull markets doubled they had another three years on average left? https://t.co/0yTMAlZpem
Subscribe for Full Stock Thesis, Research, & Trades
Will be starting a substack , here I will post my full thesis on stocks, deep research , macro analysis , my buy & sells. So make sure you’re subscribed https://bdinvesting.substack.com
ETFs: Steady Long-Term Wealth Builders, Not Hot Picks
ETFs aren’t the next "hot stock" but they'll build wealth for you over the long term
Even at Market Highs, Long Opportunities Remain
Sentiment feels worse now that we're at all-time highs than it did in the lows of March. In this week's episode we discuss the concentrated leadership and why there's still so much opportunity on the long side. $SPY $QQQ $SMH $XLE...
Valuation: Pay for Proven Earnings, Not Future Guesswork
Most people think valuation means guessing the future. It doesn't. It means buying proven earning power cheap. Here's the difference: 1️⃣ Forecasting asks: what will this earn? 2️⃣ Valuation asks: what has this already earned, and what am I paying for it? 3️⃣ One is...
S&P 500 Forward P/E Tops 5‑Year and 10‑Year Averages
The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 20.9. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (19.9) and above the 10-year average (18.9). @factset https://t.co/spURH0fHEF
Most S&P 500 Firms Beat EPS and Revenue, Grow 15%
84% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise, and 81% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. @factset The blended (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 15.1% https://t.co/Nsrr48cr7k
Insiders Pile Into PTX Metals as Drills Turn
@inkresearch reports officers at @PTXMetals $PTX.V $PANXF have bought relentlessly since Jan 2024, adding over $870,000 worth of shares, including CEO @GregFerron who has bought over $230K worth of shares. Indeed, it often pays to follow the insiders- especially as...
Activist Push Targets Genco; Aim for $26
Macro: activist pressure on Genco; Key: Diana 14.8%, offer $23.50 vs $23.42, FV $26; Risks: poison pill, board resistance; Trade: long Genco toward $26. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Rethink 60/40: Adopt 60/20/20 with Uncorrelated Assets
With bonds and stocks once again positively correlated (per the chart below), the current/recent market episode served as another reminder to look beyond the 60/40 for that balance between returns and risk. Since 2022 I have been advocating for a 60/20/20...
Ultra‑rich Wealth Surge Fuels Market Resilience, Analysts Miss
WSJ: "There are about 430,000 U.S. households worth $30 million or more, according to an analysis of Federal Reserve data by Zidar. Within that, there are about 74,000 worth $100 million or more. Over the past few decades, the growth...
Charter CEO Eyes Cable Acquisitions as Shares Tumble
'We'd like to acquire more cable assets if can be done at an appropriate price [and] conditions,' said Charter CEO Chris Winfrey. Meanwhile, Charter shares are slumping amid disappointing Q1 results. @Light_Reading https://t.co/Yr519C4o2H
Sticking with Four Secular Growth Sectors for Long-Term Gains
In mid-March, I discussed the 4 secular growth sectors that I would focus on for the long-term: Aerospace and Defense, Semiconductors, Data Center related, and Biotech. They continue to be my area of focus from a growth perspective. Many stocks...
Client Exits Led to 24% Outperformance and 62% AUM Growth
last april, during the tariff tantrum, equity + trend fell -25% vs S&P 500's -16%. a client fully redeemed. to paraphrase, "I feel bad for you guys; you'll be out of business soon." since then, stocks + trend beat the S&P...
Business Models Flip: Old Advice Now Obsolete
The world is turning upside down. We have media companies being bought at crazy levels, which didn't used to happen. SaaS company margins and market caps are plummeting. Services businesses are getting 70% plus margins and are commanding premiums. Everything that...
Blackstone’s Deep Discount Offers Big Upside for Patient Investors
Blackstone is trading at a deep discount, but the fear might be overpriced. With $90B in liquidity and a $170B war chest, patient investors could win big. 📉➡️📈 Blackstone
Dividends Aren’t Passive: Investors Overpay for Illusion
My conversation with Samuel Hartzmark (@SamHartzmark), who may be the most knowledgeable person on irrational investor behavior related to dividends. We cover: • 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗙𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗰𝘆 - Dividends are 𝘯𝘰𝘵 passive income • 𝗝𝘂𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 - Mutual funds purchase stocks before dividend payments to...
Ovzon Posts Record EBITDA, Profit, Wins Dept of War
Fixed & mobile satcom provider @OvzonAB reports record EBITDA, swing to profit and return of @DeptofWar as customer. Compact T-8 on-the-move terminal to be released this year.https://t.co/KCEgWGNMlj https://t.co/y5pCk21go1
Morgan Stanley's Cynical Intel Call Misses Major Upside
MS is taking a L on their post-earnings note on Intel.. I get some of the risk reward debate, but cmon. "We have missed a large move here at EW, and we aren't trying to be stubborn - we just remain...
Beyond Growth: Prioritizing Moats and Quality in AI
I'm always baffled how most investors seem to obsess over top revenue growth numbers these days and seem to take that as a universal prediction of future success in AI. Maybe we're finally starting to get back to more sanity...
QCOM Poised for Lift with New DC CPU Launch
$QCOM should get a boost from launching a DC CPU. A much needed one. 💪🏻
Barrick 2026 Outlook: Slight Gold Dip, Stronger H
Barrick Mining $B. One of the world's largest gold mining companies with significant copper production. 2026 Guidance (from early 2026):Gold production: 2.90 – 3.25 Moz (slightly below 2025; H1 lighter, H2 stronger). Copper: 190–220kt. 1.9% dividend yield. https://t.co/17ZfOMzQfk
Hecla Mining Guides Lower 2026 Silver Output, Eyes 20 Moz Growth
Hecla Mining $HL. Operates key mines like Greens Creek (Alaska — one of the world's top silver mines), Lucky Friday (Idaho), and Keno Hill (Yukon). 2026 Guidance: Lower silver output (15.1–16.5 Moz) due to grade changes, but still...
Newmont Posts Record $3.1B Free Cash Flow, Beats Earnings
Newmont Corp $NEM. World's largest gold mining company by production. Record quarterly free cash flow: $3.1 billion. Strong production & earnings beat. Addtl $6 billion share repurchase authorization. Maintained full-year production guidance (~5.3M oz gold). https://t.co/udBcCySTek
Earnings Growth Offsets P/E Drops, Yields Positive Returns
The resilience and even acceleration in earnings has kept the recent decline to single digits instead of the nearly 20% drawdown in the forward P/E ratio. The earnings & valuation chart below shows the various noteworthy episodes when earnings are growing...
May Gains >5% Signal Strong Year-Long Returns
We shared this last year, but amazing how well it played out. Historically, no month sees better future returns when it is up >5% than May. Up 19.9% a year later and never lower. https://t.co/HxIeQFLYDa
Intel Sentiment Surges: More Buys, Higher 2026 Target
Wall Street Research on Intel $INTC 2026 Stock at $84 Buys: 17 Holds: 31 Sells: 4 2022 stock at $24 Buys: 11 Holds: 20 Sells: 12 *Bloomberg ANR data.
Most Bursa Malaysia Stocks Undervalued; Regulator's Fix Doubtful
Six in ten stocks on Bursa Malaysia trade below book value. Some are worth less than the CASH sitting on their balance sheets. The SC just released a master plan to fix this. It probably won’t.
High ROE Signals Quality, Not Just Profit
Buffett doesn't just look at how much a company earns. He looks at how much it earns on the equity it was given. Any business can grow by throwing cash at problems. A great business grows by not needing to. High ROE isn't a...
Balanced 25/25/25/25 Portfolio Yields 26% YTD
BofA Hartnett: “sleep like a baby” 25/25/25/25 stock/bonds/cash/commodity portfolio tracking 26% YTD, best year since ‘33 https://t.co/NCGhsf54CS
25% All‑
BofA on Asset Allocation: - The “sleep like a baby” portfolio (25% Stocks/Bonds/Commodities/Cash) is having the best year since *1933*. - Up 26% YTD, its third-best outperformance versus 60/40 (Stocks/Bonds) in a *century*. - Commodities have shined, despite remaining a significant underweight in...
Human Interaction Beats AI in Investment Edge
AI is great to supplement the investment process, but it's funny how the simple things are still incredibly useful. For example, listening live and/or participating live on earnings calls (versus reading the transcript later), talking to management 1x1, visiting management...
Seven Firms Dominate 30% of S&P 500 – Rethink Benchmark
"30% of the S&P 500 is made up by seven companies. The S&P 500 should not be the benchmark for your portfolio. If you do that, you are exposed only to US large cap companies." - Rodney Comegys (EP.498) With thanks to...
Nordic Market Overlooks KESKOB's Undervalued Growth Potential
Nordic market is sleeping on this one. - $KESKOB at 16x EPS on depressed earnings - Grocery cash machine (35% mkt share) funds the whole show - Building products at trough, recovery could 2x segment profits - Buying assets while peers retrench Pitch by @UpslopeCapital...
Balance Growth Stories with Survival Fundamentals Across Markets
In bull markets investors focus on the story and growth. In bear markets investors focus on the balance sheet and survival. The key is focusing on all these things.
Pool Industry Rebounds with 6% Q1 Growth
After a tough three years of post-pandemic normalization and negative growth, we see clear signs of $POOL returning to growth: - Q1 '26: Back to +6% growth. This is the first meaningful acceleration after nearly 12 quarters of declines or flatness. -...
PLS Beats IGO with Strong Margins Despite Sales Dip
$PLS results in contrast to IGO were strong with good recoveries and prodn although sales were down q/q, I assume on timing. FOB costs showed good progression although CFR costs were up, I assume on higher royalties related to price....
IGO Q1 Results Flat Despite Higher Lithium Prices
$IGO Mar qtr results unenthusing - stable Greenbushes prodn on maintenance, low recovery but this raised costs although ops benefited from higher lithium prices. Kwinana prodn and costs improved though not into profitable territory and it announced a major outage...
Xpeng's Bold Leap Into eVTOLs and Humanoid Robots
Macro: Xpeng moving into eVTOLs & humanoid robots. Key: 7k+ orders, late‑26/27 deliveries, robotaxi tests, global push. Risks: certification, execution, capex. Trade: buy on pullbacks. 🚀 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Intercom Leverages AI to Accelerate Revenue Growth
Love the example of help desk provider Intercom: supposed AI loser, but sits on the customer, uses AI to improve its service and ends up with a massive acceleration n revenue growth https://t.co/j78OunBFVj
Key Metrics to Evaluate AI Infrastructure Stocks
"How do I actually evaluate an AI infrastructure stock?" Saw this on Reddit again this week Here's the 4-thing framework I use: 1. Capex coverage - can they fund AI buildout with operating cash flow, or are they bleeding equity? (Microsoft yes, $IREN...
Sustained High ROIC Defies Mean Reversion, Needs Complex Valuation
Michael Mauboussin on fade rates "ROICs regress toward the mean as the result of competition, changing market conditions, and luck. But there is a substantial body of research that shows some companies produce high ROICs for sustained periods, often measured in decades. This...
Intel's Turnaround Has Just Begun
$INTC is one of the great turnaround stories of our time. And it’s still VERY EARLY.
Comcast's “Legendary” February Fell Short Profitably
Good analysis by @Drewbydoobydoo on how legendary February was not so legendary from the profit standpoint for Comcast.