RPI Beats EBITDA Forecast, Sustains Momentum Into FY2026
#RPI "EBITDA growth ahead of expectations". "Strong momentum carried into FY 2026". Successfully navigated rising DRAM costs (this was a big worry at last update).
Don’t Miss AI’s Long‑Term Growth Amid Market Pullback
Some investors are pulling back from AI stocks. After a strong run, concerns around valuations and heavy spending are driving rotation into other sectors. But stepping away too early could mean missing the next phase of growth. AI is not a short-term...
Why the Market Still Isn’t Bottoming Despite Covid Discount
We are sending a very long ‘Kya Lagta Hai’ newsletter to our smallcase and PMS subscribers today. We discuss just one aspect today & that is: ‘Why is our market not bottoming out?’ If we could discount Covid in weeks, why is...
Record-Low Insider Selling Signals Buying Opportunity
- CNN Greed & Fear ratio 9/100 - Asia insider selling/buying ratio has reached a record low of 0.16 (!) according to Smart Insider - Trump is declaring that he wants to end the war - Bill Ackman (whose track record on market...
Japanese Cross‑shareholdings Shield Incumbents, Hurt Shareholders
Shareholders are supreme under Japanese corporate law, but shareholders' economic interests are not. What is the distinction? Japan is (in)famous for its webs of cross-shareholdings. Suppliers, customers, financial institutions own shares in each other, and always support incumbent management with their...
Approaching Market Capitulation; Relief Rally Likely Soon
Stock prices are thrashing around from one headline to another but we are getting very close to capitulation. Support just few % points below current level, we should at least get a relief rally from there. Growth stocks are washed...
Munger Says Own Apple Among Elite 12 Stocks
Charlie Munger on Berkshire's Apple investment: "What everybody learned is everybody needs some significant participation in the 12 companies that do better than everybody else. If you have that mindset, Apple was a logical candidate to be on the list..." https://t.co/dM8OcYvjJv
Organigram's Sanity Deal Boosts EU Reach, Buy Pullback
Macro: Organigram acquires Sanity, expands into EU; Key: 93% vote, BAT financing, 68.6% LTM rev, positive EBITDA; Risks: closing risks, earnout; Trade: buy on pullback — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Most Stocks Slump, SPY Barely Down—Favor Index Investing
Lot of people are are down 30-40-50%. But $SPY is still below 10%, hence majority of your investment should be in index.
Down $142K, Still Buying and Holding Long-Term
We are down $142K in our investment portfolio since the beginning of 2026. What are we doing about it?? Continuing to buy more and stay invested for the long term.
AmEx Secures NFL Deal, Boosting Revenue Outlook
Macro: AmEx wins NFL payments deal replacing Visa; Key: exclusive card perks, new co‑branded card & international reach; Risk: marketing ROI/FX; Trade: buy AXP on expected revenue lift. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Trust Your Research, Not Borrowed Judgement
Don’t borrow judgement. The reason why we spend hundreds of hours analyzing a business is to thoroughly understand it. The purpose of the research is to build confidence in our assumptions. The valuation then dictates what the return those assumptions will...
Patience Pays: Years of Average Returns Can Yield Sudden Wealth
The hardest part of achieving a great long-term investment track record is over half the time your returns will look average. You can go years where it feels like you are working hard for mediocre returns. Then all of a...
Buy Quality, Not the Deepest Discounts, During Sell‑offs
During sell-offs, people rush into whatever has dropped the most. Down 60%? Must be a deal. But a bad business down 60% is still a bad business. Quality matters more when everything is falling. Buy the companies that will come...
Buy a Dollar for Fifty Cents with NCAV Investing
"Net current asset value (NCAV) investing is valuation by liquidation logic." What if you could buy $1 for 50 cents? That’s the logic behind NCAV investing, valuing a company as if it were liquidated today.
40‑Day, 5% Pullback Guarantees No Bear Market
Very interesting stat from @StovallCFRA on @CNBCTheExchange with @LesliePicker today. When it takes >40 days for the S&P 500 to have a mild 5% pullback, it has never moved into a bear market. https://t.co/9Yjk8jEYOD
Tech Valuations Bottom, GPU Prices Surge, Growth Opportunities
Risk/reward seems attractive: Token consumption accelerating, GPU per hour rental prices going vertical and Tech valuations are broadly below their Covid and Deepseek lows. Some high quality secular growth names are at mid single digit multiples on real 27/28 numbers.
Avoiding Mega‑Cap Tech, Holding Energy & Commodities Pays Off
We don’t own what the crowd owns. 🚫📈 ❌ No #Bag7 ❌ No Mega Cap Tech Instead: 🛢️ Energy (XOP) ⚡Utilities (XLU) 💵 USD 🌽 Commodities Result: 📉 Down <1% from highs
Quality Small Caps Outperform Junk Over Four Decades
Over the last ~40 years we've seen a structural outperformance of S&P 600 (profitable small caps) vs Russell 2000 (junky small caps) There are three cyclical peaks: * 1999: Dot Com bubble * 2021: Meme Stock bubble * 2025: AI bubble Speculative junk outperforms late...
Inflation Tax Hits All Assets, Unbalancing ‘Balanced’ Portfolios
If both stocks and bonds can’t catch a bid, the message is simple: inflation risk is a tax on EVERYTHING. That’s why ‘balanced’ can feel unbalanced. https://t.co/TSSid8H3g0
Nvidia's Valuation Drops to S&P 500 Parity After a Decade
$NVDA Nvidia valuation falls to S&P 500 parity for first time in over a decade @seekingalpha GS https://t.co/uI914KMyKJ
Growth Stocks' Market Caps Five Times Value's
Market Caps of Listed Companies by Price to Book, July 1926-December 2025 Since July 1926, the caps of the companies in the low price-to-book (value) portfolio have averaged $1.3 billion, those in the medium portfolio $3.0 billion and those in the...
Even the S&P 500 Can Lose Real Value
$SPY Annualized real returns: 1929 - 1942: -0.9% 1968 - 1982: -0.3% 2000 - 2012: -0.7% Sometimes 'Just buy the S&P 500' doesn't work as well as it has lately.
Stagflation Squeezes Equities: Low Returns, High Volatility
Stagflation is a bad environment for equities, with low (real) returns and high volatility GS Europe https://t.co/QhgQfFdqYh
Lumentum’s $703 Surge Still a Hard Reject
Deep Dive Full Thesis - Is LITE a BUY now at $703? Lumentum Surged 1,436% to $703 on NVIDIA’s $2B Bet + $90B AI Optics TAM — Why My Full Decision Framework Still Says Hard Reject Recent Institutional Rating: - Morgan Stanley —...
Simple ETF List for Beginner Investors: Low‑Fee, Broad Exposure
If you’re a beginner investor, keep it simple: SCHD – dividends ITOT – total U.S. market VT – global exposure SPSM / SPMD / SPYM – size diversification VUG – growth VTV – value IXUS – international Low fees. Broad exposure. Long-term focus.
Three Essentials for Long‑Term Compound Investing
The ultimate investing framework visualization by @safalniveshak: ✅ High-quality business ✅ Owner-oriented managers ✅ Compelling valuations If you don’t have all three, you don't have a long-term compounder. This funnel from Vishal Khandelwal is a must-bookmark for any serious investor.
Portfolios Hit Harder Than Nifty: Rethink Investing
New podcast: A discussion on how portfolios have been disproportionately battered (compared to the Nifty at least) and what are the ways to think about your investments: https://t.co/3XSKkOGrBV
Zero Rates Fueled Stock Surge; Rising Yields Restore Choice
Here's why the last 20(ish) years of stock market returns were so extraordinary, and somewhat predictable. After the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed slashed interest rates to essentially zero and kept them there for years, so cash and bonds paid...
Buying the Dip Delivers Strong Long‑term Market Gains
No one knows how long a correction will last when you're in it But buying stocks when they are down tends to be a good long-term strategy A look at what happens when you buy the stock market down 10%, 20% and...
Meta’s Decade‑Long Resilience Tested by Crises
Meta price and EPS charts in the last decade, marked with every major crisis. Will it weather the storm this time? Detailed analysis 👇🏼 $META
Big Tech's YTD Decline Outpaces S&P, Margins Squeeze
Big Tech is selling off faster than the market. S&P 500 -6.9% YTD Big Tech (MAGS) -15.9% YTD $MSFT -26.2% YTD Capex hit $37.5B in a single quarter. Gross margins dropped to 68% (3-year low). Free cash flow is under pressure. AI is scaling,...
War and AI Doubts Split S&P Price From Earnings
S&P 500 12M forward earnings estimates 8% S&P 500 8% War and AI doubts have fueled an unprecedented divergence between stock prices and earnings estimates https://t.co/op1buWsF30 https://t.co/F9QcLD2WC2
S&P 500 Valuation Drops 17% as Earnings Surge 14%
Worth pointing out that the $SPX multiple has compressed 17% and now stands at 19x forward estimates. And at the same time earning are accelerating and are now expected to grow 14% y/y.
Cautiously Buying Discounted Equities After Cash De‑risking
After de-risking heavily across the board since q4 (went to cash), I’m now nibbling at names I like and are down 30-50% Not jumping out of my seat. Don’t think we’ve bottomed Not buying tokens. Only equities
Most Can't Beat Market; Use Simple Index Strategy
You're probably not going to outperform the market. Neither are most professional fund managers. @DanGreenhaus on the simple investing framework most people should be following📈 $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/LysvwfB3iJ
Value Hunts Assets‑in‑place; Growth Hunts Misvalued Growth
Aswath Damodaran on the difference between value investors vs growth investors "Value investors view their odds of finding market mistakes to be greater with assets-in-place, whereas growth investors feel that their odds are better in finding misvalued growth assets.""
Buy Quality, Skip Speculative Charts for Real Returns
Fiona’s advice for the week. Buy quality. Avoid stocks with no clear path to production. Pretty charts have never produced an LCE. https://t.co/vpJ1GyI4oZ
Reverse Thinking Reveals Hidden Risks in FICO
"The mental habit of thinking backwards forces objectivity." – Charlie Munger. Many investors look at $FICO and see a perfect toll-bridge. But to truly understand it, you have to try to disprove the thesis. That's what I did. I just published Part...
War Spurs Record EPS Upswings Across All Sectors, Tech Leads
Wild chart from @WSJmarkets here. Since the war started, all 11 sectors now have higher 12-month EPS forecasts than before and tech EPS had one of the largest jumps in EPS estimates in history. 🤔 https://t.co/ObyETJ4E3o
Earnings Cycle Accelerates Despite S&P 500 Drop
"The S&P 500 index is down 9.2% from its recent highs, and the P/E ratio is down 18%. That 9 percentage point difference can be explained by an earnings cycle that is not only holding up but accelerating higher:" Fidelity's...
Buffett Credits “Intelligent Investor” As Life‑changing Guide
Warren Buffett on the book The Intelligent Investor. "It changed my life. If I hadn't read that book in late 1949, I would have had a different future. It instantly clicked with me that what [Ben Graham] was saying made sense."
Ferragamo Upgraded as Margins Rise From SKU Cuts
Bernstein upgrades Ferragamo to outperform as SKU cuts, −10% inventories, store reshuffle and wholesale exits boost margins; China execution and partner exits pose risks. Trade: buy FERR. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
PAY's Reorg Cuts Shares 30%, Boosts Dividend Yield
#PAY doing major reorganisation which it says will improve results. On course to reduce Share Count about 30% by FY28. ShareScope has fwd p/e 7.3 falling to 6.7 and fwd Divvy 7% rising to 7.1%. Interesting. I don't hold.
OpenAI's $730B Valuation Masks Potential Earnings Bubble
OpenAI just hit $730B. Up from $500B in October. But here's the uncomfortable part: there may be a bubble in the earnings themselves, not just the stock price. That's rarer. And harder to fix when it corrects. https://t.co/RRKIhVC2EE
SPSY Shows Improved Fundamentals, Potentially Undervalued
#SPSY interesting Update. Cash up, debt down. Seems to have more customers which is good. ShareScope showing fwd p/e 4.4 RISING to 8.9 and fwd Divvy 7% rising to 7.1%. It could be cheap. I don't hold.
Buy the Dip Dispassionately, Unlike Cramer’s Approach
Respectfully, we are "playing" the precipitous drop much differently than @jimcramer. We are buying and dispassionately. We view dips as opportunities given, among other things, the valuation and consensus (EPS) resets. @dougkass
Nidec Faces Governance Shock, Lawsuit and Moody's Downgrade
Nidec governance shock: shareholder demands suit; accounting probe + Moody’s downgrade cut credit & earnings visibility. Risk: litigation, restatements. Trade: Cut Nidec exposure pending report. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Fundamentals Outshine Daily Swings in Volatile Markets
Good reminder. In volatile markets, prices move faster than businesses do, which is why checking balance sheets and earnings strength often gives more clarity than watching daily portfolio swings. If the core fundamentals of a company remain intact, temporary declines...
Buy Quality Stocks Now: War Will Yield Peace Dividend
Some of the highest quality businesses in the world are trading at extremely cheap prices. Ignore the MSM. One of the most one-sided wars in history that will end well for the U.S. and the world. And we have the...