Nvidia's Valuation Outstrips GDP of Most Nations
Nvidia's stock market valuation has now exceeded the GDP of all but 5 countries on Earth? That single company's AI chip dominance is worth more than the annual economy of France, Canada, or Italy. We're witnessing wealth creation at a scale that would have been incomprehensible even 10 years ago.
Value Stocks May Be Bottoming Again, Indicator Warns
Remember March 2000? The tech-heavy indices were at a vertical limit but "unloved" value stocks like Berkshire Hathaway were actually bottoming. Are we seeing a repeat of that specific historical rhyme today? One indicator is flashing red. Read my thoughts here...
Buy More SpaceX Shares As Valuation Drops
SpaceX IPO likely in June. Here is how I'm thinking about participation: 1)priced at $1.75T i'll buy zero shares 2)priced at $1.5T i'll buy 25% position 3)priced at $1.25T i'll buy 50% postion 4)priced at $1T i'll buy a full position
CrowdStrike: Strong Moat Justifies Buy at $390
Deep Dive Full Thesis: Is #CRWD a BUY now at $390? I’ve always loved CrowdStrike. Founder-led. Insane, unbreakable moat. Built to dominate cybersecurity for decades. And after surviving the largest IT outage in history, it just crushed it: record $5.25B ARR + 115%...
Tech Valuations Near Par with Overall S&P
S&P 500 Information Technology forward P/E has declined from a peak of 32x in 2025 to 20.9x, now nearly in line with the overall S&P 500 at 19.9x forward P/E. data from Yardeni Research. Investing
NRP Poised for 30% Upside as Distributions Return
$NRP is up 30% over the past 12 months. With preferreds retired, the company is set to resume higher distributions. Timing has slipped, though, due to a severe soda ash downcycle forcing reinvestment into the segment. Management now guides to likely distributions...
Crocs Paid Half Its Market Cap for Tiny HeyDude Sales
Last year, the Crocs brand sold ~129 million pairs of shoes - or nearly 6x greater than the ~22 million pairs that were sold under the HeyDude brand. In early 2022, Crocs paid ~$2.5 billion for HeyDude. The company's market cap is...
Nike Investors Endure 74% Loss over Five Years
I don’t know what’s more painful: losing 74% of your investment from the highs, or having to sit through it for five years. Tough stretch for Nike investors $NKE https://t.co/qoshCVwoO0
AI-Focused Positioning Drives Nvidia’s Massive Outperformance over AMD
Nvidia vs AMD over the last 5 years: NVDA: +1,158% AMD: +157% Same industry… completely different outcomes. The difference? Positioning around the AI boom. The market rewards companies that dominate trends—not just participate in them.
Average Investors Lag S&P; Index Funds Win
The average investor made 2.1%/yr in 1996-2015 vs 8.2%/yr for the S&P 500. This is exactly why many investors should just invest in index funds and chill. Stop gambling in individual stocks. Stop options trading. Start investing.
Fundamentals Strong, S&P 2026 Target 7100 Signals 9% Gain
"Although sentiment has soured, fundamentals have remained resilient. S&P 500 2026 earnings estimates rose 2% in March, pushing consensus growth expectations up to 17% YoY. At the same time, the S&P 500's forward PE sits ~15% below its recent peak...
Geopolitical Risks Are Temporary; Stick to Fundamentals
Geopolitical Risk Is A Recurring But Temporary Driver Of Markets ➡️While recent developments such as rising oil prices, evolving tariff policy, persistent inflation... can heighten investor anxiety, the more pressing challenge for advisors is helping clients distinguish between short-term noise...
46 Firms Created Half US Market Wealth; Most Stocks Lag
From 1926-2025 just 46 companies accounted for half of the $91 trillion in wealth created by the US stock market 60% of stocks underperformed T-bills Some thoughts on how to own the best stocks: https://t.co/chTC5hDP2I https://t.co/4YIroZABKD
Market Dips Are Normal; Volatility Fuels Long-Term Gains
Over the last 75 years, the average intra-year market drop has been 14%. If you are overly stressed out about the current 9% drawdown, the stock market isn’t for you. Downside volatility is the price investors pay for long-term outperformance....
Even Buffett Times Markets, Not Just Holds
One of the biggest adjustments I‘ve made over the last 12-18 months is becoming much more open-minded to the idea of timing. Still in the process of "getting" market timing. Buffett is arguably one of the greatest market timers in...
ARK Adds Private OpenAI to ETFs, 3% Stake
ARK is going to add private co OpenAI into some of its ETFs. I believe it’s 4th ETF to do this, and def not the last. 3% weighting. Nice scoop from @shiringhaffary @isabelletanlee https://t.co/OITULFSOS1
WNDR.TO Loses Appeal as Spread Narrows, Risks Rise
Time to move on here. $WNDR.TO spread has tightened from ~40% to ~13%, with shares back to prior levels. Op performance has deteriorated meaningfully, and a major early backer has fully exited. With regulatory risk still lingering, the risk/reward no longer...
Stocks Excel Long-Term, Avoid for Short-Term Needs
Investing Quote of the Day: “The stock market has been the best place to be over the last 10 years, 30 years, 100 years. But if you need the money in one or two years, you shouldn't be buying stocks.”...
Don’t Sell Winners, Hold Losers—Like Watering Weeds.
“Selling your winners and holding your losers is like cutting the flowers and watering the weeds.” — Peter Lynch https://t.co/x4zJ9Znyu3
RNWH H1 Cash Meets Expectations, Valuation Improves
#RNWH good H1 Update. Net Cash in line with expectations of £20m. ShareScope has fwd p/e 11.9 falling to 11.2 and fwd Divvy 2.5% rising to 2.6%. Interesting play on infrastructure rebuild. I don't hold.
Sentiment Indicator Signals Approaching Market Bottom, Stay Cautious
Chart of the Week - Sentiment Shifts This week’s chart presents an unusual sentiment indicator which serves a specific purpose to a specific type of market participant. This composite indicator takes into account sentiment readings from surveys + market metrics: the VIX...
IP Leakage Crucial to Valuing Anthropic and Similar AI Firms
Have been discussing how to value companies like Anthropic with some investor friends. The practical likelihood of continuous IP leakage a major factor in valuing the equity imo.
Barbell Investing: Stable ETFs Meet Compute‑Data‑Energy Winners
Thoughts? I discuss how to navigate market crashes using a barbell strategy combining stability and opportunity. We talk about building a foundation with VOO and VTI for security, while positioning for future gains in the power triad of compute, data,...
From Quant Momentum to Buffett: Targeting Cheap Ball‑Bearing Stock
Big news: After 40 years of running quant momentum models fancier than a meat pie at a hatted restaurant, I've decided to go full Warren Buffett. I'm burning the data, binning the computer terminals, and I'm now going deep on...
Quarter-End Rebalancing Fuels Record U.S. Pension Stock Purchases
🇺🇸 Today is the last day for funds to rebalance their portfolios for the quarter-end close. Earlier, Goldman reported that by the end of the quarter, U.S. pension funds could buy equities in amounts close to a historical record as part...
Market Oversold Yet Fundamentals Strengthen with 4.5% ERP
The matrix below shows that the market is oversold, but not to the extremes that has led to low risk contrarian plays in the past. With the P/E ratio down twice as much as price, the fundamentals are looking better...
IT Sector's Forward P/E Aligns with Market
The forward P/Es of the IT sector and the overall market have nearly converged. @augurinfinity https://t.co/AVJYMyYzGn https://t.co/F33svpKEq0
Most Magnificent Seven Stocks Enter Bear Markets, Signaling Leadership Shift
The S&P 500 is only down 9% from its January high. But 6 of the 7 members of the Magnificent Seven are already in bear markets. This is what a shift in leadership looks like. https://t.co/QcFh9RaBaK
Systematic Strategies for Inflation‑Driven Market Regime Shift
With the recent inflation shock and a rapidly changing market landscape, it’s a good time to think more systematically. On our latest @excessreturnpod, we’re joined by @AahanPrometheus to do just that. We cover: - inflation and energy dynamics - shifting expected returns - trend following -...
Buffett Holds Record Cash, Still Waiting to Invest
Warren Buffett is not rushing to enter the market just yet. Berkshire Hathaway currently holds around $382 billion in cash - a record amount in the company’s history. Even amid the market decline, the team is not hurrying to make new purchases....
Vox Royalty Posts Record Year, Debt-Free, Expanding Portfolio
Record year for @vox_royalty: revenue of $16.6M, record operating cash flow of $10.7M, and adjusted EBITDA of $9.3M. Also: debt gone, stock included in GDXJ, and new royalties added. 70+ royalties now, 12 producing = Vox is the royalty stock...
Europe Must Ramp Up Defense as US Pulls Back
It's pretty obvious NATO is in serious trouble. US pulling back will force European Countries to bolster there own defences hugely. Keep holding those big Defence Stock positions :-)
Micron's Drop Stems From Unrelated Blog, Not Fundamentals
Micron hit $471 eight days ago on the best earnings in its history. Revenue tripled. HBM4 sold out. Guidance raised to $33B. Today it trades at $331 — down 30%. The reason? A Google blog post about a year-old compression...
Stay Calm: Long-Term Value Beats Short-Term Panic
Warren Buffett reminds us that stocks might feel risky in the short term, but over the long run, they create real wealth. Even Berkshire Hathaway went through 50% drops, and Buffett stayed confident. Think like an owner, focus on value,...
Stryker's 52‑week Low Signals a Buying Opportunity
Stryker hit a new 52-week low today. Going by the last 40 years, that means it's a buy. https://t.co/Dcwo43vFpe
Energy Surges, Tech Slumps: Market Signals Survival Mode
Q1 rotation: $XLE +20%. $QQQ -4.2%. Money is moving FROM innovation TO survival. That's not a style rotation. That's the market telling you what it believes about the economy. When energy beats tech by 24 points in a quarter, listen. --- https://t.co/SxMLhgCbeX
S&P 500 EPS up 7% YTD, Margins Hit Record Highs
S&P 500 12-month EPS is up about 7% YTD, with half of that coming once the war started. Profit margins have hit new highs as well, not necessarily end of world stuff here. https://t.co/O1CvyznyMm
Apple’s AI Sideline: Hidden Advantage Amid Tech Rush
Deep Dive Full Thesis: Is AAPL a BUY now at $247? Apple just posted its best quarter in history at $247. Yet here’s the contrarian edge most investors are missing: AAPL is still one of the world’s largest and most iconic brands, but...
MU Solid, but Lacks 30% Safety Margin
$MU On March 20, 2026, I dropped my full Deep Dive Thesis on $MU and immediately put it on my personal watchlist. The price at the time? $420. It’s a great company — no debate there. But it simply didn’t offer the 30%+ margin...
PWR Targets $10‑12B Free Cash Flow by 2030
$PWR analyst day: raising 2030 targets for revenue, EBITDA, EPS and ROIC. FCF is expected to go from $1.67B today to $10-$12B aggregate. #electrification #grid #infrastructure
Top Trillion-Dollar Stocks Ranked by Growth-Value Appeal
The Growth-Value analysis of the trillion dollar club: $NVDA, $META, $TSM, $MSFT, $GOOG, $AVGO, $AMZN, $BRK-B, $AAPL, $WMT and $TSLA, in the order from more to less attractive. This is only a screening tool. Need to do in-depth research before...
Consistency and Growth Outperform Chasing High Yields
Dividend ETFs look similar… but they’re built very differently. • VYM → broad, steady income • SCHD → quality + dividend growth • SPYD → higher yield (more risk) • DGRO → consistent dividend growers Chasing the highest yield isn’t always the smartest move. Growth +...
S&P 500 Outperforms Small Caps, Defying Historical Norms
Small caps returned 11% over the past decade. Their historical average? 12%. The S&P 500 returned 15.3% — nearly 50% above normal. Which one's the anomaly? #Stocks #Equities #SmallCaps @rockwealthUK https://t.co/poKgLEYnvn
Buffett's Rule: Skip Hype, Seek Fundamental Value
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett's strategy? Stay away from flashy stocks, and assess fundamentals to find undervalued ones. https://t.co/qsceHG36d7
RIAs Gain Scale Tax‑Free via 721 LP Contributions
This is an interesting idea for RIAs who DO NOT want to join a PE firm, but still want to compete at scale. Tl;dr. Contribute to an LP via 721 (tax free contributions), and essentially diversify with a bunch of...
Oversold Markets Call for Tactical Trades, Steady Investing
$SPX is ~10% off highs and QQQ ~11%, with many names 40–60% off, so it feels like we’re close to an oversold bounce but still not seeing traction. If you trade for a living, be tactical and pick spots carefully;...
Stocks vs Commodities Divergence May Finally Revert
What Stops Stocks vs. Commodities Reversion? An extremely extended US stock market vs. commodities and GDP may have found a worthy spark for reversion, with post-inflation deflation leanings. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/KWrklODsPM {BI COMD} |#commodities #stockmarket #crudeoil @BBGIntelligence
Midterm-Year S&P Drops Average 18%, Rebounds Afterward
Going back to 1926, the S&P 500 has seen an average drawdown of 18.2% in the 12 months before midterm elections. Going back 60 years, the smallest drawdown has been 7.4% while the largest was 41.8% . After the midterms, everything is...
Munger's Inversion: Avoid Stupidity, Achieve Success
Charlie Munger’s 5 ‘Inversion’ Secrets: Why Avoiding Stupidity Is Easier Than Seeking Brilliance For Most People https://t.co/8jCBh7vmM7
HFG Shifts to Meat, Cuts Debt, Holds Dividend
#HFG looks as expected. Debt down a bit which is good. Focus on meat now. Committed to progressive Dividend policy. Looks like seafood/veg might get sold off.