Mega Caps Dominate Again, Narrowing Market Breadth
We have seen a violent return to concentrated, large cap dominance since the start of this month (the little tick down at the end of the series). The chart is equal weight vs market cap: Rising ratio → the average stock is outperforming the mega caps (broad participation) Falling ratio → mega caps are carrying the index (narrow leadership / concentration)
Longi's Q1 Loss Widens Despite Higher Prices and Exports
Chinese solar giant Longi Green Energy saw its net loss widened in the first quarter, despite stronger module pricing and exports offset overcapacity in the sector https://t.co/cC779flaIO
High GRR Shields Value Even as NDR Drops
While "cost containment" can shrink Net Dollar Retention (NDR) if upsells go way down and that does affect terminal value. BUT... ...there's a limit to how much terminal value can be eroded from software if Gross Revenue Retention (GRR) remain extremely...
Historical 10‑Year Growth ~6%—Most DCFs Overestimate
Most 10-year DCF models assume sustained double-digit growth. Historical base rates suggest a different reality. 📉 For the typical Russell 3000 company (1984-2020), the median 10-year sales growth is just 6.2%. Even in Tech, that median drops to 7.2%. If your "conservative"...
Tech‑Driven Earnings Resilience Fuels Global Market Boom
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 28, 2026) Is the global stock market boom partly attributable to the resilience of earnings as technological innovations boost profit margins worldwide? https://t.co/I7VhP9xXJi
FDA Accuses Amgen of Data Manipulation; Erasca Falls
FDA claims Amgen drug data were ‘manipulated’; Erasca slides despite ‘home run’ results https://t.co/UbftjXwEwa $AMGN $ERAS - 53% $RCKT $JANX
Xpel's Free Cash Flow Soars, Stock Still Halves
Not always true, though. Xpel has doubled FCF and FCF/share over the last 3 years, and is very likely to double it again over the next 3 years, yet the stock has been cut in half. Xpel's stock price has...
Illiquidity Becomes a Self‑Control Tool for Long‑Term Investors
Key quote: “long-term investors are shielded from the risks because they can lock up their capital to weather market cycles” The only risk being “shielded” is the risk of being dumb (selling in a panic). That’s not a trivial thing, we’re...
Check Your Portfolio Less for Less Stress, Better Returns
Why checking your portfolio less helps Less checking often means less stress and better outcomes. #LongTermInvesting #BehaviouralFinance https://t.co/vWXJKp3lOU
South Korea Fuels BlackRock’s EM Overweight, Memory Stocks Rally
"BlackRock in April said South Korea was a key driver for its upgrade of emerging-market stocks to overweight"... memory stocks have now become a consensus trade
Carlyle's BDC Discount Model Vastly Underestimates Market Reality
Carlyle's modeled average BDC discount of approximately -5% (based on current credit conditions) is far greater than the average actual BDC discounts of more than -20%, leading to a record "historical variance" in which NAV discounts are far wider...
Spotify Q1 EPS Soars 222% with Margin Expansion
Spotify Q1’26: EPS crush + margin expansion stand out $SPOT Revenue came in at €4.53B, +8.2% YoY. Operating margin reached 16%, up 360 bps YoY. Net margin hit the same level, expanding over 10 points. Cost discipline is clearly working. SG&A...
STRC’s Higher Dividend Skews Its Performance Profile
Strategy preferred complex with consistent lower highs. The only reason $STRC doesn't also look like that is because its dividend rate has been increased from 9% to 11.5% in 8 months since launch. $MSTR $STRC $STRF $STRD $STRK https://t.co/39u3MMZrM7
OpenAI's IPO Race Hampered by Revenue, User Gaps
Oops > OpenAI Misses Key Revenue, User Targets in High-Stakes Sprint Toward IPO https://t.co/OL69xSO5Ar #ai #cio
Higher Inflation Dampens S&P 500, IG, HY Returns
"Periods of higher inflation are associated with weaker returns in the S&P 500 and the IG and HY indexes, consistent with a policy backdrop of elevated interest rates that restrain risk-taking" -Apollo Slok
Earnings‑Driven Tech Stocks Outperform With Lower Volatility
Fundamentals matter, especially within Tech. As investors consider the Tech sector, it's not a question of overweighting the group or not, but rather which Tech stocks to own. Stocks where earnings are doing the heavy lifting have performed far better...
Deep Sail Capital Sees 200% Upside in AMPG
Worth reading this one. Full AMPG pitch by Deep Sail Capital. Base case upside of 200%.
Upcoming Earnings Reveal Divergence in Chinese EV Stocks
Chinese EV stocks face a key test in upcoming results, which will offer clues for investors betting on the recently diverging performance of major players https://t.co/BL0f0WYjSK
ShareScope's Falling P/E and Rising Dividend Signal Potential
#CBOX decent Update. Ambala integration seems to be going OK. ShareScope has fwd p/e 13.3 falling to 11.5 and fwd Divvy 5.7% rising to 6.2%; nice payout and growth potential. I don't hold.
ELCO Beats Forecasts, Valuation Improves, Yet Un
#ELCO Revenue, Adj PBT, Cash "ahead of expectations". Net Cash £16.3m (up). ShareScope has fwd p/e 21.8 falling to 17.5 and fwd Divvy 0.9% rising to 1%, BEFORE news today, 5% rise, and strip out cash. Interesting. I don't hold.
Guidance Dip Amid Competition, yet Growth Persists
#TEP reason for lower end of guidance a mixture of competitive Energy and Broadband markets, Insurance slow to recover, higher churn. On flipside, decent customer growth, decent partner growth and looking at ways to boost earnings per customer.
TEP’s 11.7
#TEP hit 11.7%; two reasons really - Adj PBT at lower end of guidance (so hasn't 'missed') and the change to Shareholder Return Policy with a minimum 50% Dividend, which would still be around 4%. With shares so low, Buybacks...
Insight Enterprises' Strategy and Financials Reveal Market Edge
Insight Enterprises is digging deeper into strategy & financials—Seeking Alpha’s latest article looks at their market edge. Worth a read if you’re tracking NSIT. 📊 TechStocks
Patience Multiplies Returns: Hold Longer, Attract More Buyers
Patience isn't a personality trait. It's a return multiplier. Lynch knew: the longer you hold, the more buyers compete to own what you own. Time creates the crowd that creates your exit. Most people want to be right. Smart investors just want...
Real‑Estate Brokerage Stocks Crash 70‑85% Amid Debt Crisis
Two More Imploded Real-Estate Brokerage Stocks Tie the Knot: REMAX -85% from Peak, Real Brokerage -70%. Been brutal for real-estate stocks plunging from overhyped or meme-stock valuations amid thick losses, lots of debt, frozen housing market https://t.co/0ex7YYwN5x https://t.co/PNvZEUojQM
Spinoffs and Deep‑Value Outperform; Small‑Caps Lag
Greenskeeper Value Fund Q1 2026 highlights: spinoffs and deep-value plays outperformed, while illiquid small-caps lagged. Manager McElligott sees buybacks still supporting value. ValueInvesting
AI Era Forces Investors to Rethink Crumbling Moats
The Sovereign Adaptation — AI-Era Investing When Moats Collapse: What Sticks, Goes, Adapts, New … https://t.co/F65ScfJxju
Middle Eastern Funds to Own 38.5% of Paramount‑WBD
Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery Will Be 38.5% Owned by Middle Eastern Funds Following Close: Filing https://t.co/mg2Z2deDyN via @variety
Look Past the Numbers: Hidden Liabilities Define Safety
Ben Graham didn't just read financial statements. He interrogated them. Because the real liabilities are rarely on page one. They're in the footnotes, the MD&A, the off-balance-sheet disclosures. The margin of safety isn't a number. It's the gap between what the company...
Clean‑Energy Surge Propels First Trust Smart Grid ETF
Clean energy stocks have been generating enormous market gains, and no exchange-traded fund has benefited more than the First Trust Nasdaq Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Index Fund https://t.co/CSwC67stWo
Historic S&P Gains Question Future 17‑Year Growth
S&P 500 returns since 2009: 2009: 🟢 +22.57% 2010: 🟢 +13.24% 2011: 🟢 +0.97% 2012: 🟢 +14.23% 2013: 🟢 +29.08% 2014: 🟢 +14.69% 2015: 🟢 +1.40% 2016: 🟢 +13.67% 2017: 🟢 +20.80% 2018: 🔴 -5.18% 2019: 🟢 +31.32% 2020: 🟢 +17.40% 2021: 🟢 +30.63% 2022: 🔴 -18.63% 2023: 🟢 +26.79% 2024: 🟢 +25.73% 2025: 🟢 +18.14% 2026: 🟢...
Nuclear Stocks Show Low Correlation with S&P 500
BofA: Nuclear power stocks have a low correlation to the S&P 500 $NUKZ $XLU https://t.co/t2mtNnwmGQ
ORKA's Valuation Is Absurd; Biotech Funds Misallocated
A more in depth take on why I think $ORKA's price tag today is among the most ridiculous valuations I have *ever* seen in biotech. Ever. Glad to hear alternative opinions, but I am vehemently of the opinion that the...
Cheap Chinese AI Models Threaten Cloud Giants' Growth Narrative
Watch cloud revenue growth at Amazon, Google and Microsoft this week as they all report on Weds Its been powered by expensive models from Anthropic and OpenAI. But as AI costs blow past budgets, there's a wave of very capable,...
Ignore 52‑Week Highs: Best Buys Often Appear Strong
"The hardest stocks to buy are often the ones the market is telling you are working." My latest memo: Don’t Fear the 52-Week High https://t.co/maO0NjM84P https://t.co/uSecDvzaVW
EM and APAC Gains Powered by EPS Growth, Not Multiples
EM & APAC YTD equity gains stem from EPS growth, not multiple expansion $EEM $VPL GS https://t.co/m4ZsyKrhZv
Tiger Alum Beats Tech Hype with Classic Industries
This Tiger Management alumnus never chased technology stocks. He made his name in airlines, timber, oil — and old economy bets most managers ignored.
AI Drives S&P Tech Profits Toward Semiconductors
Macro: AI shifts S&P tech profits to semiconductors. Key: semis ~42% of IT cap, large earnings upgrades; software faces obsolescence. Trade: overweight semiconductors vs software. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
RMDs Trigger Forced Equity Sales, Yet Allocations Rise
Not sure this is taking place: Many Managed Retirement accounts with active RMD's (Required Minimum Distributions) should have asset allocation models that result in forced Equity selling in order to rebalance the portfolios weightings. Seems like equity allocation are swelling.
Tim Cook's 15-Year Apple: Massive Growth, Mixed Innovations
I wrote about Tim Cook's 15-year run as Apple CEO, from $350B to $4T (and ~300m to 2.5B installed devices). The good (Watch, AirPods, Apple Silicon, Pay, TV+, Maps), the bad (iCar, Siri, app fees, Vision Pro) and the Apple...
ERAS Pan‑Ras Data Released; RVMD Alleges Patent Infringement
$ERAS pan-Ras data update this afternoon after market close. also, $RVMD sent Erasca a letter claiming ERAS-0015 violates certain RevMed patents. https://t.co/QTmyUhT89n
S&P 500 Near Historic Bull Market, 17% Annual Gains
The S&P 500 is now up ~17% annually for the past 17 years We're less than 60% away from perhaps the greatest US bull market of all-time This is now a pantheon-level bull market https://t.co/GzJ85BvQrp https://t.co/2R97D7NOE2
S&P 500 CAPE Hits 41, Highest Since 2000
The S&P 500's CAPE Ratio has moved up to 41, its highest level since 2000 and now above 99% of historical valuations. $SPX Video: https://t.co/8sftndQio4
Equal‑weight S&P Stalls as Cap‑weight Hits Fresh High
As stock indices rise, fewer stocks are going along. This is why the S&P 500 equal-weight index $RSP hasn't made a new high for 40 days, while the cap-weight version $SPY just did. In 70 years, this is only the 3rd time...
Wealthy Families Ditch 60/40 for Smarter Strategies
Most $5M+ portfolios look exactly like a $200K portfolio. Same 60/40. Same S&P 500 index. Same bond allocation nobody wants anymore. The wealthiest families don't actually invest like this. Here's how they actually do it. 🧵
Domino's Sees Growth Despite Macro Pressures, Doubts Rivals' Pace
"Significant macro and competitive pressures" starting in March, per Domino's on this earnings call. They say that the QSR pizza category grew. But they don't believe their competitors can keep up. $DPZ
NOW Selloff Turns Into Potential Buying Opportunity
Just read an interesting take on $NOW: The selloff’s gotten ugly enough to look like a buying opportunity. Valuation compressed, but the biz model is still rock-solid with GenAI tailwinds. Might be worth a look for patient investors. 📉👀 ServiceNow
Sungrow Q1 Profit Drops 40% Amid Storage Competition
Sungrow Power Supply, a top Chinese manufacturer of new energy equipment, said its first-quarter net income declined 40% from a year earlier, amid intensifying competition in the energy storage sector as more players enter the market https://t.co/rj46mx4qDW
Top Factor #3 Drives 10X Stock Returns
The secret of hedge funds is revealed in a 41-page PDF: This paper analyzed 464 stocks that 10X-ed over a 24-year period. Here are the best factors that drive outperformance: (number 3 is the best 🧵)
Value Hunts Existing Mispricings; Growth Seeks Future Misvaluations
Aswath Damodaran on value investors vs growth investors "Value investors view their odds of finding market mistakes to be greater with assets-on-place, whereas growth investors feel that their odds are better in finding misvalued growth assets."