Blue Owl’s Credit Woes Mask Hidden Asset Value
$OWL hit all-time lows today after record redemption requests. The credit business deserves every bit of this. But Blue Owl also has a GP Stakes business and a real assets business that have zero direct connection to software loans or BDC redemptions. Ran a bottoms-up SOTP a couple weeks ago to see if there's a floor for the stock price. https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/blue-owl-capital-owl-the-book-nobody-5bc
Annual Drawdowns Are Inevitable—Embrace Them for Stock Premium
A drawdown of some magnitude happens every year. Expect, prepare for it, and embrace it. This is the reason why you earn a premium for owning stocks. https://t.co/uLbuAmZ29E
MercadoLibre Hits Lowest Valuation in Years
This month's long-form research report MercadoLibre: Cheapest In Years $MELI Read it at Emerging Moats (link in bio) https://t.co/BbrTaKu2SW
Check Point's Discounted Stock Offers Compelling Cybersecurity Value
Check Point stock trades at a big discount to cybersecurity peers. New analysis argues its elite platform, strong profits, & cloud shift make it a compelling value play. $CHKP Cybersecurity
Active Allocation Needed: Three Sells, One Buy
I just released a portfolio update. Four moves. Three Sells. One Buy. One strategy. I am positioning for a period where active capital allocation and a strong stomach will be the primary drivers of performance. Read the full breakdown of...
Invest Simply: Business Moat, Trustworthy Management, High‑Return Reinvestment
Most investors make things too complicated. Chuck Akre simplified it down to just three things: 1️⃣ The Business: High ROE and a "moat" you can see from space. 2️⃣ The Management: Integrity + Skill. They treat you like a partner, not a...
True Quality Takes Decades, Not One-Year Gains
Most investors definition of a quality business or quality management has nothing to do with quality - it’s simply the stock they own that is up the most in the last 12-months. Quality is a label that can only be earned...
Okeanis Eco Tankers: Geopolitical
Okeanis Eco Tankers ($OET) is now a geopolitical play. Strong fleet & finances, but its boom hinges on Red Sea disruptions extending voyages. A top-tier bet on volatile trade routes. shipping
HPS SaaS
HPS: SaaS inflection—FY25 rev +22%, backlog +89%, recurring 72%. Drivers: SaaS ramp, backlog, AI. Risks: FX and H1 margin drag. Trade: Accumulate on dips to 520 MAD. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Tesla Expands Japan Footprint, Boosting Model Y L Appeal
Macro Tesla targets Japan imports lead via store & service buildout. 35→60 stores, service 14→30; Model Y L adds family appeal. Risk: slow EV uptake, German-brand share. Trade: buy TSLA. — Viktor Kopylov PhD CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Coke Now Outprices Microsoft, Defying Gates' Logic
Bill Gates once argued that tech stocks should trade at lower multiples than consumer staples, due to disruption risk. Nearly 30 years later, $KO is trading at a premium to $MSFT https://t.co/kvxe5UxICA
Buy Signal Returns as S&P 500 Drops 9%
The S&P 500 just pulled back 9.1% from its record high. Sentiment indicators are flashing the same buy signal that nailed the bottom last April. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/GcAng779YL
Buy Fear, Sell Euphoria: Invest Amid Uncertainty Now
The best time to invest in businesses is when there is widespread fear and uncertainty. It pays to buy fear and sell euphoria. The fear is very elevated right now, the risk/reward is favourable.
Crisis-Driven Growth Stock Dip Signals Buying Opportunity
The geopolitical conflict has caused growth stocks to come under severe pressure and valuations are now compressed. The near-term may be choppy but historically periods of extreme fear and crisis have turned out to be buying opportunities. This time should...
Sleep Soundly: Grow Portfolio without Stock Picking
If I wanted to grow my portfolio without picking a single stock and still sleeping well at night, here's exactly what I'd do. (No gatekeeping)
Follow Pro Steps to Spot Winning Stocks
For most investors, a well-diversified portfolio of funds will do the trick. But if you want to try to identify winners like the pros on Wall Street, there are steps you can take. https://t.co/6RP6PY8ebH
Yardeni Confirms Market Bottom Amid Thursday Volatility
Ed Yardeni tells CNBC the market bottom is in. He's sticking to his thesis despite Thursday's volatility. https://t.co/rnvPZiNW7A
SpaceX's IPO Valuation Skyrockets at Astronomical Multiples
SpaceX trying to go public at 80x forward sales, 500x forward earnings, and 125x forward EV/EBITDA multiple https://t.co/rk6SKuODJy
Markets Rise Amid Volatility; Seize Long-Term Opportunities
Despite the volatility this week: $SPX +3.4%, $DJIA +3% and $CCMP +4.5%. Solid econ data as well. Volatility is expected to continue until war ends but if you wait for certainty you will miss some great LT...
Defy Base Rates Only When Conviction Is Proven
"If you have a strong conviction that they're gonna do something other than the base rate, then you better be very, very good in making that assumption or calculation." Base rates usually win. But the great companies defy them. I thought...
Small Caps Reclaim Long‑Term Edge Over S&P
Small cap stocks outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 12 months (first chart). After bottoming against the S&P 500 mid-November 2025, small caps have staged a sharp recovery. This is in line with the long-term regime of smalls > bigs (second...
Gold‑Bitcoin Momentum Converges, Undermining 60/20
My 60/20/20 model has not been spared by the current risk-off episode, as weakness in gold and international equities have offset any benefit from my underweight to bonds. Looking at the momentum curves below, it looks like the “jaws” between...
Visa at $299: Strong Fundamentals Signal Buy
Deep Dive Full Thesis: Is VISA a BUY at $299? Visa just hit its 52-week low at $299, despite record Q1 revenue and a rock-solid 4.1% FCF yield. This is one of my all-time favorite companies: a true cash-printing machine with an...
Tesla's 186× PE Stays High Amid Falling Earnings
$TSLA trades at 186x earnings. Given declining earnings, the PE will remain high unless the stock declines, which might be hard for some to comprehend. https://t.co/wc9fE48KQC
Fed Model Returns: Rates Matching Equities Threaten Stocks
One of my main themes since the rate reset in 2022 is that the Fed model is “back.” The Fed model, popularized by Alan Greenspan during the 1980’s, holds that when the risk-free rate (Treasuries) is competitive with risky assets...
Short‑Term Losses Mask Long‑Term Defense Innovation Gains
Given reports this week that Pete Hegseth tried to buy defense stocks prior to launching the Iran war, much attention has been paid to the failure of that trade. The index he attempted to buy, IDEF, has fallen ~13% over...
Magic Formula Reveals Top 50 High‑Cap Value Picks
Now that most companies reported, lets run Greenblatt's Magic Formula and check what companies it returns. I regularly find quite a few interesting ones. These are the top 50 stocks that the formula churned out, based on a market cap of >$50m...
NBIS Target Cut to $215 Amid Financing Doubts
The perma bull on $NBIS cutting their Price tgt to $215 and making a sly comment "We continue to believe that NBIS is innovating faster on the software front relative to other AIaaS peers, but we are slightly incrementally concerned...
Embrace Market Downturns: They Fuel Future Upside
The stock market goes down roughly once every four years, on average, and bear markets are a regular occurrence. Investors should embrace this risk because without the left side of this chart (downside) there would be no right side (upside)....
SoFi Remains Strong Amid Geopolitical Turmoil, Bullish Long-Term
$SOFI platform continues to get stronger despite IRAN conflict puking all over equities. Short term is extremely volatile for the entire market but hard not to be long term bullish on this company. 💪🏻
Pay for the Process, Not Each Individual Pick
Great to hear. Paying for the process matters a lot more than every single "pick"
Dev Kantesaria Doubts Big Tech's Capital Allocation Predictability
Dev Kantesaria on not investing in $META and Big Tech "I was never happy with the capital allocation of these big tech businesses... it doesn't have the predictability that we like to see."
Great Companies, Not Graham, Drive Real Wealth
“I saw immediately that Ben Graham was wrong. The real money was in the really great companies which carried you up and up and up.” - Charlie Munger
Buy Selectively on Pullback, Backed by Buyback
Macro: infrastructure demand; Key: GFL raises dividend 10%, closed Frontier, $15.6B mkt cap, 10% buyback; Risk: stock appears rich; Insight: buy selectively on pullback supported by buyback. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Trump’s Iran Rhetoric Signals Endless Conflict, Delays Bull Market
Thoughts? Trump's escalation rhetoric toward Iran could mean we're entering an era of perpetual global conflict rather than isolated wars, a continuous cycle that's impossible to resolve quickly. Compute, data, energy, infrastructure, and defense-adjacent industries—could quietly benefit from prolonged instability,...
Essential 2026 Charts to Track This Quarter
10 Charts to Watch in 2026 [Q2 Update] https://t.co/7SifuiD3Zx Key charts and issues to keep track of in the year ahead and beyond... https://t.co/Smunb8N2A2
Nike's Stock Reflects Global Influence of American Culture
Why does the share price of Nike matter? Few businesses have come to symbolize American culture to the rest of the world like Nike.
Activists Target Hidden ONE Cash, Driving Discounted Value
Another standard-looking activist headline, but for those in the know, this situation runs a lot deeper. I’ll explain. Elliott is asking shipping firm Mitsui OS&K for better cash returns to shareholders. Quite a standard approach for activists everywhere, and Japan is...
Low P/E Misleads When Earnings Are Leveraged or Cyclical
"A low P/E is irrelevant if earnings are inflated by leverage or cyclicality." A “cheap” stock isn’t always a bargain. A low P/E ratio can be misleading. Sometimes earnings look strong only because the company is heavily in debt. Other times, especially...
Dollar Gains Boost Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Materials
Sector work, 12/31/1989 - 3/31/2026. We find a strong relationship between US dollar direction and four specific sectors: 1) Discretionary 2) Energy 3) Industrials 4) Materials Not necessarily in that order. How to read the table: "Tallying all the months when the dollar index went up over...
NVIDIA's CUDA Lock‑in Faces Erosion, Ending Its Edge
Right now, NVIDIA is the only company here that has a network effect (due to CUDA lock-in). That seems likely to change over the next 1-2 years, as CUDA lock-in erodes, reducing NVIDIA's margins. It may be that eventually none...
S&P Forward P/E 19.2x; 8 Cheap Growth Stocks
The Forward P/E for the S&P 500 is now sitting at just 19.2x. 🧵Here are 8 stocks trading even lower with double digit earnings growth:
Apple’s AI Future Unlocks Upside for Investors
Happy Birthday $AAPL. After 50 years of thinking different, I believe that Apple’s most profound feature is still in the making: personalized AI. Apple + AI remains appears to be one of the most underappreciated opportunities in tech. Glad to be an...
Portable Alpha Gains Momentum Amid Liquidity Challenges
State of the Portable Alpha Landscape I sit down with Shane McCarthy of LAB Quantitative Strategies for a deep dive into the portable alpha and return stacking landscape, including fresh survey data on how allocators are approaching this space today. 00:00 Welcome...
Banks Play IPO Auditions as OpenAI Valuation Soars
"Don Corleone, I am honored and grateful that you have invited me to your daughter's wedding. And I pledge my ever-ending loyalty." — Luca Brasi The big story beneath the story of OpenAI's $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation is...
SpaceX IPO Defies $1B Revenue Ceiling, Aims Massive Scale
Pretty momentous day when SpaceX files for possibly the largest IPO ever. I remember when VC colleagues used to say this company had stalled at $1B or so of revenues, and that a space taxi company could only be *this* big,...
Earnings Estimates Surge 19% Amid 9% Market Drop
For me the most interesting thing last week was that earnings estimates not only held up despite the turmoil, but accelerated higher. The 52-week rate of change for the 12-month forward EPS estimate is now up to 19% despite the...
EU Defense Small Caps Poised for Decade-Long Gains
Interesting to see recently listed EU defense small caps Gabler $X4K and Vincorion $V1NC not participating in the recent sector rally. On the other hand, nobody knows them yet. Both rapidly growing, profitable, good b/s, decent valuations. Doesn't matter whether Trump will exit...
Nvidia's Valuation Outstrips GDP of Most Nations
Nvidia's stock market valuation has now exceeded the GDP of all but 5 countries on Earth? That single company's AI chip dominance is worth more than the annual economy of France, Canada, or Italy. We're witnessing wealth creation at a...
Value Stocks May Be Bottoming Again, Indicator Warns
Remember March 2000? The tech-heavy indices were at a vertical limit but "unloved" value stocks like Berkshire Hathaway were actually bottoming. Are we seeing a repeat of that specific historical rhyme today? One indicator is flashing red. Read my thoughts here...