LFCR Undervalued; Upcoming Site Transfers Could Drive 25% Margins
$LFCR beaten down again on fears of equity issuance, lingering preferred concerns, and general liquidity worries. They have enough liquidity to cover the preferreds. Debt is not a concern as of yet. Meanwhile, the company has reported 5 site transfers in the last few months. These are revenue-generating product transfers that just need to clear regulatory red tape over the next 18-24 months. Once that happens, I get to ~$170M in conservative sales with $43M in EBITDA, roughly 25% margins vs 20% today. That gets us to 10x 2028 EBITDA. I mean, that's cheap for CDMO, and that's a very conservative estimate, not counting any potential phase 3 asset approvals or additional site transfers, which look quite likely given the recent pace. If they hit full capacity, this is dirt cheap. But let's not go there yet. Yes, everyone is tired of the thesis. But nothing major has broken since new management came in. Just took a closer look. Happy to hear other thoughts. Pic below does not include 3 more commercial site transfers.
Brian Niccol's Turnaround Validates “Back to Starbucks” Plan
Two years ago, Starbucks issued a disastrous earnings report that ultimately spelled doom for Howard Schultz's handpicked CEO. On Tuesday, Brian Niccol delivered a milestone quarter that proved his "Back to Starbucks" plan appears to be working. $SBUX https://t.co/5Q7A4A2xVb
Spot Winning M&A and Buybacks with 10 Essential Charts
Billions of dollars are wasted every year on bad M&A and poorly timed buybacks. Michael Mauboussin’s updated 2025 paper on Capital Allocation explains exactly why – and how to spot the winners before the market does. I’ve distilled his latest research...
ZIM Dividend at Risk as Freight Rates Cool
ZIM’s dividend is looking shaky as freight rates cool. The post-pandemic shipping boom is over, and with new vessel supply flooding in, earnings are expected to drop. A dividend cut feels inevitable, and the risk/reward has soured. 🚢 ShippingStocks
Bull Markets Outlast and Outpace Bear Markets
Bear markets pale in comparison to bull markets, both in market movement and duration. A good reminder for every long-term investor. https://t.co/vext5HiTeH
Research and Timing Matter Beyond “Buy What You Know”
Lynch also eventually set the record straight, saying people took his “buy what you know” advice out of context. Buying market leading popular consumer facing companies like Blockbuster video or K-Mart at the wrong time would have been a disaster. Both...
Premium Brands Holds 75% Upside Potential
This morning, Alta Fox published a press release and full thesis deck on $PBH CN (Premium Brands Holdings), a business we believe is significantly undervalued with 75%+ upside in our base case. The materials outline our investment thesis and highlight...
Stay Invested: S&P 500 Wins 75% of Years
The S&P 500 averages ~10% per year… But the reality? • Best year: +34% • Worst year: -38% • Positive ~75% of the time Long-term investors win by staying invested, not timing it.
Deutsche Börse Downgraded to Hold as Upside Caps
Deutsche Börse’s strong execution is now fully priced in. At a forward P/E of ~22x, upside looks capped—downgrading from Buy to Hold. Quality business, but fair valuation limits the risk/reward. Markets
Aschenbrenner’s AI‑Era Fund Boosts Bloom Energy 13‑fold
Aschenbrenner is the top fund manager of the AI Era (KISS). Bloom energy now a 13X since he got involved. $BE https://t.co/RJrhSug8xs
Betting on Undervalued Companies That Beat Low Expectations
Lowell Capital on investing in good businesses with low expectations "Our general experience is that if the business can exceed these low expectations or generate results that are less bad than expected, the stock price is likely to increase. We spend a...
Build Portfolios for Unexpected Storms, Not Just Forecasts
Elroy Dimson spent decades studying markets. His sharpest insight had nothing to do with returns. "More things can happen than will happen." Most portfolios are built for the forecast. The best ones are built for the storm that wasn't in it.
Insider Buying Signals Confidence Amid Q1 Decline
Ugly 1Q2026 numbers from United Tractors UNTR IJ. Komatsu sales volumes -20% YoY. But Astra insiders are buying. Coal prices have risen recently. And I think the coming El Niño will be positive for volumes from 3Q2026 onwards.
Sopra Steria Revenue Dips, Order Book Rises, Outlook Steady
Sopra Steria’s Q1 2026 revenue dipped due to a “cyclical downturn” in consulting, but their order book grew & full-year guidance is steady. UK public sector and CSRD software are bright spots. SopraSteria
AI Capex Gains Matter Only When Revenue Follows
Earnmaggedon tonight: Microsoft Alphabet Amazon Meta all report within minutes of each other after the closing bell. AI capex is only bullish if it’s translating into real, measurable revenue and higher forward guidance. Brace.
Focus on Profit Impact, Not Revenue Share, of Top Customers
FWIW - Analysts need to stop asking companies what percentage of their revenue comes from the top of the K and start asking them what percentage of their profits the top contributes to the bottom line.
Youthful Voices Guard Veteran Investors From Risk Paralysis
The natural course for stock pickers is to get more negative and contrarian as you age. You develop more experience in how quickly good things can come to an end in every facet of life, business and the markets. It...
CEO Exit Signals Possible Sale, Limited Upside
$RYAM setup looks diabolical. Company exploring a sale and just let go of the CEO. Not just any CEO, a big shot turnaround hire brought in just this January. Back in November, 5% shareholder AIP lobbed a strategic bid at $11-12/share. Rejected...
Earnings‑driven Stocks Outperform with Lower Volatility
"Stocks where earnings are doing the heavy lifting have performed far better over time, with less volatility and smaller drawdowns. Price mo, driven by EPS mo, is the best mo" -Michael Kantro, Piper Sandler
Soft Results, yet Cash Rises and Dividend Increases
#W7L results a bit soft. Net Cash £17.3m (up). Increased Dividend to 13p for the year (7.4% on 175p). Brand Architekts integration appears to be going well. Products into new Retailers in many countries. Signs of recovery in April...
Assura Integration on Track, Dividend Yield Near 8%
#PHP AGM Update reads fine; doesn't seem long since the last update. Assura integration ahead of schedule. ShareScope showing fwd Dividend Yield 7.8% rising to 8%; still a big Yield on a very stable business.
Analysts Raise SNDK Targets on AI‑Driven NAND Surge
The institutional target prices for $SNDK. Morgan Stanley: $1,100 Overweight. Up from $690; Strong NAND pricing and robust AI demand ahead of Q3 earnings. Cantor Fitzgerald: $1,400 Overweight. Up from $1,000; Excellent pricing advantage and AI tailwinds. Bank of America (BofA): $1,080 Buy. Up from $900;...
Eco Recycling Posts ₹2,377 Lakh FY26 Profit, Expands Ownership
Eco Recycling FY26 Net Profit at ₹2,377 Lakhs Eco Recycling Limited reported net profit of ₹2,377 lakhs for FY26, with revenue from operations at ₹4,818 lakhs. The Board approved audited financial results and acquisition of remaining stake in subsidiary Ecoreco Park...
Good Stock? Only at the Right Price
Most investors ask "Is this a good stock?" Wrong question. The right one: "Is this a good stock at this price?" The same business can be your best investment or your worst, depending on what you paid. Price isn't just a number. It's...
S&P 500 Still Below Inflation-Adjusted Peak After 16 Years
More than 16 years after the tech bubble burst, the S&P 500 was still below its inflation-adjusted peak. Now that's what we call a bubble. https://t.co/7QyYxKECs4
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Purdue $5.5B sentence clears way for $7.4B settlement and bankruptcy exit. Legal exposure shifts to claims; recoveries will be constrained and reputational risk endures. Trade: reduce exposure to legacy opioid-linked pharma. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Semiconductors Claim Record Share of S&P 500 IT
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 28, 2026) The S&P 500 Semiconductors industry now accounts for a record 41.9% and 47.1% of the S&P 500 Information Technology sector's market capitalization and forward earnings. Do you think this is sustainable? https://t.co/mmJzuPj5Sb
Google's AI Stack Offers Massive Upside Potential
$GOOGL has plenty of upside from here. The most complete AI stack in the business. 👏🏻🚀
Mersen Q1 2026 Call Highlights Market Outlook
Mersen (CBLNY) dropped its Q1 2026 sales call transcript. Key takeaways on market conditions and outlook from management. Worth a read if you’re tracking industrial plays. 📉📈 EarningsSeason
Market Misprices Lithium: Brazil, Canada Offer Arbitrage Opportunity
Brazil is a Tier One mining jurisdiction. Canada is a sophisticated capital market for mine financing. Why does Mr. Market continue to underappreciate and undervalue its lithium producers and developers? Modern portfolio theory suggests such arbitrage should not exist where...
Equity Hedging and Commodities Boost Portfolio Performance
I recently had the pleasure of appearing on Dean Curnutt's excellent AlphaExchange podcast. The goal was to detail how a carefully designed combination of equity index hedging and long commodities can meaningfully improve the performance of a traditional asset allocation...
Buy the Price‑value Gap, Not the Hype
Investors spend years trying to predict which businesses will transform industries. Graham spent his career not caring about that at all. He wasn't buying stories. He was buying the gap between price and provable value. Stories change. Spreadsheets don't lie.
Starbucks Lifts Same‑store Sales Target to 5%+
Starbucks raised its expectations for same-store sales this year to 5% or better globally and in the U.S. $SBUX
Starbucks Forecasts Lower Tariffs, Coffee Costs Later 2024
Starbucks expects tariffs and coffee prices to ease in the back half of this year. $SBUX
Airport Traffic Boosts Starbucks Licensed Same‑store Sales
Strong airport demand led to improving same-store sales in the Starbucks licensed business last quarter. $SBUX
Visa's Double-Digit Growth Fuels $7.9B Buyback
Visa continues to be a beautiful compounder with Strong double-digit growth & did $7.9B in buybacks $V
CEO Buys 6.9K Shares, Signaling No M&A Imminent
$CHTR President and CEO Christopher Winfrey discloses purchase of 6.9K shares So I guess no M&A imminent. 🧐
Visa Posts Double‑digit Earnings Growth and $20B Buyback
$V Q2’26 EARNINGS up 4% everyone • Revenue $11.23B vs $10.74B ✅ • Adj EPS $3.31 vs $3.10 ✅ • Payments Volume +9% • Cross-Border +12% • Transactions 66.1B vs 66.39B ⚠️ Highlights: • Strong double-digit growth (+17% rev, +20% EPS) • Cross-border still leading (high-margin driver) •...
AI Flags Hidden Related‑Party Risk in TOYO’s Revenue
AI is great for assessing risk. Since I'm generally a half glass full investor, I find this really helpful. Related party risk is one we used to look for when @GeoInvesting was writing short reports. So, it's a risk I...
Starbucks Comps Surge 6.2% on Transaction Growth
Starbucks global comps up 6.2%, "led by transaction growth." North America/U.S. up 7.1%, including 4.3% transaction growth. That's the best result since 2023. The company is crediting its new "green apron" service model. Revenues up 8.8% to $9.5B. EPS 45...
Ibotta Is Actually a B2B Ad‑Tech Platform
Day 14 of 30: How $IBTA Ibotta actually makes money (which one should I do next?) Most people think it's a consumer cashback app It's not. It's a B2B ad-tech company that uses cashback as the user-acquisition wrapper And the latest earnings exposed the...
Philippines Dividend Yield Hits Record, JP Morgan to Index Bonds
The Philippines' stock market is so depressed that its dividend yield is back to Lehman collapse levels. At 3.22%, the country's dividend yield is now more than two percentage points higher than the US, marking a record in a multi-decade...
Current Market Mirrors 2009, Promising Massive Long-Term Rally
"This market reminds me a lot of 2009." "You mean we're going to rally 750% in over the next 17 years?"
Endless Hype: Past Returns Don’t Guarantee Future Gains
Waking up and seeing 12 secular bull 100 year charts, 6 'here's what happens when you buy ath's' tables, and 3 'had you bought this stock 15 years ago and held it for this long you'd have 58M dollars' tweets...
AWS Deal Boosts Confidence in Amazon’s Growth Thesis
Wrote this growth thesis on $AMZN driven by @awscloud before this OpenAI deal. This only gives me far more confidence in the AWS growth story. https://t.co/nNOw2zxeuB
Cheap Stock Edge May Be One‑Country Fluke
Fama & French said cheap, unloved stocks beat the market.The response from critics: "You just tortured the data until it confessed." Fair point. One country, one dataset. Maybe it was a fluke.
Earnings Surge Shields Market, Fuels Potential Upside
Booming earnings growth has been a dominant feature of the market’s resilience amid some unsettling geopolitical headlines. Were it not for earnings estimates accelerating to a 20% year-over-year rate, surely the recent 9.8% drawdown would have been closer to the...
OpenAI IPO Unlikely, Could Impact Semiconductor Returns
So does OpenAIs IPO matter to semi returns? And by ‘matter’ I mean, not having one… OpenAI’s Q4 2026 IPO Might not Happen, by @friedmandave $SMH $QQQ $SPX https://t.co/XJDawToZrm
April Record Highs Guarantee Positive Yearly Returns
Here's a fun, random, stat I've teased. Since 1960 (or even 1950), when the S&P 500 closes the month of April at a new all-time high monthly close, the remainder of the calendar years performance has never been negative. A perfect...
Earnings Power Drives Market to New Highs Amid Conflict
Why didn't the stock market fall further in the face of a war in the Middle East and an oil price spike? Why are we already back at new all-time highs? In a word -- earnings https://t.co/qfWzRKurxU https://t.co/2MrOBldvIL