US Earnings Growth Surge Drives Bear Market Mauls
One of the main reason why bears are getting mauled is the massive re-acceleration in US Earnings Growth 302 of $SPX companies have reported an aggregate y/y EPS acceleration of +30% It was #Quad1 in Q1 Goldilocks, indeed https://t.co/Qn1H0iXCMp
Meridian Q1 2026 Delivers 26
$MRDN Q1 2026! Small cap trading 4x EV/ADJ EBITDA whilst growing topline at 17% and ADJ EBITDA at 26% - Rebranding to Meridian is completed. - Best revenue growth in 4 quarters. - Strong ADJ EBITDA growth of 26%. - Net leverage ratio down...
PSON Shows Improving Valuation and Dividend Despite AI Risks
#PSON been in a pretty rough state for years, but recent updates do seem more promising, despite AI potential to disrupt. SharePad has fwd p/e 15.6 falling to 13.9 and fwd Divvy 2.5% rising to 2.7%. I don't hold.
Microsoft Beats Expectations
ICYMI - .@Microsoft beats expectations, but its guidance comes up light, disappointing investors https://t.co/IGFe4hYg5s. “Its cash flow remains positive despite the substantial spending on AI infrastructure, but investors will want to see this balance maintained in the coming quarters.” #Earnings
Pan Mine Boosts Cash Flow, Guides Strong Gold Production
Pan mine generating cash flow. Q1 2026 gold sales lifted unrestricted cash to $46 mil. 2026 guidance: 32-38koz Au at AISC US$1,850-2,000/oz. Pan cash flow to largely fund low-capex growth Stronger company FCF expected to ramp in 2027+ $maiff @MineraAlamos #goldproducer https://t.co/hCMCByPZir
Position Sizing Drives 70‑80% of Trading Success
"What I actually learned is that position sizing is probably 70 to 80 percent of the equation. It's not just about being right or wrong, it's about how much you make when you're right." — Stanley Druckenmiller https://t.co/S37S7hSPet
Spending Nintendo Day Finishing Deep Dive for Release
Today is Nintendo day $NTDOY. I'm going to dedicate the next few hours to finishing my Nintendo deep dive (already 2 hours in) and will hopefully be able to release it later today.
Apple Poised for Golden Era Under New AI Strategy
Apple’s monster iPhone June growth guide, robust Services, and now the AI strategy ahead puts this tech stalwart into a potential golden era with Ternus taking the baton from the Hall of Famer Cook. $350 PT and all eyes on...
Activist Oasis's Kao Board Challenge Fails, Pressure Remains
Have you heard the story of the battle between the "P&G of Japan", Kao Corporation, and one of the largest and most successful Japan-focused shareholder activists? This one has everything. Kao is a household name, with a...
Zeta's 50% Revenue Surge Masks Ongoing Losses
$ZETA delivers 50% revenue growth and improving profitability — but why are operating losses still present? Revenue reached $396M, up nearly 50% YoY, marking another strong acceleration. Growth is being driven by the core platform, with direct platform revenue up over...
High‑Tech Capital Spending Hits Record 55% of Non‑Residential Outlays
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 30, 2026) High tech now accounts for 55% of all nonresidential capital spending — a record high as of Q1-2026. Businesses are betting heavily on digital over physical. Is this shift structural or still...
Avoid New Senseonics Longs Until Post‑Offer Clarity
Senseonics priced $80M at $5 vs $6.61. Strong current ratio & 57% revenue growth but heavy cash burn and EPS miss. Risk: dilution/opex. Trade: avoid new longs until post-offer clarity. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Overweight PSH to Boost EPS via Fee Cuts
Macro: fee-conscious markets. Key: PSH cuts performance fees by offsetting 20% of PSUS manager fees after $5bn IPO. Risk: IPO closing/AUM growth. Insight: overweight PSH for fee-driven EPS lift.— Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Seagate’s Premium May Pay Off With AI‑Driven Demand
Seagate’s high price tag might be worth it. 📈 They lead with HAMR tech, and as AI fuels data demand, this “overvalued” stock could outperform. Sometimes paying a premium for the right tech pays off. 🚀 Storage
Snap-On Trades at Discount, Potential Value Play
Snap-On (SNA) looks like it's trading at a clear discount right now. If the fundamentals hold up, this could be a solid value play for patient investors. 🛠️💼 ValueInvesting
Pro Strategies to Identify Winning Investments
For most investors, a well-diversified portfolio of funds will do the trick. But if you want to try to identify winners like the pros on Wall Street, there are steps you can take. https://t.co/6RP6PY8ebH
Apple Abandons Net‑cash‑neutral Goal Amid AI Push
Interesting that Apple dropped “net cash neutral” as a formal target after 7 years. With a new CEO coming and AI investment ramping, the flexibility to evaluate cash and debt independently makes sense. $AAPL
Four Key Levers for Valuation: Growth, Margins, Capital, Risk
Aswath Damodaran on the 4 levers to valuation 1. Revenue Growth 2. Operating Margins 3. Reinvestment (or Investment Capital Turnover) 4. Risk (Continuous and Discrete)
AVB Exploits Valuation Gaps with Classic REIT Recycling
$AVB is smartly playing valuation gaps in today’s market—buying where prices are low, selling where they’re high. Classic REIT capital recycling in action. 🔄 REITs
Apple’s Modest Rise Hints at Future Growth Super‑cycle
$AAPL up 4% does not reflect how good the guide was. In a vacuum, I would have expected the stock to be up closer to 10% on that guide. I believe the reason is investors are thinking about what's after...
True Success Is Keeping Profit, Not Just Reporting It
The best businesses don't just report profits. They keep them. When earnings convert to cash and stack as retained equity, compounding quietly does the rest. That's not accounting. That's the whole game.
Google’s AI Bets Turn $3B Into $112B
Has anyone pulled out from $GOOGL earnings the AI as a business vs investment? Google put $3B into Anthropic in 2023 worth $112B on paper now. Their $1B SpaceX bet from 2015 is now worth $107B on paper now. Just askin'
IPhone Growth Likely Cycles: 10% Every Third Year
$AAPL investors need to start thinking about iPhone growth next year. This fiscal year iPhone will grow around 17%. Next year the Street is expecting 5%. The 5% is ahead of the growth we saw in 2023-2025. FY25 - 4% FY24...
Roblox Slashes FY Sales, Bookings Below Street Forecasts
Juuuuuuuust a bit outside: Roblox full year sales and booking guidance to ~$6B and ~$7.5B Street had 2026 sales and bookings at $6.6B and $8.4B, respectively https://t.co/w8SZ5OCN6O $RBLX via @paigehtml https://t.co/9TtSy4cF51
Roblox Cuts Bookings Guidance by $1 B After Safety Updates
New: Roblox lowered its full-year bookings guidance by about $1 billion after implementing child-safety updates that the company says slowed user growth. https://t.co/mdvtYDevtC
Apple Beats Forecast, Guides Revenue Above Street Expectations
Overall the Apple numbers looked great. ➡️The stock is down 0.5% which is noise. ➡️The guide is what counts. I expect revenue guide higher than the 9% that the Street is looking for in June. ➡️Revenue growth was 17%,...
Apple Beats Estimates, Shows Broad Segment Strength
$AAPL this is a clean beat with broad strength. iPhone +22%, Services +16%, China +28%, gross margin 49.3%, and the $100B buyback. If management’s call commentary does not walk down June-quarter expectations, this should read bullish.
Fully Allocated Beta Beats SPY With Commodity Edge
YTD DSSmartBeta up 6.1% DSAlpha up 0.9% DSAlphaBeta up 7.0% SPY 5.74% Less risk more return. Works for me. Still sucks I bought puts at 6960 SPX cash. OOF. All forms of fully allocated beta are blowing away SPY. Without that massive...
RDDT's Q1 Surge Highlights Massive Undervalued Growth Potential
Another phenomenal earnings report for $RDDT... Q1 revs of $663M, up +69% YoY Q1 ebitda of $266M, up +131% YoY Q1 eps of $1.07, up +664% YoY Q1 gross margin of 91.5% $RDDT beat Q1 revenue estimates by +8.9% $RDDT beat Q1 ebitda estimates by +18.2% Meanwhile...
Memory and Storage Firms Enjoy Soaring Gross Margins
The continued era of margin expansion for memory and storage players. $SNDK gross margin 78.4% $WDC gross margin 50.2%
5% Monthly Gains Forecast 84% Chance of Strong Year
>5% monthly returns tend to suggest the following year will be stronger than average. Up 13.7% on average and higher a year later more than 84% of the time. Here's how all 12 months do, with April clocking in about average. https://t.co/QP9xVmJcoD
Google's Past Skepticism Faded as Stock Rebounds
Good time to look back at the sentiment on $GOOGL at the low years ago. I'd note 200 WMA but also endless headlines about losing to ChatGPT et. There literally were people on CNBC saying they liked Mag-7 'except for...
Amazon Beats Earnings, Hits Record CapEx, Margin Rebounds
.@Amazon cruises to another solid earnings and revenue beat https://t.co/WhVpBH2Bjj "Purchases of property and equipment reached an all-time high at $147B, but operating margin has recovered to 37+%, which is a good sign to sustain spending, ... #Earnings
Beyond 60/40: Bonds No Longer Guaranteed Diversifier
I continue to advocate looking beyond the simple 60/40 paradigm to seek protection from both the 60 and the 40. Bonds are still a viable asset class but they are no longer a surefire diversifier to equities. https://t.co/8GRaglZUAs
Only 3% Cut Guidance, Half Historic Average
BESPOKE: “.. only 3% of companies have lowered guidance this season. That's much lower than the 8% that have lowered guidance out of the 90,000+ reports we've tracked over the last ten years.” @bespokeinvest https://t.co/mjNHjwceNE
Oil Price Shock Ripples Through Inflation, Rates, Stock Valuations
The Iran-Hormuz story is not "just geopolitics" Here is the money chain Supply threat pushes crude up higher crude feeds inflation expectations higher inflation pressure keeps rates sticky sticky rates compress growth-stock multiples So even if your portfolio has zero oil names...you still feel this through...
Rebalancing Works—If Assets Stay Uncorrelated in Downturns
Rebalancing a diversified portfolio is one of the more robust strategies out there. Shannon showed with his “Shannon’s demon” portfolio that periodic rebalancing of two alpha-less investments could make money; the fly in the ointment is that they need to...
Microsoft's AI Spend Secures Enterprise Agent Stack
Full report on $MSFT now up @DiligenceStack. Now all three CSP growth thesis reports are finalized. The durability of the cycle foundation set, so we can focus on tracking progress now :) Microsoft’s AI Capex Is Buying the Enterprise Agent...
AWS Lead Shrinks From 4x to 40% versus Azure
As of Q1 '18, AWS' TTM revenue base was ~4x larger than Azure's As of Q1 '26, AWS' TTM revenue base is ~40% larger than Azure's https://t.co/mP3UV901WY
Vireo’s Fluent Buy Crowns It #4 Global Cannabis Leader
With the purchase of Fluent, $VREOF is the #4 largest cannabis company in the world by revenue and has clear sights on being the largest. One of the most fascinating stories in cannabis is how Vireo keeps rolling up distressed...
Capex News Splits Big Tech: Alphabet Up, Meta Down
April 30, 2026. The market just split Big Tech in half. Alphabet +7% on a capex raise. Meta -9% on the same kind of news. Microsoft -5%. Amazon flat. Same headline, four different verdicts. That tells you something important —...
Targeting the Underserved Turned NetZero Into a Nasdaq Star
Back in 1999, I met Mark Goldston through Jennifer Fonstad. We became friends instantly. Mark saw something most people missed: America Online was only going after the high-end user. The low-end of internet access was completely ignored. He called it "Joe Sixpack." I called...
10-Year Yield Near Breakout, Markets Brace for Volatility
US 10-Year Yields are approaching a crucial breakout zone—are we heading toward the final leg higher? This could trigger volatility across equities and signal a major macro shift. 👉 Read the full analysis: https://t.co/O1bdBUqOoi https://t.co/tP9WV8oG6w
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Most people think the secret to building wealth is finding the right stock. It's not. It's starting before you feel ready. Buffett bought his first stock at 11. Not because he had it figured out — because he started. That $114 compounding...
Qualcomm Shares Surge 19% on AI‑focused Earnings Beat
.@Qualcomm stock is up 19% on earnings beat, and datacenter & AI expectations. Qualcomm CEO spoke to @jonfortt on CNBC moments ago. ‘Agent driven devices ‘ will need more CPU, says @cristianoamon, Qualcomm CEO. I will argue that we have...
Meta Shares Tumble 9% Amid 33% Revenue Surge
$META stock is down -9% despite growing revenues +33% y/y in the quarter We break down the quarter as well as Meta's big personalized AI bet in our new business update below 👇
Meta: High‑Quality AI Compounder at 20% Discount
Bought more $META today at 607 and 600. As much as I hate their vague answers and uncertainties around its AI spending and monetization, I cannot ignore the fact that Meta's core business is accelerating, it is one of the...
When Picks Run Dry, Dividend ETF Wins
I’m a stock picker, and that’s exactly why I respect $TDIV. When individual opportunities are scarce, a quality dividend ETF can be the smartest buy. $TDIV used to be too bank heavy for me. Now it owns many blue chip names I’d happily...
Amazon's Free Cash Flow Could Turn Negative Next Quarter
MyPOV - Next quarter KPI to stop for @Amazon - free cash flow. Amazon never generate the cash flow like its tech competitors due to the retail nature of the business. Will they go negative like @Oracle did / has?...
TTD Slowdown Misread; Fundamentals Remain Solid
$TTD slowdown is misunderstood - Dominant independent DSP for open internet ads - Growth slowed in '25, stock crushed - Amazon/AI fears overblown - Advertisers still need independent DSP platforms - No scaled comps ~$10B mkt cap, $1.3B net cash, ~$1B FCF Pitch by Saga Partners https://t.co/EyIxIZoKfB