TMDX Massively Undervalued; EPS Set to Compound 35%
$TMDX valuation is laughable at 4x NTM revs with OCS 2.0 trials, KidneyOCS (coming next year), and international expansion. If I’m right at $TMDX compounds EPS at 35% per year for the next 5 years… then this stock is going much, much higher.
AI Scares Investors, but SaaS Moats Still Offer Buying Chance
SaaS companies are being crushed due to the perceived loss of moat from AI threat. Personally I am staying away from them. However, if you have deeper understanding of some of them and know that their moat is not lost,...
Wealth Comes From Normalized Earnings, Not Quarterly Spikes
Most investors obsess over next quarter's earnings. The ones who actually build wealth ignore them entirely. Intrinsic value runs on normalized earnings, what the business earns in a normal year, not its best year. Peak profits are a trap dressed up as a...
S&P Equal‑Weighted Index Holds Trend, Forward P/E 18.2
Taking a longer look, we can see below that the S&P 500 equal-weighted index is right on its rising trendline, while the forward P/E ratio is at 18.2x. It’s hard to accuse the market of being over-extended, at least in...
Earnings Growth Drives Market Gains, Balancing Valuations
The forward earnings estimate has been growing at a robust 17% annual rate and the momentum has thus far not been affected by the headlines. This strength has beenenabling the cycle to become more balanced between valuation and earnings. As of...
Investors Bet Wrong AI Layer; Profits Flow Elsewhere
“The layer you’re investing in may not be where the profits end up.” On the latest @excessreturnpod, we sit down with GMO's Tom Hancock to discuss their excellent recent paper Hype vs. High Conviction. We cover: ☑️the 4-layer AI stack and where...
S&P 500 Swings 4‑5% Weekly, P/E At
The S&P 500 index has continued to fluctuate in an elevated range (4-5% per week), as markets try to find their footing amid the conflicting headlines. The trailing P/E ratio is now 23.3x and the implied equity risk premium is...
Meta's Muse Could Boost Stock by $1 Trillion
If Open AI and Anthropic is worth $800 billion, then Meta's new Muse models should add $1 trillion to $META stock, given its vastly superior distribution with 3.5 billion users.
AI Won’t Crush Software Firms; Incumbents Will Thrive
Claude isn't going to destroy all software businesses. Incumbents in infrastructure software and cybersecurity will benefit from AI. They have deep pockets, enterprise customer relationships and are too deeply integrated. The market appears to be getting too pessimistic.
AXON Appears Attractive at 350‑355 With 30% EPS Growth Potential
In my opinion, $AXON is starting to look attractive for the first time in a long time... down -60% from the highs... still a little too expensive however there's a decent chance this company will compound EPS at a 30%...
US ETF AUM Could Triple
Citi: US ETF AUM may reach $25T by 2030 from $10.4T. Drivers: active ETFs, innovation, easier regs. Risks: flow reversals, market stress. Trade: raise exposure to selective active ETFs. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Nike at $43: Buy Signal After Fire‑Sale
Full Deep Dive Thesis - Is #NKE a BUY now at $43? I have been receiving DMs. Nike’s stock has been hammered. The brand everyone thought was untouchable… now trading at fire-sale levels. Even Tim Cook just loaded up. So the question everyone’s asking:...
AI's Second Inning Promises Explosive Growth, Not a Bubble
Are we in an AI bubble? Andy Jassy gave his take in the $AMZN annual shareholder letter: “I’ve followed the public debate on whether this technology is over-hyped, whether we’re in ‘a bubble,’ and if the margins and ROIC will be...
When CEOs Spend Millions Buying Low, They Trust Their Stock
5 signs a CEO actually believes in their own stock: 1. Open market purchase not option exercise - they chose to buy with their own cash 2. Purchase size over $1M - real money not a gesture 3. Stock is near 52-week low...
AI Boosts $NOW Amid Wild Drawdown and Mispricing
$NOW drawdown is wild. AI will accelerate its business meaningfully. The SaaS repricing is real, but this one is now wildly mispriced and underestimated.
Omai Poised for G2‑scale Valuation After Deal Alignment
A deal that always made operational/synergistic sense finally had the numbers align Logical flow forward of funds here will be Omai $OMG.V If G2 goes for ~C$2.6 billion with <4 million ounces in resources, have to think Omai has clear line...
Elevated Oil Prices Trigger Lagging Earnings Downgrades
Oil price impacts are likely to start showing up in negative earnings revisions this month. History suggests elevated oil prices have a lagged impact on fundamental conditions, and as long as oil prices remain somewhat elevated, downward revisions may remain...
Points 5 and 6 Define Cycle Durability, Not
I liked the $AMZN shareholder letter. I take point 4 with a grain of salt (trn is largely AWS as a customer and Anthropic). Points 5 and 6 are most important for the "durability" of the cycle debate. https://t.co/X7zQDnJ6YM
Stocks and Bonds Both Riding Multi-Year Uptrend
oil up, or oil down, risk on, or risk off... one thing remains clear... stocks $SPX vs. bonds $TLT are in a multi-year uptrend... https://t.co/7V1yxCbBNO
Most Stocks Lose 85% and Half Never Recover
Michael Mauboussin on drawdowns "The median drawdown for the 6,500 stocks in our sample from 1985-2024 was 85 percent and took 2.5 years from peak to trough. More than one-half of all stocks never recover to their prior highs."
Phunware Holds $100M Cash on $38M Market Cap
Any idea what is going on with Phunware $PHUN? $100m net cash on a market cap of roughly $38m, a result of its comfi ATM usage last year. Over 80% of its total assets is just cash. No idea (yet) what...
Innate Pharma Poised for Breakthrough with Astra Phase III
Innate Pharma $IPH. €110m market cap, decent net cash position (runway for another few Qs), and several key drug programs reaching critical milestones. The most significant is a Phase III trial (monalizumab in lung cancer) run with Astra $AZN, with...
AI Fuels Next Cybersecurity Boom: 8 Stocks to Watch
From $244B to $699B: 8 Cybersecurity Stocks Positioned for the Next AI-Driven Security Cycle Growth holds at 12–14% CAGR, driven by expanding attack surfaces and rising digital complexity. Cybercrime is heading toward $10.5T annually, while AI accelerates both offense and defense....
Buy Stocks Like Groceries: Pay Price, Not Hype
Graham's grocery store rule is the most underrated idea in investing. Here's what it actually means: 1️⃣ Groceries have a price you compare. Perfume has a price you feel. 2️⃣ You never overpay for milk because it's "trending." Why do it with stocks? 3️⃣...
VOO Reclaims YTD #1 Spot After Massive Inflows
$VOO has been on a tear, +$8b in flows in past 5 days, now firmly back in the #1 spot YTD after $SPYM had shocked all by knocking it out of the top spot for a few days. I had...
Ford Admits $4.8B EV Loss, Refuses Unprofitable Spending
"Ford CEO Knew the EV Transition Would Hurt, But the Reality Is a $4.8B Loss — 'We Can't Allocate Money For Things That Will Not Make Money'" https://t.co/1UM2eCDJsV https://t.co/0UFTk3eamf
Buffett's Buyback Test: Cash Surplus, Undervalued Stock
Buffett's two conditions for buybacks: 1) The company has more cash than it needs for the business. 2) The stock is trading below intrinsic value, conservatively calculated. Simple test. Most companies fail the second one because management is almost always...
Quiet Conviction: Three Stocks With Strong Insider Accumulation
Hey @grok Analyze current insider buying and institutional accumulation patterns. Which three individual stocks or sectors show the strongest quiet conviction right now?
Plan Biotech Catalysts Ahead to Capture Stock Moves
Investors should know WHAT will move a stock and WHEN, especially in biotech with the outsized moves. Build your catalyst calendar ahead of time. You won't have time to thoughtfully analyze the data when it hits #learnbiotechinvesting #biotech #investing #BiotechPrometheus https://t.co/2RGMVrR2lG
Ask if Advisors View only Dow or Global Markets
When your advisor "looks" at markets for you, do they just look at the Dow in points or Global Equities?
Activist Push Highlights CHGG's Undervalued Split Potential
$CHGG looks like dead money… yet activism just entered the chat. Galloway disclosed a 5.5% stake, pushing to split Skilling and legacy Academic. Too cheap for a biz with a growth asset and a melting ice cube (Academic) that is still generating...
MEGP Lands Asda Deal; Lower P/E, Higher Yield
#MEGP won that Asda agreement for the Washing Machines. ShareScope has fwd p/e 9.1 falling to 8.2 and fwd Divvy 6.2% rising to 6.7%. Seems a low rating and decent payout. I don't hold.
Aging Boomers Push Pensions to Dump Stocks for Bonds
"As the population is aging, defined contribution pensions are increasing net sellers of equities as net purchases of financial assets slow ... the baby-boomer generation is at the cusp of swapping equities for debt (bills and notes, mostly)." -Steven Blitz, TS...
Dual‑Perspective Stock Analysis Prompt for Balanced Investing
Try this prompt to help you see two sides of every story: "Act as an institutional-grade equity analyst. Perform a deep-dive, adversarial analysis of [Insert Stock Name/Ticker] using the following structure: 1. The Bull Case The Moat: Define the specific competitive advantage (e.g.,...
Discipline Means Valuing Fundamentals Over Market Noise
Ben Graham didn't chase stocks flying up. He didn't panic-sell stocks falling down. While everyone else was reacting to price, he was focused on value. One never changed without reason. The other changed every second. Discipline isn't missing out. It's knowing the difference...
Water Scarcity Fuels Billionaire Investments and New Opportunities
Thoughts? We discuss the impending global water shortage, known as Day Zero, and explain why billionaires like Bill Gates and Richard Branson are quietly acquiring water and mineral rights. We break down the stark reality: while 71% of Earth's surface...
Focus on Top‑tier Assets for Lasting Outperformance
Most people spread their money across mid-tier assets Mr. Wonderful ($400M net worth) does the opposite He concentrates on the top tier The leaders attract the most demand, hold value the best and are the ones that actually outperform over time Applies to all...
Dividends Make SPY Outpace Gold, Real Estate
if you actually stuck with $SPY since 1990 and let those dividends do their thing you'd be up like 36x right now. it's wild how much better that is than just holding gold $GLD which is only up like 6x...
ARK Buys Tesla Third Consecutive Day, Remains Top Holding
ARK Third day in a row of ARK buying TSLA. Today for ARKQ, $11.3m. This morning the funds were holding - ARKK 9.72%, #1 position - ARKQ 9.38%, #1 position, now add the 0.62% from today - ARKW 8.75%, #1 position - ARKX 2.34%, #17 position https://t.co/beWpv4aNho
BlackRock Rewrites 60/40: Add Alternatives, Benchmark Cash
so blackrock is making a strong push that the new 60/40 is actually 60% stocks / 20% bonds / 20% alternatives. and how does blackrock want to benchmark it? 60% stocks / 20% bonds / 20% cash. convenient way to...
Margin of Safety Means Earnings, Low Debt, Not Price
Ben Graham didn't just want cheap stocks. He wanted cheap stocks that could survive being wrong. That's the part most value investors skip — two conditions, not one: earnings must cover the downside, and debt must stay low enough to survive it. Margin...
Direct Indexing Auto‑harvests Losses While Matching Market Returns
One of the best financial moves I've made recently was switching from investing in index funds to direct indexing Markets have been choppy, direct indexing has harvested a ton of losses for me on autopilot All while tracking the same performance as...
S&P's 6% Six-Day Rally Raises One-Year Return Odds to 81%
This is now a powerful "triple six" rally. The S&P rallied 6% in 6 days from a 6-month low. It failed in 2001 and was painful in 2008. But otherwise, excellent one-year returns. It bumped up the probability of a positive one-year return...
Correlation Hype Ignores that Alternatives Are Just More Equity
One of the dumber things you hear lately, from a lot of supposedly non-dumb people, is “stocks and bonds are now trading positively correlated so you now desperately need this other investment that’s way way more correlated with stocks than...
Buffett's AI Stock Rule: Moat First, Price Second
Which stocks should we buy amid the AI disruption? Buffett would do the following (the order is critical) 1. Does the company have an enduring moat so it will be around in 10 years? 2. Is the price reasonable? If a company...
2026 Market Forecast Jumps $200B, Extending ROIC Horizons
It is wild that about two months ago, consensus memory in dollars for 2026 was ~$600B and now people are saying north of $800B... Very challenging to square this with ROIC timelines now, as they will have to lengthen, and...
ADW Capital Presses CODI Liquidation, Targets $26 Share
$CODI is a collection of crown jewels trapped in a fee-mining structure. SOTP lands at ~$12/share vs. the stock at ~$9.6/share. If corporate overhead is eliminated, liquidation value could reach ~$26/share. That’s what ADW Capital is now pushing for: a full piecemeal liquidation. The...
Buffett Chooses Simple Clarity Over Complex Sophistication
Buffett understands hamburgers better than semiconductors. That's not a weakness. That's a strategy. Most investors chase complexity because it feels sophisticated. He chases clarity because it actually works. If you can't explain why the business makes money, you don't own an investment. You...
Samsung Predicts Profit Surge From AI-Driven Memory Price Boom
MyPOV: @Samsung forecasts insane operating profit growth thanks to surging memory prices https://t.co/TtaW3vxXCN @SiliconANGLE @Mike_Wheatley “Nobody could have foreseen the ferocity of AI’s memory appetite, but it’s still a great advertisement for…” - @holgermu @constellationr
Free Edition Highlights Apple, Anthropic,
Today's FREE Edition is out the door 🚪 628: Apple’s Air Traffic Controller Strategy, Anthropic's $30bn ARR + TPU Deal, Meta's Leaderboard, Berkshire Hathaway’s Mountain, Visa, Moody's & S&P Global, Max Life Expectancy, and Andy Weir https://t.co/p5cce4qVGU