Oracle Oversold: Potential Breakout Amid Excessive Selling
$ORCL was oversold and underestimated. This may or may not be a real breakout, but the selling was way overdone proportionally to its upside. 👏🏻
AI Boosts Enterprise Cyber Stocks; Selloff Offers Bargain
The best of breed cybersecurity and infrastructure software stocks have been punished by the market. AI is a tailwind for the high quality enterprise-grade vendors and the current selloff is a good opportunity.
Deal Undervalues Secure, Shareholders Lose Billions
If this deal goes through as written, it's an incredibly disappointing outcome for $SES.TO shareholders. Our base case was C$34/share using conservative assumptions. Instead, shareholders are being asked to sell a scarce, high-quality waste infrastructure asset for C$24.75/share, mostly in GFL...
Cloud Deployment Margins Rebound, Set to Rise Further
"The margin trajectory of cloud-based deployment segment is far more interesting. Notice how gross margin here was precipitously falling and even turned negative in 1H’25 when the Chinese labs were essentially on a death march to grab market share. However,...
Momentum Profits Aren't Just Factor Tilt Spillovers
Stock momentum has long been a workhorse idea. Buy recent winners. Sell recent losers. Critics argue those profits mostly come from riding factor trends like value, size, or industry tilts. This paper pushes back. by @ebasilico https://t.co/I9J0gdZM0F https://t.co/RzH2IV4fuP
Hawkeye360 IPO Preps with $117M Revenue, Massive Backlog
Satellite signals-intel provider @hawkeye360, preparing IPO on @NYSE, reports $117.7M in 2025 rev, $24.8M EBITDA and sharply lower operating loss. Revenue was 61% US government, 16% Japan, 23% rest of world. Backlog, at $302.7M, up 6.8x from 2024.https://t.co/E8IPZWf3pK https://t.co/QgmLlopOAW
Record-Breaking EPS Forecasts Extend Beyond US Tech
WEI LI BlackRock: EPS forecasts have never been better. And it's not just US tech https://t.co/3LAXLRQSID
S&P Valuations Near Historic Peaks; Quality Value Outshines
Where are we in the valuation cycle? * Current reading: ~+162% * That is above 3 standard deviations * Only comparable levels: late 1990s / 2021 peak * Base case (5–10 yrs): low single-digit real returns for the index * Bear case: major drawdown (-40–60%) *...
Global Small‑Cap Value Set to Outpace the S&P
Global small cap investor Mark Cooper on: * Why Global Small Cap Value Could Outperform the S&P by 25% Per Year * The Most Overvalued Stocks Since the Dot-Com Bubble? A Data-Driven Warning * Why Value Investing Still Works: The Case for Quality...
SaaS Valuations Hit Near Historic Lows.
Quality SaaS Stocks Are Trading near All-Time Low Multiples 👇 $NOW -58.6% from ATH Forward PE 20.4x Investing
Merger Odds Between Charter and Comcast Rise Significantly
"We think the odds of a Charter-Comcast merger are higher today than just a month ago," says New Street's Vikash Harlalka $CMCSA $CHTR https://t.co/MMBitMjhZw
Microsoft’s Enterprise Distribution Fuels Stickier Cross‑App Copilot
$MSFT moat is enterprise distribution. This is a potential example of how it gets stickier.
QCOM May Be Undervalued Gem Amid 24% Drop
"Nobody is giving this stock any credit whatsoever." $QCOM is down 24% YTD, trading at 13x earnings, with analysts barely above current price. Is this a hidden gem hiding in plain sight or a value trap? Dan & @GuyAdami go 'bottom-picking' on...
Long‑Only vs Market‑Neutral: Constraints Drive Alpha Gap
An interesting diversion in the performance of alpha in long-only managers vs market neutral managers. How much of it is talent versus a bunch of constraints (e.g. no shorting; need to sell down MAG7 to make room for active bets; harder...
Only 1 in 10 Active Funds Beat Benchmarks
Why I avoid a lot of actively managed funds. Over 15-20 years over 90% underperform their benchmark. In other words.... Only 1 in 10 are really worth your money.
Buy Great Businesses Only at Suitable Prices
Graham didn't say "buy great businesses." He said buy them at suitable prices. There's a word missing from most investor vocabularies. That word is "suitable."
Avalyn Pharma Outlines IPO Fund Allocation, IVVD, REPL Updates
13April: How does Avalyn Pharma plan to spend the proceeds of the IPO for which it has filed paperwork? Read what's been made public about the company's planned initial public offering, plus updates on $IVVD and $REPL in my latest...
Wise's Dual-Listing Boosts Value After Flat Share Price
Given that the dual-listing of $WISE may be completed within a month, the blockbuster quarter the company just posted may come in particularly handy. Wise IPO'd at GBP8/share, but shares quickly ran up, and basically, the stock is (almost) flat...
MRX Thrives in Chaos, Poised for Multibagger Upside
War, volatility, chaos - $MRX's earnings love all of it. - Financial infra firm dressed up as a brokerage - Counter-cyclical by design - 30%+ earnings growth expected - Trades at 8-9x P/E vs. 13-14x for peers - Multibagger upside if the re-rate happens Pitch by...
EKF Acquires Real‑Time Glucose Tracker, P/E Declines
#EKF buying "Real-time glucose and lactate tracking for sports performance monitoring" from Beep Insights AB. ShareScope has fwd p/e 15.1 falling to 13.4 but no Dividend. Worth investigating. I don't hold.
JNEO Lands £1.7m Order; Still Fairly Valued
#JNEO won £1.7m of Purchase Orders for passenger displays "for a large local authority in the south of England". ShareScope has Fwd p/e 12.9; strip out cash and it's still a pretty reasonable rating. I don't hold.
Embrace Volatility: Buy Low, Retire Rich
Do you plan to sell all your investments and retire this year? If not, you should actually want prices to go down in the short term so you can buy more at lower levels. I know I do. For example, if I’m retiring...
SP Group Urges Tata Sons Listing for Valuation, Liquidity
The Strategic Push: The SP Group (which holds an ~18.4% stake in Tata Sons) is advocating for transparency and governance, but more importantly, a listing would provide a clear valuation and a liquidity event for their massive holding.
CHH Shows Strong Results, Yet Key Line Misphrased
#CHH results as robust as their crockery…but one line stood out as both critical to the investment case…and mysteriously badly worded https://t.co/BtL3NbzipO
Focus on Big Winners, Not Just Avoiding Mistakes
Most investors obsess over not making mistakes. Peter Lynch obsessed over making sure the winners were big enough to cover them. That's the whole game.
Japan’s Pre‑deal Hype Misleads; Fundamentals
I'm always interested in these pre event M&A trades in Japan where some legit media outlet publishes about M&A... and then months pass with silence and the speculators are forced to unwind... in Japan sometimes the passage of time does...
Globalization, Not Valuation, Drives Index Decline; Seek New NABOTS
One thing most misunderstand about “https://t.co/OjEtVHRmkY” is that the problem for the index was not valuation, but globalization. Asian hardware producers killed to US hardwareproducers in the zeroes. So “PE-analysts” has ever since missed the train because of misunderstood fear of...
ServiceNow’s Cheap Valuation Hints at $67 Target
Hard to ignore $NOW if it goes to 67 which was 2022 bear market lows 🤔 Service Now has strong growth, solid margins & a cheap valuation of P/OCF of 15.95 below 5-Year Avg of 42.63
Tech Valuations Halve, AI Bubble Shrinks to Pre‑hype Levels
Tech valuations in the US have declined from 40x to 20x. That's back to levels before the AI hype. AI BUBBLE = NOT NEARLY AS BIG AS IT USED TO BE. https://t.co/2ApBKLgFiI
Core Short Ideas Held Over 30 Days
INVESTING IDEAS (longer-term research product) Looking for Core Short Ideas tomorrow? We've held these for 30 days or more https://t.co/LF9BBqVzXP
Safety Lies in Capital Structure, Not Just Stock Price
A bad year tests a business. High leverage ends one. Earnings recover. Dilution doesn't. Bankruptcy doesn't. The equity you owned before the rescue round doesn't. Margin of safety isn't just about price. It's about capital structure.
Lowest‑P/E Stocks Explode: Micron Up 520% Year‑to‑Date
The cheapest stock in America is up 520% in a year. The 10 lowest-P/E stocks are up 70% YoY. Micron has the lowest P/E in the S&P 500 at just 4.4x. Disclosure: long $MU https://t.co/W2gEcOm2By
New Global Opportunity Index Ranks Countries by Long‑Term Returns
the Clocktower Global Opportunity Index is live 🔥 we built an index to show our selection criteria for long-run investment return potential across the world. view all countries and adjust our factor weightings here: https://t.co/Ltmo4wt0Gk https://t.co/onOARPsiBm
Big Tech Valuations Hit Multi-Year Lows
$NVDA 17.00x out-year EPS $MSFT P/E ratio now below 20 $META well below the market at 18.3x @finviz_com https://t.co/1sFShbTxQX
Aperam Earnings Drop Amid Weak European Stainless Prices
Aperam earnings fell as weak European stainless prices offset stable shipments and cost savings. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/aperam-stainless-steel-earnings-fall-as.html
SaaS Growth Leaders Surge Amid Low Valuations
Anthropic’s new Mythos model hit SaaS hard. With valuations now near cycle lows, it may be a good time to look at the names where analysts still expect the strongest NTM revenue growth. Top 10 fastest-growing SaaS names based on NTM estimates: $PLTR...
Tech Firms' Record Margins Fuel Unstoppable Growth
“Tech stocks are in a bubble.” I disagree. Tech companies today are far more efficient than ever. Companies like NVIDIA are keeping ~$0.50 in profit for every $1 in revenue. That was unheard of decades ago. High margins allow companies to easily: - Outspend competitors - Acquire...
Focus, Not Timing: Concentrate on Few, Win Big
Buffett doesn't time the market. He times his attention. The best capital allocators I've studied don't work harder — they work on fewer things, longer. Concentration isn't just a portfolio strategy. It's a life strategy.
Goldman's 7,600 S&P Target Now Seems Achievable
That Goldman 7600 S&P 500 year-end target looks more doable now vs a couple weeks ago https://t.co/ylS7dFh44o
SUTL Enterprise Trades Cheap, Cash‑rich After Keppel
SUTL Enterprise (SUTL SP): The market leader in Singapore's luxury marina industry. Trades at 7.1x 2028e with a solid cash pile once the acquisition of Marina at Keppel Bay goes through. https://t.co/phzy16ip8T
Focus on a Few Long‑term Holdings, One Idea Yearly
Joel Greenblatt on portfolio management "We hold 5 to 8 securities for a year to 2-5 years. We may only need to find one idea a year."
Tesla's Business Grows Even When Stock Dips
On green days and red days alike, the value of Tesla’s business is increasing. For example, this week the stock was red almost every day. But the value of the business as FSD expanded to the EU went up immensely. As a...
Buy When Pessimism Drives Prices Below Liquidation Value
Ben Graham waited for bad news. That's not a typo, it's the whole strategy. A true bargain only exists when pessimism has priced the business below what its parts are worth in a liquidation. No pessimism = no bargain. The crowd hates the...
High EPS Growth, Low Multiples Signal Undervaluation
Was updating some spreadsheets last night… using the conservative sell side estimates… $APP $RDDT $CRDO are expected to grow EPS this year by an average of 56% yet at the start of April they were trading at an average of...
SMH ETF Delivers 209% Return Over Five Years
If you want exposure to semis but don’t want to pick individual stocks, SMH is worth a look. It’s one of the best-performing ETFs, up 209% over the past 5 years.
Florida Canyon Mine's Life Extends Far Beyond Expectations
@IntegraResource's Florida Canyon Mine will have a far longer mine life than people would expect. CEO @GeorgeSalamis spoke to Mining Stock Daily this week. https://t.co/S9UIFtIp9f $ITR https://t.co/uEaPdW8dj2
Ajinomoto: Undervalued Monopoly Powering AI Chip Infrastructure
In February, activist fund Palliser Capital took a stake in Japanese toilet maker Toto and pushed it to expand a ceramics line used in semiconductors. Palliser is back. Says Japanese MSG maker Ajinomoto is “most undermonetized AI infrastructure monopoly” because: ▫️in...
Ignore Debt Seniority, Destroy Acquisition Value
Buffett's hierarchy before making any acquisition: 1️⃣ Can the business pay its own way? 2️⃣ If we borrow, who now sits above the shareholder? 3️⃣ Is the upside worth that demotion? Most acquirers never ask #2. That's why most acquisitions destroy value.
Scorecard Analysis of NBIS and CRWV
Scorecards for $NBIS and $CRWV Subscribe my substack for more deep dive insights and analysis
TSMC's Customer Base to Quadruple High‑Revenue Clients by 2027
Doing some customer modeling on TSMC and this stat stands out: In 2023, TSMC had one customer (Apple) above $10 billion in annual revenue. By 2027E, it is projected to have four, including Apple, all above $20 billion.