ESS Shifts to Long‑Duration Energy, Small 202
Macro: ESS pivots to long-duration Energy Base; rev -79% on ramp. Key: cost cuts, SRP/Google & DoD contracts, better adj EBITDA. Risks: runway, execution. Trade: small buy into 2027 catalyst. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
RMR Stable, Fees Resilient—Buy Dips for FY27 Growth
RMR: operationally stable; fee‑earning AUM resilient despite incentive‑fee timing. Adjusted EBITDA steady; 72% payout coverage. Risk: fee timing/REIT sales. Trade: buy dips into FY27 fees 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Negative Fed Model Forecasts Market Boom, Then Bust
Understanding the Fed model went negative by over 300 basis points in the 90's before the market doubled followed by everyone losing everything https://t.co/JKFm1T5RcL
Meta's AI Spend Isn’t Pure Speculation, Says Analyst
Wrote up Meta's Q1. The market is treating all of the AI capex as one big speculative bet. Most of it isn't, and I think that's where the disconnect is. https://www.steadycompounding.com/investing/meta-q1-2026/
Omada Health Hits 1M Members, Boosts Revenue 42%
@OmadaHealth just reported a milestone Q1 2026 💪 Very proud of the team for: 💡 1M+ Total Members, a first in our history 💡 Revenue +42% YoY to $78M 💡 GAAP net loss narrowed to $3M; positive Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) in our highest-cost quarter 💡...
Low P/B Doesn't
A low P/B stock isn't cheap. It's priced low. There's a difference. Book value is only as honest as the assets behind it. Write down the bad loans, the obsolete inventory, the goodwill someone overpaid for, and that "bargain" starts looking...
Great Thesis Beats Diversification: Concentrate Your Bets
Stan Druckenmiller on diversification "Diversification is really overrated. If you've really got a great thesis, and you've analyzed the risk reward, put all your eggs in a couple baskets, or in one basket, and then watch the basket very closely."
Value Investing Survives Buffett; Nasdaq Set to Drop
I believe we see a headline this year or next: “Reports of Buffett’s death were NOT greatly exaggerated. But reports of the death of VALUE investing were.” I foresee Nasdaq + Mag7/10 📉 10-15% while a resurgent or new stock picker value...
Canceling Buybacks Shifts Money From Share Demand to Real‑Economy Investment
I'm told focusing on the shift from share repurchase to capex is a "dumb argument" 101 It most certainly appears dumb if you don't understand the implication. Google cancelled its share repurchase from 60BN per year to zero to...
Shell Profit Beats Forecasts, Dividend up 5%
JUST IN: Shell's profit of $6.9 billion exceeded expectations, and it raised its dividend by 5%.
DraftKings Keeps FY2026 Revenue and EBITDA Guidance
DraftKings maintains fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance range of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion and fiscal year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $700 million to $900 million, per Q1 earnings release
Consider RDDT as a Long‑term AI Data Leader Despite Volatility
If you’re ignoring this data pivot, you might regret it later. Day 74 of Finding High-Growth High-Conviction Stocks Is $RDDT the AI data leader you should own long term? Here’s why I’m looking at a Speculative Buy even with all the current volatility...
Lithia Motors' Real Profit Driver: High‑Margin Services, Not New Cars
Day 21 of 30: How $LAD Lithia Motors actually makes money Most people think it's just a traditional car dealership selling new vehicles off a lot. But new car sales are actually their lowest-margin business. Here's the real breakdown of their $9.27B in...
AI Spending Pulls $2T Industrial Equity Into Tech Cycle
"Fifteen non-tech S&P 500 companies, collectively worth roughly $2.0 trillion in market cap, now move with semis at a daily-return correlation of 0.50 or higher. ... The implication is straightforward. If the AI cycle ever cools off, the wealth-effect drag...
Strong Fundamentals, yet $APP Down 26% YTD
How is $APP down 26% YTD? - 77% EBIT Margin - 117% ROIC - 34% 2028 EPS CAGR - Reasonable Valuation - 28% Below Consensus Price Target
AI Progress, Not Cash Flow, Drives Hyperscaler Value
The bears pointing to fall in hyperscaler free cash flow is a "dumb argument." "All that means is CapEx is high. - @WarrenPies The real "north star for this market": "is AI still improving," not 1's CapEx is 2's OpEx "Compute Demand...
Investing Success Requires Professional Effort, Not Just Luck
I have a friend with a $50M stock portfolio. I’m jealous of him. We’ve had roughly the same time horizon. He put his energy into picking stocks, I put mine into AppSumo and indexing on the side. His returns have absolutely...
New Chart Reveals Unsettling Dotcom Comparison Trends
All Dotcom comparisons have been like water off a duck's back to me... BUT... I just made this chart and it is moderately concerning https://t.co/xE9KahOmNa
Peloton's Subscriptions Surge 33% CAGR to $1.6B
Over the past six years (Q3 FY20 - Q3 FY26), Peloton's TTM subscription revenues have increased from $304 million to $1,647 million (~33% CAGR) https://t.co/6eNOMmyfus
Albemarle’s 2026 Forecast Shows Unusually Wide Ranges
Congrats to @AlbemarleCorp on a rising tide lifting their boat. Hard to believe they still have such large ranges on their forecast especially 2026, a year that is more than ⅓ over. $ALB. They should have the most insight on...
Goldman Sachs Says Amazon, Alphabet Inflate S&P Earnings
Goldman Sachs flags Amazon and Alphabet for inflating S&P 500 earnings growth figures $AMZN $GOOGL https://t.co/49fg3hccI3
Masa's Arm Stake Yields $172B Gain, Eclipsing
Masa took Arm private for $32B in 2016. Went pubic again in 2024 and market cap is now $234B. He owns 87%, which is around $204B. So, Masa is now up $172B on Arm, which is more than 10x the amount...
Arm Shares Fall Despite Strong AI CPU Demand
MyPOV: @Arm’s stock sinks even as it reveals strong interest in its CPUs for #AI servers https://t.co/UPSBFc3WSA @SiliconANGLE @Mike_Wheatley “More than four out of five of Arm’s employees are engineers, and so investors may rightly have questions about...” - @holgermu @constellationr #AIWars
Qualcomm Poised to Become the Next AMD
Qualcomm $QCOM warrants a serious look given its growth potential and valuation. It could be the next AMD. The next chapter of the company has started, transitioning from a mobile chip vendor to a diversified chip provider, especially the potential...
Consumer Staples Hit Lowest S&P Relative Level Since January
Historically, Consumer Staples underperforming has been a classic characteristic of healthy market environments. Yesterday, Staples closed at their lowest relative levels vs the S&P 500 since January. https://t.co/oWy6ZLfvmt
Whirlpool Blames Confidence, Raises Prices Amid Idiosyncratic Miss
Whirlpool said weak consumer confidence tanked sales of appliances. And it's raising prices. Something doesn't compute. Earnings misses can be idiosyncratic or macroeconomic. Whirlpool's look idiosyncratic; most cos. say consumer spending is fine). https://t.co/Q0EM6ALeA3
McDonald's Confident in Expansion Amid Tough Market
"We have a tremendous amount of financial firepower in our system." McDonald's Chris K saying that the company has "no concerns" about its ability to open restaurants, etc., despite a tough environment. $MCD
Expensive Market Justified—Only Margin or Rate Shocks Matter
Oftentimes “nice” things are expensive. Today’s fundamental and macro backdrop currently warrants an expensive market. But expensive doesn’t necessarily mean overvalued. A sustained drop in margins or spike in rates would warrant a less expensive market. https://t.co/txKEb7klr2
Long‑term Investing Beats Short‑term Panic Cycles
Every year, there’s a new reason to panic: -Rates Hikes -Elections -Wars -Tweets -Tariffs -Pandemics -Recessions But in 30 years, none of it will matter. What will: whether you stayed invested - or got shaken out. https://t.co/Vk3D1YcKy3
Datadog's Beat Sparks Surge in Undervalued
"Software is dead" - really? $DDOG beats estimates + raises FY revenue guidance Stock +23% pre-market Infrastructure software + cybersecurity stocks on the bargain table and few understand this https://t.co/9W3aDdLK3Q
INSM Q1 Sales Beat Consensus, Miss Whisper Target
$INSM Q1 Brinsupri sales $208 million, above sell-side consensus but below the buyside "whisper" expectation that has moved around from the $2-teens to $220-ish.
RXO Gains Spot Market Share, Poised for Earnings Breakout
RXO earnings are out. Lots of momentum, setting up for a much stronger year, increasing outlook. Driven by increased spot activity, which is very different than what DAT is reporting on spot load posting volumes. It suggests that RXO is...
Decades Mask Returns when Valuation Spreads Shift
I don’t explicitly do small cap value here (but rather value in general) but even “decades” can obscure true expected returns (for value, for the market, for anything) if there are big changes in valuation (not value, but the value...
Geopolitics May Drive Elevra’s Full‑Control Bid
Does geopolitics trump valuation? In a world of FORGE, US-Australia critical minerals alliances and Congressional hearings on Chinese market behavior, will be interesting to see how this unfolds. Key question is what does Elevra do? Stay in a JV with Huayou and...
JNEO Lands $1.2M MBTA Order, yet Remains Undervalued
#JNEO won a $1.2m Purchase Order for the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority in Boston. ShareScope only showing fwd p/e 12.7; strip out cash and it's quite a low rating. I don't hold.
Shell Prioritizes Higher Dividends Over Buybacks
Interesting #SHEL has changed emphasis regarding Shareholder Returns with more Dividend and a bit less Buyback. Makes sense after the decent Share Price rises. ShareScope showing fwd Dividend Yield 3.4% rising to 3.6% (and Buybacks on top).
BA's Val
#BA. Good start to 2026 and reiterates Guidance. ShareScope has fwd p/e 25.2 falling to 22.2 and fwd Divvy 1.9% rising to 2.1% (plus a tiny Buyback); not 'cheap' but Defence is obviously a warm area.
Tom Lee Predicts S&P 7700, AI Stocks Still Rising
Tom Lee just said that US AI stocks still have upside and predicts the S&P 500 to reach 7,700 by the end of the year. https://t.co/41lml2i3GX
Lithium Surge Drives AMG Revenue, yet EBITDA Lags
Macro: lithium surge boosts AMG revenue; EBITDA down vs strong comps. Drivers: Bitterfeld ramp, vanadium margins, inventory writedown reversal. Risks: leverage, working-capital. Trade: buy dips.— Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
NVDA's Next Report Needs 2027 Growth Assurance
T-minus 10 trading days until $NVDA reports (May 20). For shares to move higher, Jensen needs to make investors comfortable with 2027 growth.
EM Funds Shift to China, India, Taiwan Semis, Fintech
EM funds are pivoting hard: Nomura boosted China & India holdings while cutting Mexico & Brazil due to tariff jitters. Top bets? Taiwan semis and Indian fintech. Defensive growth is the play. Market's a mess, but they're playing it smart....
Public Bank Leads Malaysian Banking Rally, Earnings Outlook Strong
Malaysian banks up today. Seeing plenty of buying interest. Financial Service index highest since end-March. All banks still below pre-War level (except AM). Best performer is Public Bank +3% to RM4.94, highest in almost 2 months. •1Q earnings release on 12...
From Chemicals to AI Health SaaS: Multibagger Blueprint
AVI Polymers 539288 just did what most penny stocks only talk about. They launched Ashwini Healthcare AI and already have 5,620+ registered users. Priced at ₹999/year. That's not a one-time sale, that's SaaS ARR. Management guidance: → 600-900 paying users = ₹6-9L ARR Year...
Rebalance Concentrated Position by Adding All‑Weather
Doing some portfolio rebalancing today. The Trade Long Term strategy ran hard recently and one position grew to 28% of the account — too concentrated for a multi-strategy book. Where to redeploy? This entity has zero exposure to All-Weather, which has...
China‑India Shifts Spark Cautious Optimism in EM
Lazard's latest EM commentary is out. Q1 2026 saw key shifts in China and India driving performance. Vibe check: cautious optimism on quality equities. Worth a read for retirement strategy insights. 📉📈 EmergingMarkets
Smart Money Enters Early, Retail Late—Timing Drives Losses
Most people don’t lose money because markets are bad. They lose money because they enter too late. This chart explains why. The blue curve represents smart capital. The red curve represents retail emotion. First, understand the axes: X-axis = Market cycle stage Y-axis = Participation /...
Liquidity Over Stock Picking: Patience Wins in Crises
Seth Klarman sat on billions in cash for years while the market laughed at him. Then 2008 arrived. He didn't scramble for liquidity. He had it. The best investors don't just pick stocks. They manage the conditions under which they're allowed to...
Volkswagen Reclaims China Lead as EV Demand Wanes
Narrative violation: Volkswagen becomes the #1 car maker in China again, as consumers move away from EVs https://t.co/AzvEY1nG1k https://t.co/8tXJvIvGa4
S&P Earnings Set to Outpace 2000 Bubble as Valuations Drop
Analysts now expect S&P 500 earnings to grow faster than during the 2000 tech bubble. The market's valuation multiple is falling. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/QDz5MTvDhR
Nintendo Valued at ¥12k Amid DRAM & Holiday Risks
Nintendo’s starting to get interesting. I’ve valued the stock at around JPY 12,000. Though you will have to look through the current DRAM issues, and a potentially weak holiday season in 2026 as the 3D Mario game appears to have...