Diversifiers Shine as Equities and Bonds Re‑correlate
With equities and bonds positively correlated again (a déjà vu to 2022), it’s good to see that the group of diversifiers that I have in my hypothetical 60/20/20 model have been doing their job. The chart below shows the “crawling” 50-day correlation of equity-like assets (near the top), bond-like assets (to the right), and diversifiers against both of them (in the yellow oval). Diversifiers can act as the places to hide when neither equities nor bonds are well behaved. Gold is now trading back in line against global money supply growth. Bitcoin continued to hold support at $65k.
Small and Mid‑Cap Yields Surpass Large Caps
Asset location implications: Dividend yields are now higher in small and mid caps vs. large caps https://t.co/UPCV1LiXSB
Thorndike's Power Ratio Reveals Tiny Firms' Extreme Multiples
I like Thorndike's Power Ratio: TTM revenue growth rate divided by EV/EBITDA Multiple. PE has averaged 0.75x. Search funds 2-3x. You can get some wildly high numbers in small public companies. What's the highest you've seen?
Liquidity Surge Signals Tech and Crypto Rally Ahead
The Everything Code suggests that over time the NDX has a 97% correlation with GMI Total Global Liquidity. Total Liquidity is at all time highs. NDX is following. We have been long tech stocks in GMI (and RV Pro) since Dec 2022...
Starlink Drives 75%‑80% of SpaceX’s $1.75T Value
Here's what most people miss about SpaceX: 75–80% of its value isn't rockets. It's Starlink. The satellite internet business that nobody believed in is now the backbone of a $1.75 trillion company.
Equities Rally on Hope, Valuations Still Under Pressure
Equity markets gapped higher last week on hopes that the negotiations in Pakistan would lead to some sort of détente. The week closed with an S&P 500 index at 6816, a mere 2.6% below its all-time high set on January...
Amid Volatile Headlines, Revisit Your Investment Thesis
It’s getting increasingly challenging to write my WAAR these past few Sundays, given how much the headlines keep lurching back and forth. Truce one day, threats of extinction the next, and back and forth we go. My inclination these days is to...
Luxury Giants Face Structural Demand Reset
Hermes $RMS just cratered 13% at one point of today's trading session. Kering is struggling to find its footing. LVMH is struggling too. The luxury "black hole" is officially here. We aren't just seeing a soft quarter here and there;...
Aztec Minerals Strikes 2,676 G/T Silver, Still Undervalued
A juicy 2,676 gram-meter #silver hit for @AztecMinerals in another step-out hole at Tombstone, the footprint continuing to grow. As JV says from the tour last week, consensus from every analyst was “this stock is deeply undervalued." Buy window still...
Quality Small Caps Win Long-Term, Junk Rallies Occasionally
We're in a late-cycle regime where quality still dominates—but with intermittent speculative rallies. Chart shows ratio of $IWM (Russell 2000, broader, lower-quality small caps) v $VIOO (S&P 600, higher-quality, profitable small caps). → When it falls, quality small caps outperform junky small...
OKLO’s Pipeline and Cash Boost Hope Despite Execution Risk
Someone on Reddit asked "is there any hope for $OKLO ?" It's up 9% today Quick fundamental check: - 14 GW signed customer pipeline (Switch, Meta, Equinix) - $1.23B cash with minimal debt - Board just got overhauled with nuclear/energy veterans - Pre-revenue but funded through...
Check Your Portfolio Against Your Sleeping Point
How often do you inventory your investments to get a good idea of how invested you are, in what, your net, exposure to specific risks etc? I did this last week & found I was a bit more invested than my...
Bank of America Shines in Higher‑for‑longer Rate Environment
Thinking of playing higher-for-longer rates? Analysis says Bank of America ($BAC) could be a top pick due to its unique sensitivity. Strong deposit base & digital edge are key. Investing
Pershing Square Admits Nike Turnaround Far Tougher than Anticipated
Pershing Square: "With Nike, we did not understand how much the prior CEO had really damaged the business, and how heavy the turnaround was going to be." https://t.co/YaLEkVXfp1
SE Outpaces TikTok, Valued at 7x 2028 EBITDA
$SE -45% on TikTok + margin fears looks overdone - TikTok growth is slowing and expanding the mkt more than taking share, while SE still leads in scale - Pricing is rational and reinvestment is offensive, not defensive - ~7x ’28 EBITDA with...
FDA Peptide Meeting Signals $100B Market Boom
I wish this FDA meeting to discuss peptides was happening a little sooner but I'm glad it's finally on the calendar so we don't have to keep guessing. Looks like they're going to start with 7 peptides (BPC-157, TB-500, KPV, Mots-C,...
Active Stock Pickers Underperform When Deviating From Benchmarks
Man, this is some tough findings for active mgmt: basically the more stock pickers tried to differentiate from the benchmark the worse they lagged. Passive flows are part of the story but also the dramatic shifts in sector/size leadership too....
Mike Mayo Predicts Citi's Restructuring Will Boost Stock
JUST IN: Mike Mayo holds Citi as his top stock pick, expecting its restructuring to lift the share price.
TSM Boosts 2026 Outlook to More Bullish
With $TSM tonight, what I wrote in January on 2026 outlook is a good primer. May even be more bullish of a year than we anticiapted even two montsh ago. https://t.co/C0GIvgrEll
Pagaya's AI Lending Grows; Bull Case Still Viable
Pagaya stock has been crushed, but the bull case isn't dead. Their AI lending network is still scaling with big partners. The goal? Reach profitability as macro headwinds ease. High-risk, high-reward bet. Fintech
Canada’s EWC Outperforms U.S. Indices Amid Market Rise
as you look at the U.S. stock market rising, don't forget those relative trends, which favour Canada $EWC, no matter U.S. equal weight $RSP or cap-weighted $SPX https://t.co/50q7XPZYxo
Free Monthly Insights on Secular Business Trends
Check out our Insights page below 👇 Our FREE research on secular business trends and hot investment themes - new article updated every month. https://t.co/PSMrtXXOGR
Unlock Malaysia Banking Secrets & RM1M Blueprint
Join us on 9 May for an exclusive investing deep-dive, in collab with Shinji Ong of The Futurizts @thefuturizts What’s on the Agenda: •Malaysia Banking sector: Mastering fundamentals, key metrics, & reliable passive income strategies—by me, Azha •The RM1 mil Blueprint: Shinji’s personal...
Shopify’s Full‑Stack Merchant Moat Fuels Double‑Digit Margins
Founder-led software names with strong economic moats to watch 👇 $SHOP | Forward P/S 10.46x Shopify is monetizing the full merchant stack. Not just storefronts. Payments, credit, cross-border, logistics. Merchant solutions now drive ~75% of revenue. Take rate expands with every transaction layer...
Greenland Resources Valued at $2.5‑3B
At the current Molybdenum prices, Greenland Resources' $MOLY NPV sits around here (~$2.5-3.0bn) 👇 Market cap of $170m. https://t.co/q78aNaCpRO
Public Companies Now Outlast Since 1970s
"The longevity of public companies is the longest it has been since the 1970s." -Michael Mauboussin, Morgan Stanley
Flat SPY Decade: Overconfidence After 20% Gains
Let’s see what people think if $SPY is flat for a decade Easy to think it is easy option after 3 years of 20% gains
AllogeneTx Stock Plummets After $2 Share Offering
I saw that a lot of people on 𝕏 are surprised by the sharp decline in $ALLO stock price - from $4.3 to $2.2 in one day despite the company’s excellent cema-cel readout 🧵👇. The reason for this decline is...
XPEL Poised for 100%+ Upside After Earnings Inflection
Multibagger pitch on $XPEL from @AltaFoxCapital - High quality share gainer in a secularly growing mkt - 3 years of heavy investment → earnings inflection ahead - EBIT margins set to 2x by FY28 - 100% upside on conservative EPS forecast - 250% if...
HFEL Offers 9.5% Yield, Yet High Risk
#HFEL update looks interesting. I note Dividend Yield last year was 9.5% on current share price. Invests in Asia incl China a bit. Full list of holdings in the report today. Perhaps it would work in Income Portfolio but quite...
Start Early, Hold Long, Let Compounding Grow Wealth
Great investment advice in one page. Start early. Hold long. Let compounding do the work.
Gold Miners Lead Early Bull Cycle Awareness Phase
Gold miners are leading the market once again. Since January 2025, their performance has far outpaced every other sector. This could mark one of the most important comebacks in mining history. So where are we in the bull cycle? I would argue we are...
AI Hardware Fuels Asian Market Outperformance Despite Iran War
Which is a bigger impact on financial markets and companies' earnings: AI or Iran War? Well, the Kospi and Taiwan are still best in Asia and also world in equity performance. Why? They are the hardware of AI, as in chip...
Low‑Volatility Index Underperforms 17 Years, Cycle Uncertain
The S&P 500 Low Volatility Index's underperformance commenced 17 years ago. Let me say it again: seventeen years ago. The previous cycles were 9 years one way, then 10 years the other way. How long this factor can remain washed...
Vertiv's $15B Backlog Highlights Underpriced AI Cooling Play
Vertiv's $15B backlog proves AI's hunger for power & cooling. They're the liquid cooling leader—a critical "picks & shovels" play for data centers that Wall Street might still be underpricing. AI
Estimating How Many Years of Value Stocks Price In
New Mauboussin paper just dropped. The question it tackles: when you buy a stock, how many years of value creation is the market pricing in, and how would you even measure that? https://www.morganstanley.com/content/dam/im/assets/publication/thought-leadership/consilient-observer/article_theneglectedvaluedriver_ltr.pdf?1776183428400
Markets Shift From Fear to Fundamentals, Target Energy, Banks
Market is repricing from extreme fear back to fundamentals. What’s happening? •Unwinding of geopolitical risk built during initial escalation of war. •Talks continuing, probability of extreme outcomes declining—for now. •Stocks rebounding, USD softening, oil down from elevated levels, gold resilient. Opportunities...
Meta Poised as 2026’s Top Growth Stock
$META was a @FuturumEquities best idea for 2026. I still believe this will print. 🚀
Mondelez Beats Kraft Heinz with Snack‑Centric Growth
Kraft Heinz & Mondelez split in 2012, but their paths have totally diverged. The analysis favors Mondelez for its global snacking focus, strong growth, and clean balance sheet. A tale of two strategies. Investing
Buy Fundamentals, Not Predictions, During Market Dips
I never make short term price predictions I don’t make claims about tops and bottoms No one knows that for sure But… I keep investing in fundamentally sound companies and especially when they have drawdowns
Stress‑test Your Model Before Investing, Not Just During Booms
Mr. Market is generous in expansions and brutal in recessions. Your valuation assumptions should already know that. If your model only survives the good times, it isn't a model — it's a mood. Stress test first. Invest second.
Six Bullish Triggers That Could Defy My Bearish Stance
I just went max bearish equities. However plenty of bull cases exist. The six big things that can make me wrong 1) Collapse of long term oil prices back to the low's 2) The passage of a highly stimulative fiscal...
Low‑risk Portfolio Gains ~9.5% YTD with DS Strategies
100% Allocated DS GlobalBeta up 7%YTD. I've been 80% invested basically. Up 5.6%. DSAlpha which buys/sells options using my AUM as a resource has PNL of 3.9% of AUM YTD. Yes you can add them. Total is...
Kering Q1 Stabilizes; Buy Dips at €260
Macro: Kering Q1 stabilized; Jewelry & Eyewear offset Gucci. Key: N.A. strength, FX/disposals. Risks: geopolitics, Gucci lag, rich valuation. Trade: buy dips to €260 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
True Diversification Means Minimizing Overlap, Not Counting Holdings
I respect what they have built over the years, but the portfolio construction always struck me as inferior, with too many overlapping bets. Diversification is achieved through minimizing overlap, not owning a certain number of things.
President's Sixth Year Boosts Markets, Best Since 1950s
We all know about how midterm years aren't that great for investors, but did you know that year six of a President's term is actually quite strong? Never lower going back to the 1950s. https://t.co/jxw9n7h2QT
Equity Valuations at Historic Peaks Threaten Credit Risk
Equity valuations are stretched to levels only seen twice before. When stocks are priced for perfection, the risk to credit is massive. $JOJO offers a different path. https://t.co/PwdBLqJYUe
DJIA/Russell 2000 Ratio Hits Lowest Since July 2024
Something of a contrast to the 'concentration' perspective, the ratio of the DJIA to the Russell 2000 has actually extended its drop to its lowest point since July 2024. This shift suggests there is a diversification in risk appetite - but...
Buy Northwestern on Dips Despite Stretched Valuation
Macro: NorthWestern hits 52‑wk high on strong EPS, revenue beat and 26% 12m total return. Key: 21-yr dividend streak, Black Hills merger. Risk: stretched valuation. Insight: buy on weakness. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Lucid Secures $1.05B, Swaps CEO, Expands Uber Robotaxi Deal
Lucid Group released a trifecta of major updates, announcing a $1.05 billion capital raise, a leadership change, and an expanded robotaxi partnership with Uber and an affiliate of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund. https://t.co/F4hrNUg0UO