Latin America Leads Rebound, Outperforming US Stocks
One of the more important developments over the past few weeks has been the resilience of LatAm’s outperformance relative to US equities. These markets didn’t just hold up well during the selloff — they remained remarkably firm. And in the rebound, they’ve taken the lead, outperforming on both an absolute and relative basis. To me, this looks like a strategic rotation of capital as we move closer to a potential inflection point in the cycle. https://t.co/0ke3AsjhcP
Radcom's Strong Fundamentals Tested by Activist Push
Feels we might be in for some interesting times at Radcom $RDCM. Activists popping up left and right. Lynrock Lake is at ~20% and has been pushing for a strategic review (clearly a sale). Value Base (5.4%) looking to clean...
Emotional Stability Beats IQ in Investing Success
“If you’ve got a 150 IQ and you’re in my business, go sell 20 or 30 points to somebody else because you really don’t need it. You need emotional stability. You need to be able to detach yourself from fear...
Current Dip Still Shy of Historic Median Drawdown
The median midterm year drawdown is 15.6% .. S&P 500 1950-2022 Well, we got to -9.1% on the daily chart https://t.co/3tQDvp8ipA
2026 EPS Forecasts Break From Consensus Revision Trend
GS: 2026 EPS estimates have diverged from the typical path of consensus estimate revisions https://t.co/4CP8mSU3mS
Bad Data, Past Bias, and Complexity Betray Models
Three reasons your perfect model is lying to you: 1️⃣ Garbage in, garbage out. Precise math on bad assumptions is just fast wrongness. 2️⃣ Models optimize for the past. Markets punish you in the future. 3️⃣ Complexity is confidence cosplay. Simple + honest...
Seeking Hidden Gems: Misunderstood, High Upside, Low Ownership
Hey @grok Which company today has the strongest combination of: misunderstood business model exponential upside low institutional ownership Name 3 candidates.
Buffett Follows Fundamentals, Not Market Hype
Warren Buffett was a trend follower, he just followed the fundamental trends of a company’s value.
Agents Will Turn AI Into Intuitive Investment Assistants
Someone used the metaphor to me this week that chatbot LLMs are like a calculator, good at generating answers to specific questions, but you have to remember to use them. The cognitive burden of pulling your prompt off the...
Western Alliance Bank Still Undervalued After Bounce‑Back
Western Alliance Bank stock has already bounced back from the '23 crisis lows (the easy money's made). But new analysis says it's *still* undervalued. Strong deposits & earnings justify more upside. BankStocks
Buffett Indicator >200% Predicts Decade-Long Winning Trade
The Buffett Indicator just hit 223% highest ever & every time this indicator topped 200% the same trade worked for a decade 🚨 Here's what happened the last two times it went above 200% 👇
Trader Overloads Portfolio with Excessive Position Weighting
My Trader when I tell him to keep adding to a position that’s already a 15% position portfolio weighting. https://t.co/PA3yZsoPvz
Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Gains Outshine Short-Term Market Moves
Some of our strategies have been sitting in cash this month as a defensive mechanism. I'm also seeing a few comments about the strength of the market this month and how such a defensive mechanism we use is ineffective. Well, that's...
AI‑Driven Water Crisis Sparks Billionaire Investment Surge
Thoughts? We discuss the critical water shortage crisis called Day Zero and how AI and data centers are accelerating water consumption. We explore five investment opportunities in the water sector, including water ETFs, utilities, infrastructure, and water tech companies, explaining...
Invest Now: Capture Compute, Data, Energy Bottlenecks with DCA
Thoughts? I break down why now is the time to start investing and what most people are missing. We discuss how liquidity shifts, potential Fed rate changes, and trillions of dollars moving into the system could impact your portfolio. I...
Graham Prioritized Tangible Book Value Over Accounting Goodwill
Most investors think a high book value means a cheap stock. Graham didn't. He wanted tangible book value, assets you can actually touch, sell, or liquidate. Goodwill-heavy book value is an accountant's opinion. Tangible equity is a margin of safety.
April S&P New Highs Historically Signal Strong Year
3 new highs in April for the S&P 500. Interesting as strong as this month is, it doesn't see a ton of new ATHs. But the 19 other years it hit a new ATH in April saw the full year higher...
Industrials Forward P/E Near Record Highs vs Market
The forward P/E of the industrials sector relative to that of the broader market remains near record highs. ty @augurinfinity https://t.co/XZoDHelWSz https://t.co/doqKhFeI1Y
North Asia EPS Upgrade Raises MSCI EM Forecast
GS: Upgrades to North Asia EPS growth push our 2026/27 MSCI EM EPS growth forecast to 34%/14% from 23%/13% https://t.co/jK4UGxp0LY
Track Normalized FCF/Share via Long‑Term Cycle Analytics
This is a great question One of the most important output metrics in any model, in my opinion, is normalized FCF/share. There are many assumptions that lead to your FCF/share metric, including revenue & normalized margin assumptions. But quarter to quarter and year...
AI Could Transform SNDK Into High‑Growth Memory Leader
Is $SNDK a cyclical memory stock, or will AI make memory a stable grower? $SNDK +2,838% 1Y 🚀 +234% YTD 🟢 - Weak Margins - Weak Growth since 2022 - INSANE Outlook from AI - 157% 2028 FCF CAGR - Reasonable Valuation - 1% Above Consensus Price...
Tesla, SpaceX Poised for 50/50 Merger of Equals
After further research and our discussions on the @cyberbulls with @TeslaLarry yesterday, I agree that this will very well be a Merger of Equals. BUT - in my opinion - it will not be at the then stock price, which is...
Yardeni Cites Three Reasons Fueling Equity Optimism
Ed Yardeni lays out three reasons for optimism on equities and explains what's bringing back enthusiasm for the tech sector. https://t.co/0YEftxPkN4
AI Threatens Tech Moats, Future Cashflow Valuations Collapse
If AI lives up to the hype, it will erode the traditional long term moats of technology companies. As a result, no one with a brain wants to pay for cashflows far in the future. These multiples cannot come back unless...
Average Returns Mislead; Index Funds Beat Most Stocks
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝐦𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐦. New research from Hendrik Bessembinder argues that the standard tools, arithmetic means, Sharpe ratios, alphas, paint a misleadingly rosy picture of stock picking. Think of it like lottery tickets. The odds of winning "any prize"...
NVDA Overvalued, META Crowned 2026 Top Pick
$NVDA was obviously mispriced. $META was a Futurum Equities 2026 best idea for a reason. 🚀
Berkshire Gives Acquisitions Freedom, Not Just Capital
The most underrated thing Berkshire offers its acquisitions isn't capital. It's freedom. 1️⃣ No committee theatrics eating up your calendar 2️⃣ No quarterly PowerPoint ritual nobody believes in 3️⃣ No second-guessing where your excess cash goes Just: run the business. We'll handle the rest. Most investors...
Beating the S&P Is the Only
What people don't understand about the S&P is that every single person in the country who has money is also invested in it When your money goes up 15%, so does everyone else's You gained zero relative wealth. You need to outperform...
Deep Cash‑Flow Modeling Beats EPS for True Value
The senior analyst at a Tiger Cub who trained me on financial modeling back in '08 (shoutout Chris Laporte) walked me through the importance of deeply detailed cash flow builds. So much of the world is focused on EPS (certainly...
Half of Global Markets Rebound Amid Iran Conflict
"Looking across 46 different country ETFs since the start of the Iran war, the global picture looks far more resilient than headlines and the chattering media's pundits would suggest. Nearly half of the world's major markets -- 20 out of...
Foreign Value Stocks Surge, Advisors Finally Warm Up
After being up around 30% last year, foreign/emerging value is up another 15-20% this year. You're seeing the narrative shift with advisors a bit, ever so slightly. It seems to be moving from "don't even bring up foreign stocks, they've underperformed...
Oil Dip to $60 Could Lift S&P 10%
While oil gurus and geopolitical experts were opining with confidence on the potential outcomes we said we don't know shit. Here is our DSR from 3/22. https://t.co/268Hkj6EKA Herein we just considered scenarios and how they play out in macro based...
Geopolitical Tensions Revive Value Investing, Future Uncertain
This week in value: The Iran War Has Fired Up Value Investing. But What Next? (Bloomberg) A century of value investing (IFA) Why Value Investing Works (And Why It Has to Stop Working First) (Safal) Third Avenue Management: Small-Cap Value Strategy Overview and Insights...
Netflix's EPS Beat Fueled by Breakup Fee, Not Growth
Netflix 'crushed' earnings last night: $1.23 EPS vs $0.76 expected, a 60% beat. Revenue $12.25B, up 16% year over year. The stock is down 10% today at $97. Why? Because the beat was fake. $2.8B of that EPS came from...
Equity Risk Premium Near 4% Validates Current Valuations
With credit spreads still well-behaved and operating margins making new highs by the week, the valuation picture for US stocks remains justified, especially after the drawdown of the past few weeks. The chart below shows that the “fitted” equity risk...
International Stocks and Bonds Outpace US Markets
Not surprisingly VEA is crushing SPY Gotta own NON US Non USD stocks and bonds
Pinterest's Monetization Gap Signals Potential Upside
Pinterest stock looks undervalued. New analysis argues its ad revenue per user is way below peers like Meta. Closing that "monetization gap" could mean major upside. investing
Diversify Globally for Outsized Returns Beyond the US
Start of 2025: ‘Why should I own anything outside of the US?’ 15 months later: South Korea +179%, Peru +121%, Poland +98% … S&P 500 +18%. The future is unknown. That’s why you diversify. https://t.co/FgV3vruQ0G
Moutai Profits Dip as Consumers Tighten Spending
Kweichow Moutai’s Annual Profit, Revenue Fall for First Time—Moutai’s appeal has been waning as consumers become more cautious with their spending @QinSherry @ivy_jiahuihuang https://t.co/a4euTT2CbN https://t.co/a4euTT2CbN
Netflix Q1 Solid, Stock Dip Overreacts to News
My Thoughts on $NFLX The Q1 results are generally solid, although revenue growth has slightly slowed to +16.2%, which is still a strong growth rate. The stock dropped 9.6% after the earnings report, and in my view, this is an overreaction...
Pixelworks Uses $5M Buyback to Signal Licensing Pivot
Pixelworks $PXLW announced a $5m buyback, roughly 14% of its market cap. The company recently closed the sale of its semicon sub, which adds $51m to its $11m balance sheet. Not bad. Pixelworks is pivoting towards a ‘technology licensing specializing...
Profit Margins Soar While Economic Fundamentals Decline
"Alarmingly, in recent years, the trend of rising profit margins has become increasingly divorced from underlying traditional economic fundamentals." -Jim Paulsen, Paulsen Perspectives
Duolingo Stock Mispriced, 132% Upside Target
New post: a detailed research report and writeup on Duolingo. We believe $DUOL is mispriced and offers asymmetric risk/reward from today's price. Our base case is around $210/share, or 132% upside. https://t.co/EWAe0WXpFI
Long-Term Investment Thesis on HIMS and Peptides
This video shows part of my $RDDT investment thesis or you can click on this link for the full interview https://t.co/X7jWOIisLu I’ll be doing more interviews like this in the coming weeks… so I can walk through the investment thesis on...
Consistent Outperformance by Active Managers Is Rare
Very few active investors win consistently over time "While there some active money managers who “beat the market” over a year, two years or even five, very few are able to hold on to these excess returns as you lengthen...
Mark Mobius: Early Emerging‑Markets Guru Offers Timeless Investor Lessons
Mark Mobius was among the earliest to recognise the long-term potential of emerging markets. He was a true "Emerging Markets Guru"! His deep research, on-ground understanding & conviction offer enduring lessons for investors. https://t.co/nY0eK5KRBt @MotilalOswalLtd @Pun_ditry
Jardine Matheson Poised to Dominate Hong Kong Grocery Market
Jardine Matheson is in talks to acquire CK Hutchison's supermarket business ParknShop and merge it with Wellcome. Competition in Hong Kong's grocery industry would go down significantly, with the combined entity controlling >50% of the market. https://t.co/4MD3n7ptN1
Holding Cash Early Beats Desk Decisions Later
Seth Klarman proves that the best investing decisions aren't made at a desk, they're made years earlier, when you decided to hold cash while everyone else was fully invested. Preparation isn't passive. It's the most aggressive thing a value investor can...
Invest $5K Monthly, Reach $1M in 10 Years
Compounding money from investing is PURE MAGIC: • $5K invested / month for 10-years gets you to $1M • $5K invested / month for 20-years gets you to $3.8M • $5K invested / month for 30-years gets you to $11.3M FTR: this is starting...
Netflix Dip Signals Buying Opportunity Amid Strong Fundamentals
Ignore the boardroom noise. Netflix's fundamentals are strong: cash is flowing, paid sharing is working, and the ad tier is growing. The recent dip looks like a buying opportunity. investing