Trump-Era Markets Deliver 16% Annual Returns Despite Headlines
The US stock mkt returned 16%/yr during Trump 1.0 and so far under Trump 2.0 it's done the same with 16%/yr (well above the 9% avg). The price for those returns however is having to ignore a firehouse of scary headlines as well as sudden downturns in March and on Thursdays (something the Vanguardians have become masters at). Investing alongside the White House's stock picks has also been very profitable. On the latest Trillions we discuss what the ETF data says about how you should invest under Trump w/ @psarofagis @joelwebershow
Holding Decades, Not Churning, Signals Strong Process
"We expect to hold positions for 10-plus years. To us, constant churn is a telltale sign of a poor investment process that prioritizes short-term results.” - Dev Kantesaria
Panic Sell‑Off Makes $GMS.L a 100% Upside Play
Panic sell-off creating a perfect entry point on $GMS.L - London listed, 15 support vessel operators - Trading at 4x EBITDA with 20% FCF yield - Improving BS + massive backlog visibility - Capital dist. set to resume in '26 - 100% upside if catalyst...
Moats Require Years of Losses Before Returns
On Nvidia & CUDA: “building a real moat means absorbing real financial costs for years before any payoff arrives” https://t.co/hm6977yQDo
Major Cineplex Jumps 11% on Booming Q1 Profits
Thai cinema operator Major Cineplex MAJOR TB (one of my biggest positions) +11% today thanks to its 1Q2026 report: • Revenue +14% • Net profit +126% • The Thai box office was strong, driven partly by Avatar and The Undertaker 2 •...
Cerebras Gains 55% Upside From AWS, OpenAI Partnerships
Hedgeye Long $CBRS 55% Upside from $120 IPO Price(before the $150-$160 change cuz demand) Many reasons why ,but this one point stood out Commercial momentum has accelerated following major engagements with AWS and OpenAI (OAI). We estimate OpenAI TCV exceeds $20bn,...
Mark Dynamics Commands 45% Glove‑mold Market, 10% Growth
Glove mold maker Mark Dynamics (MARK IJ) via @TigerThesis: • 45% global market share in the hand-like molds used to produce rubber gloves • R&D jointly with customers = switching costs • Oversupplying post-COVID, but temporary • 10% secular growth • 2026e P/E 8.7x...
Ericsson Boosts Capital Efficiency with Aggressive Share Buyback
"@Ericsson Optimises Capital Structure with Aggressive Share Buyback Maneuvers", get the full story via the Elnion news desk.. https://t.co/CNAHE2qmvJ https://t.co/0MbpDlXZgS
TSLX Dividend Cut Signals Caution, Not Buying Opportunity
TSLX cut its dividend to $0.48—a sign of caution, not stability. With NAV erosion and rising non-accruals, this BDC still trades at a premium. Not a buy yet. 🚩 BDCs
China's PPI Surge Boosts FX, Not Equities
Good morning, China PPI rose to 2.8%YoY in April from 0.5% but CPI increased by much less at 1.2% vs 1.1% previously. Chinese equities have underperformed Japan, Taiwan, South Korea because of margin compression, subdued domestic demand, and thus less ability...
Four Metrics Separate Truly Cheap Stocks From Value Traps
Someone on r/stocks asked "what's the best way to tell if a stock is actually cheap?" Quick framework I use: - P/E below sector average (not just "low P/E") - Revenue growing >10% annually - Insiders buying on open market - Debt under 3x EBITDA -...
Seek Low‑Beta Stocks for Quality Returns
It has been tough to be a "quality" investor in Japan (and globally) over the last year or so. With low "beta" underperformance at the greatest levels since the TMT boom, it could be time for investors to consider lower-beta...
Public, Maybank Lead with Top PBV and ROE
Snapshot of Top 6 Malaysian banks and BIMB valuation. •Public has the highest PBV at 1.5x •Maybank is 1.4x The two banks have the best ROE of 12.1% and 11.3%. •RHB is “most improved” at 1.0x as ROE rose to ~10% Most banks...
Micron's 770% Surge Makes It Cheap on Earnings
"A 770% stock surge has made Micron one of America’s most valuable companies. Yet its profits have increased so much that the stock actually looks cheap by traditional valuation metrics" Shares are trading at 8.9x the co's projected earnings over...
All‑Weather ETF Combo Beats AOR on Returns and Risk
Here's an update on an ETF combo portfolio I have discussed before (I don't trade it). It contains: 30% $SPHB 30% $GLD 40% $DBMF The All Weather variant is a fixed allocation rebalanced monthly. CAGR 13.9% maxDD...
Semiconductor Giants Reveal Undervalued Growth: PEGs Below 1
SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS BY PEG RATIO PEG 2 starts to push into the danger zone Here’s how they stack up: • $INTC ~2.8x • $LRCX ~2.0x • $KLAC ~2.0x • $AMAT ~2.0x • $ASML ~1.7x • $ALAB ~1.6x • $ARM ~1.5x • $ANET ~1.5x • $LITE ~1.3x • $TSM ~1.1x • $CRDO ~1.0x •...
Average Returns Are Illusion; Airlines Need Data-Driven Profitability
🆓 Sunday links: the illusion of average returns, maintaining airline profitability, and the downside of skimping on economic data collection. https://t.co/1xzkfUMG96 image: https://t.co/kbfVS5Wdfv https://t.co/qXgjSeKAJa
Seek Compounding Stocks for Higher Returns and Downside Protection
I think about this a LOT. It’s very important to look for compounding in the stocks you buy for many reasons. Certainly it means you can profit more per hour of research. But, it also protects your downside, ensures you...
Eight Years of Growth Reveal True Moat, Not Luck
Buffett passed on a company that just posted its best year ever. He wanted to see year 8. Single-year outperformance is how good luck looks before it reverts. Eight years of it is how a moat looks before the market notices. That's not...
SK Hynix Still Cheap After 9x Surge
SK Hynix is up 9x since my April 2025 writeup. Usually, that means the easy money is gone. But here is the strange part: the forward P/E has barely moved. The market still values SK Hynix at ~5-6x forward earnings, as if this...
S&P Target Raised to 8250 Amid Record Earnings Surge
“We are raising our year-end S&P 500 target from 7700 to 8250. We've been bullish on earnings but not as bullish as the recent consensus of industry analysts. We've never seen consensus earnings expectations rise so quickly for the current...
Growth Returns, SaaS Valuations Favor Profitability Over Sales
SaaS valuation map: growth is back, but the market is still selective. Forward EV/Gross Profit tells a cleaner story than EV/Sales because it adjusts for gross margin quality. $PLTR currently trades around 72.3x Forward EV/Gross Profit with +62.6% NTM estimated revenue growth. $APP...
VanEck’s New UCITS ETF Diversifies European Dividend Exposure
Just published: a quick take on VanEck’s new ex-US UCITS dividend ETF ( $TDVX ) 🇪🇺🌍 If you’re a European investor looking to reduce US concentration while keeping a focus on dividend growth, this one deserves a closer look. I break down: •...
Even 2000 Nasdaq Peak Yields 8.2% Annual Returns
My favorite stat about the 1999 tech bubble: If you bought the exact top of the Nasdaq 100 in March 2000 you have generated 8.2% per year since then.
CRDO’s High P/E Justified by AI Growth, Future Cheapness
CRDO looks absurd until you do the math. 📈 Its high P/E makes sense when you factor in AI-driven revenue growth and expanding margins. If the numbers hold, today’s price could look cheap in two years. Semiconductors
EBITDA Growth Hits Four-Year High Across Issuers
Median YoY change in EBITDA... best in 4 years (it's not just 5 companies) (based on US investment grade non-financial non-utility issuers) BofA https://t.co/235aQY9wwT
JPM Boosts KOSPI Targets, Korea Remains Top Market
"Korea remains our most preferred market in the region and we raise our base/bull/bear case KOSPI targets to 9,000/10,000/6,000." - JPM
Prioritize Downside Protection: Selection, Valuation, Sizing
One "skill" way too many investors spend way too little time thinking about is downside protection. This can be expressed in various ways I believe: 📈 Security selection (business downside; range of outcomes; probability distribution of outcomes) 💲 Valuation (buying cheap; buying...
16 Firms Extend 10‑Year Dividend Growth Amid 44 Increases
There were 44 companies that increased dividends last week 16 of them have increased dividends for at least 10 years in a row These companies are listed below:
May/June S&P Peaks Signal Mid‑teen 2026 Returns
New highs in May/June are usually a good thing, as only twice going back the past 76 years has the S&P 500 peaked in these two months. We continue to see mid-teen returns in 2026 (which we reiterated in late...
Alphabet’s AI Push Faces Cost, Margin, Competition Risks
Alphabet’s AI rally might be hitting a wall. 🚧 Massive capex, margin pressure, and a competitive lag behind OpenAI/MSFT. The hype is real, but so are the risks. Worth a look before piling in. GOOGL
EPS Outlook: Russell 45
-Russell 2000 EPS growth rate hold at at 45% for the current year $IWM -S&P 500 up to 23% for CY 2026 $SPY -Steady 10-13% for the S&P 500 EW isn't bad $RSP https://t.co/noFpTnYumM
Top SaaS Stocks Lead with Explosive Forward Revenue Growth
Forward revenue growth matters in growth investing. For SaaS, this is especially important because valuations often depend less on current profits and more on future revenue durability, expansion, and category leadership. Fastest SaaS growers by NTM estimated revenue growth: $PLTR: +62.6% $APP: +42.4% $DOCN: +30.5% $AXON:...
WeightWatchers Remains Deeply Mispriced, Management Heeds Advice
New writeup: Weightwatchers' 2026 Q1 earnigns report. IMO still the most mispriced security in the market - by far. And thanks to WW management for acting on my advice. Link in bio $WW https://t.co/4CvTI290mv
Early Critics Mistook Buffett’s Patience for Failure
Everyone was calling Buffett a dinosaur in 1999. Nasdaq up 85%. His returns lagging the index. Articles asking if he'd "lost it." Then the dot-com bubble burst. And Berkshire quietly compounded through the wreckage. Being early and being wrong look identical. Until they...
Essential Financial Models Every Analyst Should Master
Top 5 Financial Models for Financial Analysts 👇 1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model – Used to estimate the value of a company based on future cash flows. 2. Three-Statement Model – Integrates the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow...
Price Over Prestige: Wait for Affordable Great Companies
Warren Buffett’s Protege Greg Abel on the importance of price in buying companies and stocks: "It's not that we don't see exceptional companies out there today that we'd love to own. But we’re not interested in acquiring companies at that price" "That...
Historic Buffett Indicator Spike Predicts S&P Downturn
Hey @grok The "Buffett Indicator" is currently sitting at 229% of GDP—the highest level in history. While everyone is talking about the "New AI Era," Berkshire is sitting on nearly $400 billion in cash. Show me the last 3 times this...
Misto Holdings: 50% of Titleist & FILA,
Premium subscribers of Asian Century Stocks just received a 57 page deck on Korea's Misto Holdings (081660 KS). It owns a 50% stake in Acushnet (Titleist) and FILA globally. This year's P/E is 9.1x with a clean balance sheet. Clicking the...
Focus on One Deal, Let Compounding Do the Rest
Munger never chased the next deal. He was too busy with the one already on his desk. Most people wait for a better opportunity. He made the current one better. Mr. Market rewards the hustlers. Compounding rewards the focused.
Malaysian Banks Boost Dividend Payouts, Sharpening Shareholder Returns
Bank Malaysia konsisten naikkan dividen payout ratio the last few years. Median 2025 div payout (top 6 bank): 62.3%, Avg 10yrs: 50.3% [Payout ialah jumlah profit yg “dipulangkan”kepada shareholders dalam bentuk dividend] Notables (Jumlah bayaran dividen 2025): •Maybank: RM7.6b, 72.4% payout dari profit. •CIMB:...
Bull Market Began 2013; Skeptics Proved Wrong.
Unless you were there, I can't stress to you how bearish everyone was right as we started the secular bull market back in 2013. Here's a clip of me talking about it. For 13 years, I've pretty much said the...
Tech‑Focused TLT Portfolio Delivers 23% CAGR, Beats Nasdaq
Launched in 2018, the Trade Long Term (TLT) portfolio targets leading technology stocks based on my expectation of sustained sector growth through 2030. Since its inception, it has achieved a CAGR of 23.1%, outperforming the NASDAQ’s 17.2% over the same...
Vipshop's Cheap Valuation Amid Buybacks and REIT Plans
Vipshop (VIPS US): • Overstock of China, now beauty e-com • Share buyback of 1/3 of shares since 2021, continuing • Selling Shanshan outlet properties as REIT soon • Trades at 6x P/E with 42% net cash/market cap • Risks: J Capital 2014 short report,...
WES Q1 Shows Strong Delaware Volumes, Lower Debt
WES just dropped its Q1 2026 call transcript. Key takeaways: solid Delaware Basin volumes, debt trending down, and strong cash returns. Worth a read for midstream watchers. 📊 Midstream
IREN Q3 2026: Revenue Surge and Data Center Expansion
Just had a peek at IREN’s Q3 2026 earnings call transcript. Revenue and data center growth were the big highlights. Good to see strategic updates from management, especially for staying sharp on where mining & energy projects are heading. 📈...
Focus on Interest Coverage in Normal Years, Not Booms
Graham had one rule most analysts skip: interest had to be covered, not in a good year. In a normalized one. Because the good years take care of themselves. That's not conservatism. That's the entire game.
Morgan Stanley: Stay US‑Overweight, Favor Large‑Cap Over Small‑Mid
Morgan Stanley: Remain O/W U.S. relative to international given positive earnings trends and relative resilience to energy-related supply disruptions. Move to U/W Large-Caps vs. SMID with added O/W to SMID in U.S. along with continued exposure in Europe. https://t.co/jsHtsvDvOQ
Ten Dividend Growth Stocks Worth Holding Forever
10 Buy & Hold FOREVER Dividend Growth Stocks: 💻 $MSFT – Microsoft 💳 $V – Visa 💰 $MA – Mastercard 🔬 $ASML – ASML Holding 📡 $AVGO – Broadcom 🛒 $COST – Costco Wholesale 📊 $SPGI – S&P Global ♻️ $WM – Waste Management 🛢️ $MPLX – MPLX LP 🏦...
S&P 500 Tech P/E Stagnates Mid‑Range Since 2020
The S&P 500 Expanded Tech P/E is right in the middle of its range since 2020... quite boring, actually @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/7FQmhF8OUY