Equity Allocation Peaks at Five-Year High, Biggest Shift Since 2020
"Equity allocation just hit its highest level in five years. April marked the biggest monthly shift since November 2020" State Street via Macro Ops
Record Margin Debt Yet Bullish on Chinese Stocks
According to Bloomberg, margin debt lending in China jumped to a record 2.8 trillion yuan on Monday, extending gains into a fourth session. Risk is rising, but I continue to expect that Chinese stocks will do well over the rest...
Elevra May Signal Start of New Lithium Upcycle
Is Elevra the first in this cycle? The last upcycle was marked by a hot period of three or four months where producers realised that the worst was over and they now needed to invest in supply. In a short...
Kuaishou to Spin Off AI Unit, Targeting $20B Valuation
China’s Kuaishou Plans Spinoff of AI Unit That Could Be Valued at $20 Billion—Kuaishou aims to list Kling in Hong Kong next year, said people familiar with the matter @raffaelehuang @Tracyyyqu https://t.co/mx6fvVNZN6 https://t.co/mx6fvVNZN6
SC and Bursa Launch Programme to Boost Listed Firms' Value
"The Securities Commission Malaysia (SC) and Bursa Malaysia today introduced the MY Value Up Programme a collaborative initiative to support Malaysian public-listed companies (PLCs) in elevating their long‑term value creation" https://t.co/5TLBzMw8Bp
Survivors of 2000 Crash: Lessons for Today’s Market
Most of my clients are asking me the same question recently. Are we heading into another 2000? From March 2000, the Nasdaq spent more than a decade underwater. A trillion dollars evaporated. Almost none of them know what actually happened to the...
Wealth Requires High‑Conviction, Concentrated Bets, Not Diversification
The other point is - and it’s one I really agree with - that despite the facetious framing it’s really an affirmation of massive concentration. Forget the 10 baggers, you need to make massively concentrated bets to build wealth, if...
Wealth Built by Repeating Leveraged Multi‑Baggers Over Decades
Thinking more about this. This is almost exactly how the Chandlers (secretive Kiwi multi billionaires) made all their money. No 5 ten baggers in a row per se but 5 multi baggers, in a row, rolling the entire stack forward...
Sega's Rovio Acquisition Becomes Massive Financial Disaster
3 years later, and the Rovio deal turned out to be the expected disaster for Sega. In their financial report from today, Sega mentions Rovio 15x in 62 pages, all in negative context (massive write-downs, losses, restructuring, declining sales etc.):...
Risk Models Miss Reality: Rare Events Defy Statistical Curves
Klarman keeps a list of every time a risk model said "once in a century event." It's a long list. The model didn't fail because the math was wrong. It failed because reality doesn't grade on a curve. That's not a bug. That's...
Bull Market to 2027? AI Surge Drives 15% S&P Upside
Honored to join The Money Path with @ToddSchoenberg and @BizTalkTodayTV. We discussed: 📈 Bull market to 2027? 🤖 AI boom + semis 📊 15% S&P upside? 🏦 Fed, inflation & bond risks https://t.co/6aMhLGGh1c
Cross $100K: Money Starts Working Faster Than You
If you're aiming for a $1M portfolio in the US, here is what the "halfway point" actually looks like in terms of time: 📍 $0 to $100k: ~8 years (The "Grind") 📍 $100k to $600k: ~12 years (The "Engine") 📍 $600k to $1M:...
Mid‑cap Stocks Remain Cheap Despite High‑flyer Valuations
The stock market is only “expensive” if you’re looking at the more popular high flyers. There are plenty of small and medium cap companies that are set to benefit from new tax laws and regulatory reforms that are still trading...
Strong GDP, EPS, and Margin Expansion Drive Market Rally
Folks wonder why $SPX up 17% and $QQQ up 27% from 3/30 lows - bc GDP is 3.7% and EPS up 25%. More importantly TR up 11% w margins expanding for EQ weight at 14.3% - old highs were 14.5%....
Exchange Funds Enable Diversification While Deferring Capital Gains
On the one hand, continuing to hold the security exposes much of the client's portfolio to the risks inherent in investing in a single company. On the other hand, selling the security in order to diversify may trigger significant capital...
Boeing Faces Renewed Legal Risk; Consider Protective Puts
Boeing legal risk resurfaces as LOT alleges 737 MAX concealment, raising regulatory and litigation costs. Risk: more payouts, order headwinds. Trade: reduce BA exposure; buy protective puts. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Global Bull Market Calls for Diversified International Exposure
This four pack in @FrankCappelleri's note today hammers home what we've been saying for 15 months now, this is a global bull market and you should have exposure around the 🌎vs just the US. Mexico, Italy, Hong Kong, and Singapore all...
ARCC Premium Signals Potential Value Trap; Await Discount
ARCC is trading at a 25-30% premium to NAV. 🚩 High yield looks tempting, but rising defaults + rate cuts could squeeze NAV. The stock might be a value trap at these levels. Better to wait for a discount before...
Energy Vault Reaffirms 2026 Outlook, Targets AI PPA Deals
Energy Vault reaffirms 2026 guidance, sets sights on AI infrastructure PPA deals #energysky -- via Energy Storage News: https://t.co/V52DfhOD7S
Free Cash Flow Beats Hype: Buffett’s Cigar‑butt Strategy
Buffett called it "cigar butt investing" like it was a joke. It wasn't. One free puff, backed by working capital, not a story, is worth more than ten analyst upgrades. The bargain isn't in the thesis. It's in what's already there.
JA Solar Eyes 2026 Profit as Industry Pivots H2
JA Solar set to return to quarterly profit in 2026, industry inflection point expected in H2 #energysky -- via pv-tech: https://t.co/4Rswo6uCvO
HIMS: Long‑term Peptide Play Despite Weak Earnings
$HIMS is a 5 year play for me. Peptides in the public market. I’ll come back in a few years. These earnings were not awesome. 😅
Some AI Stocks Overvalued, but Cycle Not a Bubble
There are always overvalued companies in any market. AI is no different. But select overvalued names does not make the entire cycle a bubble. It’s very early. 💪🏻🚀 https://t.co/xQFKcZZ69Q
HIMS Growth Lags 10‑year Yield, Multiples Overvalued
$HIMS YoY growth is lower than the 10Y yield and y’all were telling me I was wrong about assigning it lower multiples this time last year because it was a “gRoWtH sToCk WiTh TeCh MuLtIpLeS” 🥱
Tesla's Flat Revenue Meets 400x Earnings Premium
Tesla ($TSLA) revenue: TTM: 97,879,000 2025: 94,827,000 2024: 97,690,000 2023: 96,773,000 The market is currently paying 400x earnings for a company with low/no growth. Crazy (TTM = Trailing twelve months )
S&P 8,200 Triggers Record CAPE, Sub‑1% Yield
Ballpark 8,200 on the S&P gets us to an all-time high CAPE ratio and sub 1% dividend yield... Think it happens in 2026? https://t.co/MHciDgAS42
Half‑Market Share Implies $400 Valuation for $LQDA
50% market share for $LQDA of this TAM is a $400 stock. Just saying… Not saying it will trade to this, but this is what a potential buyer would look at and then determine what rate of return they would...
Stunning Q1 Growth, Yet Stock Slides 37%
$RDDT had one of the cleanest Q1 reports in all of tech last week $663 million revenue - up 69% year over year $1.01 earnings per share - that's 7x what they made a year ago 40% EBITDA margins operating cash flow up 145% and...
Ziggurat Sampling Highlights Real Estate Value; Stock Still Buy
Sampling at @AmerPacMine's Ziggurat project in NV gets underway. JV outlines the "telling real estate" that explains why the company is spending time here. Meanwhile drilling gearing up at Madison in Montana. Stock remains a clear buy (for now): https://t.co/6DfU0tB3Mr
Diversify with Index Funds, Skip the Perfect Stock Hunt
Don't be stressed about picking the "perfect" stock. You don't have to. Broad index funds let you buy a tiny slice of 500 major companies all at once. Diversification protects you from the sudden collapse of any single company.
S&P Bull Run Hits 7th Longest Since
Current bull market may go down as one of the strongest ever. It has been 838 trading days since S&P 500 saw a 20% drawdown from its high. Only 7th such run since 1950.
Dividends Come From Cash Flow, Not Free Money
Dividends are not free money. They are paid out of free cash flow. Let’s look at the example pictured below. We see three example stocks listed with their 2025 dividend per share listed and their 2025 free cash flow per share listed. When someone...
South Korea Exposure Drives IEMG’s 20% Outperformance
IEMG has outperformed VWO by *20%* over trailing 1yr... The primary difference? IEMG has exposure to South Korea. VWO excludes South Korea b/c index classifies it as a developed market. Wild performance dispersion b/w two ETFs many investors assume do the exact same thing....
S&P 500 Earnings Growth Spikes to 24.9%, Four-Year High
"Earnings growth for the S&P 500 is on track to accelerate sharply from 13.4% in Q4 to 24.9% in Q1, the highest in at least 4 years" --DB https://t.co/Bt3P1X9lAR
Greg Abel Emerges as Berkshire’s Next Transformative CEO
Adam @BRK_Student Mead on: * Why Greg Abel Already Looks Like Berkshire Hathaway’s Next Great CEO * Berkshire Hathaway Buybacks: Is Greg Abel Paying More Than Buffett Would? * Why EBITDA Is the ‘Instagram Filter’ of Finance * Could AI Become a Threat to...
STRZ Targets Early 20% EBITDA, Reduced Cash Spend
$STRZ Starting to see cash content spending coming down (big part of original thesis)... voluntarily terminated pay 2 window with universal, originals launching, etc. Expect to hit 20% EBITDA margin target a year early (2027 vs. 2028) and leverage target by yearend...
MFIC Defaults Surge; Apollo Seeks Private Buyer
MFIC defaults jumped from 3.9% to 5.3% in one quarter. Stock at 0.85x NAV. Mostly stopped new lending. Using cash from repayments to buy back stock and pay down debt. Now Apollo is trying to sell it. This is what BDCs do...
AppLovin Generates $8.4M Revenue per Employee
I've seen several accounts post the chart below showing revenue per employee at the big tech companies... I think it's worth mentioning @AppLovin -- $APP is expected to do $8.3B revenues in 2026 $APP did $1.842B revenues in Q1 which means their...
Nasdaq 100's Decade Return Beats Historic Market Booms
The Nasdaq 100 now has a higher return over the past 10 years than: Japan in the 1980s The Dow in the Roaring 20s The S&P in the 1950s Still trails the 1990s tech run but it's close Is this it? Is the melt-up here? How much...
MELI at 2022 Lows, 49% Revenue Surge Fuels Upside
Big spot for $MELI today... testing the VWAP from the 2022 lows... down -40% from the highs... trading at it's lowest ebitda multiple since the 2008/2009 GFC lows... company is seeing some margin compression because their credit portfolio is growing...
Diversified Unlevered Beta Outperforms, Stay Chill
Bubble or no bubble. Always own diversified beta including gold, bonds, tips, commodities, and equities. Our unlevered versions continue to outperform and are much more chill. https://t.co/C7NQkuttfM
Tiny Fee Gap Can Cost Tens of Thousands over Decades
$SPY (S&P 500 fund) has a 0.09% expense ratio. $VOO (S&P 500 fund) has a 0.03% expense ratio. A tiny 0.06% expense ratio difference can cost you tens of thousands of dollars over 30-40 years. Pay attention to fees.
Equity Risk Premiums Hit Pre‑GFC Lows; Bonds Gain Appeal
APAC ex Japan's equity risk premium sinks to the lowest since right before the GFC $VPL $EEM Same with Europe $VGK ... bonds increasingly attractive vs stocks https://t.co/9RoQNv3ref
HSBC Lifts S&P 500 Target to 7,650, Eyes 8,000
HSBC raises S&P 500 target to 7,650, sees path to 8,000 Joining RBC, Yardeni.. @seekingalpha https://t.co/OST088n9Ol
AI Growth Valuations Vary Widely Among Magnificent 7
AI growth is not priced equally across the Magnificent 7 Valuation is about how much future growth investors are buying today, and how likely that growth is to arrive on time. Forward P/E vs NTM estimated revenue growth shows a very different...
Stay Invested Through Market Cycles, Says BlackRock CEO
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says: “Markets will rise and fall. Bubbles come and go. The only thing that matters is staying invested through every cycle.” https://t.co/kZGkgxLVK3
Diversification Gains Uncertain—Don’t Count on Them
There’s belief among advisers that adding asset classes with low correlation increases return without adding risk. That portfolio benefit is extremely difficult to forecast and can be costly to implement. It’s best not expect a benefit. Great if it happens,...
Top Factor #3 Drives 10X Stock Returns
The secret of hedge funds is revealed in a 41-page PDF: This paper analyzed 464 stocks that 10X-ed over a 24-year period. Here are the best factors that drive outperformance: (number 3 is the best 🧵)
GLP‑1 Cash‑pay Users Set to Triple by 2030
In its initiation on $HIMS, The J.P. Morgan healthcare team estimates the long term GLP-1 cash pay addressable market to be over 120M individuals in the US, with only ~3M of those currently utilizing compounded or branded GLP-1s (~2.5% penetration)....
Constellation Software Embraces Large Partial Equity Investments
Constellation Software on taking partial equity stakes instead of outright acquistions: "So I think if we had the opportunity to invest a large amount of capital in a great business, over the long term, we are absolutely willing to do...