Ex‑Glencore Executives Flock to New Cobalt Venture.
Not in the stock right now but cobalt stans should be paying attention to how many former Glencore execs are getting into this company including those with extensive cobalt + DRC experience They see the opportunity
GameStop Rally Is Hype, Fundamentals Still Weakening
GameStop's recent surge is just social media hype, not 2021 again, says analysis. The bear case argues its core business is still in decline. A selling opportunity? 🎮 Stocks
Invest in Untapped Operating Leverage for Hidden Profit Explosions
My favorite type of investment? Businesses with embedded operating leverage that hasn't fully flexed yet. The market is notoriously bad at pricing long-term optionality. It sees the red line and the green line moving together today, but misses the "breakout"...
Investing at Market Peaks Beats Timing Any Other Day
Are you ready to have your mind blown? Since 1989, money invested when the market is at all-time highs has actually outperformed money invested on any given day. 🤯🤯🤯 https://t.co/qDhqxMLUZg
Lululemon Downgraded Amid High Valuation, Slowing Growth
Lululemon's products are still great, but a new analysis warns the stock's risks are now greater. Citing high valuation, tough competition, and slowing growth, the rating gets a downgrade. investing
Holding Stocks Wins, But Discipline Remains Tough
In hindsight, buying and holding stocks was the right choice this past year. That's easier said than done. This is a nice personal essay from financial newsletter ace @SamRo on how hard that is even for someone like him. https://t.co/ondBWl2hlM
Netflix Accelerates Its Evolution Amid Market Shifts
Today's TSOH Investment Research Netflix: The Pace of Change $NFLX Thank you to @FrancoOlivera for his feedback https://t.co/pCr6qiYKfI https://t.co/5kuiihQ5I9
Germans Shift €5.5bn From Stocks to €18bn Funds
Good Morning from Germany, where investors are moving money out of individual stocks and into investment funds. In Q4 2025 alone, Germans pulled €5.5bn from individual stocks, the largest outflow in more than a decade. At the same time, they...
Anthropic's Ownership: Big Tech Holds ~30% Collectively
Anthropic’s approximate major equity ownership: • Amazon: ~8–16% • Google (Alphabet): ~14%l • NVIDIA: ~3% • Microsoft: low single-digit % • Co-founders (Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei & other 5 co-founders): each ~1.8%+ (collective significant founder stake; total founders likely...
John Bogle Debunked Index Fund Idea, Then Created It
In 1960, two academics proposed the index fund. The person who argued against them? A young John Bogle, writing under a fake name. He went on to launch the first one. We made a short film about the paper that started it...
ELIX AI Growth, Lower P/E, Higher Dividend—Still Not a Buy
#ELIX good Update; AI seems to be a growth area for them. ShareScope showing fwd p/e 12.9 falling to 10.9 and fwd Divvy 3% rising to 3.5%; pretty reasonable valuation. I don't hold.
Revenue Beats, Backlog Record, P/E Improves, Dividend Rises
#KNOS "Revenue ahead of consensus", "Record backlog levels". ShareScope showing fwd p/e 21.5 falling to 18.1 and fwd Divvy 3.4% rising to 3.7%, BEFORE cash stripped out. Lot to like. I don't hold.
Avid Budget Downgraded to Underweight Amid Overvaluation
Avid Budget Group $CAR downgraded to Underweight @ Barclays 'Rental Car 1Q Set-Up: fundamentals improving, but stock move is all technical; d/g CAR to UW' Nevertheless, while fundamentals have become favorable, we downgrade CAR to UW from EW and raise our PT...
US Tech's Edge Fades; Global Markets Take Lead
To outperform MSCI World Index was easy in the past due to the following: US mkt was outperforming rest of world US tech was outperforming US market Mag7 plus a few more similar stocks were outperforming US tech So you bought 5-7 US tech...
Independence First, Wealth Follows Through Patience
Charlie Munger never set out to become a billionaire. He just wanted to never need permission from anyone. The money? That came from the same place the independence did — patience, compounding, and not doing dumb things. Financial freedom isn't a destination. It's...
100% Bull Markets Average About Three Years Duration
The current bull market is up 99.2%. Looking at the 7 bull markets that made it to 100%, they lasted another 3 yrs on avg (with a median of 1.8 years). Yes, things peaked soon after 100% was hit in 1980, 2007,...
S&P 500 CAPE Hits 40, Tops 99% Historic Levels
The S&P 500's CAPE Ratio has moved up to 40, its highest level since 2000 and now above 99% of historical valuations. $SPX https://t.co/uhUt33SCp5
Dollar‑Cost Averaging Beats Market Timing Every Time
Nobody can predict exact bottom or top but for 95% of the folks just DCA and keep adding. You will always win almost always. If you DCA into SPY from the beginning of year you would beat SPY itself its...
AMD Poised to Ride AI Chip Boom to $600
Bullish take on AMD: a deep-dive analysis argues the AI chip market is set to explode, and AMD's tech could drive its stock to $600. A bold, long-term vision. Investing
ServiceNow's Q1 Warns: Stock Demands Unrealistic Growth
ServiceNow's Q1 earnings preview sounds a caution. The bearish take? It's a great company, but the stock price demands near-perfect, sustained growth that may be unrealistic. All eyes on cRPO guidance. investing
ServiceNow Overvalued: Near‑Perfect Growth Required to Sustain Price
ServiceNow's a top company, but this analysis says its stock price is too high. It needs near-perfect growth to justify current levels. A stumble could hurt. investing
Skip Firms Needing a Banker’s Handshake to Survive
Graham's most overlooked filter wasn't P/E ratios or book value. It was this: does this business need a banker's handshake to survive the next downturn? If yes, pass. Refinancing risk is where defensive portfolios quietly go to die.
Insider Purchases $11M MESO Shares, Signals Strong Confidence
Insider buy I keep watching - $MESO A director just bought 7.9M shares between April 4 and 10. Open market. Across multiple related accounts Average price - around $1.45 a share Total clip somewhere near $11M for that one filing alone This isn't a...
Fermi 10‑K Clues Reveal Why Neugebauer Left
Here’s another close look at Fermi, including excerpts from its 10-K that may explain Neugebauer’s departure, an odd statement from Neugebauer, a Fermi timeline, and my thoughts on what will happen next. Link is below. https://t.co/HCwbhXRlNn
S&P
From its inception in 1957 through today, the S&P 500 has hit 1,313 all-time highs, hitting a new high once every 19 days on average. https://t.co/jjlXwK9mzq
CVD Equipment Nears Liquidation, Cash Hits 80% Market Cap
Not officially a liquidation, but getting close (I think). CVD Equipment $CVV agreed to sell its Stainless Design Concepts division for $16.9m, o/w $15m after taxes and fees. This will bring total net cash on the b/s at ~80% of...
Bull Markets Surviving Three Years Usually Persist for Years
The current bull market is 3.5 years old and up 99.2%. As we've noted many times, once bull markets get past their third birthday they rarely end anytime soon. Over the past past 50 years, 5 made it past their 3rd birthday...
Japanese Mortgage Guarantor Faces Yield Impact, Low ROE Concerns
Japanese dominant independent mortgage guarantor with extremely high profit margins How they are hurt/helped by rising yields is very interesting to me Write-up from shareholder saying their ROE is too low (& they hold too much capital) https://t.co/BVNg6v8bps
Usage‑Based SaaS Overtakes Seat Model in Valuation
SaaS market has re-rated pricing models. From 2019–2021, seat-based companies earned a valuation premium for predictability. By 2026, that premium has flipped as investors increasingly prefer subscription models tied to usage, output, and AI-driven value creation. Seat-based SaaS traded above other subscription...
Russell 2000 EPS Growth Outpaces S&P 500
18% S&P 500 EPS growth seen this year... just 11% for the S&P 500 EW. But 44% for the Russell 2000. GS https://t.co/ZYTwDJ60Km
Avoiding Recession Leads to Double‑Digit Stock Gains
We never expected a recession this year (including four weeks ago) and history shows that years that are able to avoid a recession see stocks up double digits nearly 7 out of 10 years. https://t.co/k2LDYKyttL
Early Bull Run: Only 30% of Market Upswing Completed
From 1989 through 2000, the market (ie $SPY) made 327 new highs. From 2013 through 2022, the market (ie $SPY) made 347 new highs. From 2024 through 2026, the market (ie $SPY) has made 103 new highs. Its possible we're only 30% of...
Top 10 US Firms Hit Record Earnings Share
The 10 largest US companies haven't contributed this much to total earnings in the modern era GS https://t.co/KBJshEbLTw
Intel's Valuation over Doubles Dot‑com Peak
"Intel... now trades for more than 130 times its projected earnings for this year, far above the peak multiple of 60 times that the stock briefly touched during the dot-com bubble." https://t.co/yO388d0820 https://t.co/2HjelEQb7W
Insiders Bet on Ag Growth at 6x EV/EBITDA
Lots happening at Ag Growth $AFN The shares dropped quite a bit on poor results and the dividend cut. The CFO recently resigned. Shreholder Plantro is publicly pushing the company to launch a full sale process, arguing the company’s latest earnings...
VSNT Eyeing STRZ Despite Divergent Growth Forecasts
$STRZ Stock ripping lately... CEO incentive comp is old news (Nov 2025) Hmm... VSNT likely acquirer here... they want non-linear revenue streams and STRZ gets 70% of revenue from digital sell-side penciling ~3% EBITDA growth '26-28 for STRZ vs. 12% decline at VSNT https://t.co/kOTAwW2Pc3
AI Boosts Cloud Demand; Overweight Hyperscalers Recommended
AI expands software TAM; IaaS/PaaS and GPU/CPU demand will drive cloud growth. Risks: niche disruption, legacy churn. Trade: overweight hyperscalers & cloud infra. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Five Funds Rarely Provide True Diversification
5 funds. That's what most clients are told is a diversified portfolio. 5 funds is almost never diversification. Open them up and you usually find the same 30 stocks repeated five ways.
Buy Stocks Like Groceries, Not Perfume, for Wealth
Most investors shop for stocks like perfume, chasing the scent of what's hot. Benjamin Graham shopped for stocks like groceries. One method makes you feel sophisticated. The other makes you wealthy.
TravelSky: China’s 95% Air Travel Transaction Monopoly
What's the ideal asset to own? How about an air travel monopoly that takes a cut out of almost every transaction in China? That's exactly what TravelSky (696 HK) is, with a 95% domestic market share. https://t.co/iSe3O4t9V1
Invest $5k in AI’s Core Infrastructure Bottlenecks
Thoughts? I break down how I'd invest $5,000 in the critical bottlenecks powering AI: water and cooling infrastructure ($1,000 in VRT and PHO), energy solutions ($3,000 in nuclear via Oklo and CCJ), and compute ($1,000 in IonQ and Nvidia). These...
Learn From Mistakes, Seize Dips for Future Gains
I can’t throw rocks at @CathieDWood for making a stupid investment move. I sold my Apple in 2003 when I took a job at Microsoft. I doubled my money, thought I was brilliant. It was the equivalent of something like $.25....
Industrials Now Outpace S&P 500 with 4.6‑point Premium
Industrials now trade at a 4.6-point premium to the S&P 500. Historically, they've traded in line or below the broader market. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/hOtouHjlPA
Invest when Stock Earnings Yield Exceeds Risk‑free Rate
Buffett doesn't check the ticker every morning. He checks whether earnings yield still beats the risk-free rate. When stocks yield more than bonds, you're being paid to be patient. When they don't, patience has a price. Do the math. Then do it again.
QuidelOrtho Mispriced: 2026 Cash Flow Bet Could Double Shares
QuidelOrtho stock is down ~70%, but a new analysis says it's mispriced. The bet? If management's 2026 free cash flow turnaround works, shares could double. High-risk, high-reward play. investing
Companies Overpay Now, Ignoring Munger’s Cheap‑Buy Warning
Munger didn't sugarcoat it: companies bought almost nothing when stocks were cheap. Now they're buying hand over fist at the top. Capital allocation is where management tells you the truth about their judgment. Most are failing the test.
S&P 2002 Bottom Yields 1156% Gain, Gold Lags
Since the bottom in the S&P 500 in 3q 2002: SPX Total Return (blue): Up 1,156% SPX Total Return priced in gold (red): Down 17.5% https://t.co/Ar8IPnAqOe
Intel's Packaging Wins Set Stage for Wafer Deals
Intel has made great strides. I was one of the only analysts that gave them a shot when the company had been written off for dead by most. They’re definitively getting advanced packaging from big XPU players. I called this...
SPX Beats 2025 High, Yet Valuation Is Cheap
SPX has soared above its October 2025 price peak, but its P/E ratio is way lower now.
Price Drives Narrative, Not Just Reflects Reality
I wrote something internally awhile back about reflexivity, given what's taking place in software. Everyone knows the idea, price doesn't just reflect perception, it can shape it. When a stock is working, the questions / work is much more optimistic....