AI Cash Flows Downhill to Power‑heavy Infrastructure
Money is starting to flow downhill - a critical observation for the next few years. The Mags may make all the money but they are spending it faster than they can make it. Their free cash flows are cratering. Best to follow the money and see who’s getting it. In this case, it’s following the AI trade and, more specifically, the data center and power economies. Make money from capital light business models like ads and software, then redirect it to asset heavy, traditional infrastructure companies. A complete reversal from the last 20 years is underway.
Equal‑Weight Index Beats Weighted Despite Blockbuster Mags Earnings
Blockbuster earnings from the Mags…BUT the equal weight is massively outperforming the weighted index today. 🤔
Inseego to Acquire Nokia's Fixed Wireless Access Business
"Inseego $INSG said on Thursday it will acquire Nokia's $NOK fixed wireless access, or FWA business, to expand its global footprint in wireless broadband." https://t.co/O5VEKjus4K via Seeking Alpha
Rising Global Debt Signals Fiat Debasement, Boosting Gold‑Silver Miners
IMF warns: Global govt debt exploding to 102% of GDP by 2030 highest since WWII. US + China leading the charge. Translation? Fiat debasement ahead. Gold & silver miners are your leverage play. Cash-flow machines with rising metal prices. $gdxj...
Potential $1.5 T Dry Powder Could Ignite Stock Rally
We haven’t heard much about that mountain of cash supposedly sitting on the sidelines waiting to get sucked into the market. My take has been that the $7.8 trillion sitting in money market funds came from the banks and not...
Active Management Returns as Market Shows Clear Winners
Active management making a comeback?!? There is actually dispersion in the market. There are now winners & losers. https://t.co/2IElGGZKWi
Diversified Long-Term Investing Turns Market Turbulence Into Opportunity
Remember this the next time you find yourself in a turbulent market with bad news: 1. You are a long-term investor 2. Diversified portfolios are resilient 3. Down markets present opportunities 4. Corrections and bear markets have always given way to a recovery https://t.co/7U3OZH4iTy
Nike Bounces Back Amid Market Challenges
Today's TSOH Investment Research "Nike: Fighting Back" $NKE Thank you to @FrancoOlivera for his helpful feedback and edits https://t.co/dupGIEWdYS https://t.co/VqgZUmUTbl
Ackman Purchases 1.3M PS Shares at Deep Discounts
An excerpt from my interview with @CNBC on $PSUS and $PS. I bought 500,000 shares of $PSUS and 800,000 shares of $PS yesterday in the open market. PSUS trades at a large discount to its $49 cash per share...
MYE Undervalued: Signature Systems Drives Hidden 70% EV
$MYE looking cheap again. Still up 30% since the original pitch, but trading at 10x EV/2025 FCF. Hidden asset Signature Systems is potentially worth 70% of EV alone. Gamco, with a 15% stake pushing for a Signature partial IPO. Management mute on...
Naspers Pays Premium Buying Shares Above Average Cost
Naspers is now sitting at R894 a share. They continue to buy shares weekly at around the +R900 level, and are spending billions of Rands every month doing so. Their average share price since starting their repurchases sits at +-R725...
Big‑Cap Stocks See Valuations Diverge From Fundamentals
We are seeing a massive decoupling of valuations from fundamentals. The larger the stock, the more intense this shift becomes. Here is the data on the new market reality 🧵 h/t @mjmauboussin for this wealth of data. https://t.co/3cVr2WqgiZ
MONY Appears Cheap: Lower P/E, Higher Dividend
#MONY Update reads OK and no evidence of AI causing problems. ShareScope has fwd p/e 9.5 falling to 8.9 and fwd Divvy 7.5% rising to 7.7% and Buybacks on top. Could be cheap really. I don't hold.
GLEN Margins Set to Expand as Metal Prices Rise
#GLEN says production pretty much in line but suggesting rises in metals prices could widen margins, despite higher input costs. ShareScope has fwd p/e 13.4 RISING to 13.5 and fwd Divvy 2.6% each of next 2 years; very difficult to...
Turnaround Achieves Positive Cash Flow Amid Revenue Decline
Macro: Turnaround posts first positive operating cash flow; receipts +31% 📈 Key: revs down as IP cyclical (-51.5%) and lower marketing; staff -29%. Risks: margin squeeze. Trade: long WNX into Q4.— Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
CATL Share Sale Expected to Narrow HK‑Shenzhen Price Gap
A blockbuster share sale by CATL is poised to further chip away at the unusually high premium on the company’s Hong Kong-listed shares, potentially bringing them closer in line with its Shenzhen stock, analysts say https://t.co/bVwHsKyCjy
Treat Rent as Operating Cost, Not Financing Cash Flow
The silly rule of showing rent as cash flow from financing makes it so painful to find out if a co is truly cash flow positive from ops. Rent is an operational cost so you have to put back the...
Ayala Land Trades at Roughly Half Its Book Value
Ayala Land, one of the Philippines most well-known and respected property developers, is now being valued by the market at near HALF book value. Wow https://t.co/ePVrGvsF8S
TSMC's AI‑driven Pricing Power Fuels Further Upside
TSMC keeps hitting all-time highs, but the AI boom and pricing power suggest there’s more room to run. Geopolitical risk is real, but their tech moat is massive. Semiconductors
AMD: The Overlooked AI Winner You Should've Bought More
In hindsight, AMD has been an obvious play over the past few months. The biggest tech companies clearly signalled in their earnings reports that AI spending was ramping up fast, and we knew they were buying directly from AMD. I even posted...
Permanent Portfolio Poised for 26% Gain, Best Since 1933
The Permanent Portfolio is on track to gain +26% in 2026, its best annual return since 1933. It consists of equal portions of US stocks, 10-year Treasury bonds, commodities, and cash.
Meta's Tax Win Skews Earnings Multiple, AI Doubts Remain
$META Tax rate in Q1: -23% It trades at 23x earnings after today’s results, but if you use GAAP accounting it’s more like 18x because there was a massive tax saving in Q1. On a cumulative basis, Meta had a $15B+...
Google’s AI Edge: Monetize Existing Platforms, Amazon Leads Commerce
On consumer AI, Apple aside, Google has the runway. Monetizing on top of YouTube, Maps, and Search beats inventing new behavior which is something OpenAI would have to do. And before I bet on Meta, I bet on Amazon for...
Microsoft Call Shows Strong Inference Margins
Q on the MSFT call. The answer, my friend, is inference margins are VERY good. https://t.co/7UtLynInd8
AWS Rakes $142B, Yet 85% Remain On‑Prem
$AMZN: AWS annual recurring rev at $142B and yet 85% of enterprises are still on prem. Something to think about about.
Meta Beats Expectations, Shows 30%+ Growth Across Board
$META: you would sell this at 17x? TR +33%, Ad rev +33%, OI +30%, OM 40.6% vs 35% expected and DAP +4%. Yes, Capx up but OpX flat.
AI Cloud Surge Validates Bull Thesis Across Tech Giants
The bull thesis just got validated. In a single afternoon. ...
Amazon's Q Beats Forecast, Growth Accelerates Across All Segments
$AMZN: good Q w beat/raise. TR +17% w N.A. retail +12%, intl +19%, AWS +28%, Ads +24%. OI beat and capex in line. Clearly the capex is working. Incredible growth for a company of this size/scale.
Low Debt Keeps Good Companies Alive in Recessions
I've watched good companies destroy shareholder value during recessions. Not because the business failed. Because the balance sheet forced their hand. Debt covenants. Liquidity crunches. Share issuances at $12 when the stock was $40. You can be right about the business and still lose...
Amazon Must Spotlight Consumer AI to Rerate Valuation
$AMZN revenue up 15% in March vs. 12% in December. AWS up 28% missed the whisper of 30%. Thats ok because the real number was likely much better. Have to wait for the call to hear more. My take: Like Microsoft, Amazon...
GOOG CFO Predicts Capex Surge, Likely 20‑30% Rise
$GOOG CFO says capex in 2027 will increase "substantially" over 2026. Street is expecting up 10%. My take: I bet it's up 20-30% next year.
Semiconductors Now Exceed Consumer Discretionary in Market Cap
Semis represented more than 10% of global market cap as of Monday... that industry is larger than the Consumer Discretionary sector UBS via @augurinfinity https://t.co/53A9gOEPr5 https://t.co/mUSyBhDNrN
Microsoft Cloud Surges, Fueled by AI Demand
Microsoft reported strong growth in its cloud-computing business, suggesting it’s capitalizing on massive demand for AI services https://t.co/Nxflz5zqFi
QCOM Beats Modest Forecast; Data‑Center Chips Drive Future
$QCOM expectations were modest this week quarter and it delivered. I stand by my assessment that what will move the needle for the company will be its data center entry with a portfolio of XPU, CPU, Custom, and Networking chips. The...
Google Cloud Revenue Jumps 63%, Backlog Nearly Doubles
$GOOG 👀 "Google Cloud revenues grew 63% with backlog nearly doubling quarter on quarter to over $460 billion."
Joby Aviation Profits without Selling eVTOLs
Day 15 of 30: How $JOBY Joby Aviation actually makes money (which one should I do next?) Most people think it's an eVTOL company that flies passengers It's not. Not yet. Their first commercial eVTOL flight is in Dubai later this year So how does...
Expect 5‑10 Years of Sideways S&P Performance
U.S. equity investors -- get ready for five to ten years of chop suey During the past 100 years the S&P index chopped sideways for 54 years. That is 46 years of no new net gain (other than from dividends) S&P Index...
SOX at 60× P/E: Euphoric, Limited Upside
SOX index at 60x P/E is what you would call ‘euphoric’ or ‘priced to perfection’. Market doesn’t care to consider the alternative, yet, but that also doesn’t give it a lot of upside room - outside of a meltup ala...
Consumer Spending Remains Resilient, No Recession Signal
The consumer is not collapsing. There's no recession signal here. Spending is resilient. Explains why earnings haven’t cracked and markets remain supported.
Equity Risk Premium at 4%, S&P Fair Value 7,455
While valuations in the US remain a concern for many investors, in my view they are justified by the macro fundamentals of all-time high (and rising) margins and tight credit spreads. Those two variables are the independent variables in my...
Avoid High P/E Low‑Growth Stocks: Rule Proven
My "don't buy 60 P/E stocks that aren't growing fast" rule working pretty well. 3.5 / 5 "high qual low growth rich valuation" stocks I've highlighted have been dogs Right (they're down) $WING $FICO $CMG Wrong (it's up) $WMT Push (It's up as...
Ackman Possibly Forfeits $10B by Favoring CEFs
How much money is Ackman leaving on table by doing CEF vs ETF. Prob $10b at least. But tbf CEF may just be what he’s more comfortable w for his strategy. Still tho, if reaching investors is goal this prob...
CHTR's $1B Buyback Now Loss; Prioritize Debt Reduction
$CHTR bought back $1B of stock in Q1 @ $219. Stock is now $165. Maybe debt reduction should be prioritized given the lack of revenue and EBITDA growth? #CellPhoneInternet
Quantamental Investing: Merging Human Insight with Data‑Driven Alpha
I was an early intellectual convert to the concept of quantamental investing: blending the best of fundamental & quantitative investing. It just struck me as an obvious concept Blend what fundamental investors do well: > Forward-looking judgment under uncertainty > Underwriting cash flows in...
Rising WTI/XLE Ratio Signals Oil‑Led Market Shift
WTI crude 72% y-o-y vs XLE (energy equities) 47% y-o-y. * Rising ratio = oil outperforming energy stocks * Falling ratio = energy stocks outperforming oil The WTI/XLE ratio turning up is the signal. It suggests a shift from energy as mature, low...
Eaton Targets Legacy Powerlines and Aging Aircraft
A lot of the Eaton thesis can be summed up as, "old powerlines and old airplanes". From their 2025 investor day https://t.co/yb1aLoFU4n
GRUSF’s $361/Lb Breakeven Fuels Bullish Outlook
$VEXTF on their call said that cultivation costs "once you bake everything in for ROIC its $800-900/lb range." They are exiting Arizona because the price is below that cost. $GRUSF has reported $361 a pound four wall costs (EBITDA breakeven...
Private Credit Turmoil Makes BDCs More Attractive
The poor sentiment toward private credit funds has dragged down many high-quality BDCs, as well as weaker ones. The chaos and bad press surrounding private credit funds are not reasons to avoid BDCs. In fact, we think it’s a...
Buy Mining Stocks on Bad News, Profit Later
My favorite time to buy mining stocks? When there's bad news. Production delays. Accidents. Setbacks. Other investors panic. I accumulate. Why? The gold is still in the ground. They're just digging it out LATER. And later = higher prices. Be patient. Be contrarian. MiningStocks #BuyTheDip...
Non‑US Earnings Outpace US, Rising 25% vs 23%
While it’s tempting to lay it all on the AI story, earnings are booming even faster outside the US. The year-over-year change in forward estimates is 25% for the MSCI ACWI ex-US index, vs 23% for the MSCI US index....