Buffett Warns: Markets Remain Cautious After Stepping Back
JUST IN: Warren Buffett offered a cautious take on markets in his initial comments since stepping back.
Regime Dictates Success; Any Indicator Will Work
It always amazes me how people fall for this nonsense. From 2007 onward the SP was a pure BTFD regime. Of course buying the down day worked. In all strategies the ONLY variable that matters is regime. Get that right...
Value Stocks Lose Safe‑Haven Status Amid Market Turbulence
JUST IN: Value stocks, a key refuge from this year's market turbulence, are now at risk.
Cisco Poised for AI-Driven Revival to New ATH
$CSCO was incredibly well setup for the AI era. We called it in our @FuturumEquities AI 15 a year+ ago that AI + Cyber would bring Cisco back to life. Back to ATH 💪🏻🚀
AI Unicorns Poised for $2 Trillion Valuations
What are my current valuation predictions for OpenAI and Anthropic? OpenAI was valued at $28B in April 2023. Its latest funding round puts it at $852B. Anthropic was valued at $4B in early 2023. Today, it’s worth $380B. In my...
Patience Beats Tickers: Invest in Quality, Not Daily Swings
Warren Buffett shows us that patient, long-term investing beats watching the stock ticker every day. Using See’s Candy as an example, once you buy a high-quality business, fundamentals matter more than daily price swings.
ETF Liquidations Accelerate, Winners Face Curse, Aluminum Squeezed
🆓 Sunday links: how the winner's curse works, the quickening pace of ETF liquidations, and tough times for aluminum consumers. https://t.co/WzJWiWfiDv image: https://t.co/25ICizy0cu https://t.co/squG5KO1ww
Growth Wins When SBC Dilution Stays Low
SaaS dilution check: growth is strong, but SBC is the hidden tax👇 This chart maps SBC/Revenue vs NTM growth • Red → SBC exceeds FCF margin (value leakage) • Yellow → moderate dilution • Green → disciplined compensation Market is starting to price efficiency, not...
Consistent Quality Investing Turns Dividends Into Freedom
In 2014 I started investing with almost nothing. Today my dividends cover 85% of my monthly expenses. Not because I picked the right stocks at the right time. Because I kept buying quality businesses and let the compounding do its work. Year 1 felt...
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium Hits Two-Year High
The S&P 500's equity risk premium is at a 2-year high.. even with higher TIPS yields @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/T5y4c7SbGO
Falling Forward P/E, Energy Rally, Decision‑Bias Tips
📊 Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns including: falling forward P/E ratios, the rally in energy stocks, and how to de-bias your decision making. https://t.co/49VfVWoRE9 chart: https://t.co/zX6UI4DmUC https://t.co/poNb6SvW33
Rule of 40: Market Rewards Balanced Growth
Rule of 40 is where SaaS valuation meets reality Growth alone isn’t enough 👇 Chart combines NTM growth + GAAP EBITDA margin • >40 = high-quality balance (green) • 30–40 = acceptable (yellow) • <30 = weak efficiency (red) Market is clearly rewarding balance, not just...
Paying Premium? Demand Rapid Growth and Strong Metrics
If you're going to pay an expensive valuation, the business better be growing fast with exceptional financial metrics. High valuations with slow growth is the worst combination in investing. You're paying up for nothing.
Assess Management Reputation to Uncover Hidden Risks
A key variable for investors is management reputation A lot that happens inside a company that is critical for success is outside of public view Investors must ask themselves if they believe management is giving an accurate assessment, both good &...
Tariffs Boost US Steel Prices
Tariffs sustain US steel prices; infrastructure demand firm. Nucor: scale + scrap verticals; Commercial Metals: rebar exposure, M&A. Risks: demand slump, tariff rollback. Trade: Buy Nucor for FCF upside. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
TSMC Quality High, Upside Limited at Current Price
I haven’t published my full thesis on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) yet but here’s the scorecard: Current view • Price: ~$339 • Expected value: ~$334 • Upside: Limited at current levels This is easily one of the highest-quality businesses you’ll find, dominant positioning, strong pricing power, and exceptional visibility. But...
Reassessing Counterpoint’s 2022 Wide Moat Winners
This is a list of Wide MOAT businesses according to Counterpoint Global in 2022. What do you think has changed since then?
OpenAI’s Valuation Overhyped Even as AI Thrives
I promised to write about OpenAI, and I finally have the time to sit down and pull my thoughts together. AI Is Not a Bubble, But OpenAI’s Valuation Could Be the Next One “Why Secondary Buyers Are Quietly Dumping OpenAI at $852...
Record Cash Reserves Signal Prime Buying Opportunity
Current cash levels in a historical perspective, as per the BofA FMS. Feels like a good time to buy https://t.co/KoeTO5ThBC
SCHG Outperforms with 79% 5‑year Return
SCHG is loaded with growth leaders 👇 Top holdings: • NVDA 11.44% • AAPL 9.44% • MSFT 7.87% • AMZN 5.73% • META 4.96% • GOOGL 4.84% • TSLA 4.27% • GOOG 3.88% • AVGO 3.86% • LLY 2.96% 5-year return: +79% Would you pick SCHG over QQQ or VOO?
Chasing Returns Leads Most Investors to Lose Money
Even with such remarkable performance, the majority of Magellan Fund investors lost money during Lynch's time at the helm. They chased performance, piling into the fund after strong years, only to sell out during market downturns. This is a tale as...
Trump Era Mirrors Hoover: Market Overvaluation Sparks Gold Surge
Hoover 1929 vs. Trump 2026: Cycles Favoring Risk-Off vs. Risk Assets - The election of President Donald Trump in 2024 has a disconcerting parallel with that of President Herbert Hoover in 1928 -- US stock-market capitalization stretched to over 2x...
Netflix Valuation Too High, Await Pullback for Safety
Someone recently asked me about my scorecard on Netflix (NFLX). My current take: • Expected value: ~$104 • Upside: Limited at current levels It’s a great business, but not every great business is a great buy today. Price still matters. For now, I’m staying patient and waiting...
Choose Better, Not More: Long-Term Investing Wins
The secret to stock market success isn’t trading more, it’s choosing better. Learn how long-term investing and patient decision-making can help you outperform and grow your wealth over time.
Markets Rebound Every Crash—Stay Focused Long Term
The stock market went down: • 49% in 2000 • 55% in 2008 • 35% in 2020 • 27% in 2022 • 23% in 2025 But it recovered every single time so far. There will always be short term volatility. That’s totally normal and healthy. Focus on...
Long‑term Investing Is Essential for Wealth Growth
Go out a year or more, and it's clear why staying invested is key to building wealth JPMAM https://t.co/MTyltd1yyP
War Boosts Returns; Your Reaction Is the Real Risk
War actually isn’t a bad time to invest… • Large caps averaged ~11.4% returns • Small caps averaged ~13.8% returns • Volatility was lower than normal The real risk to your portfolio isn’t war It’s your reaction to it.
Profitability Drives SaaS Premium Multiples Over Growth
SaaS valuations aren’t random — they cluster around growth + profitability Forward EV/Gross Profit vs NTM growth shows: • Higher growth → higher multiples (expected) • But operating margin is the real filter • Profitable names (green) consistently trade at premium $NET — 48x EV/GP...
Time Wins: Markets Rise After Every Bear
Stick to long term plans. $spx monthly flows win. 529 plans can pay for college Markets take the stairs up and the elevator down." This chart proves it beyond any doubt. S&P 500. Every bull and bear market since 1949. Bull markets: → Average...
Fewer Investment Decisions, Better Business Quality Focus
Chuck Akre on decision-making "The fewer investment decisions we make, the less exposure we have to making mistakes. Obviously, these decisions that are made must be correct, which is why we spend so much time trying to understand the quality of...
Asset-Light Myth: Investments Now Hit Income, Not Balance Sheet
"I always thought this idea of asset light was a bit of a myth because if you're just laser focused on investment, you're just realizing the investment was not in the balance sheet as it was historically, it's now...
Probability‑Adjusted DCF: Essential Tool for Valuing Pre‑Profit Biotechs
When thinking about valuing #biotechs, especially those which are not yet profitable, a probability adjusted discounted cash flow model is perhaps the most important methodology Though it too has drawbacks #DCF #PoS #learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus https://t.co/1sfTMkZ6kO
ISS Warns Against BP Dropping Climate Reporting, Cites Proxy Risk
Macro: ISS opposes BP’s move to retire climate reporting, highlighting governance vs ESG scrutiny. Key: precedent risk. Risk: reputational & proxy fights. Trade: avoid new BP longs before AGM. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Investors Should Prioritize Slow, Steady Wealth Growth
“Ninety-nine percent of investors shouldn’t try to get rich too quickly—it’s too risky. Try to get rich slowly.” — John Templeton https://t.co/WNkQILQKip
Use Portfolio‑Level Beta, Not Single‑Stock, for Reliable Risk
Beta shows market sensitivity but loses value in crises. R² reveals reliability—low R² implies idiosyncratic risk. Beta shifts with lookback. Trade insight: apply beta at portfolio level, not to single stocks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Fearful Dips Lead to Record-Breaking Market Gains
Opportunities : Lessons from Market Crashes 📉📈 1️⃣ Harshad Mehta Scam (1992) 🔻 Crash: 54% | ⏳ Recovery: 2Y 4M 2️⃣ Dotcom Bubble (2000) 🔻 Crash: 56% | ⏳ Recovery: 2Y 3M 3️⃣ Global Crisis (2008) 🔻 Crash: 61% | ⏳ Recovery: 1Y 8M 4️⃣ COVID Crash...
Brand Power No Longer Guarantees Retail Stock Success
Why I’m Staying Completely Away from Consumer Retail Stocks Nike, Lululemon, and LVMH Are Crumbling: Here’s Why Brand Power Alone No Longer Wins I currently have zero exposure to consumer retail stocks, and I plan to keep it that way. In my day...
BEHL Q4 2025
Beijing Enterprises Holdings (BEHL) just dropped its Q4 2025 results. Key figures on revenue, profit, and dividends are in. A look at performance across gas, water, and brewery segments. Earnings
Gold and Stocks Correcting From Overvalued Peaks
Gold & Stocks are in correction mode from Expensive valuations What could go wrong? https://t.co/BpD29sNDFY
Time Rewards Good Ideas, Punishes Bad Theses
"Patient" and "long-term" are not strategies. They're just words. If your thesis is wrong, being long-term only multiplies your problems. Time is your friend with good businesses and your enemy with bad ones.
MAG7 PEG Split: Nvidia, Avago, Meta Undervalued; Apple Overpriced
The MAG7 valuation breadown: PEG 2 is when things are getting expensive Attractive: • NVDA • AVGO • META Reasonable • AMZN • MSFT • GOOGL Expensive • AAPL
SoFi's Fintech Façade Hides Risky Unsecured Loan Engine
$SOFI's "fintech" mask hides a massive unsecured lending operation - Bank in disguise: lending ~90% of profits, NII >60% - Growth driven by risky unsecured loans in a saturated market - Aggressive accounting inflates earnings - Re-rate to bank multiples => 60%+ downside https://t.co/ZZ8DRGoMRM
Credibility Beats Hype: Buffett’s Long‑Term Value Investing
Warren Buffett proves that trust and credibility often matter more than fancy strategies. Learn why genuine, long-term value investing beats hype and how staying disciplined can help you build wealth over time.
Small‑mid Caps Hit Cheapest 30‑year Forward Multiples
Earnings for small and mid value are inflecting up into the cheapest forward multiples over the last 30 years. https://t.co/CrYWv1Fnns
Value Investing: Expensive Stocks Can Outperform Cheap Ones
Most investors think 'Value' means buying low P/E or low Book Value stocks. Buffett disagrees. For instance, growth is usually seen as a positive. But if a business has low returns on capital, growth is actually a value destroyer. Sometimes the 'expensive'...
Value Investing Remains Strong Amid Market Turmoil
This week in value: Warren Buffett in Omaha – 03/31/26 | Audio Only (Squawk Pod) Bill Ackman says it’s one of the best times in a long time to buy quality stocks (CNBC) When Everything Feels Out Of Control, Value Investing Doesn’t (Forbes) Relevance...
Top 10 S&P 500 Stocks' P/E Drops to 23
The 10 largest S&P 500 stocks' P/E has fallen to 23.0x.. it was above 30 just a few months ago JPMAM https://t.co/MthUHSpayR
Semiconductor Capex Surge Highlights Top Analyst Picks
Semiconductor Capex Rising. Analysts Name Top Stock Picks. https://t.co/gjaKdB4ex2 $AMAT $ASML $LRCX $AEIS $MKSI $ENTG
Tech Dividend ETF Offers Stable Income and Growth
Income investors, meet your tech solution. $TDIV targets profitable tech giants that pay & grow dividends, offering a smoother ride than pure growth funds. Ideal for long-term income + sector growth. Dividends
Investors Flee OpenAI for More Profitable Anthropic
🚨 Investors abandon OpenAI and flock to arch rival Anthropic | OpenAI’s shocking fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic ✅ OpenAI shares are falling out of favour on secondary markets — in some cases nearly impossible to sell —...