America: A Conglomerate, Buffett’s Ultimate Long‑Term Play
Buffett didn't call America a democracy or a superpower. He called it a conglomerate. 61 years. 80% ag to 2%. No master plan, just relentless adaptation. The founders didn't announce it. They just built it. That's not history. That's the best case study in long-term investing ever written.
April 2026 S&P Gains 10% Amid War, Optimism Returns
In April 2026, US equities saw light in the midst of war and chaos. The S&P 500 rose 10.43%, its best month since April 2020, coming of COVID lows, and the ERP for the index dropped to 4.37%. The market...
Berkshire's Cash Swells to $400B Amid 14 Quarters Net Selling
Buffett's Cash Position is now near $400B - 14 straight quarters of net selling*, Berkshire exited another $8B of stocks in Q1. *(bought ~$16B, sold ~$24B), data from official earnings/10-Q and 13F-related disclosures. https://t.co/btLzzDvF3e
Long‑term Berkshire Shares Deliver Compounding Returns
First question comes from "Warren from Omaha": “I've got nothing but time and Cherry Coke, and I want to know just so I have something to tell my fellow shareholders: Why should they hold their Berkshire shares for the long...
High EPS Growth Forecasts Often Precede Weak SPX Returns
These charts use consensus NTM Growth Rates and subsequent SPX Returns monthly going back to 1996 Current SPX EPS Growth Rate is 20% Purple Line Sample correlation is -21% Intuition to me makes sense that most of the time when growth rate expectations...
Choosing Between OpenAI and Anthropic: Long‑Term Bet
OpenAI and Anthropic both IPO. You have $100k to invest in only one of them and you’re going to let it ride for the next 5 years. Which one are you investing in, and why?
Profit Margin Forecasts Diverge From Recent S&P Trends
As @jessefelder rightly notes of a must see interview this week w/legendary investor @ptj_official “Forward profit margin expectations for the 493 are strikingly disconnected from the trend of recent years” (He, of course, refers to $SPX net of the Mag7) https://t.co/1s0EuVOTQr
AI Surge Powers Top Semiconductor Sub‑Themes, Refiner Gains
I asked @Deepvue AI to Identify specific leading themes and the strongest stocks within them Semiconductor Equipment & Test Fab tools, wafer processing, and test gear — critical for chip production ramps. Granular subset surging on AI capacity builds. - $ACLS, $ACMR, $AEIS,...
Analysts Trim Margins Now, Forecast Profit Surge Ahead
GS: Reflecting input cost pressures, analysts have trimmed margin estimates so far this season but continue to model a large increase in profitability in the coming quarters https://t.co/P5ImwpHHIm
Invest in S&P 500: $1 Beats Inflation to $9
Inflation is the silent thief. Over the last 30 years, it cut the value of $1 in half. But $1 invested in the S&P 500 became nearly $9 – AFTER adjusting for higher prices. That’s the power of ownership. https://t.co/gb8aVaDFxZ
SaaS Growth Rebounds While OpenAI Falls Short
This week turned out to be quite positive for the SaaS market. Although the median EV/Sales for SaaS companies is still near its lows at 3.79x, analyst-estimated NTM revenue growth stands at +14.2% YoY and has been increasing over the past...
Strong Results and Guidance Boost Earnings Outlook Confidence
GS: In addition to strong backward-looking results, both corporate guidance and analyst EPS revisions have signaled confidence in the forward outlook for earnings. https://t.co/FrP6WvQkfe
61% of S&P 500 Beat EPS Forecasts, Surpassing Norm
GS: 61% of S&P 500 companies have beaten consensus EPS expectations by more than a standard deviation of estimates, above the historical average of 49% https://t.co/LZixPHA1q7
Over Half of S&P 500 Post Q1 Results
GS: With the busiest week of the earnings season behind us, 63% of S&P 500 companies have now reported Q1 2026 results. https://t.co/KNUoyd1Kk6
US Auto Tariff Spike Threatens €30bn German Loss
US auto tariff shock hits Germany: IfW sees €15bn output hit now, €30bn longer-term as US raises auto tariff to 25%. Risk: export slowdown. Trade: reduce German auto equity exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
General Mills at 10‑Year Low: Opportunity or Value Trap?
General Mills ($GIS) is at a 10-year low. A stock that survived two World Wars, the Great Depression, the dot-com crash, a financial crisis, and a pandemic. 96 years of uninterrupted and growing dividends. So why would this time be different? Buying...
Phoenix Asia: Cheap Valuation, High Debt, Caution Advised
Phoenix Asia Holdings ($PHXHF) looks cheap on P/E, but underlying risks make it a hard pass. Infra spending might give a short-term lift, not a long-term fix. High debt & inconsistent earnings = stay cautious. Infrastructure
REITs Offer Stable AI Exposure Through Physical Infrastructure
REITs are the unsung heroes of the AI boom. Data centers, cell towers, and fiber networks can’t be outsmarted by software. Get AI exposure without the obsolescence risk. 🏗️📡 REITs
Buy Stocks Gradually, Not All‑In, to Capture Better Prices
Most investors treat buying a stock like flipping a switch. All in. One click. Full position. Seth Klarman calls that a mistake. Buy in pieces. Leave room to average down. Your best price might come after your first one.
Regime Filters Cause Divergent Momentum Returns Across Portfolios
Two momentum strategies in the same broader market, US equities, but with different results? The top matrix is the NASDAQ-specific Trade Long-Term portfolio. The lower matrix is the US Momentum portfolio, which focuses on the R-1000 universe. Why the difference? All our strategies...
Global Value and US Small‑Cap Stocks at Historic Lows
Rob Arnott: - Non-US is still a bargain - Value is still very cheap relative to growth, all over the world - Small-cap is the cheapest in history in the US relative to large caps, due to indexation https://t.co/jBF8K3ylis
Anthropic Set to Outpace 2027 Revenue Forecasts by 2026
Yep, I laid out the whole revenue growth thesis in this report. Even two months ago they were the fastest scaling enteprise software company ever. https://t.co/kHzGuJf03g And, even our bullish revenue forecasts were low as Anthropic will do in 2026 what...
Conservative Valuation: Zero Growth, Cash Flow, Downside Pricing
Most valuation models are optimism dressed up in spreadsheets. A conservative one runs on three rules: 1️⃣ Assume growth is zero until the business proves otherwise 2️⃣ Demand strong current earnings — cash flow, not promises 3️⃣ Price in the bad scenario. If it...
Earnings and Margins Set New Records, Fuel Bull Market
We've called these the dual tailwinds to this bull market for going on three years now. Higher earnings and profit margins always suggested this bull market wasn't over back in late March. Both are at new records again. https://t.co/8aMsnSwKYN
US Stocks Beat Gold as Inflation Hedge
“The best hedge against inflation has historically been US equities:” GS’s Mossavar-Rahmani. Gold isn’t a good hedge for inflation or deflation “so the idea that gold is something you need to have in your portfolio is something we totally disagree...
NTM Earnings Growth Soars 26.5% — Stocks May Be Undervalued
After the most recent earnings reports and guidance the NTM earnings growth expectations have skyrocketed to 26.5% YoY change. That's pretty unprecented in worlds that are NOT soon after a major earnings collapse. If we recognized half of...
Ignore Outdated Analysts; Focus on Future Earnings
Stocks price on future earnings Hope you didn't listen to a rearview analyst telling you that Schiller PE was alarmingly high.
Weekly Dip, but YTD up 19.25%
Dragonfly Capital Premium Top 10 Equal Weighted lost 2.1bp on the week using 80% of capital. YTD +19.25% https://t.co/mwVjeg6Lx7 https://t.co/iwExoZkmTK
Analysts Keep EPS Estimates Steady Amid Oil Price Worries
"Given concerns in the market about higher oil prices, have analysts lowered EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the second quarter? The answer is no." @FactSet https://t.co/Aqtc1XHQdn https://t.co/D5IRx5DPU0
Qualcomm Q2 FY26 Earnings Analyzed with Industry Experts
I unpacked @Qualcomm’s Q2 FY26 earnings with @EdLudlow and @CarolineHydeTV on @technology. Check out our conversation. https://t.co/qHtAJfYbMV
Uber's Robotaxi Gap Risks Falling Behind Waymo
Let's talk about $UBER because it's been on my mind alot recently... I'm assuming others are also debating these questions in their spare time 😏 Last weekend I took a Waymo and it was a wonderful experience so it's fair to...
XHR Q1 Beats, Guidance Raised; Initiate Long
Macro: XHR Q1 RevPAR +7.4%, EBITDA +17.9%, guidance raised. Drivers: Sunbelt luxury mix, accretive capex. Risk: 4.8x leverage. Trade: initiate long on pullbacks to $15.75. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Big Tech Funding Capex by Burning Free Cash
Under the radar and bears watching: Forward earnings expansion financed by FCF destruction. “Alphabet: $73B FCF in 2025, guiding $180–190B capex in 2026. Meta raised its 2026 range to $125–145B against $44B trailing FCF. Amazon TTM FCF compressed ~95% to...
First Solar's CuRe Launch Fuels Margin Expansion
First Solar reaffirms 2026 guidance as CuRe launch and record India sales drive Q1 margin expansion #energysky -- via pv magazine usa: https://t.co/DfMR1ukrDi
Historic LEI/CEI Low Signals Recession, Cyclicals Set to Crash
The ratio of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) to Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) showing the steepest decline in the entire history of the metric and now at a level typically seen during or just before recessions. Small/mid + cyclicals rip hard once...
Which High‑Yield ETFs Can Sustain Massive Payouts?
Yearly dividend income with $1,000,000 invested: - JEPI: $82,900 - ICAP: $93,300 - OVL: $105,000 - JEPQ: $104,300 - SPYI: $119,000 - QQQI: $113,900 Which of these ETFs do you think can sustain their massive dividend payments?
SoFi Posts Record Growth, yet Shares Tumble 15%
$SOFI just printed the cleanest fintech beat I've seen in years Net revenue up 43%, hit 1.1B for the first time Net income 167M EBITDA up 62% 18 straight Rule of 40 quarters Stock dropped 15% the same day Why? Two reasons that are actually fair...
Value Investing Outperforms: Owner Earnings Explained in Q1 Webcast
This week in value: Why value investing usually outperforms (LiveWire) Causeway International Value Q1 2026 Webcast (Causeway) What is Owner Earnings? (The Warren Buffett Guide) (OSV)
Hold ITW Now, Wait for 2026 Entry Point
ITW’s a solid hold for now, but 2026 looks tricky. Tariffs and macro headwinds could pressure earnings, so new buyers might want to wait for a better entry point. Patience is key here. IndustrialInvesting
Google Cloud Poised to Reach 70% of AWS Size Next Year
"Back in 1Q’20, Google Cloud was only 27.2% of AWS revenue. Six years later, it has become 53.3% of AWS revenue...I find it quite remarkable that Google Cloud may be ~70-75% of AWS size by next year." $GOOG $AMZN https://t.co/DKmcM2dWJU
10‑Q Filings Reveal Earnings Details Beyond Hype
It’s been a week of hyperscaler earnings. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google all reported. Not surprisingly, the big capex spending got the headlines. But as I was taught as a young reporter, a press release is just that, a press release....
Wall Street Sees BMY Lift, BIIB Rise, REGN Uncertainty
Latest snapshot of Wall Street's take on a trio of earnings reports, from @ByJonGardner and @realJacobBell Bristol Myers’ legacy lift, Biogen’s blue skies and Regeneron’s murky outlook https://t.co/PnGb0o93WL $BIIB $BMY $REGN
Intel's 130x EPS Valuation Ignores Stagnant Growth
$INTC is trading at an absurd 130X 2027 EPS on just 20% datacenter growth but who's keeping track am I right? This stock is going nowhere for 10 years.
Patience Beats Hype: Buy Low, Hold Long
It’s tempting to buy stocks that are pumping right now. But ask yourself first: Are you swing trading? Are you planning to sell soon for a quick gain? If not, chasing pumps usually ends badly. My biggest winners (5–20x) weren’t bought during hype. I bought...
Nintendo Valuation a Steal Despite Rising Memory Costs
50% off its highs, 40% below Switch 2 release levels, and back to 2020 levels? Here's why $NTDOY's valuation looks like a steal, even with rising memory costs (link in bio).
SPX/Gold Ratio Likely Keeps Falling Through 2026
SPX/Gold Trend Is Down; Can It Continue in 2026? The S&P 500 in gold ounces breached 2.0 support in 2024, and the next big driver may be the SPX. At 1.58 on April 31, the SPX/gold ratio has bounced from 1.29...
Conviction, Not Ego: Buffett's Guide to Focused Investing
Buffett doesn't say "diversify everything." He says don't test the river's depth with both feet. There's a difference between a concentrated bet and a reckless one. One is conviction. The other is ego.
Estée Lauder Posts 40% EPS Surge, Beats Estimates
$EL: nice results this morning w 40% EPS growth and net sales up 5% with GM beat and up 140bps y/y. China g USD and $1B in sales in Asia Pacific. Raised estimates. Beauty Reimagined strategy taking hold.
Interim Data Hint Weaker PFS; Selloff Caps Losses
Leerink's Daina Graybosch on $SMMT "... In our base case scenario of the company’s likely statistical design choices and enrollment timing, not hitting statistical significance at this interim suggests a degradation in PFS Hazard Ratio (HR) of ~10 percentage points...
Indra's Space Division Targets Over €400M Revenue, Iris2 Confirmed
.@IndraCompany: @Hispasat @hisdesat swell Q1 results; space division rev to be EUR 400M+ this year; @defis_eu #Iris2 "is real" following cost/sched/KPI negs that ended April 30. Defis: we'll announce results 'in due course.' @SES_Satellites @Eutelsat. https://t.co/uHyfoiggVO https://t.co/DcCAj3XunD