Profitability Drives SaaS Premium Multiples Over Growth
SaaS valuations aren’t random — they cluster around growth + profitability Forward EV/Gross Profit vs NTM growth shows: • Higher growth → higher multiples (expected) • But operating margin is the real filter • Profitable names (green) consistently trade at premium $NET — 48x EV/GP at 29% growth Market pricing in category dominance + long runway $APP — high growth 38% with premium multiple Ad + AI monetization narrative driving rerating Investing
Time Wins: Markets Rise After Every Bear
Stick to long term plans. $spx monthly flows win. 529 plans can pay for college Markets take the stairs up and the elevator down." This chart proves it beyond any doubt. S&P 500. Every bull and bear market since 1949. Bull markets: → Average...
Fewer Investment Decisions, Better Business Quality Focus
Chuck Akre on decision-making "The fewer investment decisions we make, the less exposure we have to making mistakes. Obviously, these decisions that are made must be correct, which is why we spend so much time trying to understand the quality of...
Asset-Light Myth: Investments Now Hit Income, Not Balance Sheet
"I always thought this idea of asset light was a bit of a myth because if you're just laser focused on investment, you're just realizing the investment was not in the balance sheet as it was historically, it's now...
Probability‑Adjusted DCF: Essential Tool for Valuing Pre‑Profit Biotechs
When thinking about valuing #biotechs, especially those which are not yet profitable, a probability adjusted discounted cash flow model is perhaps the most important methodology Though it too has drawbacks #DCF #PoS #learnbiotechinvesting #investing #BiotechPrometheus https://t.co/1sfTMkZ6kO
ISS Warns Against BP Dropping Climate Reporting, Cites Proxy Risk
Macro: ISS opposes BP’s move to retire climate reporting, highlighting governance vs ESG scrutiny. Key: precedent risk. Risk: reputational & proxy fights. Trade: avoid new BP longs before AGM. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Investors Should Prioritize Slow, Steady Wealth Growth
“Ninety-nine percent of investors shouldn’t try to get rich too quickly—it’s too risky. Try to get rich slowly.” — John Templeton https://t.co/WNkQILQKip
Use Portfolio‑Level Beta, Not Single‑Stock, for Reliable Risk
Beta shows market sensitivity but loses value in crises. R² reveals reliability—low R² implies idiosyncratic risk. Beta shifts with lookback. Trade insight: apply beta at portfolio level, not to single stocks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Fearful Dips Lead to Record-Breaking Market Gains
Opportunities : Lessons from Market Crashes 📉📈 1️⃣ Harshad Mehta Scam (1992) 🔻 Crash: 54% | ⏳ Recovery: 2Y 4M 2️⃣ Dotcom Bubble (2000) 🔻 Crash: 56% | ⏳ Recovery: 2Y 3M 3️⃣ Global Crisis (2008) 🔻 Crash: 61% | ⏳ Recovery: 1Y 8M 4️⃣ COVID Crash...
Brand Power No Longer Guarantees Retail Stock Success
Why I’m Staying Completely Away from Consumer Retail Stocks Nike, Lululemon, and LVMH Are Crumbling: Here’s Why Brand Power Alone No Longer Wins I currently have zero exposure to consumer retail stocks, and I plan to keep it that way. In my day...
BEHL Q4 2025
Beijing Enterprises Holdings (BEHL) just dropped its Q4 2025 results. Key figures on revenue, profit, and dividends are in. A look at performance across gas, water, and brewery segments. Earnings
Gold and Stocks Correcting From Overvalued Peaks
Gold & Stocks are in correction mode from Expensive valuations What could go wrong? https://t.co/BpD29sNDFY
Time Rewards Good Ideas, Punishes Bad Theses
"Patient" and "long-term" are not strategies. They're just words. If your thesis is wrong, being long-term only multiplies your problems. Time is your friend with good businesses and your enemy with bad ones.
MAG7 PEG Split: Nvidia, Avago, Meta Undervalued; Apple Overpriced
The MAG7 valuation breadown: PEG 2 is when things are getting expensive Attractive: • NVDA • AVGO • META Reasonable • AMZN • MSFT • GOOGL Expensive • AAPL
SoFi's Fintech Façade Hides Risky Unsecured Loan Engine
$SOFI's "fintech" mask hides a massive unsecured lending operation - Bank in disguise: lending ~90% of profits, NII >60% - Growth driven by risky unsecured loans in a saturated market - Aggressive accounting inflates earnings - Re-rate to bank multiples => 60%+ downside https://t.co/ZZ8DRGoMRM
Credibility Beats Hype: Buffett’s Long‑Term Value Investing
Warren Buffett proves that trust and credibility often matter more than fancy strategies. Learn why genuine, long-term value investing beats hype and how staying disciplined can help you build wealth over time.
Small‑mid Caps Hit Cheapest 30‑year Forward Multiples
Earnings for small and mid value are inflecting up into the cheapest forward multiples over the last 30 years. https://t.co/CrYWv1Fnns
Value Investing: Expensive Stocks Can Outperform Cheap Ones
Most investors think 'Value' means buying low P/E or low Book Value stocks. Buffett disagrees. For instance, growth is usually seen as a positive. But if a business has low returns on capital, growth is actually a value destroyer. Sometimes the 'expensive'...
Value Investing Remains Strong Amid Market Turmoil
This week in value: Warren Buffett in Omaha – 03/31/26 | Audio Only (Squawk Pod) Bill Ackman says it’s one of the best times in a long time to buy quality stocks (CNBC) When Everything Feels Out Of Control, Value Investing Doesn’t (Forbes) Relevance...
Top 10 S&P 500 Stocks' P/E Drops to 23
The 10 largest S&P 500 stocks' P/E has fallen to 23.0x.. it was above 30 just a few months ago JPMAM https://t.co/MthUHSpayR
Semiconductor Capex Surge Highlights Top Analyst Picks
Semiconductor Capex Rising. Analysts Name Top Stock Picks. https://t.co/gjaKdB4ex2 $AMAT $ASML $LRCX $AEIS $MKSI $ENTG
Tech Dividend ETF Offers Stable Income and Growth
Income investors, meet your tech solution. $TDIV targets profitable tech giants that pay & grow dividends, offering a smoother ride than pure growth funds. Ideal for long-term income + sector growth. Dividends
Investors Flee OpenAI for More Profitable Anthropic
🚨 Investors abandon OpenAI and flock to arch rival Anthropic | OpenAI’s shocking fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic ✅ OpenAI shares are falling out of favour on secondary markets — in some cases nearly impossible to sell —...
Blue Owl’s Credit Woes Mask Hidden Asset Value
$OWL hit all-time lows today after record redemption requests. The credit business deserves every bit of this. But Blue Owl also has a GP Stakes business and a real assets business that have zero direct connection to software loans or BDC redemptions. Ran...
Annual Drawdowns Are Inevitable—Embrace Them for Stock Premium
A drawdown of some magnitude happens every year. Expect, prepare for it, and embrace it. This is the reason why you earn a premium for owning stocks. https://t.co/uLbuAmZ29E
MercadoLibre Hits Lowest Valuation in Years
This month's long-form research report MercadoLibre: Cheapest In Years $MELI Read it at Emerging Moats (link in bio) https://t.co/BbrTaKu2SW
Check Point's Discounted Stock Offers Compelling Cybersecurity Value
Check Point stock trades at a big discount to cybersecurity peers. New analysis argues its elite platform, strong profits, & cloud shift make it a compelling value play. $CHKP Cybersecurity
Active Allocation Needed: Three Sells, One Buy
I just released a portfolio update. Four moves. Three Sells. One Buy. One strategy. I am positioning for a period where active capital allocation and a strong stomach will be the primary drivers of performance. Read the full breakdown of...
Invest Simply: Business Moat, Trustworthy Management, High‑Return Reinvestment
Most investors make things too complicated. Chuck Akre simplified it down to just three things: 1️⃣ The Business: High ROE and a "moat" you can see from space. 2️⃣ The Management: Integrity + Skill. They treat you like a partner, not a...
True Quality Takes Decades, Not One-Year Gains
Most investors definition of a quality business or quality management has nothing to do with quality - it’s simply the stock they own that is up the most in the last 12-months. Quality is a label that can only be earned...
Okeanis Eco Tankers: Geopolitical
Okeanis Eco Tankers ($OET) is now a geopolitical play. Strong fleet & finances, but its boom hinges on Red Sea disruptions extending voyages. A top-tier bet on volatile trade routes. shipping
HPS SaaS
HPS: SaaS inflection—FY25 rev +22%, backlog +89%, recurring 72%. Drivers: SaaS ramp, backlog, AI. Risks: FX and H1 margin drag. Trade: Accumulate on dips to 520 MAD. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Tesla Expands Japan Footprint, Boosting Model Y L Appeal
Macro Tesla targets Japan imports lead via store & service buildout. 35→60 stores, service 14→30; Model Y L adds family appeal. Risk: slow EV uptake, German-brand share. Trade: buy TSLA. — Viktor Kopylov PhD CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Coke Now Outprices Microsoft, Defying Gates' Logic
Bill Gates once argued that tech stocks should trade at lower multiples than consumer staples, due to disruption risk. Nearly 30 years later, $KO is trading at a premium to $MSFT https://t.co/kvxe5UxICA
Buy Signal Returns as S&P 500 Drops 9%
The S&P 500 just pulled back 9.1% from its record high. Sentiment indicators are flashing the same buy signal that nailed the bottom last April. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/GcAng779YL
Buy Fear, Sell Euphoria: Invest Amid Uncertainty Now
The best time to invest in businesses is when there is widespread fear and uncertainty. It pays to buy fear and sell euphoria. The fear is very elevated right now, the risk/reward is favourable.
Crisis-Driven Growth Stock Dip Signals Buying Opportunity
The geopolitical conflict has caused growth stocks to come under severe pressure and valuations are now compressed. The near-term may be choppy but historically periods of extreme fear and crisis have turned out to be buying opportunities. This time should...
Sleep Soundly: Grow Portfolio without Stock Picking
If I wanted to grow my portfolio without picking a single stock and still sleeping well at night, here's exactly what I'd do. (No gatekeeping)
Follow Pro Steps to Spot Winning Stocks
For most investors, a well-diversified portfolio of funds will do the trick. But if you want to try to identify winners like the pros on Wall Street, there are steps you can take. https://t.co/6RP6PY8ebH
Yardeni Confirms Market Bottom Amid Thursday Volatility
Ed Yardeni tells CNBC the market bottom is in. He's sticking to his thesis despite Thursday's volatility. https://t.co/rnvPZiNW7A
SpaceX's IPO Valuation Skyrockets at Astronomical Multiples
SpaceX trying to go public at 80x forward sales, 500x forward earnings, and 125x forward EV/EBITDA multiple https://t.co/rk6SKuODJy
Markets Rise Amid Volatility; Seize Long-Term Opportunities
Despite the volatility this week: $SPX +3.4%, $DJIA +3% and $CCMP +4.5%. Solid econ data as well. Volatility is expected to continue until war ends but if you wait for certainty you will miss some great LT...
Defy Base Rates Only When Conviction Is Proven
"If you have a strong conviction that they're gonna do something other than the base rate, then you better be very, very good in making that assumption or calculation." Base rates usually win. But the great companies defy them. I thought...
Small Caps Reclaim Long‑Term Edge Over S&P
Small cap stocks outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 12 months (first chart). After bottoming against the S&P 500 mid-November 2025, small caps have staged a sharp recovery. This is in line with the long-term regime of smalls > bigs (second...
Gold‑Bitcoin Momentum Converges, Undermining 60/20
My 60/20/20 model has not been spared by the current risk-off episode, as weakness in gold and international equities have offset any benefit from my underweight to bonds. Looking at the momentum curves below, it looks like the “jaws” between...
Visa at $299: Strong Fundamentals Signal Buy
Deep Dive Full Thesis: Is VISA a BUY at $299? Visa just hit its 52-week low at $299, despite record Q1 revenue and a rock-solid 4.1% FCF yield. This is one of my all-time favorite companies: a true cash-printing machine with an...
Tesla's 186× PE Stays High Amid Falling Earnings
$TSLA trades at 186x earnings. Given declining earnings, the PE will remain high unless the stock declines, which might be hard for some to comprehend. https://t.co/wc9fE48KQC
Fed Model Returns: Rates Matching Equities Threaten Stocks
One of my main themes since the rate reset in 2022 is that the Fed model is “back.” The Fed model, popularized by Alan Greenspan during the 1980’s, holds that when the risk-free rate (Treasuries) is competitive with risky assets...
Short‑Term Losses Mask Long‑Term Defense Innovation Gains
Given reports this week that Pete Hegseth tried to buy defense stocks prior to launching the Iran war, much attention has been paid to the failure of that trade. The index he attempted to buy, IDEF, has fallen ~13% over...
Magic Formula Reveals Top 50 High‑Cap Value Picks
Now that most companies reported, lets run Greenblatt's Magic Formula and check what companies it returns. I regularly find quite a few interesting ones. These are the top 50 stocks that the formula churned out, based on a market cap of >$50m...