LSDI Fees Often Outweigh Tax-Loss Harvest Savings
"For a typical investor, the fees paid to a leveraged long/short direct indexing (LSDI) tax-loss harvesting manager eat up most of the tax savings. In our base case, the investor pays more than half as much in fees as the taxes she was trying to avoid, and ends up with a lower post-tax expected return than if she’d just sold, paid the tax, bought an index fund and moved on." via @ElmWealth https://t.co/RWJcL1JLii
HROW: Profitable, Cheap, Fast‑Growing Stock with Upside Catalysts
Just re-sharing this in case you missed my thoughts on $HROW last night... if you're a long term investor and looking for companies with asymmetric upside potential then this is a name that should definitely be on your watchlist. $HROW...
Now Tracking Revenue Growth Across Every Fund Portfolio
i can't believe i didn't have this before, but i can now see (and show) revenue growth across each fund's portfolio https://t.co/Jgmf7wORWv
Berkshire, Walmart Diverge Sharply Nov‑Feb, Biggest in 5 Years
Berkshire and Walmart have typically had a similar “shape” of relative performance vs the S&P 500. Nov-Feb was easily the biggest divorce in past 5 years. $BRK $WMT https://t.co/NP54QHbFzJ
Nygren Sees Adobe Undervalued, Buys at Discount
Bill Nygren buys $ADBE in Q1 "We believe that the company retains durable competitive advantages across multiple growing markets, and that recent skepticism has created an opportunity to invest in this highly profitable and well-managed category leader at a meaningful...
Fewer Decisions, More Conviction Drive Real Success
It's easy to conflate activity with progress 76% of family offices expect to make ten transactions or fewer each year Warren Buffett famously told business school students to imagine a punch card with only 20 slots, representing every investment decision they'd be...
Consensus Mirrors Management, Yet Big Firms Miss 15%
"The numbers are revealing. By mid-March 2025, at the conclusion of Q4 2024 reporting, 188 S&P 500 Index companies had issued full-year EPS guidance. At that point, sell-side estimates were, on average, within just 0.3% of the midpoint of guidance....
Spirit Airlines May Cease Flights This Week, Sell Assets
Spirit Airlines Could Stop Flying This Week And Sell Off Its Assets - View from the Wing https://t.co/145CNkriZg
Next Bull Run: 18‑Month Cycle, Top Opportunities
🚨 WEBINAR ALERT: The Long Short Report “Sweet Tooth – Sweeter 2026: Riding the Next Bull Run” 📌 Is the correction over? What’s driving the next 18-month cycle? 📈 Where are the biggest opportunities (metals, agro, energy)? ⚠️What risks still matter (rates, dollar, geopolitics)? 🎯Nifty outlook:...
Mega‑caps Control Nearly One‑Fifth of S&P 500
Every S&P 500 Company in One Giant Chart Key Takeaways: 👉 This chart shows all 500 companies in the S&P 500, sized by market cap and grouped by sector. 👉 Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft alone make up about 18% of the $57.6 trillion...
Strong Growth, High Cash, but Overvalued Post‑IPO
#TBTG "Revenue and Profit growth exceeding expectations". Net Cash £40.8m. ShareScope has fwd p/e 19.8 falling to 14.2; quite low rating if cash stripped out. Recent IPO and interesting. I don't hold.
Only Two Times Since 1990: Record Close, Few 52‑Week Highs
Just 2 sessions since 1990 with fewer S&P 500 constituents at 52w highs when the benchmark index closed at a record than yesterday: -Nov 13, 2020 -March 21, 2000 (h/t to @scottcharts for the inspo) https://t.co/52dt1frKOz
AVG Secures £10m Nuclear Orders, Shares Surge 7%
#AVG won "more than £10m" in Nuclear orders since Jan 1st. ShareScope showing fwd p/e 19.1 falling to 15.5 and fwd Divvy 0.9% each of next 2 years, BEFORE 7% jump today and the News. New ATH and a chart...
BOOM's Growth vs High Forward P/E Raises Rating Doubts
#BOOM Update reads well with decent growth in Revenue and Profit. ShareScope showing fwd p/e 39.3 falling to 27.4, and no Dividend. Does it justify the rating? I don't hold.
EasyJet Predicts Larger H1 Loss Amid Middle East Conflict
EasyJet warns of bigger first-half loss, lower bookings as Middle East war upends business https://t.co/FeDiVpr1tN
Margin Expansion Remains Core Strategy for Companies
Holy GMs. I have said this many times but the main storyline for many companies remains — margin expansion.
Record Buffett Indicator Flags Historic U.S. Market Overvaluation
The Warren Buffett Indicator just hit its highest level in history, signalling the most overvalued U.S. stock market on record. This is why Buffett is holding nearly $400 billion in cash much of it in Treasuries and now owns...
Low Multiples Offer Expansion; High Multiples Invite Compression
Guess what, when your portfolio trades at 37x cash flow, multiple compression is a major risk. That’s why my portfolio trades at 3.7x cash flow, so multiple expansion is a major opportunity.
Seeking Interest for Weekly Shadow Activist Stock Analyses
Who would like to see regular Senjin Capital analysis of “shadow activist” ideas? That is, where existing activists are involved, but may not have said anything publicly about their thesis? I have seen some complaints that there aren’t enough actionable stock ideas...
Consistent SIP Beats Higher Returns Over Time
₹1L SIP ~ ₹22.6 Cr ₹1.25L SIP ~ ₹28.3 Cr ₹1.5L SIP ~ ₹33.9 Cr ₹1.75L SIP ~ ₹39.6 Cr ₹2L SIP ~ ₹45.2 Cr ₹2.25L SIP ~ ₹50.9 Cr ₹2.5L SIP ~ ₹56.5 Cr Assuming 10% return for 30 years. Same market. Lower return. Still massive wealth. Lesson: Return matters…...
Invest Your Salary, Retire Early with Passive Gains
Last year, my portfolio made me more money than my old job at Deloitte. I worked 55 billable hours during busy season vs just buying ETFs like $VTI and waiting for the same $$$ gain Turn your active income into investments so...
Value Investors Finally Facing Overlooked Market Reality
A reality most value investors choose to ignore but I feel this is finally starting to change https://t.co/IcebLm2h9e
Graham's Edge: Process Over Story, Let Statistics Win
Graham's edge wasn't genius. It was a process: 1️⃣ Find broadly undervalued securities, not one "perfect" pick 2️⃣ Let margin of safety do the work, not your story 3️⃣ Repeat until the math wins Most investors want a great story. Graham wanted great odds. Stories...
Stay Invested: Best Market Days Follow the Worst
The S&P 500 just ripped higher, a 99.8th percentile 10-day run. And this is exactly why time in the market beats timing the market. Because the market doesn’t send invitations before its best days. Miss just a handful of them, the explosive rebounds,...
JetBlue Founder Predicts Bankruptcy, No Buyers This Year
JetBlue Founder Warns The Airline May Go Bankrupt This Year — And Says Nobody Will Buy It - View from the Wing https://t.co/fFvy77qBrc
Beta Tweaks and Cash Raise Boost Portfolio Performance
Tweaks to beta yesterday (raising cash) Sold some VEA -0.3% Today GSG -0.3% Today GLD -1.2% Today SPY +0.8% Today Net net those worked.
Diversifiers Shine as Equities and Bonds Re‑correlate
With equities and bonds positively correlated again (a déjà vu to 2022), it’s good to see that the group of diversifiers that I have in my hypothetical 60/20/20 model have been doing their job. The chart below shows the “crawling”...
Small and Mid‑Cap Yields Surpass Large Caps
Asset location implications: Dividend yields are now higher in small and mid caps vs. large caps https://t.co/UPCV1LiXSB
Thorndike's Power Ratio Reveals Tiny Firms' Extreme Multiples
I like Thorndike's Power Ratio: TTM revenue growth rate divided by EV/EBITDA Multiple. PE has averaged 0.75x. Search funds 2-3x. You can get some wildly high numbers in small public companies. What's the highest you've seen?
Liquidity Surge Signals Tech and Crypto Rally Ahead
The Everything Code suggests that over time the NDX has a 97% correlation with GMI Total Global Liquidity. Total Liquidity is at all time highs. NDX is following. We have been long tech stocks in GMI (and RV Pro) since Dec 2022...
Starlink Drives 75%‑80% of SpaceX’s $1.75T Value
Here's what most people miss about SpaceX: 75–80% of its value isn't rockets. It's Starlink. The satellite internet business that nobody believed in is now the backbone of a $1.75 trillion company.
Equities Rally on Hope, Valuations Still Under Pressure
Equity markets gapped higher last week on hopes that the negotiations in Pakistan would lead to some sort of détente. The week closed with an S&P 500 index at 6816, a mere 2.6% below its all-time high set on January...
Amid Volatile Headlines, Revisit Your Investment Thesis
It’s getting increasingly challenging to write my WAAR these past few Sundays, given how much the headlines keep lurching back and forth. Truce one day, threats of extinction the next, and back and forth we go. My inclination these days is to...
Luxury Giants Face Structural Demand Reset
Hermes $RMS just cratered 13% at one point of today's trading session. Kering is struggling to find its footing. LVMH is struggling too. The luxury "black hole" is officially here. We aren't just seeing a soft quarter here and there;...
Aztec Minerals Strikes 2,676 G/T Silver, Still Undervalued
A juicy 2,676 gram-meter #silver hit for @AztecMinerals in another step-out hole at Tombstone, the footprint continuing to grow. As JV says from the tour last week, consensus from every analyst was “this stock is deeply undervalued." Buy window still...
Quality Small Caps Win Long-Term, Junk Rallies Occasionally
We're in a late-cycle regime where quality still dominates—but with intermittent speculative rallies. Chart shows ratio of $IWM (Russell 2000, broader, lower-quality small caps) v $VIOO (S&P 600, higher-quality, profitable small caps). → When it falls, quality small caps outperform junky small...
OKLO’s Pipeline and Cash Boost Hope Despite Execution Risk
Someone on Reddit asked "is there any hope for $OKLO ?" It's up 9% today Quick fundamental check: - 14 GW signed customer pipeline (Switch, Meta, Equinix) - $1.23B cash with minimal debt - Board just got overhauled with nuclear/energy veterans - Pre-revenue but funded through...
Check Your Portfolio Against Your Sleeping Point
How often do you inventory your investments to get a good idea of how invested you are, in what, your net, exposure to specific risks etc? I did this last week & found I was a bit more invested than my...
Bank of America Shines in Higher‑for‑longer Rate Environment
Thinking of playing higher-for-longer rates? Analysis says Bank of America ($BAC) could be a top pick due to its unique sensitivity. Strong deposit base & digital edge are key. Investing
Pershing Square Admits Nike Turnaround Far Tougher than Anticipated
Pershing Square: "With Nike, we did not understand how much the prior CEO had really damaged the business, and how heavy the turnaround was going to be." https://t.co/YaLEkVXfp1
SE Outpaces TikTok, Valued at 7x 2028 EBITDA
$SE -45% on TikTok + margin fears looks overdone - TikTok growth is slowing and expanding the mkt more than taking share, while SE still leads in scale - Pricing is rational and reinvestment is offensive, not defensive - ~7x ’28 EBITDA with...
FDA Peptide Meeting Signals $100B Market Boom
I wish this FDA meeting to discuss peptides was happening a little sooner but I'm glad it's finally on the calendar so we don't have to keep guessing. Looks like they're going to start with 7 peptides (BPC-157, TB-500, KPV, Mots-C,...
Active Stock Pickers Underperform When Deviating From Benchmarks
Man, this is some tough findings for active mgmt: basically the more stock pickers tried to differentiate from the benchmark the worse they lagged. Passive flows are part of the story but also the dramatic shifts in sector/size leadership too....
Mike Mayo Predicts Citi's Restructuring Will Boost Stock
JUST IN: Mike Mayo holds Citi as his top stock pick, expecting its restructuring to lift the share price.
TSM Boosts 2026 Outlook to More Bullish
With $TSM tonight, what I wrote in January on 2026 outlook is a good primer. May even be more bullish of a year than we anticiapted even two montsh ago. https://t.co/C0GIvgrEll
Pagaya's AI Lending Grows; Bull Case Still Viable
Pagaya stock has been crushed, but the bull case isn't dead. Their AI lending network is still scaling with big partners. The goal? Reach profitability as macro headwinds ease. High-risk, high-reward bet. Fintech
Canada’s EWC Outperforms U.S. Indices Amid Market Rise
as you look at the U.S. stock market rising, don't forget those relative trends, which favour Canada $EWC, no matter U.S. equal weight $RSP or cap-weighted $SPX https://t.co/50q7XPZYxo
Free Monthly Insights on Secular Business Trends
Check out our Insights page below 👇 Our FREE research on secular business trends and hot investment themes - new article updated every month. https://t.co/PSMrtXXOGR
Unlock Malaysia Banking Secrets & RM1M Blueprint
Join us on 9 May for an exclusive investing deep-dive, in collab with Shinji Ong of The Futurizts @thefuturizts What’s on the Agenda: •Malaysia Banking sector: Mastering fundamentals, key metrics, & reliable passive income strategies—by me, Azha •The RM1 mil Blueprint: Shinji’s personal...
Shopify’s Full‑Stack Merchant Moat Fuels Double‑Digit Margins
Founder-led software names with strong economic moats to watch 👇 $SHOP | Forward P/S 10.46x Shopify is monetizing the full merchant stack. Not just storefronts. Payments, credit, cross-border, logistics. Merchant solutions now drive ~75% of revenue. Take rate expands with every transaction layer...