Intangibles Outvalue Factories; Investors Must Adapt
Intangible assets—things like brand reputation, proprietary knowledge, and organizational capabilities—have become more valuable than physical factories and equipment...how are investors capturing this information? by @larryswedroe https://t.co/CW1mUsiweK https://t.co/Hu32LLmXw8
Public Record Undermines Lazy Valuation, Raises Premium Bid Stakes
New on $MAPS: I think the public record is now strong enough to reject lazy, tape-anchored valuation—and strong enough to make a future “premium” bid answer much harder questions than management might like. Linked below. 1/2 https://t.co/ApS7y2tctJ
Smart Strategies to Diversify Concentrated Stock Positions
My conversation with Wes Gray (@alphaarchitect) & Brent Sullivan (@TaxAlphaInsider) on how to handle concentrated stock positions. We cover: • 351 to ETF conversions • Tax managed long/short • Direct indexing • Exchange funds 🍎 Apple: https://t.co/8EyAQJRS2b 🍏 Spotify: https://t.co/2KzvgNXoiD 📺 YouTube: https://t.co/8ibUEisaZM
Stocks Were Once Held for Years, Not Days
Im so old, I recall the average stock holding time period was several years https://t.co/bi8akmSzNq
Buying Now Equals Holding All Along, No Extra Gain
Wrong analysis. For example, If person sitting on cash invests on Monday then from Monday evening onwards he is in the same position as the one who was holding the same stock all through. There is no additional benefit in buying...
Time Horizon, Not Volatility, Determines Investment Risk
The biggest risk in investing isn’t volatility. It’s a short time horizon. Worst S&P 500 annualized returns since 1928: 1 year: -44% 5 years: -13% 10 years: -2% 20 years: +2% 30 years: +8% The longer you stay invested, the smaller the risk of a bad outcome. https://t.co/E6zeCB4Ir8
Age‑Based Stock Rule Costs More Than 60/40
Most investors follow a rule nobody ever properly tested: subtract your age from 100, put the rest in stocks. A new Yale study finally ran the numbers. Following that rule costs the equivalent of 2% of lifetime consumption. A static 60/40...
Japan's Corporate Overhaul Fuels Small‑cap Upside, Software Bounce
Interview with Jamie Halse of Senjin Capital. - Japan is in the midst of a corporate transformation - Significant upside in the small cap segment - Hitachi, Nintendo and Open House: better-managed companies in Japan - Software stocks are beaten down, IT services...
VIEs Aren’t Simple: Mainland Investment Doesn’t Guarantee Safety
1/ Michael Burry made the argument that VIEs are fine because Mainland Chinese invest in them as well I think there's more nuance to it than that
Size Positions by Risk, Quality, Not Just Upside
Position sizing is more art than science. I don't just size based on upside potential. I think about business quality, how bad things could get if I'm wrong, and how likely the thesis is to play out. The upside matters,...
US Stock Market $1 Trillion Cheaper—Rethink Your Strategy
CHANGE your investing mindset: 🇺🇸 The US stock market nearly $1 trillion less expensive today.
MELI Plunges 35% Despite Booming Growth Metrics
MELI is down 🔻35% from its 52-week high, meanwhile: • 25+ quarter of >30% revenue growth • 83 million unique active buyers (+24%) • Total payment volume of $83B (+42%) And now trading at its lowest valuation ever.
Our Portfolios Cheapened, Outperformed as Market Overvalued
"We’ve been operating in what we see as an anomalous market environment for the past two years; specifically, the momentum-driven U.S. market has been one of the most extreme in history. [This] has also created compelling company-specific opportunities moving forward. [O]ur portfolios’...
Record Hedge Levels Signal Potential Upside Rally
This chart, which has been doing the rounds, shows one of the most hedged equity markets in years. That usually means fear is already priced in, and the risk asymmetry increasingly favors upside surprises rather than further panic selling. This chart...
Eos Energy’s Ambitious Targets Clash With Execution Lag
Eos Energy Enterprises ⚡ 🔋 🇺🇸 $EOSE +244% 3Y 🟢 -61% 3M 🔴 🔴 🔴 - Non-Existent Margins - $702M Backlog - 116% 2028 Revenue CAGR - 234% 2028 EBITDA Increase - Demanding Valuation - 33% Below Consensus Price Target Strong outlook, but execution has struggled. Can the company deliver...
Buffett Chooses Stocks Over Real Estate for Liquidity
Investing legend Warren Buffett explains why he often prefers the stock market over real estate. Stocks can be bought or sold in seconds, while real estate deals can take months of negotiations. A powerful lesson in value investing, smart capital...
Master Industry DD in 5 Minutes with Three Key Questions
A 5-minute industry DD framework for any new ticker: ✅ Geography: Is the competition local or global? ✅ Entrants: How high is the "Wall" (Barriers to Entry)? ✅ Profitability: Why is it what it is? (Cyclical vs. Structural) If you can't answer the questions...
60/20/20 Beats Traditional 60/40 with Gold, International
It has been my thesis for the past 5 years that the “new” 60/40 is more like a 60/20/20. To illustrate this the chart below shows that a hypothetical 60/20/20 portfolio, allocated as noted in the chart, could have sharply...
Accelerated Buyback Could Boost $RELY Long-Term Price
Since you have a lot of free time on your hands now @matt_oppy, I would suggest running some quick numbers (can even have Claude do it for you) on what an accelerated buyback program could mean for the long-term share...
Don't Forget Dilution: Share Value Beats Company Size
Many investors ignore dilution. But if a company keeps issuing shares, your ownership percentage shrinks over time. Long-term investing isn’t about how big the company gets…it’s about how much each share becomes worth. #investingtips #investingstrategy #investingmindset
Iceye Revenue Doubles to $294M, Targets Another Double
.@Iceye 2025 financials: Revenue doubled, to $294M, & will double again this year; $153M in operating cash flow; EBITDA over $176M; $1.76B in backlog. https://t.co/FaGdnli5TX https://t.co/IqCzJ853gK
Management Quality Trumps Cheap Valuation in Investing
A cheap stock with a bad management team is not a good investment. Valuation means nothing if the people running the business are misallocating capital, chasing the wrong metrics, or treating the company like their personal piggy bank. I look for leaders...
Alamos Gold: Undervalued Mid‑Tier Leveraged Pick
. @AlamosGoldInc $AGI top pick ~1M oz by 2030, low-cost North America ops, falling AISC, net cash funding growth, undervalued vs peers. Best mid-tier leverage to gold.
Sony Trades at 13x EV/EBIT Before GTA 6 Launch
Sony at 13x EV/EBIT ahead of the GTA 6 release on 19 November 2026 https://t.co/FBeFJ5c7Bp
Consistent Dollar‑Cost Averaging Beats Market Timing
This circles back to investing consistently through Dollar Cost Averaging in a low-cost passive index fund that tracks the market. Remember, "Time in the Market, Beats Timing The Market." 📣 https://elmads.com/?p=4958 — The Power of Cost Averaging Investment Strategy
True Margin of Safety: Quality Business at Fair Price
Margin of safety isn't just about price. A cheap stock with a bad business isn't safe. Real margin of safety comes from buying quality businesses at reasonable prices. Good businesses protect your downside. A fair price protects your returns.
AI Can't Beat Markets; Hedge Funds Already Arbitrage Any Edge
While I think there are some great use cases for AI to do investment research (got an investment thesis, let it help crunch the data, or sift through a zillion 10-K filings to spot which companies match your criteria), I...
Shift From Efficient Frontier to Temporal Risk Management
I created a tool to visualize your sequence risk in a portfolio. We talk a lot about the "efficient frontier", but the EF turns investing into a performance chasing and alpha optimization problem. The average investor doesn't care about this...
Bumble's Cash Flow Outpaces Valuation, Fueling Short Squeeze
Bumble is printing cash. Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $71.6m vs $63m guidance. Guides for $78m adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026. Just $413m net debt end of 2026. No cash taxes for the foreseeable future. Should do ~$200m FCF in 2026...
Hold Index Funds Through Volatility, Not Market Predictions
Buying and holding index funds through highs and lows is a great strategy. But i bet if you saw this chart in 2013- You would've guessed the market is about to crash.
Market Stays Resilient Despite Decade‑Long S&P Drawdowns
S&P 500 peak-to-trough drawdowns this decade: 2020 -33.9% 2021 -5.2% 2022 -25.4% 2023 -10.3% 2024 -8.5% 2025 -18.9% 2026 -3.4% (so far) Why isn't the market falling more? Why are investors ignoring the headlines? Are we due for a correction? https://t.co/4VHwh9ODKB https://t.co/jZPvMOVHiI
Small and Mid Caps Ultra‑cheap, Primed for Multi‑year Rally
Valuation dispersion is extreme. Small and mid caps are producing strong earnings but trading at crisis-like valuation discounts. This is still one of the largest valuation gaps in decades. * Mid caps trade 21% cheaper than large caps * Small caps trade 26%...
Price Alone Misleads; Focus on Earnings Power
I’ve been bullish on $AVGO for years, and it has continued to perform exceptionally. The temptation of every investor is to look at a stock that has performed this well and simply assume the opportunity has passed. But the reality is that...
Lilly's Market Cap per Employee Rivals Tech Giants
One fun takeaway from my Lilly story: looking at $LLY from a market cap/employee ratio. Far more in line with tech giants like $META $GOOG $MSFT than pharma peers like $MRK $AZN $PFE: https://t.co/pVIADCH8AU https://t.co/FJE8JLIrmO
SaaS Giants Trade at Sky‑high EV/Sales Multiples
15 Most expensive SaaS stocks by Forward EV/Sales $PLTR — Palantir — 51x $NET — Cloudflare — 26x $APP — AppLovin — 21x $CRWD — CrowdStrike — 18x $FICO — Fair Isaac — 15x $AXON — Axon Enterprise — 13x $SHOP — Shopify — 12x $DDOG —...
Market at Fair Value After 4% S&P Pullback
In order to help us visualize the various stress points in the market (and in case they get worse), I created several dashboards over the weekend. First up is the commodity & currency heat map. From left to right are the...
Broadcom Undervalued AI Play Targets $460
Check in – Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) Recommendation: STRONG BUY Price: $342.58 Intrinsic Fair Value: ~$450 (anchored on 25–27x 2026E EPS ~$17.51) 12-Month Price Target: $440–$460 (Base, +28–34%) Current Signal: TACTICAL BUY Entry Zone: $325–$335 (50-DMA support pullback) Fair Pricing: AVGO trades at 19.7x forward EPS amid 57% guided...
Energy's S&P Share Drops, Hedge Disappears
"In the 1970s, energy equities at 25% of the S&P provided a natural portfolio hedge — as oil rose, energy stocks rose with it, partially insulating diversified investors. At 3%, that internal offset has all but vanished." Jeff Currie of @OneCarlyle
Passive Investors Sell Value, Buy Pricey Stocks—Uncover True Value
The recent rotation from growth to “value”, passive investors, in actuality, are selling value stocks to buy expensive stocks. Confused? In this follow-up, we take our three-tier earnings valuation framework, introduced in the article, a step further to uncover...
Buffett Says Pricing Power Is Business’s Top Driver
1/ Here are the key takeaways from Markus Husemann-Kopetzky on Pricing If Buffett thinks pricing power is the most important factor of any business, then surely we should pay attention to it https://t.co/fOStBwEZMt
Automate Small Paycheck Investments for Long-Term Growth
Every time you get paid, take a specific amount ($10, $20, $100, etc) and invest it. Don't know what to buy? Start with simple index funds, like VOO or VTI. Ideally, you should invest before your paycheck even hits (e.g 401k) Automate the...
Japan SaaS Stocks at 80‑90% Discount: Potential Generational Play
Many of Japan's leading SAAS companies are trading 80-90% below their 2021 peaks. Could this be a generational opportunity for investors? In the clip below hear Isabella Foley discuss Forager Funds Management's investment in a US$240m market cap healthcare SAAS firm that...
Oil Shocks Historically Slash Equity Valuations
Taking a look back to the 1930’s, we can see the various oil spikes over time. The top panel shows the 5-year CAPE ratio, and the bottom panel shows nominal oil prices in brown, and inflation-adjusted oil prices in purple...
Stagflation Looms as Iran Tensions Test Market Resilience
With the conflict in Iran becoming seemingly more contracted, the markets seem to be pricing in a less benign outcome despite what has been a Goldilocks backdrop of robust earnings growth, rising margins and productivity, hefty capex spending, an easing...
Higher‑Vol Strategies Shift Burden, Damage Manager Track Record
A lot of people ask me for higher volatility alternatives for "capital efficiency" reasons. And on it's face, it makes sense. Instead of putting $100 in a 10% vol strategy, you can just put $25 in a 40% vol strategy. But there are...
NVIDIA’s $120B Earnings Make Now Ideal Entry
NVIDIA makes $120 billion in net income a year. The stock is down from its highs. One week before the most watched event in AI — GTC 2026 — this may be the best entry point in over a year....
Large‑Cap Valuations at Historic Premium Over Small‑Mid Caps
The large-cap valuation premium is still near historical extremes. Large caps are trading at a ~28–36% premium to small and mid caps. That’s historically wide outside of the late-1990s tech bubble. The chart tracks forward P/E ratios for three indices: * Red: S&P 500...
Value Investing Returns Amid Historic Growth Cycle
We are in the midst of one of the largest growth cycles in modern history. Has the switch finally been flipped back to value in 2026?
Deep Research Jumpstarts Investment Thesis Evaluation
Deep research can save so much time evaluating an investment thesis You can't rely on it entirely, but an awesome start https://t.co/PLQyWBlnS1
AI-Driven Quant Models and Two Defensive Strategies
🔬 Research links: building quant models, the proper use of AI, and a look at two defensive strategies. https://t.co/Dgs1We8thJ chart: https://t.co/zEEeAwtzS4 https://t.co/8FlBmkGAR6