Start Small, Trust Earns Bigger Microcap Bets
I think the biggest problem microcap investors face is initial position sizing and making positions too big at the onset. Take your time getting to know people/management. Only make a really large bet when you know them very well and often times your small investment will naturally become large by this time. Time and execution naturally concentrate you into the CEO’s you should trust and vice versa.
Cumulative Preferreds Offer No Price Protection, Hurt Equity Upside
Trading preferreds for 37 years I'll mention that a preferred being "cumulative" doesn't help it hold its price when it stops paying its dividend even though it accumulates future unpaid dividend obligations. In fact the cumulative nature simply hurts...
Discounts Mean Nothing when Assets Are Overstated
Most investors blow up not because they overpaid. Because the thing they bought at a "discount" was worth less than the paper it was reported on. Overstated assets don't offer margin of safety. They offer margin of false comfort. Mr. Market doesn't care...
Most Space Stocks Fail Rigorous Valuation Checklist
Saw this question on Reddit: "Space stocks - are they the real bubble?" Fair question when $PL is up 1,106% in 12 months Here's the quick framework I use: 1. Revenue growth rate vs valuation multiple - is the market pricing in 5...
HALO Stocks Soar as Wendy's Stumbles; Feedback Matters
🆓 Thursday links: the rise of HALO stocks, how Wendy's lost its way, and learning to take feedback better. https://t.co/OVahypDrFk chart: https://t.co/Lir2cOrj62 https://t.co/ADnmTjvNL0
Robinhood's Massive Revenue, Profit, and Diversified Business
Everyone sold $HOOD on crypto. Here's what they missed: $4.47B revenue (+52%) $1.88B net income (42% margin) Rule of 40: 108 — Hyper-Elite 11 revenue streams over $100M each 4.2M Gold subscribers (+58%) Trump Accounts: govt contract for 25M families This isn't a trading app anymore. Full breakdown: https://open.substack.com/pub/dralexkoh/p/hood-deep-dive-i-called-this-stock
AI Infrastructure to Drive 40% of S&P 500 EPS Growth
GS: AI infrastructure investment should contribute roughly 40% of S&P 500 EPS growth this year https://t.co/wwWV4mxJVo
Tech PEG Ratio Beats Global Market Average
GS: The PEG ratio for technology is below that of the global aggregate market https://t.co/IXaYKIWChU
Tech's 50-Year Return Slump Ends After Long Drought
GS: one of the weakest periods of relative returns for technology over the past 50 years ... well, up until recently https://t.co/nPi8WR2wqm
Record Market Highs Mask Historic Concentration Risk
It's so old it's new: CONCENTRATION RISK New market highs, but lowest number of new 52-week highs going back 28 years....
Compounding Rewards Persistence, Not Brilliance, over Time
Buffett admits it plainly: if he'd died at 60 like his father, you'd never have heard of him. He wasn't smarter at 60 than at 30. He just kept showing up. Compounding doesn't reward genius. It rewards whoever stays in the game longest.
S&P's Low Yield, High PE Pushes Investors Toward LatAm
The S&P 500 is offering one of the lowest dividend yields in nearly 150 years. At the same time, it’s trading at one of the richest cyclically adjusted P/E ratios in history. Ask yourself: What’s the actual upside you’re being compensated for at...
Activist Catalyst Could Unlock $20‑25 Valuation for ALOT
$ALOT is a solid goodco/badco setup with a clear catalyst - Activist (9.2%) ousted the CEO, took a board seat, and forced a strategic review (now underway) - Earnings power is masked by a bad acquisition a few years back - On norm....
NewScorpioGold Manhattan Expansion Keeps Gold Play in Buy Range
New ground gets stitched together for @NewScorpioGold at Manhattan, this district-scale play is getting bigger. See the map, what is a brownfields project, along with JV's stock chart and why this #gold play is still in Buy range: https://t.co/0Q3d3JlLkF
Tech Stocks Cheap, S&P 7300 Target Signals Safe Haven
"In 5 years, you won't believe Tech stocks could be bought so cheaply ". Tom Lee Lee says the market is better positioned now than in November 2025 because it has now demonstrated it can handle surging oil prices and War. Furthermore,...
Small‑mid Caps Poised to Reclaim Premium over Large Caps
Smalls and mids still trading at a big discount to large. Recovered a some of the discount but traded at a premium to large for most of the decade. Got to this level in 2022 before falling back. Question is...
Strong Fundamentals Keep Equities Resilient Amid Mid‑cycle Economy
The saving grace for equities are strong fundamentals with a US economy firmly in mid-cycle, earnings estimates growing at double digits, and valuations not out of whack against metrics such as credit spreads and operating margins. https://t.co/YcF7Fv550i
Ganfeng Profits Surge on Booming EV and AI Storage Demand
China’s lithium giant Ganfeng sees profit jump as EV, ESS battery demand soars The world’s top lithium producer forecasts a strong turnaround as global decarbonisation and AI-driven energy storage fuel demand https://t.co/ugavTV7WR5 via @scmpnews
Investor Sentiment Still Below Crossover Amid Shifting Headlines
A longer term measure of sentiment (the Investors Intelligence survey below) shows that sentiment has not “crossed over” as it did a year ago. Maybe that will still happen now that the headlines have pivoted again. https://t.co/UFEsFhZhJf
Duolingo Could Match Its Valuation with 100M Paid Users
"I think there is a very real scenario where Duolingo delivers on its super tutor-in-your-pocket vision and 100 million global paid subs at $100/year and 30% FCF margins results in $3 billion annual FCF vs. the current enterprise value of...
Palantir's AI Bootcamps Fuel 62% Growth Forecast
Top 5 SaaS Stocks With the Highest Estimated Growth (+AI Tailwinds) 👇 $PLTR — Palantir | +62% NTM growth Palantir is compressing enterprise sales cycles through AIP Bootcamps, moving prospects into live deployments before contracts are signed. In Q4, the company closed...
Invest Under $100: ETFs Offer Broad Market Exposure
You don’t need thousands to start investing. There are solid ETFs you can buy for under $100 a share—and they still give you exposure to hundreds (or even thousands) of companies. Here are a few strong options: • SCHD → focused on dividend-paying...
LSDI Fees Often Outweigh Tax-Loss Harvest Savings
"For a typical investor, the fees paid to a leveraged long/short direct indexing (LSDI) tax-loss harvesting manager eat up most of the tax savings. In our base case, the investor pays more than half as much in fees as the...
HROW: Profitable, Cheap, Fast‑Growing Stock with Upside Catalysts
Just re-sharing this in case you missed my thoughts on $HROW last night... if you're a long term investor and looking for companies with asymmetric upside potential then this is a name that should definitely be on your watchlist. $HROW...
Now Tracking Revenue Growth Across Every Fund Portfolio
i can't believe i didn't have this before, but i can now see (and show) revenue growth across each fund's portfolio https://t.co/Jgmf7wORWv
Berkshire, Walmart Diverge Sharply Nov‑Feb, Biggest in 5 Years
Berkshire and Walmart have typically had a similar “shape” of relative performance vs the S&P 500. Nov-Feb was easily the biggest divorce in past 5 years. $BRK $WMT https://t.co/NP54QHbFzJ
Nygren Sees Adobe Undervalued, Buys at Discount
Bill Nygren buys $ADBE in Q1 "We believe that the company retains durable competitive advantages across multiple growing markets, and that recent skepticism has created an opportunity to invest in this highly profitable and well-managed category leader at a meaningful...
Fewer Decisions, More Conviction Drive Real Success
It's easy to conflate activity with progress 76% of family offices expect to make ten transactions or fewer each year Warren Buffett famously told business school students to imagine a punch card with only 20 slots, representing every investment decision they'd be...
Consensus Mirrors Management, Yet Big Firms Miss 15%
"The numbers are revealing. By mid-March 2025, at the conclusion of Q4 2024 reporting, 188 S&P 500 Index companies had issued full-year EPS guidance. At that point, sell-side estimates were, on average, within just 0.3% of the midpoint of guidance....
Spirit Airlines May Cease Flights This Week, Sell Assets
Spirit Airlines Could Stop Flying This Week And Sell Off Its Assets - View from the Wing https://t.co/145CNkriZg
Next Bull Run: 18‑Month Cycle, Top Opportunities
🚨 WEBINAR ALERT: The Long Short Report “Sweet Tooth – Sweeter 2026: Riding the Next Bull Run” 📌 Is the correction over? What’s driving the next 18-month cycle? 📈 Where are the biggest opportunities (metals, agro, energy)? ⚠️What risks still matter (rates, dollar, geopolitics)? 🎯Nifty outlook:...
Mega‑caps Control Nearly One‑Fifth of S&P 500
Every S&P 500 Company in One Giant Chart Key Takeaways: 👉 This chart shows all 500 companies in the S&P 500, sized by market cap and grouped by sector. 👉 Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft alone make up about 18% of the $57.6 trillion...
Strong Growth, High Cash, but Overvalued Post‑IPO
#TBTG "Revenue and Profit growth exceeding expectations". Net Cash £40.8m. ShareScope has fwd p/e 19.8 falling to 14.2; quite low rating if cash stripped out. Recent IPO and interesting. I don't hold.
Only Two Times Since 1990: Record Close, Few 52‑Week Highs
Just 2 sessions since 1990 with fewer S&P 500 constituents at 52w highs when the benchmark index closed at a record than yesterday: -Nov 13, 2020 -March 21, 2000 (h/t to @scottcharts for the inspo) https://t.co/52dt1frKOz
AVG Secures £10m Nuclear Orders, Shares Surge 7%
#AVG won "more than £10m" in Nuclear orders since Jan 1st. ShareScope showing fwd p/e 19.1 falling to 15.5 and fwd Divvy 0.9% each of next 2 years, BEFORE 7% jump today and the News. New ATH and a chart...
BOOM's Growth vs High Forward P/E Raises Rating Doubts
#BOOM Update reads well with decent growth in Revenue and Profit. ShareScope showing fwd p/e 39.3 falling to 27.4, and no Dividend. Does it justify the rating? I don't hold.
EasyJet Predicts Larger H1 Loss Amid Middle East Conflict
EasyJet warns of bigger first-half loss, lower bookings as Middle East war upends business https://t.co/FeDiVpr1tN
Margin Expansion Remains Core Strategy for Companies
Holy GMs. I have said this many times but the main storyline for many companies remains — margin expansion.
Record Buffett Indicator Flags Historic U.S. Market Overvaluation
The Warren Buffett Indicator just hit its highest level in history, signalling the most overvalued U.S. stock market on record. This is why Buffett is holding nearly $400 billion in cash much of it in Treasuries and now owns...
Low Multiples Offer Expansion; High Multiples Invite Compression
Guess what, when your portfolio trades at 37x cash flow, multiple compression is a major risk. That’s why my portfolio trades at 3.7x cash flow, so multiple expansion is a major opportunity.
Seeking Interest for Weekly Shadow Activist Stock Analyses
Who would like to see regular Senjin Capital analysis of “shadow activist” ideas? That is, where existing activists are involved, but may not have said anything publicly about their thesis? I have seen some complaints that there aren’t enough actionable stock ideas...
Consistent SIP Beats Higher Returns Over Time
₹1L SIP ~ ₹22.6 Cr ₹1.25L SIP ~ ₹28.3 Cr ₹1.5L SIP ~ ₹33.9 Cr ₹1.75L SIP ~ ₹39.6 Cr ₹2L SIP ~ ₹45.2 Cr ₹2.25L SIP ~ ₹50.9 Cr ₹2.5L SIP ~ ₹56.5 Cr Assuming 10% return for 30 years. Same market. Lower return. Still massive wealth. Lesson: Return matters…...
Invest Your Salary, Retire Early with Passive Gains
Last year, my portfolio made me more money than my old job at Deloitte. I worked 55 billable hours during busy season vs just buying ETFs like $VTI and waiting for the same $$$ gain Turn your active income into investments so...
Value Investors Finally Facing Overlooked Market Reality
A reality most value investors choose to ignore but I feel this is finally starting to change https://t.co/IcebLm2h9e
Graham's Edge: Process Over Story, Let Statistics Win
Graham's edge wasn't genius. It was a process: 1️⃣ Find broadly undervalued securities, not one "perfect" pick 2️⃣ Let margin of safety do the work, not your story 3️⃣ Repeat until the math wins Most investors want a great story. Graham wanted great odds. Stories...
Stay Invested: Best Market Days Follow the Worst
The S&P 500 just ripped higher, a 99.8th percentile 10-day run. And this is exactly why time in the market beats timing the market. Because the market doesn’t send invitations before its best days. Miss just a handful of them, the explosive rebounds,...
JetBlue Founder Predicts Bankruptcy, No Buyers This Year
JetBlue Founder Warns The Airline May Go Bankrupt This Year — And Says Nobody Will Buy It - View from the Wing https://t.co/fFvy77qBrc
Beta Tweaks and Cash Raise Boost Portfolio Performance
Tweaks to beta yesterday (raising cash) Sold some VEA -0.3% Today GSG -0.3% Today GLD -1.2% Today SPY +0.8% Today Net net those worked.
Diversifiers Shine as Equities and Bonds Re‑correlate
With equities and bonds positively correlated again (a déjà vu to 2022), it’s good to see that the group of diversifiers that I have in my hypothetical 60/20/20 model have been doing their job. The chart below shows the “crawling”...
Small and Mid‑Cap Yields Surpass Large Caps
Asset location implications: Dividend yields are now higher in small and mid caps vs. large caps https://t.co/UPCV1LiXSB