Memory and Photonics Stocks Outpace Magnificent 7 as AI Shifts Downstream
Memory chip makers and photonics companies are outperforming almost every Magnificent 7 stock this year. The AI trade is quietly shifting downstream. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/psFbwiQSDw
Advisors Guide Clients to Tax‑Efficient RSU Sale Strategies
Creating An Effective RSU Sale Strategy With Clients: How financial advisors can play a valuable role in helping clients manage their vested RSUs in a way that reduces concentration risk and meets cash flow needs in a tax-efficient manner. (Daniel Zajac) https://t.co/sje8maE7MA...
Strong‑balance‑sheet Stocks Stay Pricey Amid Capital Cost Pressure
GS: We see limited scope for further rotation into weak-balance-sheet stocks, as the cost of capital is under pressure from Fed policy and AI-related demand for capital. Premium for strong balance sheet stocks remains elevated versus history https://t.co/eUHYCy1ace
ESPN's Tiny Revenue Gains Mask Massive Rights Costs
⬆️ On the top-line: #ESPN paid significant equity (10% @ $30 billion valuation) to squeak out minimal top-line revenue growth in its first consolidated quarterly earnings reports (Q2/FY2026): reporting $4.6 billion I n revenue for its sports division, solely crediting...
SoFi’s Explosive Growth, yet Market Still Confused
What did $SOFI do to deserve this? Last quarter numbers: - Members up 35% - Revenues up 41% - Profits up 134% All-in net charge off rate remained stable around 4.4%. Make it make sense..
NVDA Guidance Lifts Semiconductor Forecasts, Stocks Underreact
Probably obvious to everyone but here it is. The big change in earnings expectations for semiconductors occured soon after Jensen Huang took the stage at $NVDA GTC developers conference and gave forward guidance. That was March 16-17th. Analyst...
Tech Industries Show Wider ROIC Gaps than Consumer/Industrial
Michael Mauboussin on ROIC by industry: "The dispersion of returns is generally lower for industries in the consumer and industrial sectors and higher for industries in the technology sector." "A company’s ROIC is determined in part by the industry it competes...
AI Threatens Microsoft’s Core Dominance, Hedge Fund Warns
One of the world’s top hedge funds just made a striking AI statement. Chris Hohn’s TCI sharply reduced its Microsoft position, warning that AI could eventually threaten parts of its core software dominance. That is the paradox of AI. Even today’s winners...
Aging Demographics Boost Senior Housing; DHC Stock Buy
Macro: aging demographics support senior housing. Key: DHC Q1 SHOP NOI +160bp, normalized FFO +131% YoY, occupancy +110bp; revenue miss. Risks: 7.8x leverage, 2028 maturities. Trade: buy on weakness to $7.50 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
AI Investment Shifts From Nvidia to Full Stack
The AI trade is starting to broaden beyond NVIDIA. As AI shifts from chatbots to autonomous agents, investors are rotating into companies like Intel, AMD and infrastructure players tied to CPUs, memory and connectivity. The next phase of AI may reward the...
Avoiding Small Bets Costs You Decent Returns
Because u want to concentrate or not buy at all and it is not easy to put 10 pct type weights in such volatile (previously) names. So u made no returns instead of making decent returns if you had been...
Start Investing Now: Time Beats Market Timing Every Time
The math is simple: time in the market beats timing the market every single time. If you’re 37 today and want to hit $2.5M by 65, you need about $140,000 invested right now... assuming a 10.5% annual return (the S&P 500...
Nvidia Investment Turned $10K Into $620M
Crazy stat. If you'd invested $10,000 in Nvidia when the 76ers management coined the term "trust the process," you'd be sitting on a $620m fortune right now. Isn't that crazy?
Americans Hold More Wealth in Stocks Than Real Estate
Ruchir Sharma, Chairman of Rockefeller International, on Americans’ overexposure in the equity market: “America is the only country where people have more of their wealth in the stock market than in the property market.” https://t.co/fdqVJtKVNJ
US Stock Market in Bubble Territory, Yield Spread Confirms
My view in @beincrypto on how the US stock market is OVERPRICED, OVERVALUED, and OVERHYPED: “My Bubble Detector says the US stock market is in bubble territory. So does the bond-stock yield spread. Buckle up.” https://t.co/EIcTSXkcsw
Net‑Nets Thrive on Clean Balance Sheets, Not Ash
Graham called it a cigar butt. One last free puff. But if the tobacco was wet, stale inventory, uncollectible receivables, there's no puff. Just ash. Net-nets work. Until they don't. The difference is always the balance sheet behind the balance sheet.
Morgan Stanley Raises IonQ Target, Sparks Sell Debate
why would you suggest "equal weight" when $IONQ stock is already above your new target? wouldn't that mean SELL? @MorganStanley Morgan Stanley resets IonQ stock price target | IONQ - TheStreet https://t.co/4XvKMvJxIQ
Intel's Apple Deal Promises Modest Earnings Boost
intel popped $13 on a deal with apple that might add 5c per share earnings in 4-5 years. that is the stage of the market we are currently in... $INTC
Intel's 26-Year Wait Ends with Record High
The great resurrection of Intel. Intel just printed a new all time high. After 26 years. If you bought INTC at the dot com peak in 2000, you sat through two recessions, a smartphone revolution you missed, a foundry meltdown, and a...
Top Value Investing Updates and Conference Highlights 2026
This week in value: VALUExBRK 2026 | Bill Ackman, Mohnish Pabrai, Tom Gayner, Chris Bloomstran & More (Guy Spier) 2026 Value Investing Conference | Keynote Speaker: Dr. Stephen Penman (Ivey) First Eagle Global Value Team Commentary Q1 2026 (FEIM) Third Avenue Value Fund Q1...
Apartment REITs Reveal Merger Rumors and Rent Rebound
The apartment REITs wrapped up earnings calls, and just wrote up 8 takeaways -- the rumored merger, renter financial health, the potential rent rebound, market conditions across the country, stock buybacks, new regulatory risks, etc. https://t.co/I7IyydGpMM
Intel's 128x Journey: Rise, Fall, Stagnation, Renaissance
The long-term chart of $INTC showing its staggering 128-fold rise, its subsequent fall, its long going-nowhere phase and, now, its renaissance, is begging to be preserved https://t.co/BZMl1RKH4O
Commodities and Futures Shine as Stocks‑Bonds Correlate
Fortunately we are now in the 60/20/20 era and there are places to hide. The scatterplot below shows that as stocks and bonds become more positively correlated to each other (per the two black lines), some of the diversifiers (especially...
Qualcomm Soars on Data Center Chip Momentum, Still Cheap
Qualcomm $QCOM blasts off, up 80% in a month and 10% today without news. It's likely that QCOM data center chips are gaining traction. Still relatively cheap with a trailing PS of 5 and PE of 24. See my previous...
US Stock Market Shows Bubble Signals, Yield Spread Confirms
My Bubble Detector says the US stock market is in bubble territory. So does the bond-stock yield spread. Buckle up. https://t.co/6ZhjdNX6mH
Short‑Term Pain, Long‑Term Gain: TMDX Still Bullish
Just wrapped up a 45 minute call with $TMDX management… lots of good stuff.. obviously there’s some short term pain from margin compression due to bigger investments (R&D, trials, international expansion, etc) but my conviction has not changed and I...
Bad Businesses Stay Bad—Quality Is the only Thesis
Buffett called it clearly: a bad business is a bad business. No strategy saves it. No manager fixes it. No valuation justifies it. The smartest move he ever made in Textiles? Finally leaving. Business quality is the investment thesis.
Tesla Undervalued: Driverless Robotaxis Under $500
While people online were calling me a moron, an asshole, and shitting their pants over a minor correction I was buying calls Tesla remains dramatically undervalued. There are driverless pure vision Robotaxis on the road and it’s still trading under...
Rising Oil Forwards Threaten 60/40 Portfolio Stability
What if this condition lasts longer than the market assumes? What if it’s not the spot price that is too high but the forwards that are too low? If this left tail risk manifests, it could have far reaching implications...
MU's Future Upside Hinges on 2027 Earnings Delivery
Client asked me how high $MU can go. The answer is a lot higher or no higher at all. "That's the problem it has an 8 p/e relative to 2027 EPS and 4.7 P/S relative to 2027 forward revenue...
AI Enhances Quant Investing, Yet Judgment Still Crucial
“When the computer model produces the results, the work is just starting.” Bridgeway Co-CIO Elena Koziaeva joins us on @excessreturnpod https://t.co/OebmbVb6K4 We discuss: • Why the S&P 500 may be less diversified than investors think • What Bridgeway’s research says about the small-cap premium •...
Oil Shock May Mirror 2022 Spike, Not Gulf War
Not to rain on this bullish parade, but there is a left tail lurking out there in the Strait of Hormuz. The more I learn about the mechanics of the energy market, the more concerned I am that what the...
45% Drop, Still Holds U.S.’s Top Beer – Opportunity
A stock down ~45%… but still owns the #1 beer in the U.S. High margins. Permanent rights. Strong cash flow. Market sees risk. I see a question: Temporary pressure or permanent damage? That’s where the opportunity is.
TCI Slashes Microsoft Holding to 1% over AI Worries
JUST IN: TCI cut its Microsoft stake to 1% of its portfolio over AI concerns.
AI Surge Mirrors 1999 Internet Bubble, Signals Blow‑Off Rally
With the AI theme continuing to accelerate higher, should we be back on bubble watch, as we were last October when things started to get frothy? I haven’t shown my bubble analog in a while, so we are due for...
Vale Indonesia Q1 Shows Nickel Output Decline, Cost Pressures
PT Vale Indonesia’s Q1 2026 earnings transcript is out. Key nickel output and cost trends were discussed—worth a read for insights on market direction. 📉🔍 NickelNews
AI‑driven Capex Fuels 17‑year Secular Bull
All those corrections were sharp but short-lived, as is typical during secular bull markets. By my count, the current secular regime started in 2009 and is now 17 years old. There are no signs yet that the secular bull is...
Top-Performing Wendy's Franchises Thrive Amid Overall Sales Dip
Wendy's U.S. franchisees in 2025: Net sales down 6% EBITDA margin down 270bp to 9.3%. But the company says franchisees with the strongest customer experience and satisfaction scores are doing better on both sales and profits. $WEN
S&P Climbs 12% on Just 42 Contributing Stocks
The S&P 500 ripped nearly 12% higher since 4-1, but UBS analysts say the S&P 500’s “effective constituents” **the number of stocks materially contributing to the index’s gain** fell to a record low of 42 last week.
Don’t Confuse Price with Value: Invest Wisely
Most investors lose not because they pick bad stocks — but because they mistake price for value. Here's the difference: 1️⃣ Price is a number. Value is a judgment. 2️⃣ Price is public. Value takes work to find. 3️⃣ Price changes daily. Value changes...
MELI’s 49% Revenue Surge Masks Margin Decline
My thoughts on $MELI Q1 2026 The quarterly report was strong, despite the stock falling -4.3% after earnings and being down -28% from its 52-week high. The stock is trading at valuation multiples close to ATL, with EV/Sales at 2.8x and Forward...
Elliott Targets Daikin: Cut Costs, Boost ROE, Unlock Value
Shareholder activist Elliott's 27 April 2026 case for Japanese HVAC company Daikin: 1. Technology edge in inverter systems, refrigerant systems, compressors 2. Has been growing market share from 10% in 2015 to 14% last year, suggesting brand strength 3. The global HVAC market...
AI Now Holds 40% of Market, Echoing 1881 Railroads
AI bubble watch: Railroads = 63% of US stocks in 1881, ‘AI 10’ today = 40% BofA Hartnett https://t.co/CiE00E0p6t
SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron Control 75% of DRAM Market
Chip stock valuations , not surprised to see SK Hynix , Samsung & $MU at the top. They also make up 75% of $DRAM
Apple’s AI Push Justifies $400 Price Target
We are raising our price target to $400 reflecting this new AI age coming to Apple that will enable Cupertino to finally get into the AI Revolution as we estimate roughly 20% of the world's population will access AI through...
Long-Term Success Demands Short-Term Humility
To be right in the long-term, you must be willing to look wrong in the short-term.
RMV Holds Guidance Amid AI Fears, Dividend Rises
#RMV "in line" and reiterates FY guidance. ShareScope has fwd p/e 14 falling to 12.7 and fwd Divvy 2.7% rising to 2.9%; I guess this has been mainly hit by AI fears but it remains the portal of choice for...
Prioritize Consumer Surplus When Valuing Consumer Companies
Great discussion on how to look at consumer companies. Consumer surplus should be the focus. https://t.co/KhD3hQQJJK
Strong Free Cash Flow Fundamentals Boost Gold, Silver Miners
Fundamentals for increasing free cash flow so good for gold and silver miners. $gdx $sil https://t.co/zgUAI5BVoi
Revenue Rises, Profit Plummets as Wine Tourism Hits 100 Cr
Sula Vineyards reported Q4FY26 revenue of INR 142.56 crore, up 7.1% YoY, with Wine Tourism crossing INR 100 crore annually for the first time. FY26 consolidated net profit fell to INR 25.65 crore from INR 70.20 crore in FY25, impacted...