MSTR Stock Unattractive; Debt and Preferred Safer
"I don't see any scenario where you'd really want to own MSTR stock right now, given how dire the options are" Jeff Dorman ranks the Strategy capital structure from safest to riskiest "In a worst case where MicroStrategy defaults, you'd want to own the debt first. If you have $56 billion of Bitcoin backing $7 billion of debt, you're fully covered. Those would rise to par immediately if you thought default was imminent. That's the safest place" "The next safest is the preferred. There's only $15 billion of preferreds on top of $7 billion of debt, backed by $57 billion of Bitcoin. In a default you'll get your money back. But people buy them for the dividend, and if you cut it they fall 30 or 40 percent" "If you think default is four years out instead of one year and you can get 12 percent per year while you wait, that might be worth it. But the MSTR stock is the hardest one. I don't see any scenario where you'd want to own it right now"
Patience Pays: 14‑Year Lag Leads to 17,862% Returns
Did you know that Sir John Marks Templeton, wo started his investment fund in 1954 when he was 42 years old, underperformed the market for the first 14 years. Yet, when he retired in 1991, he achieved one of the...
Stocks Outperform Bonds and Commodities Over Century
Stocks for the long run... US stocks produced a 6.9% real return (closer to 5% for ex-US) 1802-2025 Bonds 3.3% Bills 2.5% Gold 0.9% Oil 0.4% (since the early 1900s) Dollar -1.5% My take: commodities may be tempting, but their long-term returns are dreadful https://t.co/LdXZjJ7FjN
Rate Hikes Dwarf Earnings Growth in S&P Valuation
Another way of illustrating the offsetting forces between earnings growth and interest rates is via the Discounted Cash Flow Model (DCF): S&P 500 below. Currently, with 5-year payout CAGR of 12% the S&P 500 index is fairly valued at an...
Tech Industries Show Wider ROIC Gaps Than Consumer, Industrial
Michael Mauboussin on ROIC by industry: "The dispersion of returns is generally lower for industries in the consumer and industrial sectors and higher for industries in the technology sector." "A company’s ROIC is determined in part by the industry it competes...
Earnings Growth + Expanding P/E = Best Returns
The somewhat cosmic looking Earnings & Valuation scatter plot below shows 150 years of stock market history. Along the horizontal axis is earnings growth and along the vertical axis is the annual change in the P/E-ratio. Together with dividends these...
GE Aerospace Holds Pricing Power Amid Flat Departures
Airline departures flatten; fuel costs spike. GE Aerospace says engine maintenance orders remain steady—aftermarket pricing power holds. Risk: deeper capacity cuts. Trade: overweight GE.— Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Seek Microcap CEOs Prioritizing EPS Growth, No Dilution
Find a microcap CEO that is 100% focused on growing earnings per share with no/low dilution. That's a book in a sentence and a strategy that has worked for 100 years.
Risk Lies in Price Paid, Not Business Quality
Klarman paid 50 cents for a dollar. Not because the business was safe. Because the price was. The same stock at $20 is a speculation. At $8 it's a margin of safety. Nothing about the company changed. Risk isn't in the asset. It's...
Profitability Now Trumps Growth in SaaS Valuations
SaaS Valuations: Growth Still Matters, But Profitability Matters More The chart compares SaaS companies by NTM revenue growth estimates and Forward EV/Gross Profit. It also separates companies by GAAP op. margin, which helps show how much the market is paying for...
S&P 500 Earnings Growth Expectations Hit Record 21.9%
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (May 23, 2026) Exuberance check: S&P 500 long-term earnings growth expectations surged to 21.9%, a record outside the pandemic era. What's driving the optimism, and can fundamentals support it? https://t.co/qFWcL4OUp0
Treat Estimates as Estimates, Not Facts, for Safety
Graham built margin of safety into every model. Not because he was pessimistic. Because his inputs weren't facts — they were estimates. An estimate dressed up as a fact is the most dangerous number in investing.
Focus on the Framework, Not the Next NVDA
The best question I got from a member this week: "Alex, what's the next $NVDA?" My honest answer: Stop asking that. The question that actually compounds wealth: "What's the framework that found $NVDA in 2020 — before anyone called it the next anything?" That framework is...
SBRE Dividend Yield Climbs to 9.3% Pre‑Price Surge
#SBRE decent Update. ShareScope has fwd Dividend Yield 8.9% rising to 9.3% BEFORE 7% share price rise today (factor in). Definitely one for an Income Portfolio. I don't hold (got plenty of Insurance plays).
ROIC's Denominator: Net Assets vs Financing Mix
Michael Mauboussin on the 2 ways to calculate ROIC "You can think of invested capital, the denominator of the ROIC calculation, in two ways that are equivalent. The first is the net assets a company needs to generate NOPAT. The second...
NVDA's $400B CY26 Target Tests Multiple Compression
I queried my $NVDA model, essentially the what has to be true for the multiple model. So here you go, notes post earnings. $NVDA printed ~$81.6B and guided ~$91B next quarter. That guide implies a ~$364B annualized exit...
RDDT Appears Massively Undervalued Despite Strong Earnings Outlook
$RDDT down -4.7% today, continues to trade like crap. When $RDDT reports Q2 earnings... revenues should be up at least +50% YoY... and EPS should be up at least +60% YoY $RDDT market cap right now is $28B... when they report...
Verra Mobility: Solid Growth, Buy‑the‑Dip at 10x EBITDA
Verra Mobility (VRRM) sold off after losing a $133M NY tolling contract—but the core biz is still solid. 10%+ growth, 95% retention, and now trading at ~10x EBITDA. A quality buy-the-dip setup. 📉🧠 ValueInvesting
TMDX Poised for Massive Organ Transport Growth by 2032
I spent some quality time today with the $TMDX team at their HQ in Andover, MA. I’ll share some deeper thoughts over the next few days including my bear case, base case, bull case and super bull case for the...
Value Emerges When Every Dollar Beats Cost of Capital
Michael Mauboussin on the One Dollar Test "A company creates value when one dollar invested in the business is worth more than one dollar in the market. This happens when the firm is able to make investments that generate a return...
Crocs: $4.7B Cash‑flow Machine, Not Just a Fad
Day 28 of 30: How $CROX Crocs actually makes money Most people think they just sell a passing fad of ugly foam clogs They don't...they are quietly running a $4.7 billion cash-flow machine with some of the best profit margins in apparel Here...
Alpha Lies in Understanding Managers' Long‑Term Strategies
The alpha from 13F's isn't duplicating stale positions. It's from identifying investment strategies over long time horizons of various individual managers and managers in homogenous cohorts and seeing why these folks buy and sell what they buy and sell and...
Mega‑Cap Growth Dominates, Value Set for Rebound
Global Growth is still historically expensive, while Value remains relatively cheap, but expensive to its own history. Financials at ~12.2x and Energy at ~12.5x remain cheap. Staples near 19.8x is notable. This chart supports the thesis that we are likely in a: *...
Mercado Libre Deep Dive: Thesis, Model, Risks, Valuation
I just released my Mercado Libre deep dive - $MELI I cover everything you need to know about the current opportunity – from the key pillars of the thesis to the business model, risks, and valuation. Find it via the link in...
Value Investing Finds Opportunity Amid AI Fear and Market Distortions
Tweedy Browne’s John Spears And Jay Hill on: * AI Fear Is Creating New Opportunities * How Insider Buying Can Reveal Undervalued Stocks * Big Tech Buybacks May Be Destroying Shareholder Value * Why Market Flows Are Distorting Valuations * What Honey Badgers Can Teach...
Software Stocks Show Wide PSG Valuation Gaps
SaaS PSG Ratio: Growth-adjusted valuation still shows major dispersion across software stocks PSG helps compare software companies by looking at valuation relative to expected growth, not valuation alone. A lower PSG can signal a more attractive growth-adjusted setup, while a higher PSG...
Spreadsheet Reveals Undervalued Cybersecurity Stocks Like APP, RDDT
I put together a spreadsheet of 60+ software, cloud and cybersecurity companies: - % down from their 52 week high - % up from their 52 week low - current NTM ev/revs multiple - current NTM ev/ebitda multiple - 2 year expected revenue growth...
KITS Poised for $500M Revenue, 3‑year Upside
$KITS is currently being offered at bargain prices. I think today will prove to be a massive buying opportunity looking out 2-3 years. I think KITS can reach $500M in revenues, or close to it, by 2030-2031. EBITDA margins should...
NASDAQ100 Hedge Fails as Growth Correlations Decouple
Strategy change - portfolio management & hedging For years, we successfully hedged our concentrated growth portfolio by shorting NASDAQ100 futures. It was simple, liquid and highly effective - a reliable offset during stock market downtrends when correlations between our holdings and...
Rising Rates First Narrow Market Breadth, Then Indices Fall
Since 2023, I've been highlighting that investors should be more concerned with rising rates rather than growth scares. EVERY macro problem first shows up in a very narrow way, affecting market breadth, before it becomes a systemic issue (pushes the...
Only Four Moats Last Decades, Seven Analyzed
Most "moats" investors rely on aren't actually durable. Brand fades. Technology gets disrupted. Scale gets matched. I analyzed 7 moat types and ranked them by how long they actually hold. 4 that compound quietly for decades. 3 that look safe until they aren't.
Invest with a Margin of Safety, Like Overbuilt Bridges
If you build a bridge for a 10-ton truck, you make sure it can hold 50 tons. Why should your portfolio be any different? Seth Klarman on why buying with a "Margin of Safety" is so important.
We’re Buying Top Tech Franchises Amid Market Dislocation
As two of the largest forces in equity markets -- growing index ownership and increasing amounts of capital controlled by extremely short-term-oriented, leveraged, volatility-intolerant investors -- converge, we have found occasional opportunities to acquire some of the most dominant long-term...
FPS Posts Explosive Growth, Becomes Top Fund Pick
Very strong earnings report this morning by $FPS (Forgent Power Solutions)... we increased our position today... now a top 15 position at @FirstWaveFund Here is the press release: https://t.co/vNSIoTbsZx FY2026 Q3 results: Revenues of $379M, up 103% YoY Bookings of $867M, up 308% YoY Backlog...
War Devalues Money; Real Assets Outperform Over Decades
Warren Buffett on asset allocation during war: "The one thing you can be quite sure of: if we went into some very major war, the value of money would go down. You’re going to be a lot better off owning...
CSU.TO: Undervalued SaaS with Near‑Zero Churn
Giverny Capital thinks $CSU.TO is way too cheap - Critical, data-rich SaaS that's near impossible to rip out - Switching=data nightmare, so churn is near zero - FCF compounding 18%/yr while the stock barely moves - At 8% fwd FCF yield, mkt pricing in...
Prioritize Core 90% Portfolio, Reserve 10% for Edge Bets
Been working on my financial plan. Sharing in case it's useful. The frame. You have more than enough. The job now is contentment and not screwing it up, not maximizing. AppSumo is your alpha. Family time is finite. Investing is a...
Broadcom’s 865% Rise Still Shows Low PEG
$AVGO Broadcom is up over 865% in the last 5 years. Forward P/E: 37.50 Projected 3 YR EPS CAGR: 41.21% That gives them a PEG ratio of just 0.91! Don't assume a stock is expensive just because the share price has climbed.
AI Supercharges Infrastructure Software and Cybersecurity Markets
AI isn’t disrupting infrastructure software and cybersecurity - it’s supercharging them. Here’s why:• • Inference and agentic AI are exploding data volumes and complexity. That demands next-gen infrastructure software: smarter databases, orchestration, observability, IaC and data pipelines. Hyperscalers are dropping ~$700...
Top Companies Across Each Photonics Value Chain Layer
A breakdown of the photonics value chain and best positioned business: Layer 1: Materials & wafers • $GLW • $AXTI • $IQE • $AIXA • $AMS Layer 2: Core photonic devices • $IPGP • $COHR • $LITE • $LASR • $SIVE • Layer 3: Components & modules • $AAOI • $MTSI • $FN • $VIAV • $LPTH Layer 4:...
AI‑Heavy Mega‑Caps Power Narrow S&P Rally
S&P500 rally is narrow—10 stocks drove 69% of gains; AI leaders concentrate returns, heavy AI capex cuts FCF and raises market fragility. Risk: valuation gap, IPO supply. Trade: overweight selective mega‑caps, trim beta. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Core Scientific's AI Pipeline Drives Funding, Margin Expansion Expected
AI compute demand drives Core Scientific's 3GW pipeline funded by $3.3B notes; execution and margins lag and CoreWeave concentration raise risk. Trade: buy CORZ on confirmed margin expansion — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Complex Recap Unnecessary; Simple Share Buyback Suffices
The company has capex needs, expects minimal growth next year. Costs will rise. Raising ¥250bn to buy back shares raises debt/EBITDA by more than one turn. This is easy. Buy back stock at X. Re-issue it years later at X...
Lululemon's Growth Halving, EPS Decline Prompts Downgrade
I just downgraded $LULU. From B- to C-. My system said Perfect Entry at $131. I overrode it. Lululemon's revenue growth has halved every year for five years straight. Now they've guided fiscal 2026 EPS *down* — the first YoY decline in over a...
Buy‑and‑hold Is Fading; Adopt Tactical Investing Now
Long-term buy-and-hold might be dying. Markets are faster, bonds don't hedge, and company lifespans are shrinking. Time to think tactical, not forever. 📉 InvestingStrategy
Trade Against Mr. Market's Mood, Not His Logic
Mr. Market has two moods: euphoria and despair. He never texts you when he's thinking clearly. Buffett's edge isn't intelligence. It's knowing which mood to trust — and which one to trade against. That's not genius. That's temperament.
MELI Commits to Moat‑building, Long‑term Growth Investments
“We prioritize investments that are most synergistic with our ecosystem and either deepen existing moats or create new ones. All of our investments are required to demonstrate a clear path to positive direct contribution under conservative assumptions, but we do...
Keep Cash Ready: Panic Fades, Strategy Persists
₹11 lakh crore investor wealth wiped out in just 4 sessions, With rising global tensions and market volatility, many investors are now asking: Should we follow Warren Buffett and keep cash ready? Fear is high in the market, but smart...
RST Meets Expectations, Valuation Improves, but Still Not Owned
#RST "in line with expectations". Looks like recovery ongoing under previous CEO. ShareScope has fwd p/e 10.3 falling to 9.2 and fwd Divvy 2.9% rising to 3.3%; not expensive. I don't hold.
Steep Uptrends Yield Sharp Reversals: MELI Faces Downside
The longer and steeper the uptrend, the more violent the reversion when it finally breaks. $MELI has compounded at almost a 40% CAGR over almost two decades. The stock is in a 40% drawdown. I could see more downside here, even though I...