Robustness Ratio Reveals True Competitive Strength
Nick Sleep's "robustness ratio," introduced in his 2005 Nomad Partnership letter, offers a fascinating lens through which to view a company’s competitive strength. The idea is simple yet powerful 💡: The robustness ratio compares the value a company provides to its customers to the amount retained for shareholders. A 🧵
Energy Stocks Poised for 10x Gains, Ignored
I sat down with @JosefSchachter, one of Canada's most respected energy analysts with 45+ years in the market. Crypto can be interesting, but energy stocks can easily do a 10-20x themselves. He told me energy stocks are about to 10x, and most...
High‑Quality Bonds: Simple, Reliable Diversifier for Equities
They're not foolproof (see: 2022), but high-quality bonds have been darn reliable diversifiers for equity exposure. Just add a bit of cash and you should be good to go. Sometimes the best answers really are the simplest ones. https://t.co/Eh3bgvN2Uz
Invest for 20 Years, Not Perfection: Choose Worthy Businesses
Nobody asks "is this the perfect marriage?" They ask "is this person worth building a life with?" Investors should think the same way. Not: "Is this the best stock in the market?" But: "Is this a business I'd be proud to own for 20...
Warren Buffett’s Sell Signals Predict Underperformance
With Fundamental Edge instructors Paul Johnson & Andrew Carr, we run the Applied Value Investing Certificate for Wall Street Prep (I don't consider myself a classic Value Investor by training, so Paul carriers the heavy lifting on Value Investing). On Friday...
IREN Should Remain Power Landlord, Not Neocloud
Lot's of people harping on $IREN because of this, and it's fair. In my report on neoclouds/power landlords, you can argue $IREN should just be a power landlord, not try and be a neocloud. https://t.co/ZqN97xWAFI
Banks See 7% Upside, Target S&P 500 at 7,650
JUST IN: The average 2026 S&P 500 target across 8 top banks is 7,650. Implying ~7% upside
Performance Chasing Undermines Moats, Prediction Markets Reveal
🔬 Research links: performance chasing behaviors, maintaining company moats, and analyzing prediction market data. https://t.co/5XjzGtBeBj image: https://t.co/kEt7UkA3wr https://t.co/vubYDKJDSc
Cloudflare Rebounds to $200s, Remains Top Software Pick
Still have whiplash from that panic selling in Cloudflare two weeks ago, but nice to see it stair stepping back into the 200s. Remains one of my favorite investment ideas in software land. (disclosure: long) $NET https://t.co/fqNKsf6sb0
OUST Posts Rapid Growth and Positive Q4 EBITDA
$OUST doing numbers. Company is exposed to all the right industries: - Physical AI - Smart infrastructure - Robotics Rapid revenue growth + Positive EBITDA in Q4.
Three Stocks Poised for AI‑Driven Wealth Surge
Thoughts? We discuss three stocks positioned to capture the next major wealth-building opportunity: Rocket Labs as a critical private space infrastructure play that will gain attention when SpaceX goes public, Micron as one of only three global producers of high...
ADTN Surges 146% Y/Y; Consider Long with Tight Stop
ADTN 52‑wk high $17.92; +146% Y/Y, mkt cap $1.45B. Drivers: Q4 beat, FCC exemption, analyst upgrades. Risk: TTM losses, possible overvaluation. Trade: scale into a long with tight stop. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Oracle's AI‑driven Multicloud Surge Fuels Bullish Upside
Multicloud+AI demand underpins ORCL. Key: AWS tie, RPO $553B funds buildout. Risk: rising debt, dilution, near‑term negative cash flow. Trade: buy pullback to $120–140. Rebound to $200+. —Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Apple’s Low CAPEX May Signal Growth Risk
Let’s compare Big Tech companies’ CAPEX spending—is this a problem for Big Tech? $AAPL has barely increased its CAPEX over the past 10 years. Some investors view this positively, seeing Apple’s business as highly efficient. However, CAPEX investments for Big Tech...
Small‑Cap Value Is Cheap—VIOV Offers Low‑Cost Long‑Term Bet
Small-cap value stocks look cheap. The VIOV ETF is a low-cost way to bet on their comeback, focusing on profitable small companies. Long-term play. Investing
Buffett's Pass on Tech Shows Discipline, Not Error
Buffett passed on Google, Amazon, and Walmart. Not because he was wrong about the businesses. Because he wasn't sure he understood them well enough to act with conviction. That's not a miss. That's discipline wearing a disguise.
Weighing Cash War Chest Against Full Market Exposure
Should you hold a cash "war chest" or stay 100% invested? There is no right or wrong answer, but there are two distinct schools of thought. Here is the breakdown of Optional Value vs. Cash Drag 🧵👇🏻
Stay Calm: Emotion Is the Real Investment Risk
Staying calm when others panic. Calm investors make better decisions. Emotion is often the real risk. #InvestorBehaviour #LongTermThinking https://t.co/0wls8rC4o1
Tech Stocks Deeply Discounted vs Projected Earnings Growth
Relative to projected earnings growth, the Tech sector is trading at a steep discount. via SocGen Kabra
Focus on Risk‑return, Not Fancy Financial Engineering
Financial engineering does not make a good product Risk always comes back It’s boring to say but this is why you focus on risk vs return and create allocations
LYC Posts 115% Revenue Surge on Strong Ex‑China Demand
$LYC pretty reasonable quarter with A$ revenues up 115% y/y on continued high pricing and first production of Dy/TB and Sm. Op margin looks good. The company cites continued strong ex-China demand for its products. During the qtr it extended...
IHP Thrives, ShareScope's Valuation Improves, Dividend Up
#IHP Update reads well and Transact platform continues to grow. ShareScope has fwd p/e 17 falling to 15.2 and fwd Divvy 3.8% rising to 4.2%; lot to like and nice payout. I don't hold.
NICL Appears Cheap After Cash Strip, but I Stay Out
#NICL good Update. Net Cash £59.8m (up). Potential disruption from Middle East dramas. ShareScope has fwd p/e 12.9 falling to 12.1 and fwd Divvy 4.9% rising to 5.4%; strip out cash and it looks cheap. I don't hold.
Top Deep‑Value Blogs to Bookmark for Hidden Gems
Some of the best deep value / special sits blogs I've started following over the last 12 months, a mix of private investors and funds, all worth bookmarking 👇 1) @everyonehatesp1: Small & micro-cap ideas with inflection and catalyst-rich trades 2) @MaiusPartners:...
AXS Shows Modest Accoya Growth, Yet Valuation Stretched
#AXS Update reads well with decent growth in Accoya volumes and value. ShareScope showing fwd p/e 31.7 2 years out; with debt it's a very high rating, so lot more growth needed.
XPS FY Update Boosts Appeal: Lower P/E, Higher Dividend
#XPS good FY Update, especially after a strong prior year. ShareScope has fwd p/e 14.8 falling to 13.7 and fwd Divvy 4% rising to 4.3%; still appealing.
Investors Prematurely Swapped Tech for Staples at 25x
Another great report from @MacroCharts, but this one stood out. Five weeks ago investors were dumping tech to buy staples at 25x. Whoops. https://t.co/kHSzcGfSN2
Investing at S&P 500 Highs Isn’t a Fear
One of bigger worries investors have is investing at all-time highs for the S&P 500. Should you have a fear of heights? Probably not. https://t.co/OmqSvwlcYt
Buffett Hints at Future Apple Buys, but Not Now
Buffett on CNBC a few weeks ago talking Apple (Berkshire profited $100B+ on AAPL and still owns $60B+). “Tim Cook couldn’t have done what Steve did, but Steve handed him a hand Steve would not have done as well.” “I sold...
Tech Drives EPS Surge, Up 15% for 2027
EPS estimates have been soaring, but it is actually coming from only three areas: materials, energy, and tech. Tech is simply amazing, as 2026 EPS estimates are up 11.3% YTD and up an incredible 15.1% for 2027. https://t.co/u40iPitzvC
BRE Poised for Takeover by LYC or MP
$BRE is a strong potential takeover target for either $LYC or $MP, given that Mrs. Rhineheart is a shareholder in all three companies.
Silver Miners Cheap, Cash‑flow Rich Amid Price Resilience
With silver prices proving resilient at these levels, miners are trading at some of the cheapest valuations in their history. These companies are delivering record cash flows with exceptionally high margins. Game on. https://t.co/a2yC5hgWq2 https://t.co/06A0bDqjf9
Fervo Energy S‑1 Reveals Geothermal Pipeline and Costs
Enhanced geothermal energy pioneer Fervo Energy filed its S-1 in advance of a planned IPO, offering a closer look at their development pipeline, current and projected capital costs, and more. @heatmap_news's @MattZeitlin drills down for some insights: https://t.co/vpluY58Osk https://t.co/Q1X1QDKuNb
Onto's Rigaku Stake Raises Valuation Risk, Trim Suggested
Onto buys 27% of Rigaku for $710M, bolstering X‑ray/CD‑SAXS tie‑up; strong cash but 105x P/E flags valuation risk. Trading insight: trim ONTO on strength; watch execution. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Goldman Forecasts S&P 500 Hitting 7% Gain by Year‑end
Goldman: “The US equity market should continue to make new highs in coming months on the back of continued earnings growth. We expect a 7% rise in the S&P 500 to our year-end target of 7600”
Sell S&P Puts to Boost Returns Beyond the Market
You can buy the S&P and beat 90% of stock pickers… Or you can buy the S&P and sell puts on it… and quietly move into the top 1% Same foundation. Slightly different approach. One just adds income on top of the market’s long...
Four Criteria to Spot Potential 10x Stocks
When looking for 10x stocks, I want to see: ✅ Explosive revenue growth ✅ A massive market opportunity ✅ Low or no debt ✅ Product people love If a company checks all 4 boxes, I dig in. What’s a stock that passes your test? $ALAB $UUUU $IREN
AWS Alone May Be Worth $2 Trillion, Boosting Amazon
Amazon (ie $AMZN) current market cap is $2.7 trillion. After the news tonight with Anthropic, it's possible that AWS (by itself) is worth at least $2 trillion and maybe the full $2.7 trillion in which case you get the rest of...
2028 S&P 500: Three Scenarios, Wide Outcome Range
I have mapped out a half dozen S&P 500 scenarios for yearend 2028, based on the 2027 earnings consensus. Granted, earnings can vary wildly from expectations, as can market psychology. If the Street gets it right on earnings, the super-bull...
Price Appreciation, Not Dividends, Drives Equity Returns
From Al Rappaport's paper, "Dividend Reinvestment, Price Appreciation and Capital Accumulation": "Do dividends rather than price appreciation really dominate equity returns? To the contrary, I will show that price appreciation is the sole source of investment returns that increase accumulated...
New 11%+ Yield ETF Boosts High‑Yield Portfolio
It is officially Dividend Week. Why Dividend Week? Because I’m obsessed with one thing: increasing the value that Dividendology provides. And over the past few months, I’ve been working on something behind the scenes that ties directly into that. Recently, we added an ETF...
2026 May Mirror 2023 Market Gains, Says Morgan Stanley
"...We respect the “wisdom of the crowd” and appreciate that last year, markets ultimately rose more than 16% on 12% earnings growth. In fact, with the US economy no longer as sensitive to oil prices, consumer sentiment and the level...
Dan Loeb Dumps CSGP, Citing Reckless CEO Spending
Dan Loeb sells out of $CSGP "CEO Andy Florance has continued what can only be seen as a reckless drain on a majority of the company's operating income into Homes,com and related acquisitions even as the share price has continued to...
Amazon's Customer Moat Fuels Late‑Blooming AI Advantage
$AMZN had the customer moat. Its AI story was delayed compared to its peers, but its massive customer base was an advantage that is now coming to fruition.
Most US Stocks Lag Treasury Bills, Buy the Market
The majority of US stocks (59%) have underperformed Treasury bills over their lifetime and 45% end up having a negative cumulative return. “Don’t look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack.” - Jack Bogle Video: https://t.co/yQSLZ1RFLj
S&P 500 Crosses Optimism Threshold, Majority Above Trend
A few weeks ago, fewer than half of the S&P 500 components were trading above their long-term trend. Today, the majority is. Participation has cleared the optimism threshold. Now let’s see if it can hold.
IMOM’s Record Year Driven by Global Momentum Strategy
In 2025, the Alpha Architect Int’l Quantitative Momentum ETF posted its strongest year yet. But was it all luck? In our new paper, we break down how $IMOM captured shifts across countries, currencies, and sectors. Read here: https://t.co/1qzsZ9X5xg Learn more: https://t.co/HJuy9YYuaP
Data Center Stocks Offer Hidden Multibagger Value
Excerpt from yesterday’s @GeoInvesting Weekly Wrap-Up.. I keep telling myself that I want to move away from investing in stocks tied to the data center theme, but I keep coming back to it because that’s where so many legit future multibagger...
Wall Street Remains Calm Amid Iran Naval Blockade
The U.S. Navy is actively blockading Iranian ports. The $VIX is at 17.21. The $SPY is at all-time highs. Either Wall Street has priced in the geopolitical risk perfectly — or this is the most complacent market since 2007. History rarely rewards this level...
Inside Vanguard's Massive Index Fund: Structure, AI, Governance
What does it take to run one of the world's largest index fund operations? Rodney Comegys of Vanguard breaks down the philosophy and mechanics — ownership structure, equity concentration, governance, private assets, and AI. https://t.co/KDr1BxQ58M With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @CanoeAI, and Ridgeline.