Focus on Proven Leaders, Watch for Pullbacks
Lock in this weekend if you feel like you missed most of the rally. Build a focus list of leaders that have already shown power and be ready for pullbacks and low risk spots. They may be subtle.
Traders Wager $760M on Oil Dip Before Hormuz Reopening
"...around 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister announced on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was open" Traders place $760 million bet on falling oil ahead of Hormuz announcement https://t.co/CGzgaSsWa9
Fast Rally Unfolds—How to Join Without Chasing
One of the fastest market rallies in years just unfolded. Now the challenge shifts: how to participate without chasing. We break down the price action, key levels, and where opportunities are forming. $SPY $QQQ $IWM $VIX $IBIT https://t.co/s4f2qRcsAE
Markets Rally on Ceasefire: Conviction or Buy‑the‑Dip?
My video for the week ahead: Markets Rally as US-Iran Ceasefire Extends - Conviction or 'Buy the Dip'? https://t.co/w1MCHHfY2k https://t.co/9RJlM8Up9V
S&P 500 Posts Historic Three‑Week Streak, Gains Accelerate
Records are made to be broken. First time in history the S&P 500 was up 3% for three consecutive weeks and each week gained more than the previous week. 🥇 https://t.co/fB3IpQSNbG
Vol Sellers Fade as Inverse Volatility Spikes, Then Stalls
From the $SPX low on 3/30 through 4/14, $SPX was up 9.8% while $SVIX (inverse vol) rocketed 31% higher. Since 4/14, $SPX is up another 2.3% while $SVIX has run out of gas, up a measly 0.7%. Vol sellers have...
Right‑angled Broadening Triangle Bullish Above 25,400
It is called a right angled broadening triangle It is bullish unless price retreats back below 25,400 Read about it in Edwards and Magee, but NEVER in an edition more recent than the 5th. The newer editions have been co-opted and corrupted...
April S&P New Highs Historically Signal Strong Year
3 new highs in April for the S&P 500. Interesting as strong as this month is, it doesn't see a ton of new ATHs. But the 19 other years it hit a new ATH in April saw the full year higher...
Market Optimism: 61% of S&P 500 Above 200‑day MA
61% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day MA. We are in the optimism zone, but not euphoric. Blow-off tops show up at 80%+ Lots of participation and very strong momentum.
S&P Posts Third Straight 3%+ Week, Rare Historical
Make that 3 consecutive 3%+ weeks for the S&P 500. The precedent? Week's ending: 6/5/2020 9/3/1982 That's it.
Market Appeared Set to Drop,
Looked like we might sell off into the close, but it was really just flat 130pm-4pm https://t.co/wPYLDl6exR
Friday Rally Sets up Painful Monday for Under‑allocated Investors
Big week and it seems like they're gonna run it up into the Friday close. Will be very interesting to see what Monday brings. Another gap higher and the under allocated folks are really going to be feeling the pain.
Hold Only Strong Stocks Through Earnings for Profit
Holding let it rides into ER comes with risk. I did hold $NFLX let it rides and just sold a rung of the ladder made really good $. I know not as much as I would had...
15‑Minute Opening Range Break Profits $CAR Long
$CAR made some money back on the long side. Literally all you have to do is play a 15 minute opening range break.
Quant's 600+ SP
A quant buddy told me on the lows that we’d slingshot 600+ SPZ and NATH before the end of April. Respect given for nailing that call. You know who you are. Wish I had followed… https://t.co/c5wCz1ApXJ
Bitcoin Rejects Key EMA Resistance for Now
#BTC Indeed this is the EMA that Bitcoin is rejecting from for the moment $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/kfFXjf6FIb
SPX Sets Record, Bitcoin Surpasses $75k
$SPX just hit a new ALL-TIME HIGH above 7100! 📈 Meanwhile, #Bitcoin is finally clearing $75k as risk appetite returns to the tape. 🚀 I'm also answering your questions on "Coil" patterns and music theory in today's Friday MAILBAG. 📊🎶🎺 CHART...
AVGO
$AVGO still watching 412 area in time. This name like so many needs to base . First level below is the gap. Take a look at your daily chart. No need for me to post mine
Current Rally Mirrors 2015‑2016 Market Pattern
So you gotta zoom in to see the details but something about this move felt familiar I think my only real notes would be a 50 WMA test, 30+ Vix and a double digit V after a prior 90% rally....
Secured Profits, Trimmed Risk, Enjoy Weekend Family Time
Always feels good taking profits into the weekend. Stop losses adjusted. Exposure reduced. It was a solid week in what's been mostly choppy conditions for a while now. Will be nice to spend time with the family and come back fresh on Monday.
Microsoft Rallies, Hits R3, Returns to S2
good intraday price action in $MSFT today. S2 buying. runs to R3. return trip to S2. https://t.co/kl1ZBogVBs
Buy VIX High, Transfer Risk Low—Don’t Wait
Everybody's asking me: "When's the next VIX spike, Alex?" I called Spike 1. I've been pointing at Spike 2 for weeks. But here's the truth — don't wait for the ice cream van that doesn't turn up. Probability is high. Certainty is not. Buy...
Current Rally Mirrors 2020 Surge, Gaps and Selloff
This is interesting because the May 14-June 8, 2020 rally has a few similarities to this rally. It rallied 14.6% in 17 trading days vs. 12.5% in 13 trading days so far. In 2020 there were 4 gaps vs. 3...
S&P 500’s Rare 13%+ Rally in 13 Days Since 1928
What a remarkable run. Here is every time since 1928 when the S&P 500 rallied to a record by at least 13% (rounded) in 13 days. Don't take this too seriously. https://t.co/YlnHmYAUlZ
All S&P 500 Stocks Show Early‑trading Trends Today
This is how every stock in the S&P 500 has performed so far in today's early trading
Took 6‑7% Profit After 99 SMA Rejection
$OKLO Wow big rejection at 99smma. Going to take my 6 or 7% profit and get out here heading into the weekend. Still a solid trade https://t.co/7xwdBhw0CZ
Science Meets Trend Following in New Moving Average Handbook
The Ultimate Moving Average Handbook: Bringing Science into the Art of Trend Following. Valeriy Zakamouline, a long-time contributor to the AA blog, has a great new book. High recommend for quant/trend geeks. https://t.co/LaMjdSaO6V https://t.co/GhX4f7qsBA
Stocks Rise, Doubt Grows: Unprecedented Bullish Paradox
Building on what @fundstrat said about fuel in the tank... AAII bulls at a four-week low and S&P 500 at ATHs? It happened this week and it has NEVER happened before. Stocks are going higher, yet doubt is increasing. That's a...
Ten‑day Ratio at 1.68, Below 1.97 Threshold
Sorry, we're not. Using today's intraday data the ten-day ratio is 1.68. Threshold is 1.97.
Gold Jumps 19%, Bulls Eye Key Resistance
Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Surges 19% - Bulls Test Key Resistance https://t.co/Vjtj8eVXWs $XAUUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/ssUIryqB5v
Quad Four: Historically the Bullest Phase of the Cycle
This feels like a Quad Poor rally. Does anyone know if we are in Quad Four right now? That historically is by far the most bullish of all the Quads.
Exited Short Position Just Before Breakout Confirmation
...and just like that, I'm out of that extra short stocks exposure playing the range top test. Looks like we have a breakout - no need to stand in front of the train. Now let's see if this holds
You Can Simultaneously Long and Short the Same Market
Going long & short the same mkt is neither a myth nor a cop-out. #USDJPY #forex https://t.co/nltrE65m4U
MSTR Squeeze Triggered: 146.25 Spike Sparks Massive Rally
Had been eyeing $MSTR as nice squeeze play, 146.25 trigger yesterday, insane follow through today https://t.co/7MouHIuqKf
BTC Tops 100‑day MA, but 200‑day Target Remains
$BTC will close above its 100 day MA for the 1st time since October. Does it mean the bear market is over? Not in my view. In the 2022 bear market it had a 2 month bounce that topped just...
High‑Spread LSTA Merger Arb: Big Reward, 35% Risk
$LSTA merger arb for the brave👇 Spread just blew out to 48% on a cash offer. Tender postponed, buyer is hunting for financing at "better terms." Buyer previously licensed LSTA's drug. They know the asset. They want it. This is a definitive...
Leveraged ETF Buying Likely Absorbs Market Stall
Seller but jeez. The "Stall" and leveraged ETF buying will likely absorb. Of course deep call rolls at the close is delta for sale. https://t.co/RXUSfWqvTr
Unwarranted $13 Oil Drop Likely Manipulation, Prices Set to Rebound
🪔🩸The current $13 decline in oil prices is unwarranted and appears to be pure market manipulation with the announcement being made ahead of the market open. Fundamentals haven’t changed meaningfully since yesterday. Expect oil prices to recover soon
Selling Early Is Just One of Six Tape Strategies
I did sell my BOS tier buy, a bit early- but that's only one of Six time frames we go over to approach the tape
Holding BTC, Targeting $84k, Shorting MSTR at 1
Back when i bought BTC at 69,420 I had a plan. Sell at JoshMan_Oracle price of 84,000 but by shorting $MSTR at 1.25 MNAV or higher. That's still the plan $IBIT
Contrarian Arbitrage: Long $TEAM, Short $SNDK
$TEAM Daily. AI star $SNDK set to replace bludgeoned software $TEAM in the Nasdaq-100 on Monday. A contrarian "arbitrage" pair trade would be Long $TEAM (or calls) and Short $SNDK (or puts). https://t.co/fVLrRiEHFK
Markets Rally, Oil Slumps Since March 30 Low
Since the March 30th bottom, here’s how returns have developed across the market: 🟢 SP500 +12% 🟢 MAG 7 +9% 🟢 Gold +6.9% 🟢 Bitcoin +15.6% 🔴 (WTI) Oil -18.3% 🔴 (Brent) Oil -17.0% 🟢 10 yr US Treasury Yields -12 bps https://t.co/LvmpZe8iqP
Don’t Short $CAR When Nasdaq Gains 1%
I will not short $CAR on a day the Nasdaq is up 1% I will not short $CAR on a day the Nasdaq is up 1% I will not short $CAR on a day the Nasdaq is up 1% I will not short...
XLK Rallies 20% in 13 Days, Nearing Record
XLK up more than 20% in the past 13 days, something we've only seen at: Covid lows 2009 lows 2002 lows And a handful of times in the dot-com bust/decline. Biggest difference is none were even CLOSE to an all-time high, which XLK is making...
Closed Ally and Carvana April Call Spreads
sold to close $ALLY Apr 42 calls and $CVNA Apr 24 Exp 352.50/382.50 call spreads
Nasdaq 100 Posts 13th Straight Gain, Rare Since 2013
With the gap higher on the open, the Nasdaq 100 is on pace for its 13th straight session's advance. Last time we had a move comparable to this consistency was July 2013. Haven't really seen runs like these (consistency) historically where...
J&J Earnings Fly Trade Targets 180% Return
J&J (JNJ) buyer 1000 May $230 calls $9.25 trades with the $240 calls that may be adjusting or new spread, earnings put fly trade good for 180% gain here to take
Bitcoin Unlikely to Break Lower Highs, Bear Market Persists
#BTC For Bitcoin to build renewed and sustained macro bullish momentum it would need to reclaim not just $82500 but also break its multi-month series of Lower Highs (Macro Downtrend) History suggests neither of these technical milestones will happen and that...
BTC Near $76K: Reset, Not Final Top
Crypto — Fri Apr 17. BTC $76,364 (+2.0%), ETH $2,398 (+2.3%), oil −9%+ after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely open." Third test of $76K this week. I think this one breaks. But I'd buy the retest of $76,800...
Hormuz Reopens, Markets Surge as Oil Plummets
STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS OPEN. WAR IS OVER?! Iran reopens the Strait. Oil down -13% $SPX at record highs. $NDX logs its longest win streak since 2009. Dollar easing, gold and $BTC ripping The single biggest lock on markets just cleared. US-Iran...