Prioritize Asymmetrical Risk-Reward Over Being Right
It’s not about being right or wrong on a trade. It’s about finding asymmetrical return/risk opportunities in your favor and then managing the outcome: https://t.co/HjjEH6k193
Contrarian Opportunity? Freee 4478 JP Faces Unexpected Negativity
Very surprised by the negativity surrounding Freee 4478 JP. I'm either completely wrong, or in it's a highly contrarian buy. https://t.co/ihtyiQ5SFt
Silver Rally Driven by Speculation, Not Fundamentals
At the time this trade had zero catalysts other than $JPM calling for $30 and everyone chasing $Silver at 110+. It's never hwere the crowd is looking/chasing and if you study the thread there were months of absolutely nothing happening outside...
TURB Spikes on After‑
$TURB 14x relative volume today, and with how strong this closed in after-hours, it's an obvious watch for tomorrow. Two potential plans here, one on the base over VWAP/closing range highs, and another on the simple break & base over after-hours...
Measure Return on Risk Against Total Capital Only
WARNING ROR must ALWAYS be measured as the % return of an individual trade against TOTAL nominal capital Ppl who tout ROR as a percent return against margin or options cost or an individual stock or similar are JUST PLAIN FOOLS playing...
Adapt Fast: Trade Few, Cut Losses, Take Profits
The 2026 market doesn't care about your 2025 playbook. Either evolve or get left behind. I’ve stopped chasing and started buying the "failed" moves. Undercuts for longs, uppercuts for shorts. Entering at the point of maximum pain for others is the...
Apple Dips Below Triangle; Watch MAG 7 Recovery
$AAPL broke down under minor triangle support today, & always important to monitor the "Generals" when they show meaningful strength or weakness @IBDinvestors @marketsurge While SPX and QQQ have proven range-bound in recent months, the action has proven...
Marvell's Strong Earnings Boost S&P 500 Inclusion Odds
Marvell $MRVL is one of our top candidates to potentially be added to the S&P 500 this month. Strong earnings today and it popped 15% after market. S&P 500 rebalance announcement will be tomorrow after close. https://t.co/lZz8qTXoSU
Chamath's SPAC Commands 10.5% NAV Premium, Out
Believe it or not but @chamath's current SPAC, $AEXA, trades at the highest NAV premium of all pre-deal SPACs (by a long shot). $AEXA trades at a 10.5% premium to NAV, while the next highest valued are below a 2.5% premium. Despite...
Live Market Recap: SPX, QQQ Rally at 5pm ET
We're going LIVE today at 5pm ET / 2pm ET for our daily market recap show, CHART THIS with Dave Keller. Excited to break down the latest charts and market observations as $SPX and $QQQ rallied hard into the...
Patience Beats Premature Entries: Trade With Smart Money Precision
99% of traders enter too early. Smart money waits for the precision entry. Price taps the order block, liquidity is taken, and the reaction begins. This is the difference between emotional trading and strategic trading. If you understand SMC and ICT concepts, the...
Blend of Tape Reading and Experience Guides QQQ Entry
"Steve, did you get long QQQ at 602.50 based on the tape or was it 20+ years of experience" --student at weekly review "It was a little bit of both. Earlier in the week there was a large opening drive from...
USD Breakout Tested at January High Ahead of NFP
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Breakout Faces Major Test at January High- NFP on Tap https://t.co/ww8j824xfZ $DXY Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/7sX9giMwmH
Leverage Kills: Margin Calls Trigger Violent Unwind
Korean retail investors had record margin debt. Bought the AI chip story with 30-40% down payments. Then oil spiked. Margin calls hit. Forced selling cascaded. This is the disposition effect in reverse. When everyone holds losers too long, the unwind is violent. The lesson:...
ES_F Weekly Hits 1.618 Extension, AVWAP at 6460
$ES_F bigger picture, weekly, still amazing topped right at the 1.618 extension, the 1.382 sits at lower value edge now, 6682.5, below that it gets real thin back to 6125 with AVWAP off 2025 low at 6460 important too https://t.co/dOkIMQUPwK
Markets Tumble $800B as Volatility Surges 70%
Brutal day, the S&P 500 has wiped out around $800 billion in market cap, falling 1.4%. The Dow Jones is having its worst day of 2026, down over 2% 📉 Meanwhile the VIX (volatility index) is up 17% and is now...
Employment and Retail Sales Reports Drop Tomorrow at 8:30 AM
Economic calendar shows we have the employment report and retail sales report at 8:30AM tomorrow.
Bitcoin May See More Upside; $69K Support Needed
Pretty standard correction, with likely more upside ahead. The first test of resistance doesn't trigger a breakout. However, I'd prefer to see $69K hold as support on #bitcoin. https://t.co/2U1sZLTnW5
Free Access to Live Trading Room + Unedited AI Notes
Little Note: Big Warning with complimentary access to my live trading room recording & (unedited) AI briefing notes. https://t.co/kpucMGgu60
High VIX Signals Tough Swing Trades, Stay Nimble
observation $VIX currently 25.18 makes for hard environment for swing trading and must stay nimble if day trading. My opinion, your wallet.
APP Must Close Above 498 to Confirm Rebound
$APP - Probably made an intermediate term low 3 weeks ago when it bottomed at 359. It needs a weekly close above the 10 week MA(currently at 498) to confirm that. https://t.co/g7pYhVC2tZ
Amazon's ER Gap Validates My Gap Trading Theory
$AMZN daily. Note the ER gap. What have I taught on first tests of gap? Playing out so far. https://t.co/37HPE2Lm5g
LVS Vulner
$LVS Daily. Short idea. Macau & Singapore focused now after selling Vegas properties. Disruption in air traffic in parts of Asia beyond Middle East adversely affects them. Technically ripe to lose 200-day m.a.. https://t.co/3yQJuxTnOV
Oil Signals Calm Iran Conflict, Stocks Set to Rise
Jim Cramer says the oil market is signaling the Iran war won't spiral, and that's bullish for stocks, per CNBC 🤦🏻♂️
Continuous Upward Trend Defines Bullishness for $ROST
Bullish charts keep going up. And when they stop going up, that's no longer bullish. But if they don't stop going up, then they don't stop being bullish. $ROST https://t.co/hHdgbWj9aO
Iran Risk Unpriced; Oil, USD, Yields Threaten Market Crash
I did a rant this morning live in my trading room of what to buy and what to avoid and what to short and my HIGH conviction Iran Risk Is Not Priced In - as I have been writing about...
Weak SPX Mirrors BTC: Market Correction Looms
SPX continues to be weak, as the market has not really durably moved higher in months. Same thing happened with BTC, and it eventually led to a correction https://t.co/P0cSGNfg90
Amazon's $AMZN: Breakout Above 225, Breakdown Below 200
$AMZN > 225 = breakout above all the moving averages $AMZN < 200 = breakdown of key support $AMZN between 200 and 225 = 💤 https://t.co/GbWTIoHDaR
Prioritize Risk‑Reward Management Over Market Timing
If you want to make real money in the market consistently, stop trying to call tops and bottoms and Monday-morning quarterbacking what you could have done. Focus on managing risk relative to reward and turning over your edge. Then, your...
Defensive Leadership Erodes Breadth; Demand Real Bullish
Defensive leadership getting smashed which will erode those "breadth" metrics.... But please...cherry pick some bullish stuff for me.... *Note - Dogshit stocks rallying doesn't count.
Beware of Hype‑driven Breakouts and Silent Failures
$XLV - Failed breakout...annoying.... I would avoid those who share the breakouts - then go radio silent when they fail. It's called intellectual dishonesty... https://t.co/OK82rfxZZU
Fed Cuts Rates, yet 10-Year Yields Climb
since @federalreserve starting cutting rates this cycle (Sep '24), U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have risen... the green circles show the rate cuts since... https://t.co/g34w7tO0BZ
Boston Scientific Slides to 52‑Week Low, Down 34%
Boston Scientific $BSX -34.1% from highs... another contestant on the 52-week new lows list... https://t.co/MCT33YSBqJ
Marvell Options Signal ~$11 Move, 89.5% Volatility
Live look at $MRVL chart ahead of its scheduled earnings today. Options expiring March 20th show an implied volatility reading of 89.5%, which is about a (+/-) $11.41 move from the underlying stock.
ZEB Outperforms TSX Financials Across All Timeframes
while the Canadian bank industry group $ZEB (inside of financials) has been strong, the $TSX financial sector itself has not been strong, relative to the broader index itself... here's $XFN vs. $TSX on 4-time frames: top right: 8/20EMA top left: 20EMA/50SMA bottom left:...
CRM Poised for Breakout, Eyeing $205 Resistance
$CRM putting some into let it ride. Still own trade shares. 205 next level on radar entry to the overhead gap https://t.co/aLYT4HZjaj
Geopolitics Ignored by HFT, Active Management Becomes Vital
The HFT algos/CTA trend followers don't discount geopolitics very well. If @hkuppy is right, he makes a real case why active management is of ultimate importance when there is a real global change. The VIX is not mean reverting this time,...
Small‑cap Surge Signals Regime Shift Away From Growth
S&P 600 up 9% YTD. S&P 500 flat. Tech lagging. Energy leading. Value crushing growth. This isn't a head fake. This is a regime change. The small-cap rotation is real and it's getting started. https://t.co/AYVusIGbRd
Watch the Metric Near Critical 44 Threshold
FWIW - Sure feels like something to keep a close eye on no now that we've arrived at 43.9999. https://t.co/00dDXuJBOI
Crypto Loses $80B as Markets Turn Volatile
Another volatile day is shaping up for markets. Stocks and crypto started green but have now turned red while oil jumps 5% on the day. $80,000,000,000 wiped from crypto alone https://t.co/EKhcvl5hmA
Buying Breakdowns, Selling at Breakout Levels—Missing the Move
You get that feeling the tape is heavy, like they want to open the floodgates. Then you remember how choppy it’s been — breakdowns get bought, only to be sold right at potential breakout levels. https://t.co/CD3aDoYpDA
Iran Tensions Fail to Boost Bonds, Rates Keep Climbing
Bonds have not gotten the safe haven bid since Iran action commenced last Friday evening. $TLT - Rates still moving higher.
Third Point Secures New, Undisclosed Stake in Generac
$GNRC Dan Loeb’s THIRD POINT has a big new stake in Generac Holdings (GNRC). NEW, previously undisclosed CONFIRMED
Trader Liquidates Payday Bets Across Multiple Stocks
Sold paydays today on many names $BX $MC $ONDS $SNOW $ZS and sold a rung of the ladder on $HOOD
Explore EWY Volatility Patterns with Handy YFinance Toolkit
The recent action in EWY fits a pattern that happens frequently enough to be worth understanding the SHAPE of its vol. You will find: 🌙handy measures 🌙inspiration for your own exploration 🌙GIT notebook to get you started with yfinance data https://t.co/MkdqLvqfC6 https://t.co/LDHZibQS9H
IWM Rejects 50‑Day MA, Rolling Top Threatens
$IWM Daily. Rejection at 50-day m.a. for small caps, as possibility of rolling top since January more ominous. Watch back below $255 for confirmation. https://t.co/rbUjHSmmL3
BTC's Bear Bounce Targets Falling 100‑Day MA
$BTC - Made a multi week low a month ago. The minimal target for this bear market bounce is the 100 day MA, which it has traded below since October 10. The 100 day MA is currently around 82900 but...
Software Stocks Surge on Insider Buys and Double Earnings Play
CRM big push in Software today as well, call fly earnings play now more than a double, seeing a lot of these names rally with insider buys, buybacks into the Software is Dead move
SPY Breakout Above 690 Targets All‑time High
$SPY - a breakout above 689.00-690.00 sets the stage for a move to retest all time highs.
Fear & Greed Index Plummets 50% Since September
Fear & Greed is down nearly 50% from September “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” https://t.co/Y7GnXgOPPv