Today's American Stocks Pulse
Goldman Sachs lifts S&P 500 year‑end target, dismisses bubble fears
Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the S&P 500’s year‑end level, citing continued earnings strength, and said the market is not in a bubble. Analysts also note a potential melt‑up could push the index toward 8,000 if momentum holds.
Stocks Slide After Weak February Jobs Report
The episode breaks down the surprisingly weak February jobs report, which showed a loss of 92,000 jobs and a rise in unemployment to 4.4%, highlighting sectoral declines in health care, construction, manufacturing, and hospitality. WSJ economics reporter Justin Layhart explains how immigration limits and volatile labor data affect job growth expectations and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, suggesting the possibility of rate cuts later in the year. The discussion also touches on the broader market fallout, with stocks sliding amid rising oil prices due to the Middle East conflict, and includes political updates such as Trump’s nomination of Mark Wayne Mullen for DHS and his hard‑line stance on immigration and Iran.
Citi Advises Holding Off Equities Amid Soaring Oil
“We see no reason to actively add equity exposure at this time as risk/reward will improve from either price action or a path to de-escaltion forming:” Citi’s Kaiser. The oil VIX reached its highest level other than during COVID since...
Iran Conflict Shatters Fragile S&P 500 Range
The S&P 500 spent months holding in a tight 6,800–7,000 range, yet the options market signaled fragility beneath the surface. The Iran conflict finally broke the equilibrium as we saw play out last week. Check out our weekly analysis: https://t.co/UMX9NhD0Z1
Did Trump Force China's Hand? Beijing Nears 500-Jet Boeing Deal Ahead Of Xi Summit
Boeing is reportedly close to securing a record 500‑plane order from China, primarily 737 Max jets, with an additional 100 wide‑body aircraft under discussion. Sources say the deal could be unveiled during President Trump’s Beijing visit from March 31 to...
Preparing for a Data-Heavy Week: CPI, GDP, Earnings
busy week ahead with CPI GDP $ORCL $PATH $ADBE earnings and lots of news flow. Get my game plan tomorrow: https://t.co/YtTTmqCyAJ https://t.co/IOFyfaYqny
Stock Volatility Gap Hits 2008 Levels, Options Soar
Market stress is surging at a rapid pace: The spread between the average 9-month volatility of S&P 500 stocks and the S&P 500 index's 9-month volatility is up to 18 points, the highest since 2008. This spread has DOUBLED over the last...
Fed Governor Miran Says Job Losses in February Add to the Case for More Interest Rate Cuts
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said the February jobs report, which showed a loss of 92,000 non‑farm payrolls, strengthens the case for additional rate cuts. He argued that inflation is not a pressing problem and that monetary policy is currently...
Microsoft's Bullish Reversal Likely Avoids 200‑week MA
$MSFT - After almost hitting its 200 week MA last week we had a bullish reversal this week so I don't expect it to hit the 200 week MA anymore in March. An intermediate term low is probably in but...
US Private Credit Stocks Face Massive Outflows and Declines
⚠️US private credit stocks are under PRESSURE: Blue Owl stock is down -50% in 12 months, dropping below its $10 listing price from 2021. Meanwhile, Blackstone's $82 billion private credit fund saw -$1.7 billion in net OUTFLOWS over the last month👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-private-credit-stocks-are-under-heavy-pressure
Dollar Falls After Weak U.S. Jobs Data
U.S. non‑farm payrolls unexpectedly dropped 92,000 in February, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.4% and prompting analysts to anticipate further Federal Reserve rate cuts. The dollar index (DXY) slipped to 99.063 from 99.308 as markets digested the weaker labor...
Junk Bond Drop Signals Real Economic Stress
High yield credit (HYG) down 0.5% on March 6th. When junk bonds sell off alongside equities, it means credit markets are sniffing out real economic stress, not just a volatility event. Watch HYG. It leads. Always. https://t.co/HpbzOsBALw
Only Staples and Energy Up: Survival Trade, Not Growth Scare
Only two sectors green on March 6th: Consumer Staples (+0.4%) and Energy (+0.2%). Tech -2.1%. Discretionary -1.8%. Financials -1.3%. When people buy Cheerios and oil but sell everything else, you're not in a growth scare. You're in a survival trade. https://t.co/8RrBLVWIBN
The Market Brief
The market is eyeing the upcoming Non‑Farm Payroll and U.S. retail‑sales releases after a week of volatility sparked by the U.S.–Iran conflict. Geopolitical tension has nudged the S&P 500 outlook toward the downside, yet it has not yet altered payroll expectations,...
Industrials Overvalued at 26x P/E, Staples Match Tech
S&P 500 sector valuations... Industrials a nosebleed 26x P/E Staples same as Info Tech https://t.co/p5OdBIqFE8
Small‑cap Slump Signals Delayed Bull Market Confirmation
Russell 2000 down 2.3%. Small caps are the canary. They need cheap credit, domestic demand, and labor stability. They have none of those right now. If you're waiting for small cap leadership to confirm a bull market, you'll be waiting a while. https://t.co/mDOKLhcosE
VIX Spikes Often Precede Stock Rebounds—Still Just Probabilities
The $VIX increased 48% this week, the 21st biggest weekly spike ever. What has happened in the past following the biggest $VIX spikes? Stocks have tended to bounce back with above-average forward returns. Does this always happen? No. There are no certainties in markets,...
SMH Weakens; Crude Spike Needed for Risk Reversal
$SMH gradually starting to show more and more weakness as the Software malaise has begun to shift to Semis & Memory. While this is nearing "short-term" support, the short-term trend break & undercut of Tuesday's lows is still a...
Re‑entering Consumer Staples at Lower Prices
@TheStreetPro Starting to Buy We sold almost all our consumer staples much higher a few weeks ago.T This afternoon I began to buy back and I am working on a scale lower in consumer staples now — (PG $153.67) , (PEP $157.73)...
Fed Faces Dual Threat: Rising Inflation and Unemployment
The Fed’s biggest fear has always been having to choose between fighting inflation and protecting jobs. Friday’s employment report brought that dilemma a step closer. “Let’s not overreact to one month’s numbers, but an environment in which inflation is rising and...
Oil Surge Drives Markets; Ex‑Dolphin Shares TSLA Insight
Tonight on "The Danny Moses Show" @scrippsnews I sit down w/@RLKJ44 & we discuss his journey from @CuseFootball to @MiamiDolphins to his 16 hour swim to shore & his views on the markets. I discuss how the move in Oil...
SPX Closes Weekly Sell‑off, Bearish Outlook Persists
SPX ( US500 ) Sells closed fully today to end the week. Although we still remain bearish on SPX , especially after today's "too bad" US jobs data but we also have to understand that indices can see sharp pullbacks on...
Investors Fear Missing Post‑War Rally More Than Downside
An interesting feature of this market, similar to what @kevinmuir has pointed out ... Is that most of my clients are less worried about the downside in stocks and EMFX ... and more worried about missing the rip when the...
Simple Tactical Trade on AVGO Earnings Yields 2.4% Gain
Sometimes we make it harder than it has to be. $avgo had a good response to earnings yesterday. We discussed in 8:50 call u can buy vs gap pivot of $323. It only hit $327...
Jobs Data Sparks Early Volatility Across Crypto, Oil, Tech
🔥 Here’s my #stickynote for March 6, 2026: Big macro morning with Nonfarm Payrolls and Retail Sales at 8:30am — these numbers could move the entire market at the open. Expect volatility right out of the gate as traders react to...
S&P 500 Faces Frequent 1%+ Drops Ahead
The S&P 500 fell 1.3% today, its 5th daily decline so far this year with a loss above 1%. Expect to see many more of these days in the coming weeks/months - the average year since 1928 has 29...
Crude Soars 35% While S&P Bare
WTI crude up 35% on the week, one of the best weeks in history. S&P 500 down only 2%? And energy up only 1%? Markets sometimes don't make sense.
New Lindy Effect ETF Targets 50‑Year‑Old Companies
New filing for a Lindy Effect ETF.. which will only hold companies that are over 50yrs old. Some other ones incl Insurance ETF (haven't seen one of those in a long time). New issuer I believe too. https://t.co/c1L9kTa7hU
Weekend Risk‑off May Trap SPX at 6800
risk off into weekend...lack of conflict over weekend may push SPX back into its 6800 box
S
SPs likely to close with new momentum LOWS (basis 2 per ROC) and closing below 6800 as well, (though pick a number, any number....lol) https://t.co/qSqXTmUpt9
Oracle and OpenAI Scrap Texas Data Center Expansion Plans
ORACLE $ORCL AND OPENAI ENDS PLANS TO EXPAND TEXAS DATA CENTER SITE: BBG Timber $AAOI $BE $AEHR $NVDA $SMH hello $SPX $6700 incoming ;-) As posted Feb 26th: There Are Better Things To Trade Than Nvidia https://t.co/LGkqEyi3XF
Profits Locked on Multiple Longs After S&P Dip
With S and P cash -61 handles we took profits in following longs: $APO $BX $MX $C $KKR $SPY $QQQ
Iran War's Ripple Effect on Economy and Markets
Great to have @Seawolfcap back for this week's "FND" on our WAWD @Substack. We discuss the impact of the war in Iran on the economy & markets & share some thoughts on $CVNA $AXP $APO #GOLD #ENERGY $RVI #privatecredit #AI...
Market Ignoring Looming Risks as SPY Nears Peak
SPY is 2.4% from its all-time high. In the middle of a war. With oil spiking. With yields surging. The market hasn't priced in the worst case. It hasn't even priced in the base case. That's the scariest part. https://t.co/d7MxjrSyrG
S&P 500 Closes Above Midpoint
The $SPX has closed above its intra-day mid-point for 8 straight days and 13/14. 3 1/2 hours left to do it again...
S&P 500 Multiplies Tenfold Since 2009 Low
On March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 set a closing low of 676.53. Today, it's trading at 6,765.3
Cboe Crude Oil Volatility Spikes to 2020 High
A Cboe measure of crude oil volatility has surged to its highest level since 2020 https://t.co/4FBZMvXK9Y
Oil Rises While Mag 7 Shows Bearish Signals
Friday's Playbook: Oil Surging. Bearish Signals Across the Mag 7. See How We’re Positioning. https://t.co/Ab25axAjJe via @hedgeye
Cutting Positions, Shifting Cash Amid US Equity Beta Break
Macro Pros, You'll see I'm down to 25 positions in Portfolio Solutions (from 30). All incremental Cash goes into FDRXX for me because the account is at Fidelity Raising Cash on the US Equity Beta TREND break https://t.co/b9jSa8qkmu
Tech Beats Energy; Early Headlines Don't Ensure Profit
Tech has outperformed energy the past 5 days. Proving once again, you can have the headlines a week early, but that doesn't mean you'll make 💰.
Short Sellers Squeezed, Forced to Cover Positions Rapidly
CHART OF THE DAY: We Are Pressing Our Shorts Into Their Covers https://t.co/6ATbUtxX8X via @hedgeye
WTI Surge Pushes US Gas to $3
With WTI now at $87, the oil price spike is now definitely in the big-enough-to-matter-to-the-US-domestic-economy zone. National average gas price is headed to about $3.80; was just $2.90 at start of Feb. I expect this increase will prove extremely popular.
All Assets Falling Signals Liquidity Crunch, Not Rotation
The 10-year yield has risen four consecutive sessions to 4.14%. Stocks down. Bonds down. Oil up. Gold down. When everything sells off together, it's not a rotation. It's a liquidity event. https://t.co/6whtUyh3CH
Long-Term Inflation Expectations Hit April Low, Treasury Yields Diverge
Long-term inflation expectations have fallen to the lowest since April, based on 5-year 5-year forward breakeven rates. Yields on 10-year Treasuries seem to be trading on a different dynamic. https://t.co/hStpU22gbY
SPY Plummets Amid Weak Breadth, Labor Cracks, Iran Tension
SPY getting crushed taking out yesterday lows, as noted yesterday, worst breadth seen in a long-time and warned of more cracks likely in the labor market which we saw today, also felt nobody wanted to hold this market into the...
Slugfation Ahead: Weak Jobs, Sticky Inflation
After seeing the weak jobs data, my view is ever stronger that "slugfation" (sluggish economic growth coupled with sticky inflation) lies ahead. @thestreetpro @dougkass @tomkeene @ferrotv @business @SquawkCNBC @CNBCFastMoney @HalftimeReport @ScottWapnerCNBC @carlquintanilla @jimcramer @pboockvar @guyadami @saraeisen @SullyCNBC @WhitneyTilson @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick
Job Losses Surge, Unemployment Rises to 4.4%
The economy shed 92,000 jobs in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Revisions subtracted 69,000 in December and January from previously reported job growth, leading to negative job growth in December.
VIX Spikes 12%—Fear Hits All at Once
VIX at 23.75. Up 12% in a single session. Two weeks ago it was under 18. Fear doesn't arrive gradually. It arrives all at once. And we're not even past the first act. https://t.co/7Fy3joZKAi
Dow Plunges as Supply Chain Enters Cardiac Arrest
Dow down 785 points on March 5. Worst week since October. Oil at $81. Yields rising. VIX spiking. And somehow, everyone's still debating whether this is a "healthy pullback." There is nothing healthy about a supply chain in cardiac arrest. https://t.co/t59DwX0YJy
S&P Holds Support; Jobs Data Could Shift Momentum
$SPX :6775 is active support, then the lows of the week at 6710. Jobs report at 8:30 could change the picture — the street is modeling ~+55k, and in-line or a little stronger would be better than a miss. https://t.co/qIBCw3h3lN
Waller Warns Hot PCE Inflation, Energy Shock Risk
Fed governor Chris Waller on Bloomberg TV: January PCE inflation is going to be hot. The energy shock is a new risk. If the labor market is solid, "It does say you can sit there and wait."