Today's American Stocks Pulse
Dow climbs nearly 200 points to record close as oil eases on Iran truce hopes
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped about 200 points, closing at a fresh all‑time high. The rally was driven by a pullback in oil prices after optimism surrounding a potential Iran truce. Markets remained cautious amid mixed political signals.
Goldilocks Makes Surprise Cameo In US Services Sector
The Institute for Supply Management released a surprisingly strong services‑sector PMI on March 4, showing the index climb to 55.2, well above the 53.5 consensus. New orders surged 4.1% month‑over‑month and employment added roughly 150,000 jobs, underscoring robust demand. Analysts dubbed the reading a "Goldilocks" moment, where growth remains solid without igniting inflationary pressure. The upbeat data suggests the services economy is heating up faster than many forecasts anticipated.
Equal‑Weighted Index Holds, Cap‑Weighted Faces 10% Risk
At the same time, the equal-weighted price index remains in a solid uptrend and unlike its cap-weighted sibling is not over its skis from a trend perspective. The broader market is well-grounded from a price, breadth, earnings, and valuation perspective. It’s the...
Patience Required as Volatility Clouds Bullish Market
There are still a good number of stocks forming bases following strong prior uptrends, and so far market pressure has not caused widespread technical damage. However, after running my stock screens, the dominant theme is right-side volatility — which often...
Morning Market Brief
In this Morning Market Brief, Lars Fuller explains the S&P's rebound after a 2.5% drop, attributing it to U.S. actions securing oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which lowered oil prices from $77 to the $74‑$75 range. He predicts...
US Economy's Quiet Bullish Turn Amid Bearish Sentiment
Everyone is getting increasingly bearish here, and while I understand the concern, the macro backdrop is improving a lot, especially in the US - that we can measure live with Nowcast IQ There is a very very underappreciated comeback in the...
Market Panic Fizzles: No Downside Follow‑Through
MARKET PANIC WITHOUT FOLLOW-THROUGH Just 24 hours ago, fear was dominating sentiment. Many commentators were predicting a market crash after $SPY opened below the key $675 level, briefly falling to around $669. However, the market quickly proved those fears wrong. Instead of...
A Washout Bottom?
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) displayed a potential reversal on Tuesday, opening lower, slipping further, then rallying to close the session in positive territory. The move was reinforced by a bullish divergence on the 5‑day Relative Strength Index and trading...
Tech Leads Early; Jobs/Services Data Drives Volatility
March 4, 2026 📊 Insight: Jobs + services data = volatility window 8:15–10:00. Watching tech strength early with $NVDA/$MSTR bid. Services miss could pressure risk. $AVGO earnings tonight key for semis. Patience at the open — let data hit first. 0815 – ADP...
Crude Surges 10%—Energy Stocks Diverge, Reversal Likely
While Crude remains more than 10% higher than last Friday's close in two trading sessions, stocks like Exxon $XOM are at lower levels from last Fri close after its steep runup. @IBDinvestors @marketsurge Similar to Gold stocks starting to...
Jim Cramer Has a Clear Message for Investors During Iran War: Stay in the Game
CNBC host Jim Cramer told investors not to panic amid the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict, emphasizing that staying invested is more effective than trying to time the market. After an opening slump that saw the Dow down over 1,200 points and...
Key Factors for Trusting Today's Market Bounce
Can this bounce be trusted.. or not??. I'll break out WHAT needs to happen to have more confidence, today at 2:25 EST on @FoxBusiness w/ @cvpayne
Market Values Future Risk over Current Earnings
MongoDB: Revenue up 27%. Beat on earnings. Rule of 40. Record cash flow. Stock: Down 22%. Why? Two top execs left. Guidance light. The market doesn't care what you did. It cares what you're about to lose. https://t.co/u0W819CWth
TMTB EOD Wrap: Software Vs. Semis
Software equities outperformed semiconductors sharply, driving the IGV‑SOX performance spread to a 10‑year high of 14.70% on a six‑day rolling basis. This marks the largest spread since the index’s inception, with only six days in the past decade exceeding a...
Iran's Secret Offer Triggers Market Whipsaw; Focus on Long Treasuries
Iran made a "secret" offer to negotiate. Futures surged. You are about to be whipsawed. Again. The pattern: Gap down. War headline. Recover. Peace headline. Surge. Escalation headline. Flush. Rinse. Repeat. The only thing that matters is long duration Treasuries. That is your signal for what's...
Small‑cap Slump Exposes Market Weakness Despite Dow Rally
Everyone is watching the Dow recover 800 points off its lows. Nobody is watching IWM. Down 1.7%. Hit $253 intraday. Back to November levels. Small caps don't lie. They don't have buyback programs to prop them up. The canary is choking. https://t.co/N8FcBwc8lA
TMTB: Gitlab (GTLB) Buyside Bogeys
GitLab (GTLB) heads into its quarterly earnings call at 4:05 pm, with an implied 15% price move priced in by the market. The stock has tumbled 50% since the end of October and now trades at roughly three times forward revenue,...
S&P Outpaces Russell, Growth Stocks Lead Rally
$SPX up about double $RSP and 57% of large cap stocks are advancing this morning. Large cap growth leading the drive, up 1.28% compared to LC Value up 0.31%.
Software Oversold; Quality Stocks Near Bottom, Ready to Rise
Software is *very* oversold and likely bottoming $IGV Our portfolio has exposure to quality software stocks which have been unfairly caught in the selloff and appear poised for a multi-month run. https://t.co/9W3aDdLK3Q https://t.co/Ursw6tsRqw
What We Just Learned About The Dollar
The dollar continues to function as a global safe‑haven asset even amid acute crises, reaffirming its appeal to risk‑averse investors. Simultaneously, elevated U.S. Treasury yields are drawing capital despite lingering concerns over fiscal deficits and policy uncertainty. Market data shows...
Oversold AI, Cybersecurity, Infra Stocks Poised for Rally
AI, cybersecurity and infrastructure software stocks are *very* oversold. When the market volatility subsides, these growth stocks likely to embark on multi-month rally.
Alphabet's Head‑Shoulder Pattern May Signal Bull Return
"If it is obvious, it is obviously wrong." George Granville Alphabet is creating a picture perfect head and shoulder top. Many expect this to resolve lower. What if it doesn't? If this one breaks higher, it would be a clue the...
Markets Face Redemptions, Housing Woes, and AI Optimism
Animal Spirits: A Wave of Redemptions Geopolitics vs the stock market vs AI Is inflation risk back? Is it time for a correction? The optimistic view on AI The most broken housing market in America The private credit crisis of confidence & more https://t.co/3VV58HRcdq https://t.co/V5eIvRDjMe
Iran's Turmoil Hurts Both Sides of K‑shaped Economy
Between falling stock prices and rising gas prices, events in Iran are negatively impacting both ends of the K-Shaped Economy.
Circuit Breakers Both Cause and Signal Investor Confidence Decline
Just the usual reminder that while circuit breakers are seen as an output of falling investor confidence, they are also an input. And there, repetition matters.
Shorted Indices, S&P Futures Spike, Positions Closed
We shorted the Indices on this BS report. The S and P futures ripped (+28 handles) and we put them out: * $SPY $682.35 * $QQQ $604.37 @dougkass @thestreetpro @tomkeene @business
January Effect Predicts a Strong USD All Year
Yes, the January Effect is my leading theory for this year -- strong USD throughout the rest of the year
SPX Futures Slip 3 Points After SPY Reclaims Range
$spx futures -3 as today settles out a bit after $spy hit $669 and reclaimed $675 to get home back on the range https://t.co/NY794d92MH
South Korea Market Poised for Tier‑2 Breakout
If that was my market BOS would be at Tier#2 this morning. With two left in case
Inflation Nowcast Accelerates, Raising Q3 Bond Volatility
LIVE Shot of our Inflation Nowcast Accelerating into #Quad3 in Bond Market Volatility terms https://t.co/cTSAqYA6P7
Software Climbs over 1% on Bullish Pattern Signal
Software up more than 1% today. @FrankCappelleri shared this potentially bullish pattern this morning. So far, so good. https://t.co/qlwNHx7eF2
SPX Beats Midpoint Yet Slides 50bps in 12 Days
Odd stat of the day: the $SPX has closed ABOVE its intra-day midpoint in 11/12 days. It's down a net 50 bps over that time span.
S&P Holds 6800 Support as VIX Surges to 28
The "Fog of War" hit the tape today. 🌫️ $SPX salvaged support at 6800 after a brutal open, but the $VIX spiking to 28 is a major red flag. I’m also honoring the late legend John Murphy and applying...
Fed Warns Iran Conflict Could Spark Lasting Inflation Shock
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said his outlook, up until a few days ago, supported maintaining a general easing bias. Inflation has been on a trajectory of "gently heading down" while there's no evidence the labor market is tightening. But...
US Valuation Premium Shrinks as Global Earnings Surge
Global markets are at or near all-time highs, supported by strong earnings growth around the world. The rest of the world is outperforming the US on a combination of better earnings growth, competitive payout ratios, and lower valuations. As such,...
Oil Levels Dictate Market Peaks During Exogenous Shocks
Updated chart of our 1-variable stock market. This is how markets behave during exogenous shocks - stocks need oil to peak. Aftermath eco forecasts rarely matter. Same thing happened last year, but with trade uncertainty. Need something to the...
Preserve Capital, Tighten Stops Until Post‑conflict Rally
As always, risk management is paramount. In a market under distribution, tightening stops and prioritizing capital preservation isn’t just prudent — it’s essential. When the tape refuses to reward low-risk setups and breakouts fail to follow through, discipline becomes your greatest...
Fed Sees Stable Labor, Cautious Optimism, Future Rate Cuts
NY Fed President John Williams with a speech that marks to market his outlook, one that has few changes from recent commentary out of Fed leadership: Labor market has shown “promising signs of stabilization.” Despite a “lack of headway” on...
Platinum Chart Signals Impending Head‑and‑shoulders Reversal
Charts can always morph, but it looks to me that the Platinum party is about to be interrupted by a head and shoulders pattern. I am not allowing replies on this because I have no interest in reading what you...
Financials Surge, Magnetizing 2024‑25 First‑Half Pivot
Financials rally back to the underbelly of the 2024 and 2025 1H pivot. So far it’s acting like a magnet... $XLF https://t.co/jXBzQnKMxZ
VVIX Above 125 Signals 5‑Day Positive Returns
VVIX >125 this AM correlates with pretty positive forward returns >=5 days out https://t.co/FCX5fvZMOi https://t.co/Tn8krhl4YQ
IGV Holds $80, Forms
$igv held $80 and made a higher low like many Software names including $msft $now $orcl. For tactical Cash flow
SPY Rebounds to $682, Easing Market Pressure
Yes. Pretty amazing that $spy reclaimed $675 to relieve some pressure. Now it’s $682+ to manage
Semiconductor Pullback Signals Broader Market Volatility
Joining @CNBCTheExchange in an hour to discuss market volatility, $SPX, and what the pullback in former leaders like $MU signals for semis #fairleadstrategies
Market Likely to Reverse; Watch 6800 Threshold
Morning reaction up was best play of the day...now what? No leadership shares making new highs on the day (T and VZ do not count.) Close under or over 6800? Market rarely pulls same move two days in...
Software Stocks Rebound, Setting Higher Lows
Some software went green again and some of them keep making higher lows $msft $igv $now
20% Drop Could Trigger Full Market Rout
Probably 15% to 20% coming on the downside The problem is that 20% can become a complete rout https://t.co/7zx4utMhwU
Risk-Off Sweep: Major Indices, Crypto, and Metals Plunge
Risk is off today: S&P 500 -2.2% Bitcoin -2.2% Nasdaq 100 -2.4% R2000 -3.4% Gold -4.7% EAFE -4.9% Emerging Mkts -6.7% Silver -8.9%
Bond Volatility Stocks TW, MKTX Signal Market Trouble
Bond Volatility winners $TW $MKTX also always a good market hedge / indicator of trouble coming
Stocks May Need to Tumble as Bonds Buy Crash Insurance
The SPX is now down ~2.5%. As the red annotations show, the 10-year yield is 5 bps lower to 4.06%. Bonds are being bought as crash insurance. This probably means stocks have to crash to keep bonds from trading back to 4.11%. https://t.co/Ks8NfeSfzT
Historical Feb‑March Weakness Predicts Upcoming Market Slip
It is what it is, weakness in February and the early parts of March are quite common the past two decades. We've been saying expect a banana peel and we are on it. https://t.co/fTK460vLTF