Today's Bonds Pulse
US Treasury market steadies after Iran conflict sparks volatility
The US Treasury market has settled back to pre‑war calm following turbulence triggered by the Iran conflict, and expectations for bond‑market swings have fallen to near their lowest level of the year. Meanwhile, 30‑year Treasury yields slipped from a 19‑year high as optimism builds.
Munis Steady, New-Issue Calendar Grows to $13.5B
Municipal bond prices held steady on Friday as U.S. Treasury yields slipped back into the 4.20‑4.30% range, a level BofA strategists deem neutral for muni performance. The softer‑than‑expected March CPI added modest support to equities, while the fragile U.S.–Iran cease‑fire eased concerns about further rate hikes. The upcoming new‑issue calendar shows $13.48 billion of municipal bonds slated for issuance, with $11.44 billion in negotiated deals and $2.04 billion in competitive offerings. New York City tops the negotiated list with $2.3 billion of general‑obligation bonds, and Long Beach Unified School District leads the competitive segment with $402.7 million.
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Republic of Malta at A (High), Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS confirmed Malta’s sovereign ratings at A (high) for long‑term foreign and local currency debt and R‑1 (middle) for short‑term debt, with a Stable outlook. Real GDP expanded 4.0% in 2025, while the fiscal deficit narrowed to roughly 3%...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Republic of Lithuania at A (High), Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS confirmed Lithuania's long‑term sovereign rating at A (high) and short‑term rating at R‑1, maintaining a stable outlook. The agency highlighted solid fiscal discipline, a modest public‑debt ratio of about 39.5% of GDP and 2.9% real GDP growth in...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Republic of Malta at A (High), Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS confirmed that the Republic of Malta’s long‑term foreign and local currency sovereign ratings remain at A (high), while its short‑term foreign and local currency ratings stay at R‑1 (middle). All four ratings carry a Stable trend, indicating no...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Republic of Lithuania at A (High), Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS confirmed that Lithuania’s long‑term sovereign ratings in both foreign and local currency remain at A (high), while its short‑term ratings stay at R‑1 (middle). All four ratings were reaffirmed on April 10, 2026, with a stable trend. The...
DBL: Slight Discount Opens Up For This Fixed-Income Monthly Payer
DoubleLine Opportunistic Credit Fund (DBL) is now trading at a modest discount after previously holding a premium, making it more attractive to income‑seeking investors. The fund continues to offer a 9.12% distribution yield, with net investment income coverage improving to...
New Orleans’ Credit Rating Slashed by S&P on Financial Troubles
S&P Global Ratings downgraded New Orleans’ credit rating by one notch, citing deep structural and operational imbalances and dwindling reserves. The city is leaning on short‑term fixes such as a $125 million payroll loan, employee furloughs and a hiring freeze to...
Expect a Chaotic Market: Spikes, Shortages, and Volatile Bonds
Markets are going to be funky. SoH closure into an oil price spike and physical shortage. COVID showed us anything is on the table and that governments never let a good crisis go to waste. With sovereign bond yields about...
Sallie Mae Raises $2.3 Billion in SLABS From Its Smart Option Pool
Sallie Mae Bank is issuing $2.3 billion of asset‑backed securities backed by its Smart Option student‑loan pool. The ABS will be sold in five tranches, with the A‑1B tranche floating at rates tied to the 30‑day average SOFR and repayments starting...
Fragile Ceasefire, Larger New-Issue Calendar Will Impact Muni Market
A fragile cease‑fire in the Middle East and a hefty $13.5 billion new‑issue calendar are set to pressure the municipal bond market next week. Analysts note that while the cease‑fire could provide short‑term comfort, the risk of renewed conflict remains high....
LA Metro Deal Funds Rail Transit Service Expansion
Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (LA Metro) sold approximately $900 million of senior‑lien Measure R bonds, rated AAA by S&P and Aa1 by Moody’s, to refinance older debt and fund capital projects. The bonds carry a 5% coupon and were priced...
Inspirion Wealth Boosts iShares AAA CLO ETF Stake by $3.3 Million
Inspirion Wealth Advisors increased its holding in BlackRock's iShares AAA CLO Active ETF by 63,417 shares, an estimated $3.3 million purchase. The addition lifts the fund to 3.64% of Inspirion's reportable assets, underscoring a broader shift toward high‑quality, floating‑rate structured credit.
Euro Rises as Markets Price Near‑Term ECB Hike, ING Says
The euro appreciated on Friday after ING highlighted that markets now price only a 6‑basis‑point ECB hike on 30 April, with about 55 basis points still priced by year‑end. The analyst expects the euro to hold near 1.1700 against the dollar, outpacing...
South Korea Holds Policy Rate at 2.50% as Government Bond Yields Stabilize
The Bank of Korea kept its seven‑day repurchase rate unchanged at 2.50% for the seventh consecutive meeting, matching a 93% market expectation. The decision came as inflationary pressure from oil prices and exchange‑rate volatility rose, but a surge in semiconductor...
Military Housing Bonds Dropped to Ba1 by Moody's
Moody's downgraded Southeast Housing’s military‑housing revenue bonds to Ba1, a junk‑grade rating, affecting $350 million of 2007 Series I bonds. The cut reflects weakened fiscal 2025 performance driven by costly environmental remediation at Naval Air Station‑Key West, which pushed the coverage ratio...
THE $9.6 TRILLION TREASURY MATURITY WALL: How the 2026 Debt Cliff, the $39T U.S. Debt Crisis, & the $1.2T Interest...
The U.S. federal debt now incurs over $1.2 trillion in annual interest, consuming roughly 23% of tax revenue and poised to become the largest budget line item. A "maturity wall" of $8‑9.6 trillion in Treasury securities will come due in 2026, forcing...
How Bond Issuers Will Take Advantage of Iran Ceasefire
The episode examines how the recent Iran‑US ceasefire is reshaping bond issuance in the Gulf and broader emerging markets. With public markets still volatile, sovereigns like Abu Dhabi and Qatar, as well as Egypt, have turned to private placements, accepting slightly...
How Advisors Are Rewiring Fixed Income Portfolios
Advisors are reconfiguring the fixed‑income portion of 60/40 portfolios as sticky inflation and shifting Fed expectations compress yields. A VettaFi survey shows 34% of advisors struggle most with finding yield without excess credit risk, while 31% worry about duration. Eighty‑eight...
Shuffling Risk
In late 1997 JPMorgan introduced the Bistro structure, a synthetic credit‑risk transfer that bundled $9.7 billion of corporate, bond and municipal exposures into a special‑purpose vehicle and sold Ba2 and AAA‑rated notes to investors. By requiring only $700 million of capital –...
US Minerals Deal Helps Congo Raise $1.25bn in Maiden Bond
The Democratic Republic of Congo completed its inaugural sovereign Eurobond, raising $1.25 bn. The issue comprised $600 m of 2032 notes at an 8.75% yield and $650 m of 2037 notes at 9.50%, with order books reaching $2 bn and $2.8 bn respectively, allowing tighter...
WHAT NOT TO BUY
After the Iran‑US‑Israel conflict is deemed resolved, sell‑side analysts are urging investors to buy the MAG7 mega‑cap tech group, noting that the stocks are at post‑COVID valuation lows. The author acknowledges that buying dips in these names has historically paid...
Bond P/E Triangle Signals Potential 4.5% Yield Spike
If we invert the 10-year bond yield we get a “P/E” ratio for bonds. The chart below shows that since the 2022 rate reset, the bond P/E has been stuck in a tight triangle. That triangle could be a base,...
US CPI Set to Jump as Oil Prices Surge Amid Iran Conflict
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET, with analysts warning of a sharp rise driven by a 1% jump in oil prices to $98.6 per barrel amid fragile US‑Iran ceasefire talks. Futures...
U.S. Treasury $22 Billion 30‑Year Bond Auction Draws 2.39 Bid‑to‑Cover, Yield Near 4.88%
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $22 billion of 30‑year bonds, achieving a 4.876% high yield and a 2.39 bid‑to‑cover ratio, the lowest demand since November. The result highlights a market tilt toward front‑end securities amid geopolitical uncertainty and mixed inflation data.
March Inflation Sets I Bond’s New Variable Rate at 3.34%
The Treasury announced that the March Consumer Price Index has set the new I Bond variable rate at 3.34% annualized, reflecting a modest slowdown in six‑month inflation. This rate applies to all newly issued I Bonds and will be combined with the...
San Diego Community Power Prepay First to Involve REIT
Realty Income became the first REIT to fund a prepaid‑energy municipal bond, backing San Diego Community Power's $687.2 million revenue‑bond issuance. The deal, priced on March 10 through the California Community Choice Financing Authority, was heavily oversubscribed despite market volatility from the...
Iran’s Impact on Markets: Where There Is Volatility, There Is Opportunity
François Collet, CIO of DNCA, says the Iran conflict will act as a short‑term inflationary shock, lifting European inflation expectations above 3% and keeping U.S. inflation near 3.25% over the next year. He forecasts GDP growth could be trimmed by 10‑30...
Private‑Markets Face $330 Bn Debt Wave as AI Threatens Software Firms
More than $330 bn of high‑yield, leveraged‑loan and BDC‑linked software debt tied to private‑equity portfolios will come due through 2028. At the same time, artificial‑intelligence advances threaten to devalue or replace the very products these firms rely on, intensifying refinancing pressure.
CMBS Delinquencies Spike to COVID-Era Levels, Office‑Sector Credit at Risk
The TREPP CMBS monthly report shows March delinquency rates rising to 7.55%, a 41‑basis‑point jump and the highest since COVID‑19. New delinquencies total $5.1 billion, with lodging and office sectors leading the surge, underscoring mounting credit risk for office‑building financing.
Red Spruce Capital Puts $7.4 Million Into Invesco BulletShares 2027 and 2029 Corporate Bond ETFs
Red Spruce Capital, LLC disclosed a $4.03 million purchase of the Invesco BulletShares 2027 Corporate Bond ETF and a $3.35 million purchase of the 2029 ETF, bringing its combined stake in the two funds to roughly $7.4 million. The moves raise Red Spruce’s...
India’s Currency Clampdown Triggers Sharp Sell‑off in Offshore Bond Holdings
The Reserve Bank of India’s abrupt limits on banks’ daily currency positions have forced a $30 billion unwind of arbitrage trades, sending foreign investors fleeing Indian sovereign bonds. The rupee rallied more than 2% to 92.66 per dollar, but banks face...
Circle’s USDC Revenue Model Stressed by Falling Interest Rates
Circle Internet Group’s fourth‑quarter 2025 revenue of $770 million, 95% of which came from reserve income on USDC holdings, is being squeezed by a declining reserve return rate. The macro‑sensitive model forces the firm to accelerate diversification as interest‑rate headwinds threaten...
Palomar Seeks $375m Cal-Quake & Hawaii Named Storm Cover with Torrey Pines Re 2026-1
Palomar Insurance Holdings is launching its seventh catastrophe bond, targeting $375 million to secure California earthquake and Hawaii named‑storm reinsurance through the Torrey Pines Re 2026‑1 series. The issuance comprises four tranches—three covering California quake risk and one covering Hawaii storm...
CLARIANE PRE Stabilization Notice
Clariane SE issued a pre‑stabilisation notice for a €500 million (≈$540 million) senior unsecured note offering with a five‑year maturity. The offer price is to be confirmed, and the stabilisation period is slated for 10 April 2026 through 16 May 2026. BNP Paribas, CACIB, SG, CIC, Goldman Sachs,...
Capri Global Capital Share Price Gains 2% on Announcing ₹500 Crore NCD Issue; Check Details
Capri Global Capital announced a ₹500 crore (≈$60 million) non‑convertible debenture (NCD) issue with coupons up to 9.5% and a green‑shoe option of ₹400 crore. The tranche opens on 15 April and closes on 28 April, offering tenures from 24 to 120 months and both...
Weak Chinese Economy Fuels Outward Credit Hunt
There are a lot of stories about Chinese assets acting like havens, especially China IG credit outperforming. How do you square that with a very weak economy? Well, the reason China IG credit is outperforming is because of the weak economy....
Fed Faces Record $245 Billion Cumulative Loss
⚠️The Fed's losses are MASSIVE: The Fed's cumulative losses sit at near a RECORD $245 billion. This represents the gap between what the Fed pays commercial banks in interest on their reserves and what it earns on its bond holdings. 👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-federal-reserve-s-cumulative-losses-are-massive
Russia's Central Bank Mulls Pause in Rate Cuts, Hinting at Ruble Support
Russia's central bank is weighing a pause in its series of interest‑rate cuts, a move that could shore up the ruble as inflation stays near 4‑5% and Middle‑East tensions loom. Advisor Kirill Tremasov said the April board will assess the...
Low‑rate 2020‑21 Loans Force SME Refinancing Crunch
A lot of lending to small/midsize companies is for a term of 5 to 7 years. A great deal of debt issued 3/2020 to 9/2021 is therefore coming due these days. UST interest rates were near zero in that issuance...
TLT Faces Mid‑Range Resistance, Signal to Sell
Swing chart of TLT shows resistance in middle of prior range, currently on a sell. https://t.co/mtjHPXt3sa
Ukrainian Railways Bond Restructuring Rejected by Investors
Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia) failed to reach a debt‑restructuring agreement after bondholders rejected its opening proposal. The state‑owned operator seeks to restructure roughly $1.1 billion of outstanding bonds, a debt load swollen by war‑induced revenue drops and soaring repair costs. Damage from...
Bonds Unfazed: Inflation Still Poor, Outlook Deteriorates
I think bonds are saying they don't really care that this inflation print was 'better than expectations' because 1) it's still not good and 2) the next few months are going to be even worse.
Yield Pullback Signals Chance to Trim Bonds
5/10-year yields just pulled back in uptrends... opportunity to reduce your (lagging) bond exposure into strength...
The $100 Billion Muni Sector Where Corporate Credit Risk Wears a Tax-Exempt Wrapper
The municipal bond market contains a $100 billion niche of prepaid energy bonds that appear and trade like traditional tax‑exempt munis, but their credit risk is tied to corporate guarantors rather than the issuing municipality. Increasingly, these guarantors are insurance companies...
Global Rates Climb After Latest Trump Shock
Global rate path veers higher in wake of another Trump shock https://t.co/xtMlttlWvY with @CraigStirling https://t.co/mrRZfr13lH
US Debt Costs Remain High, Slightly Less Ugly
It’s ugly, but slightly less ugly: US Government Interest Payments, Tax Receipts, Average Interest Rate on the Debt, and Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Q4 2025 https://t.co/DGqm2fqkjX https://t.co/HaOX0c5eRE
Rocky Mount, N.C., Downgraded to A1 After Takeover Threat
Moody's lowered Rocky Mount, North Carolina’s issuer and special‑tax ratings to A1, two notches below its previous Aa2 standing, citing a sharp erosion of liquidity that fell to under 11 % of revenue in FY 2025. The city carries $80.2 million in debt...
Energy Shock Drives Rapid Borrowing Cost Surge in Africa, Asia
This is how Hormuz turns into a debt crisis Borrowing costs are spiking across the developing world—fastest where resilience is weakest. Borrowing costs are up 0.64% in Africa and 0.7% in Asia Energy shock → higher yields → tighter liquidity. https://t.co/Pbx05iepX6 #DebtCrisis #OilMarkets...
Paramount‑Skydance Restructures Debt, Adding $31B to WBD
Pretty sure we need to add $31 billion or so of WBD debt to this number. Paramount Skydance Restructures Debt Financing for Warner Bros. Discovery Deal https://t.co/KdxmGFAyON via @variety
Broaden View: Compare Foreign Holdings Across All Sovereigns
If you routinely post a chart of the foreign holdings of US Treasuries but never post a chart of the foreign holdings of other global Sovereigns, you are missing the forest for the trees. https://t.co/GMjr60j0dV