Today's Bonds Pulse
WBD bondholders approve covenant changes to clear path for Paramount merger
Warner Bros. Discovery obtained bondholder and lender consent to amend its fiscal covenants, removing a key obstacle to the $110.9 billion Paramount Skydance acquisition. The vote covered $16.6 billion of debt, with approval rates ranging from 79 % to 99 % across note classes. Paramount will pay a $2.50 cash bonus per $1,000 of debt, a cost it will assume entirely.
Zambia and UK Sign Debt Restructuring Deal Under G20 Framework
Zambia and the United Kingdom have signed an amendment that reduces Zambia's outstanding debt to the UK from $291 million to about $277 million and pushes the final repayment deadline from 2032 to 2043. The deal is part of Zambia’s broader debt‑restructuring effort under the G20 Common Framework, which now covers 100% of its official external debt. The amendment, linked to UK Export Finance funding for a nationwide health‑infrastructure programme, aims to ease short‑term debt service pressures. Officials say the extended terms will free fiscal space for infrastructure, health and social projects.
PTY Has Struggled, But The Income Is Compelling And It Can Rebound
PIMCO Corporate & Income Opportunity Fund (PTY) trades at an 11.24% distribution yield, delivering $1.43 per share despite a recent price decline. The fund’s net asset value remains resilient, indicating solid portfolio quality, while the discount stems mainly from premium...
CLOZ: Price Decline Presents An Opportunity
The Eldridge BBB‑B CLO ETF (CLOZ) currently offers an attractive 8% yield, but its share price has slipped as credit spreads tighten and market volatility rises. The fund’s income stream relies heavily on elevated interest rates, so a continued decline...
Market Expectations of Inflation
Friday’s 5‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven spread sits above the Federal Reserve’s 2 % inflation target, mirroring the Federal Reserve’s Dodd‑Katz‑Wright (DKW) expected inflation series. Both metrics suggest market participants price in CPI inflation well above 2 % for the medium term. Kalshi’s latest...
Junk Bond Drop Signals Real Economic Stress
High yield credit (HYG) down 0.5% on March 6th. When junk bonds sell off alongside equities, it means credit markets are sniffing out real economic stress, not just a volatility event. Watch HYG. It leads. Always. https://t.co/HpbzOsBALw
Are EM Bonds the Most Obvious Trade in the World?
Emerging‑market (EM) bonds are delivering roughly double the yield of developed‑market debt while their volatility has fallen below that of traditional safe‑haven assets. The structural advantage stems from EM governments carrying about half the debt‑to‑GDP ratios of their developed counterparts,...
Secondary Market Signals Private Credit Defaults Over 20%
The thing is, the current secondary market prices of liquid private credit vehicles (BDCs) are implying a default rate north of 20%, far in excess of anything experienced during the GFC and greater than UBS’s draconian “worst case” scenario
Stocks Sell Off, Yields Rise, Energy Surges on War in Middle East (253)
The Feb. 28 outbreak of war in the Middle East sparked a broad equity sell‑off during the March 2‑6 week, while energy stocks were the only sector to post gains, rising about 1 %. Treasury yields climbed across the curve, except for a...
Jackson Hospital Bondholders Offered Less than 19% Recovery
Jackson Hospital & Clinic in Alabama has filed Chapter 11, offering bondholders an estimated 18.7% recovery on par, or 22.9% for the broader secured class. The $87.5 million secured claim pool will be paid via a $2.5 million cash injection, $7.5 million senior unsecured...
IDB Invest and Banco Bolivariano Launch Ecuador’s First Biodiversity Bond
IDB Invest has committed $50 million to Ecuador’s inaugural biodiversity bond, part of a $120 million issuance also backed by the International Finance Corporation and Dutch development bank FMO. The bond, issued through Banco Bolivariano, will fund projects under its Biodiversity Financing Framework,...
Aqua Finance Prepares to Sell $381.3 Million in ABS
Aqua Finance is re‑entering the securitization market with a $381.3 million asset‑backed security backed by loans for water‑treatment equipment, home‑improvement projects, marine craft and recreational vehicles. Originations through Q4 2025 jumped 30.6% year‑over‑year, fueled by new partnerships that lifted borrower quality to...
Volatile Crosscurrents Keep Mortgage Rates Relatively Flat
Mortgage rates remained relatively flat this week despite opposing forces in the bond market. A sharp surge in oil prices initially pushed rates higher by stoking inflation concerns, but a surprisingly weak jobs report later that day pulled yields down....
Priority 1 Issuer Logistics DAC – Q4 FY25 Investor Update and Management Accounts
Priority 1 Issuer Logistics DAC has published its consolidated management accounts and interim management report for the three‑month period ended 31 December 2025. The Q4 FY25 investor update is now accessible via the company’s investor portal and Oslo Børs NewsWeb. The filing...
Investors Likely to Dump Public Credit Amid Bearish CDX HY
This has to be one of the most bearish charts I’ve ever seen for CDX HY. One can argue that they won’t be as correlated as they’ve always been, but ‘this time is different’ may be wrong . I think...
Low‑volatility Tricks Fail: Loss Frequency × Severity Constant
Gundlach’s law of financial physics: The frequency of losses times the severity of losses equals a constant. Implication: do not invest in artificially “low volatility” strategies.
Brightline Florida Hit with Another S&P Downgrade
Brightline Trains Florida LLC saw S&P Global Ratings downgrade its $2.2 billion Opco debt and $1.19 billion East bonds to CCC‑minus, deepening its junk‑status. The downgrade follows a series of rating cuts by KBRA and Fitch, all warning of a possible default...
Junk Bonds Diverge, Near Support
Junk bonds diverging with stocks and working on a break of support, of a bearish descending triangle at (1) $JNK $HYG $SPY https://t.co/qGVRKZxUKf
Gateway Re 2026-2 a Testament to Transparency and Performance of SageSure’s Platform: CEO
SageSure successfully issued the $175 million Gateway Re Series 2026‑2 catastrophe bond, meeting its target size while pricing Class A notes below initial guidance and Class B notes within range. The multi‑peril bond provides reinsurance for Auros Reciprocal and Interboro across storm, earthquake, wildfire, severe...
2s5s Rebounds Sharply After Weak NFP Data
2s5s had been under relentless pressure in the past month (AI disruption and all) but finally a surge steeper after that weak a&& NFP print https://t.co/fYJGpdBc5q
SEC Reaches Partial Settlement with Consultant of Failed Bond-Financed Arizona Sports Park
The SEC reached a partial settlement with Jeffrey Puzzullo, the construction consultant who helped fabricate financial projections for the $284 million Legacy Cares municipal bond offering in Arizona. Puzzullo pleaded guilty to conspiracy, securities fraud, wire fraud and aggravated identity theft,...
All Assets Falling Signals Liquidity Crunch, Not Rotation
The 10-year yield has risen four consecutive sessions to 4.14%. Stocks down. Bonds down. Oil up. Gold down. When everything sells off together, it's not a rotation. It's a liquidity event. https://t.co/6whtUyh3CH
Long-Term Inflation Expectations Hit April Low, Treasury Yields Diverge
Long-term inflation expectations have fallen to the lowest since April, based on 5-year 5-year forward breakeven rates. Yields on 10-year Treasuries seem to be trading on a different dynamic. https://t.co/hStpU22gbY
California School Bonds Retain Resilience Despite Headwinds
California school‑district municipal bonds remain a solid risk‑adjusted investment despite mounting headwinds such as declining enrollment and exposure to child‑sex‑abuse lawsuits. Strong state backing via Proposition 98 and first‑lien tax claims underpin the sector’s credit quality, with most districts holding A‑rating...
Current Curve Rerating Signals Faster Resolution Than 2022
This is all I was trying to say. The relative rerating of the curve this time vs 2022 is very different and implies a quicker resolution vs 2022 when the whole curve rerated. Thanks Warren
EU Bond Yields Converge; Ideal Moment for Euro Debt
The yields on bonds of pretty much all EU member states are moving closer to Germany’s. This is the right time for common euro debt, writes @marcusashworth https://t.co/ZN3JVBYKDo via @opinion https://t.co/fSn1i0CbMd
Masters of the Muniverse: MMA Founder Doe on Prediction Markets
In this inaugural Bloomberg Intelligence FIC podcast, municipal market veteran Tom Doe discusses the emerging role of prediction markets—platforms like Polymarket and CalSHE—in providing real‑time sentiment and risk data for municipal bonds. He explains how these markets could address shortcomings...
Markets Price Rate Hikes as Cutting Cycle Ends
Cutting cycle is over, apparently - and markets starting to price hikes. Except for the Fed because, you know, he did *promise*...... https://t.co/rJQHqLdaJj
Waller Warns Hot PCE Inflation, Energy Shock Risk
Fed governor Chris Waller on Bloomberg TV: January PCE inflation is going to be hot. The energy shock is a new risk. If the labor market is solid, "It does say you can sit there and wait."
BlackRock Launches Flexible Income Bond iShares ETF on London Stock Exchange
BlackRock introduced the iShares € Flexible Income Bond Active UCITS ETF on the London Stock Exchange on 6 March 2026. The GBP‑hedged, accumulating share class carries a 0.42% expense ratio and gives investors exposure to a globally diversified bond portfolio. The fund can allocate...
10
4.17% on the 10yr... highest since Feb 12... remember it gapped down to 3.93% to start the week (Sunday night) https://t.co/fDNCy0A6lE
Eclipse Re Issues Its First Private Cat Bond of the Year, $100m Series 2026-1A
Eclipse Re Ltd., a Bermuda‑based special purpose insurer, issued its first private catastrophe bond of 2026 – a $100 million Series 2026‑1A note listed on the Bermuda Stock Exchange. The bond, likely covering property catastrophe reinsurance or retrocession, matures on December 31 2027, making...
Fed
Update on the Fed’s Balance Sheet and its Reserve Management Purchases. Adding T-bills, shedding MBS, Treasury note & bond balances on ice, SRF unused https://t.co/M947SfSoUP https://t.co/c3uHc5VmGA
Agency Market Phones It In, Rate Refis Slow in February
Agency mortgage market showed tepid activity in February, with rate‑refinance volumes remaining sluggish. GSE credit‑risk‑transfer (CRT) issuance fell to its lowest level since 2013, while overall loan originations modestly increased across most product lines. Delinquency rates at large servicers rose...
Three Kinds of Fed-Treasury Accords
Peter Conti‑Brown outlines three separate Fed‑Treasury accords: one freeing the Treasury from setting monetary policy, a second keeping the Fed out of partisan politics, and a third enhancing collaboration on public‑debt management. He traces the historic 1951 Accord that granted...
Nexstar Moves Forward With TEGNA Tender Offer Following FCC Visit
Nexstar Media Group announced a cash tender offer to repurchase its 5% senior notes due 2029, a move directly tied to the pending acquisition of TEGNA. The offer, managed by BofA Securities, J.P. Morgan, and Goldman Sachs, will remain open...
Loomis Sayles Core Plus Full Discretion: A Differentiated Approach
Loomis Sayles introduced its Core Plus Full Discretion strategy as a response to the 2022 yield reset that ended a long low‑rate era. The approach diverges from traditional domestic core fixed‑income by employing active, discretionary management to capture income and total‑return opportunities....
States Struggle to Get a Grip on Growth of Prediction Markets
Prediction‑market trading is booming, with 2025 activity surpassing $44 billion and state officials racing to regulate the sector. The CFTC, under Michael Selig, argues federal jurisdiction, while dozens of states file lawsuits claiming gambling violations. Florida’s bond finance chief Ben Watkins...
Record Hedge Activity Signals Unprecedented Investor Fear
🚨Investors are hedging against a market crash at a record pace: Combined put open interest in credit ETFs, $HYG, $LQD, $JNK, and $BKLN, plus call open interest in the Treasury ETF, $TLT, is up to a record 15.9 million contracts. This has...
Avoid Annington Bonds Amid Repayment Shock Risk
Macro: credit litigation; GLAS sues Annington for £1.56bn over 2032–2051 bonds. Key: issuer rejects acceleration. Risk: repayment shock, guarantor strain. Trading insight: avoid Annington bonds. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Navigating Euro Credit: Fundamentals, Valuations & Technicals
Pim van Mourik Broekman outlines the Euro credit market’s current landscape, highlighting overweight financials and utilities versus underweight industrials. He warns that geopolitical tensions and divergent central‑bank policies—particularly the ECB’s dovish stance against the Fed’s tightening—could steepen the yield curve. Valuations...
US Debt Surge Meets Historic Oil Shock, Spiraling Risks
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 32%, deficit/GDP was 1%, & NIIP/GDP was +10%. There was no level of inflation & rates that could push the US into a debt spiral. Today those #’s are 122%, 6%, & -90%, & 4.8% 10y...
Aptiv Subsidiaries Begin $1.5bn Notes Offering for EDS Spin-Off
Aptiv’s subsidiaries have launched a $1.5 bn private senior notes offering tied to the planned spin‑off of its Electrical Distribution Systems (EDS) unit. The notes, due in 2031 and 2034, will be held in escrow until the separation is finalized. In...
Nordic CTAs Thrive in February’s Volatile Macro Landscape
February was a strong month for Nordic CTA managers, making CTAs the top‑performing sub‑strategy in the Nordic Hedge Index. Gains were anchored by fixed‑income and soft‑commodity profits, with all trend‑following managers posting positive returns. Several non‑trend managers also delivered gains,...
BlackRock Wipes Private Credit Loans to Zero in Three Months
Well well well... BlackRock marked a private credit loan at 100 cents on the dollar in Q3. By Q4, it was a big fat ZERO. Not 80. Not 50. ZERO. In 3 months. This is the second time $TCPC has done this recently....
Dollar Rises, Treasuries Fall: Safety Flight Redefined
"The US Dollar may still have moved up after the war started, but the price of US Treasuries went down. Flight-to-safety and flight-to-quality aren’t what they used to be."
UST Funding Strain Grows as 30‑Year Swap Spread Hits
UST funding pressure starting to ramp up as swap spreads narrow 3-4 bps across the curve. 30y tenor now less than -78 bps https://t.co/yWt8DEzUEr
Oil Spikes, yet Inflation Expectations Stay Flat.
Oil prices are surging, but inflation expectations aren't moving. Bond markets still pricing in a world that may no longer exist. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/6C4VK744Ql
Fed Cuts Rates, yet 10-Year Yields Climb
since @federalreserve starting cutting rates this cycle (Sep '24), U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have risen... the green circles show the rate cuts since... https://t.co/g34w7tO0BZ
Iran Tensions Fail to Boost Bonds, Rates Keep Climbing
Bonds have not gotten the safe haven bid since Iran action commenced last Friday evening. $TLT - Rates still moving higher.
Bond Volatility Bet Hurts Markets, Boosts TW MK
Treasury (TLT) buyer 5000 December $89 straddles expecting bond volatility, tends to be bad for markets, good for TW MKTX