Today's Bonds Pulse
Bond Yields Surge to 19-Year High, Sparking Stock Market Concerns
The 30‑year Treasury yield climbed to a 19‑year peak while the 10‑year rose from 4.03% to 4.69% before easing to about 4.5%. Goldman Sachs research notes that half‑percentage‑point spikes in yields typically turn short‑term S&P 500 returns negative, heightening correction risk. Inflation is running at 3.8% year‑over‑year, fueling the sell‑off.
Global Warming Expected to Drive Structural Growth in ILS Spreads: Solidum Partners
Solidum Partners says global warming will structurally expand ILS spreads. As natural disaster frequency and severity increase, traditional reinsurers face capital constraints under Solvency II, limiting their capacity. ILS instruments, being event‑specific and fully collateralized, can absorb tail risk, leading investors to demand higher spreads. However, rising modeling uncertainty and the need for climate‑linked products present challenges for ILS managers.
Earn 12‑18% Risk‑Free with Nigerian Treasury Bonds
TREASURY BILLS & GOVERNMENT BONDS Low-risk, government-backed securities. In Nigeria, buy FGN Savings Bonds or Treasury Bills through the CBN portal or apps like Chaka, Bamboo, or Cowrywise (minimum ₦10,000). Returns typically 12-18% annually. Other African countries offer similar products through their...
Dollar Steadies, Yen Rebounds; US 10‑yr Dips Below
The greenback is a little firmer against the G10 currencies but the yen as it consolidates yesterday's sharp losses. JGB yields are softer. Meanwhile this could be only the 2nd session since mid-Jan that the US 10-year yield...
EM Debt Strength Holds as DM Policy Noise Grows>
VanEck’s Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMBX) posted a 5.56% 30‑day yield and outperformed both its benchmark and U.S. Treasuries in January 2026, driven by strong local‑currency exposure and carry. The fund’s portfolio now holds 48% hard‑currency sovereigns, with notable additions...
Equities Edge up as Dollar Slips, Data Awaits
Tuesday: Equity futures slightly higher, dollar weaker and treasury yields nearly unchanged. Retail sales, Employment Cost Index and Import prices out today.
Tether Would Rank 17th in US Treasury Holdings
Who is the world's largest holder of US Treasuries? 🥇 Japan 🥈 United Kingdom 🥉 China But here's the wildest part - if Tether were a country, it would be the 17th largest holder of US Treasuries https://t.co/JoaE6JzFI9
FA at 30: How Dim Sum Bonds Unlocked Liquidity without Opening China’s Capital Account
Nearly two decades after China Development Bank issued its first RMB‑denominated bond in Hong Kong, dim sum bonds have become a cornerstone of offshore liquidity. The initial issuance was modest, but it demonstrated that Chinese sovereign and policy banks could...
Macron Urges EU to Adopt Eurobonds Now
Emmanuel Macron: « Now is the time for the EU to launch a joint borrowing capacity, through eurobonds. » https://t.co/NqqbjjecXk
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for February 6, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields slipped across the board for the week ending February 6, 2026. The benchmark 30‑year rate fell 0.02 percentage points, while the 10‑year yield dropped 0.04 points to 4.22 %. The 3‑year Treasury rate settled at 3.57 %, reflecting a modest broad‑based decline. These...
Volatility Laundering in Private Credit
Private credit has trailed public credit since 2022, offering lower liquidity, weaker credit quality, higher industry concentration and higher borrower costs. By avoiding daily mark‑to‑market, private credit managers can "volatility launder" returns, presenting artificially low volatility and inflated Sharpe ratios....
Alphabet Launches 100‑year GBP Bond, Eyes Currency Debasement
#Alphabet to issue 100-year GBPSterling bond after having issued 50-year $17.5 bn USD bond in November. Also plns to issue CHF bond. They're betting further currency debasement #forex
AM Resilience After Overnight Weakness
Overnight Treasury markets experienced a sharp, high‑volume move despite a relatively narrow price range. The volatility was triggered by news that Chinese regulators asked banks to limit their exposure to U.S. Treasuries. Domestic traders quickly digested the information, and by...
Private Credit Defaults
The episode dissects private‑credit defaults, arguing that most defaults are driven by borrower‑specific (idiosyncratic) factors rather than systemic risk, which the media often exaggerates for clicks. Data from the Cliffwater Direct Lending Index shows realized losses remain well below historic...
IRRBB Management in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of Derivatives in Supporting Financial Stability and Economic Development
Interest rate risk in the banking book (IRRBB) is emerging as a top priority for banks and regulators across emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). Monetary tightening and persistent macro‑volatility are making balance‑sheet exposures more fragile, exposing the limits of...
DClimate Launches Tyche to Bring On-Chain Transparency to Catastrophe Reinsurance
Decentralised climate platform dClimate has launched Tyche, a blockchain‑based marketplace that tokenises catastrophe reinsurance using ERC‑20 assets. The platform recorded $20 million of notional risk during last year’s hurricane season and relies on dClimate’s AI‑driven Aegis engine for real‑time pricing and...
Downing Street Resignations Trigger Bond Market Jitters
UK bond markets reacted sharply on Monday after a series of high‑profile Downing Street resignations, with the 10‑year gilt yield climbing to 4.62% – a ten‑basis‑point surge that set a three‑month high. The departures, including communications chief Tim Allan and...
Repriced Risk in a Rebuilt Regional Bank Subordinated Floater
The episode examines a regional bank that has rebuilt its balance sheet, achieving profitability, capital ratios above 12%, and improved liquidity after addressing over $12 billion of higher‑risk loans. It highlights that despite these fundamentals, the bank’s subordinated floating‑rate notes are...
Gradual End of Bank Dominance in India
India’s household financial portfolio is shifting away from traditional safe assets toward equities and managed funds. Between March 2021 and March 2025, bank deposits fell from roughly 47.5% to 43.5% of total financial assets, while mutual‑fund and pension holdings rose...
Weekly Market Update: February 2026 - Week 1
The DoubleLine Weekly Market Update for the first week of February 2026 highlights a mixed equity landscape, with technology stocks delivering the strongest upside while other sectors lagged. Bond markets saw yields climb as inflation expectations solidified, prompting a modest...
Potential Signs of GSE Buying as MBS Outperform
MBS outperformed Treasuries on Feb 6, rising two ticks while 5‑ and 10‑year yields fell about six ticks. The move suggests possible GSE buying despite no official data. Consumer sentiment posted 57.3, beating forecasts, and inflation expectations eased to 3.5% for...
European Rates: ECB and BoE February Meetings, Skinny Carry in Euro Area, Increased UK Political Noise
In this brief episode, J.P. Morgan analysts Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia, and Khagendra Gupta dissect the February policy meetings of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, highlighting the limited rate‑differential (or "skinny carry") in the Eurozone and...
Waiting on Next Week's Data
Friday's economic calendar was thin, with only the Consumer Sentiment report standing out. Treasury yields edged slightly higher but stayed near the 4.20% threshold, keeping bond markets largely unchanged. The previous day's disappointing labor figures have heightened market attention on...
Stockholm’s Capital Markets Success: More Than Meatballs
In this episode Barbara Stewart, CFA, explores why Stockholm has become Europe’s leading capital‑raising hub, highlighting a surge in IPOs, private‑equity activity, and corporate‑bond issuance. She attributes the durability of this flow to a deep investment culture fostered by the...
The Liquidity Tide Is Turning: Warning for Risk Assets
The episode explains how a shift in global liquidity, driven by the Federal Reserve’s move toward quantitative tightening, is ending the era of easy money and causing risk assets like Bitcoin and high‑growth tech stocks to falter. It highlights the...
Bonds as Bargaining Chips: The $8 Trillion Selloff that Could Shake U.S. Markets
European investors hold roughly $8 trillion of U.S. Treasury debt, a quarter of the Treasury market, and recent geopolitical friction with the Trump administration has sparked talk of using those holdings as leverage. A Danish pension fund’s $100 million Treasury sell‑off highlighted...
Stronger Start Thanks to Employment Data
U.S. Treasury bonds edged higher in early trading on Thursday, with gains accelerating after 7 a.m. ET. The market reacted to two labor‑market releases: the Challenger job‑cut data at 7:30 a.m. and the more impactful weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., the latter...
Watchdog Warns on ‘Fire Sale Dynamics’ Risk in Repo Market
The Financial Stability Board warned that leveraged trades in the short‑term repo market could spark fire‑sale dynamics, pressuring sovereign bond prices. It highlighted a $16 trillion global repo market, with hedge‑fund borrowing near $3 trillion—about 25% of their assets—often conducted with zero...
The BlackRock TCPC Story
The episode dissects BlackRock TCPC’s recent 19% NAV drop, revealing that the loss was driven by six concentrated positions heavily weighted in second‑lien loans and equity rather than first‑lien senior debt. The host contrasts this risky capital‑structure positioning and volatile...
Waiting on ISM Services as Early Data Fails to Inspire
ADP's employment numbers released at 8:15 a.m. ET came in softer than analysts expected, yet Treasury yields barely moved. Fifteen minutes later, the Treasury Department posted its quarterly financing estimates, which were in line with prior forecasts but warned that borrowing...
The Hidden Cost Of Investment Income
The episode explores a new Longview Research Partners analysis that challenges the traditional view of bond interest and REIT dividends as portfolio positives, showing that forced investment income can erode over 1% of after‑tax wealth for high‑net‑worth investors. The hosts...
Bank of England Should Hold Interest Rates, City AM Shadow MPC Says
City AM’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee, comprising nine independent economists, voted 7‑2 to keep the Bank of England’s base rate at 3.75%, citing persistent inflation and mixed business‑survey signals. Inflation for the year to December remains at 3.4%, above the...
Scarce Reserves
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Warsh is pushing to restart quantitative tightening, signaling a shift toward shrinking the central bank’s balance sheet. This move comes even as the Fed recently expanded its holdings to ease strains in the funding market. Warsh’s...
Money and Me: When Gold Breaks, AI Bites Back, and Japan Shakes the World
In this episode, host Michelle Martin and guest Simon Ree, founder of Tao of Trading, dissect a volatile market landscape where gold and silver have sharply retreated after a steep rally, and Microsoft’s stock fell despite strong earnings, raising concerns...
Understanding Peer Momentum
The episode explores "peer momentum," the idea that a stock’s future returns can be better predicted by the recent performance of its connected firms—not just its own past returns. Research shows that using industry‑level peer momentum yields annualized return spreads...
The Changing Shape of Variation Margin Collateral
Variation margin (VM) collateral, long dominated by cash, is facing pressure from higher funding costs, stricter regulations, and market stress, prompting firms to explore non‑cash alternatives. A Risk.net survey of 114 collateral specialists shows 57% of sell‑side and 33% of...
Profit Warnings Citing Global Upheaval Hit ‘Record High’
EY’s latest analysis shows 240 UK‑listed firms issued profit warnings last year, the lowest total since 2021 but the highest proportion citing policy and geopolitical uncertainty. About 42 percent of those warnings named regulatory flip‑flops, tariffs and wage hikes as profit‑dragging...
Modern Fed Chair
Asset‑management veteran Christopher Reider has surged to the front of the Federal Reserve chair race, positioning himself as the most suitable candidate for a fiscal‑dominant environment. Reider, a political outsider with no evident Trump connections, argues for lowering the policy...
Deleveraging Operator Offers Compelling Yield
The episode examines a high‑yield note offering over 8.5% that is backed by a company aggressively reducing its debt, positioning it for a potential rating upgrade within the next two years. It highlights how the current spread reflects genuine compensation...
Repo Clearing: Expanding Access, Boosting Resilience
Repo clearing is gaining traction as market liquidity tightens and regulators push for more transparency. LSEG’s RepoClear head Michel Semaan discussed how mandatory clearing and new haircut rules could enhance resilience while potentially shifting liquidity. Buy‑side firms, including hedge funds...
How Much Money Does the UK Government Borrow, and Does It Matter?
The UK’s public sector net borrowing fell 38% in December 2025, a £7.1 billion reduction from the previous month. Over the full financial year to March 2025 the government borrowed £152.6 billion, with an additional £140.4 billion borrowed between April and November 2025....
High-Quality Real Estate Credit with More than Investment-Grade Spread
The episode examines a senior housing REIT whose current spread over the BBB index undervalues its credit quality, citing a strong net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio, ample liquidity, and improving rent coverage. It argues that the market misreads the issuer as...
Stale Data Watch: Construction Spending for October — More “Green Shoots”?
Construction spending for October rose modestly, with total nominal spending up 0.5% and residential construction up 1.3%. After adjusting for a 0.2% decline in material prices, real overall spending increased 0.7% and residential spending 1.5%, pushing both series close to...
How Your Brain’s “Break-Even” Bias Creates Mispricings
In this episode, Larry Swedroe discusses a new study by Jihoon Goh, Suk‑Joon Byun, and Donghoon Kim that uncovers how the “salience effect”—investors’ attraction to stocks with dramatic past moves—interacts with the “break‑even bias,” a tendency to take riskier bets...
American Friction
The episode examines the fallout from escalating tariff disputes between the United States and Europe, which have prompted investors to sell U.S. assets and trigger a sell‑off in global markets. It highlights Japan’s bond market stress as yields climb to...
Practical Monetarism
The President is expected to announce his Fed Chairman pick this week, with former governor Kevin Warsh emerging as the leading contender. Warsh, a noted hawk, aligns his policy outlook with Treasury Secretary Bessent. He is best known for a...
Weekly Indicators for January 12 - 16 at Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha’s weekly indicators for Jan 12‑16 highlight a normalizing yield curve and mortgage rates at three‑year lows, which are reviving the housing market. At the same time, gasoline prices have slipped to their lowest level in almost five years, creating...
Industrial Production Sets New Post-Pandemic High in December - but Mainly Due to Utilities
Industrial production reached a new post‑pandemic high in December, climbing 0.4% after revisions added another 0.2% to prior months. The modest 0.2% rise in manufacturing was dwarfed by a 2.6% jump in utility output, which also posted a 2.3% year‑over‑year...
Subscriber Update on Block Inc. 2032s
The episode breaks down Block, Inc.'s latest credit outlook, highlighting a dramatic shift from a shaky to a durable balance sheet and a clear path to achieving the Rule of 40 by 2026. Q3 2025 results show 18% YoY gross...
Thursday: Intervention Talk Props up Yen
In this brief episode of "5 in 5 with ANZ," host Bernard Hickey highlights how recent central bank interventions have bolstered the Japanese yen amid broader market volatility. He notes that while banking stress persists in the US and Europe,...
The Dollar Consolidates While Japan Steps Up Its Intervention Threats and Decision Day for the SCOTUS
The U.S. dollar is in a consolidating phase, hovering around JPY158.6 after a brief push toward JPY159.5, as Japanese authorities intensify verbal warnings of possible market intervention. In North America, traders await U.S. PPI, retail sales data and comments from...