Today's Bonds Pulse
US Treasury market steadies after Iran conflict sparks volatility
The US Treasury market has settled back to pre‑war calm following turbulence triggered by the Iran conflict, and expectations for bond‑market swings have fallen to near their lowest level of the year. Meanwhile, 30‑year Treasury yields slipped from a 19‑year high as optimism builds.
For the Right Investor, This Week’s 30-Year TIPS Auction Will Have Appeal
The Treasury will auction a 30‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Security (TIPS) this week, offering a real‑yield that could attract investors seeking long‑term inflation hedges. Analysts note that redeeming early‑year I Bonds can generate an unexpected tax liability, complicating cash‑flow planning. Recent CPI data showed a 0.37% month‑over‑month increase, underscoring persistent price pressures. Some investors are exploring charitable remainder trusts to manage the tax impact of bond proceeds.
SPTS: January Job Cuts, Limited CPI Gives Space For Growth Mandate Focus And Cuts
State Street’s SPDR Portfolio Short Term Treasury ETF (SPTS) is gaining attention as its 1.85‑year duration aligns with a lower‑inflation environment, allowing a growth‑focused mandate. The ETF’s exposure to short‑term rate moves helps it sidestep risks tied to long‑term USD...
Tract’s Fleet Data Centers Seeks $3.8bn to Fuel Nevada Build-Out
Fleet Data Centers, the development arm of Tract, announced a $3.8 billion senior secured note issuance to fund a 230 MW data center campus in Reno, Nevada. The facility, built on a 252‑acre site, is 100 percent leased to an unnamed investment‑grade tenant...
TSI: Massive 30% Dividend Raise For This Monthly Income Fund
TCW Strategic Income Fund (TSI) announced a roughly 30% increase in its monthly dividend, pushing its distribution yield to about 6.9%. The closed‑end fund trades at a 7.62% discount to net asset value and carries a Buy rating. TSI’s portfolio...
The Fed's New Target: Part II
In Part II, the podcast examines how the ongoing "Great Compression" of money‑market rates is pushing the Federal Reserve to replace its traditional overnight Fed Funds target with a new benchmark. It explains that overnight Fed Funds volume has collapsed...
TIC Data Misses China’s Treasury Holdings Abroad
My periodic reminder that the US TIC data doesn't measure China's holdings of US Treasuries. It only measures China's holdings of Treasuries in US custodians. The real question is how many Treasuries Chinese entities hold in non US...
Zambia Comprehensive Comeback Belatedly Blesses Debt Framework
The episode reviews Zambia's overdue debt restructuring progress, highlighting a post‑default €3 billion Eurobond swap that now accounts for about a quarter of its external debt and a 95% debt‑to‑GDP ratio. It notes strong market rebounds with the kwacha up 15%...
U.S. Economy Near Soft Landing Amid Multiple Risks
This isn’t a victory lap, and it isn’t a doom story. The U.S. economy is closer to a soft landing than it’s been in some time, and there are real risks that could undo it from multiple directions. I try...
A Short Duration Income Trade with a Built-In Exit
The episode examines a ten‑year preferred security that now trades just above par, offering a high current yield and a short time to a likely call. The host highlights the bond’s attractive spread over Treasuries, its qualified‑dividend tax treatment, and...
Buffett’s Japanese Bond Move: Short Yen, Long Equities
The best macro trade of the past 5 years was Warren buffet’s Japanese bond issuance imo. Got him short the currency, short rates all while he was long the equities (trading houses).
A U.S. ‘Debt Spiral’ Could Start Soon as the Interest Rate on Government Borrowing Is Poised to Exceed Economic Growth,...
The CBO projects publicly held U.S. debt will surpass 106% of GDP by 2030 and reach 120% by 2036. Average Treasury interest rates are expected to climb to 3.9% by the end of the forecast, outpacing nominal GDP growth that...
VGMS: This New Low-Cost Active Bond ETF Is Growing
Vanguard launched the Multi‑Sector Income Bond ETF (VGMS) in June 2025, offering a 5.19% SEC yield and a low 0.30% expense ratio. Over the past eight months the actively managed fund outperformed the benchmark AGG by 93 basis points, delivering...
Markets Price 2.5 Fed Cuts as Curve Flattens
After jobs and CPI, mkt has ~2.5 Fed rate cuts discounted this year. 2-10 yr curve flattened back-to-back weeks for first time since Oct. 10 yr yield 3-month low. Be prepared for next week. See...
January’s Mild Inflation Report Comes with ‘Qualifications’
January’s consumer‑price index showed modest headline inflation, rising 0.3% month‑over‑month and 3.2% year‑over‑year, but the report included several qualifiers. Core CPI eased to 4.8% annual, driven by lower energy costs, while shelter and services remained sticky. Analysts highlighted the mixed...
Pemex's Bond Return Shows State Risk, Not Confidence
Pemex is back in the bond market after six years — and demand was strong. This doesn't signal confidence in Pemex. Buyers are really underwriting the Mexican state. https://t.co/YRGXmzi4aW #Pemex #Mexico #OilMarkets #EnergySecurity #SovereignRisk #DebtMarkets #EmergingMarkets
FCT: No Near-Term Growth Catalyst
First Trust Senior Floating Rate Income Fund II (FCT) remains a hold as its earnings growth stalls and its 11.7% yield faces pressure. Net investment income is insufficient to fully fund distributions, forcing the fund to rely on realized gains,...
Yield Drop Signals Benign CPI, Boosts Gold Prices
The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) fell sharply at 8:30 am today, a sign markets think today's CPI was benign and so the Fed cuts more. Bloomberg's XAU/$ gold price (white) rose around the same time, which is consistent with that...
Services Inflation Sticks While Housing Disinflation Persists
Closing out the week with @GregDaco and @ElizRosner talking about inflation: "On the latest episode of The Inflation Brief from ECON-versations with NABE, hosts Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton are joined by special guest Claudia Sahm to break down the...
Central Alabama Water Downgraded by S&P
S&P Global Ratings lowered Central Alabama Water’s revenue‑bond rating to AA‑minus from AA and placed the issue on CreditWatch Negative. The downgrade reflects weakening liquidity, high debt levels and aging infrastructure, compounded by delayed budget adoption after a state‑mandated governance...
Figures on Automotive Securitization Tapes: Definitions Report - February 2026
The Fixed‑Asset Securitization Tracker (FAST) released its February 2026 Definitions report, detailing the data fields used in automotive securitization tapes. The document supplies precise definitions, code tables, and cross‑references to related transaction disclosures. By standardizing terminology, the report aims to simplify...
Bond Yields Fall After CPI Report Shows Tamer Inflation
U.S. Treasury yields fell after the January CPI came in cooler than expected, pulling municipal bond yields lower as well. Despite the softer inflation print, analysts say the Federal Reserve will likely keep rates on hold and consider only a...
Investors Choose Safe Bonds, Accepting Low Real Returns
One way to interpret recent price action in the bond market is that large pools of investment capital have made the determination that a 3.6%-4.1% guaranteed nominal return over the next 5-10 years is preferable to taking on the risk/reward...
Fed's Goolsbee Sees Encouraging and Concerning Parts of the CPI Report
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted a mixed CPI report, noting a modest 0.2% month‑over‑month rise in headline inflation and a steady 2.5% year‑over‑year rate. While core inflation matched expectations, services inflation remains elevated, keeping overall inflation around 3% and...
BDC Quarterly Letters: Refusing Write‑Downs, Defying Pressure
Every BDC quarterly letter should just say “we are choosing not to mark this down and you can’t make us.”
California Sees Healthy Demand for Water System Revenue Bonds
California’s Department of Water Resources issued a $546 million Central Valley Project water‑revenue bond under a new 2026 resolution, reporting a 4.14 % all‑in true interest cost. The 5 % coupon bonds carry yields from 1.70 % to 4.27 % and mature between 2027 and...
Austin Bond-Related Cases Seek Texas High Court Rulings
Austin’s $1.6 billion convention‑center replacement, financed mainly through revenue bonds, has entered a legal showdown at the Texas Supreme Court. Petitioners seeking to halt demolition argue the city clerk’s signature count fell short, while the city maintains the count was accurate....
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Add New Rate Buydown Disclosures
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will begin reporting loan‑level interest‑rate buydown information as a new attribute, L‑117, starting April 20 for MBS issued on or after May 1. The disclosures classify loans into five categories—moderate, significant, other, not applicable, and not available—using...
Floaters May Be Fantastic Alternative to T-Bills
Floating‑rate notes are gaining traction as a higher‑yielding alternative to Treasury bills, especially as short‑term rates rise. VanEck's IG Floating Rate ETF (FLTR) offers a 4.28% yield, low duration, and strong credit quality, making it attractive for income‑focused investors. The...
European Rates: Scandinavian Rate Outlook – a Long Winter Hibernation
In this brief episode, J.P. Morgan analysts Francis Diamond and Frida Infante examine the current state and near‑term outlook for Swedish and Norwegian sovereign and corporate rate markets. They highlight that both countries are entering a prolonged period of low‑rate...
Bonds Rally, Ignoring Surge in SuperCore CPI
Bonds rallied as the latest CPI data showed headline inflation just below forecasts and core inflation on target, pushing 10‑year Treasury yields down to 4.07%. Shelter costs continued to ease, with owners' equivalent rent hitting a cycle low. Meanwhile, the...
Central Bank Rate Cuts of 100 Basis Points in Egypt and 50 BPS in Russia
The Central Bank of Egypt cut its policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it down to 19.0% as inflation eases to 11.9% after a peak of 38% in 2023. The Bank of Russia trimmed its key rate by another...
Most Private Credit PIK Is Bad Yet Labeled Performing
58% of PIK in private credit is "bad PIK" per Lincoln. Borrower stops paying cash. Lender accepts more debt instead. Everyone marks it at par. This is called "performing."
Market Rally Likely False Amid Risk‑off Sentiment
I believe this is a false rally. Look at Utilities. That's defensive positioning. Same with long duration Treasuries. We remain in a risk-off condition for now.
India Bond Traders Seek Buybacks as Yields Climb Despite Switch
Indian bond traders are pressing the government for buybacks as 10‑year yields climb despite a recent debt‑switch operation. The benchmark 10‑year yield rose to 6.6878%, up about five basis points after the Treasury swapped ₹755 billion of FY27 bonds for longer‑term...
CPI Slowdown Fuels Falling Yields, Bullish Duration, Utilities, Gold
Post Hedgeye's Nowcast nailing another decel in CPI Growth decelerates → yields fall → correlations re-assert That’s the whole #Quad3 playbook ✔️ Duration bullish ✔️ Utilities work ✔️ Gold works ❌ Financials don’t
Labor Holds, Inflation Cools, Yen Soars Amid Crosscurrents
Resilient labor. Cooling inflation. Duration rallying. Yen surging. 130K jobs. CPI at 2.4%. 10Y yields sliding. Dollar down on the week. This isn’t a clean cycle — it’s macro crosscurrents. Full breakdown: https://t.co/vNAZw80IbE
RenRe’s New Stratos Fund Is a Managed Cat Bond Account for a Single Institutional Investor
RenaissanceRe launched the Stratos Fund, a $260.4 million catastrophe‑bond segregated account managed exclusively for a single institutional investor. The capital was transferred from the co‑mingled Medici cat‑bond strategy, making Stratos a fund‑of‑one rather than a multi‑investor vehicle. It is the second...
AI-Driven Low Rates Boost Term Premium Compression, Hedge Long Bonds
A very positive setup for duration and UST term premium compression if rates are to stay low for a longer timeframe because of AI disruption. It will take time to play out but long end is well priced and...
Short‑term Bond Shorts Suffer as 5‑Year Yields Surge
It has been a painful few weeks for the short belly crowd (moi included) as 5s has been kinging up on the curve. Warsh nomination and slow AI disruption have been the main culprits https://t.co/3pqYjTV3QZ
US Dollar Credit Supply: Primary Market Shows Strong Start to 2026
US dollar primary market began 2026 with robust corporate issuance, totaling $56 bn in January, driven largely by technology, media and telecom (TMT) firms contributing $24 bn. Banks led the financial sector, printing $134 bn of senior non‑preferred bonds, a $20 bn year‑to‑date increase...
Inflation Still Stubborn: CPI 2.8%, Core 3.2%
FWIW, since the first "clean" CPI in November (post shutdown), headline CPI inflation is 2.8% annualized and core is 3.2% annualized. Neither suggests much stepdown yet in underlying inflation.
Soft US Inflation Sparks Dollar Slide, Yield Drop, Gold Rise
📉 Softer US Inflation - Markets React 🔻 Softer US inflation numbers 🔻 USD tumbling 🔻 10-year yield falling ⬆️ Gold rising ⬆️ Stocks rallying 📊 CPI Breakdown: • MoM: 0.2% actual vs 0.3% forecast • YoY: 2.5% actual vs 2.5% forecast (2.7% previous)
Rates Spark: Dutch Pension Funds May Prepare Early for 2027 Transitions
Almost €1 trillion of Dutch pension assets are slated to transition by 2027, but early hedge rebalancing has already begun. Smaller funds moved interest‑rate hedges in December 2025, while larger players like PMT and PFZW are timing their flows for the first...
January Spike: Core CPI Gains Outpace Typical Inflation
JANUARY EFFECT, or “Why this inflation report matters more than others” Since the start of 2022, core CPI has risen 0.45% month-on-month in January, versus an average of 0.33% for all months.
Trump Backs Off as Treasury Market Wobbles, Risk Premium Spikes
One constant in the Trump administration is that - when the Treasury market wobbles - it backs down. That happened on China in Apr. '25 and again on Greenland recently. 10y10y forward yield remains near its highs, even as 10y...
“Liberation Day” Interpreted Through the Lens of the Benchmark Revision
The latest benchmark revision of the All‑Employees Total Nonfarm Vintage index reveals that post‑Liberation Day employment figures are weaker than previously reported, especially for August. The revised data shows a sharper decline during months associated with tariff policies, while months...
US Loses Cheap‑borrower Advantage, Now Pays Debt Premium
The US exorbitant privilege - the ability to issue debt more cheaply than others - ended about a decade ago. We're now issuing debt at a premium, the result of deficits and debt that are out of control. This change...
CPI Insights on Friday the 13th: Inflation Talk
I will be on @YahooFinance at 8:30 am today to talk about the CPI. Friday the 13th and inflation. (My preview thread below.)
January CPI Likely Spikes Amid Data Gaps
Tomorrow is CPI for January. It's a month that has burned us repeatedly -- core CPI inflation (month-over-month) tends to pick up in January. Consensus forecast has a pickup *but* we do not have a clear sense of the...
Tight Credit Spreads, Fast‑Food Struggles, Tariff Burden Revealed
🆓 Thursday links: tight credit spreads, fast food woes, and who is paying the cost of tariffs. https://t.co/NOuKmm78S8 image: https://t.co/Lhs7cz5vWL https://t.co/nj3y6g7t8i