Today's Bonds Pulse
US Treasury market steadies after Iran conflict sparks volatility
The US Treasury market has settled back to pre‑war calm following turbulence triggered by the Iran conflict, and expectations for bond‑market swings have fallen to near their lowest level of the year. Meanwhile, 30‑year Treasury yields slipped from a 19‑year high as optimism builds.
Will Bonds Outperform Stocks in 2026? Why the Timing Might Be Right To Double Down on Bonds.
Bond ETFs are poised to challenge equity returns in 2026 as central banks move from aggressive tightening to policy normalization. The Invesco Equal Weight 0‑30 Year Treasury ETF (GOVI) offers a diversified, lower‑volatility alternative to the long‑duration iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT). High absolute yields and an expected steepening of the currently inverted short‑term curve create a compelling yield‑attractiveness thesis. If the Federal Reserve trims rates later in the year, long‑term Treasuries could deliver returns comparable to the S&P 500.
MacroVoices #519 Alex Gurevich: The Next Perfect Trade
Alex Gurevich joins Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna on MacroVoices to outline his outlook for fixed‑income markets and the broader macro environment. He argues that the Federal Reserve will keep a restrictive policy stance into 2026, keeping inflation pressures in...
Headline Inflation Cools, Core CPI Accelerates in January
Wall Street expects a cooler month for headline inflation but a hotter month for core in January Headline CPI: 0.26% m/m, 2.5% y/y (down from 0.31% m/m and 2.7% y/y in December) Core CPI: 0.34% m/m, 2.5% y/y (core m/m accelerating from...
After 25 Years, California Should Rethink Citizen Bond Oversight Committees
California’s Proposition 39 created citizen bond oversight committees (CBOCs) to add accountability to school‑facility bonds, but two‑decades of experience show they have not uncovered fraud. Annual audits remain compliance‑focused, while most fraud cases surface through law‑enforcement or targeted state investigations. The...
Slower Data. Slower Morning
The bond market’s recent volatility, sparked by a strong jobs report, has calmed after this morning’s modest jobless‑claims data. Claims rose to 227,000, slightly above the 222,000 forecast but below the prior 232,000 level. With the CPI release looming, traders...
Steepening Yield Curve Could Shift QE Benefits to Main Street
How might the Fed/Treasury do that? One possibility is to cut short rates to steepen the yield curve, and deregulate the banks into buying the long end so that the Fed’s balance sheet can be “privatized.” If those QE assets...
SMAs, ETFs Continue to Be Popular with Retail Buyers: Conference Panel
Retail investors are increasingly gravitating toward separately managed accounts (SMAs) and exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) as flexible, tax‑efficient ways to access municipal bonds. Muni SMAs now manage roughly $1.3 trillion across about 180 managers, while ETF holdings in the sector jumped 22.4%...
Fed Treasury to Coordinate
Things have been quiet on the rate side, with the 10-year yield trading at around 4 ¼ percent and expectations for a few more rate cuts (down to 3.1%) holding firm. We will likely soon have a lot more coordination between...
U.S. Interest Costs Set to Double by 2036
By 2036, the U.S. will spend $2.14 TRILLION a year on interest payments, versus just $1 trillion today. U.S. taxpayers are being taken to the cleaners. They’re paying for yesterday’s government largesse and receiving nothing for it. https://t.co/xMUu3S9H8I
Rate Expectations
The episode dissects the impact of January's surprisingly strong jobs report, which undermined expectations of a weakening labor market and pushed anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts further into the future. It also examines a new Congressional Budget Office outlook that...
Risk‑off Sentiment Set to Dis
Risk off upending most auction setups as US Treasury gets ready to dump some serious duration into a strong rally across the curve with belly leading. https://t.co/vNjhvRIzxH
Amundi Expands Its Bond Offering on the LSE with a New Sterling ETF
Amundi has launched the Amundi Core GBP Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Dist on the London Stock Exchange, beginning trading on 12 February 2026. The fund tracks the Bloomberg Sterling Aggregate Corporate TR Value Unhedged GBP index, providing exposure to investment‑grade UK corporate...
Dedollarisation Isn't Driving Yields Lower, Media Misleads
Is Dedollarisation driving bond yields lower or is social media pushing the wrong story? A deep dive into dollar strength, Fed policy, gold, and global trade dynamics. Full breakdown inside 👉️ : https://t.co/qdYNFtTIhV https://t.co/rMDnvdP14u
Update on the Procurement for Digital Gilt Instrument (DIGIT) Pilot
The UK Treasury announced an update on the Digital Gilt Instrument (DIGIT) pilot, selecting HSBC’s Orion platform as the technology provider and Ashurst LLP for legal services. The competitive tender, launched in October 2025, aims to test distributed‑ledger technology for...
Fed Should ‘Aggressively’ Be Cutting Rates, Investor Says Amid Jobs Report Release
Anthony Pompliano, CEO of Professional Capital Management, argued on “Making Money” that the Federal Reserve should aggressively cut interest rates following the latest jobs report. He noted that the labor market remains solid but still offers room for monetary easing...
Green Financing of Airports – Swedavia’s New Framework Casts Light on Global Developments
Swedavia, Sweden’s state‑owned airport operator, unveiled a green‑bond framework to fund airport infrastructure through public‑private partnerships. The model ties financing to ESG criteria, requiring projects such as terminals, car parks and people movers to meet strict environmental standards, often incorporating...
Munis Mixed, UST Yields Rise Post-Jobs Report
Municipal bond prices were mixed on Wednesday as U.S. Treasury yields climbed following a stronger‑than‑expected jobs report, prompting market participants to reassess the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut. The two‑year muni‑UST spread slipped to 59% while longer‑dated...
Stunning Resilience
The 10‑year Treasury yield slipped 8 basis points after a trio of surprisingly strong labor‑market releases, settling just below the 4.20% technical barrier. January’s payrolls added 130,000 jobs, far exceeding the 70,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%...
American Dream Bonds Tumble
Municipal bonds financing New Jersey's American Dream megamall slumped nearly 18% after bondholders sued over a contested property assessment. The 7% PILOT bonds due 2050 traded at 78 cents, the lowest price since issuance in 2017, while similar 6.75% bonds...
EU Debt Issuance
If the EU were only able to issue its own debt, imagine the possibilities… Yeah, imagine if you gave EU bureaucrats the power to spend an astronomical amount in addition to its power to regulate https://t.co/KAqbSOG71R
Trump’s Trillion-Dollar Savings Claim Ignores Fixed-Rate Debt
Trump says lower rates would save "at least one trillion dollars per year." The federal government's entire annual net interest bill was $970 billion in fiscal 2025—and much of that is locked in at rates on previously issued debt that...
Credit Crunch: Investor Survey 1Q - Fed, Earnings, Tech Supply
In this episode, Mahesh Bhimalingam of Bloomberg Intelligence and Ashwin Palta of BNY Investments discuss the Bloomberg Intelligence 1Q26 Investor Survey, highlighting the continued resilience of credit and high‑yield markets despite recent tariff shocks and rate volatility. They examine why...
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CMWAY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported a solid second‑half 2025 performance, with cash net profit climbing 6% and earnings per share increasing $0.19. The bank highlighted disciplined growth across its core retail and business segments despite cost‑of‑living pressures and global uncertainty....
MLPI: Supercharging MLPs For 15% Yields
NEOS MLP High Income ETF (MLPI) aims to deliver roughly 15% after‑tax yields by layering covered‑call premiums on a portfolio that mirrors the AMLP structure. The fund’s 100% return‑of‑capital distribution model defers taxes, boosting net income for investors. In addition...
MPV: High-Quality Fund But Expensive At This Time
Barings Participation Investors (MPV) is a high‑quality, income‑focused closed‑end fund delivering a 7.8% yield and solid dividend coverage. The fund’s floating‑rate private‑credit portfolio positions it to profit from future interest‑rate cuts. However, shares currently trade at a 21% premium to...
Ladder Capital: No Harm In Positioning Itself Conservatively
Ladder Capital (LADR) continues to position itself as a low‑volatility, conservatively managed CRE REIT, with management holding over 10% of the equity. The Q4 2025 report showed a miss on dividend coverage, yet the portfolio remains anchored by more than...
China Vanke Downsizes Serviced Apartment Business After Record Red Ink
China Vanke, a state‑backed developer, announced a record 82 billion yuan ($11.8 billion) loss for 2025. The loss prompted the company to shrink its serviced‑apartment business, scaling back operations in Shenzhen under the Port Apartment brand. The move is part of a...
FTSE 100 Live: Heathrow Traffic Record; Homebuilders Call for Help
UK’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.3% after a string of negative corporate news. Energy giant BP announced a suspension of its share buyback programme and heightened cost‑cutting targets to fund oil production, while Standard Chartered saw its finance chief Diego De Giorgi...
Voya Strategic Income Opportunities Fund Q4 2025 Commentary
Voya’s Strategic Income Opportunities Fund delivered outperformance in Q4 2025, surpassing its ICE BofA USD 3‑Month Deposit Index benchmark on a net asset value basis. The quarter was marked by heightened policy uncertainty due to a government shutdown, alongside market turbulence driven by a...
Thornburg Municipal Bond Funds Q4 2025 Commentary
U.S. fixed‑income markets ended 2025 on a positive note as Federal Reserve rate cuts and cooling inflation lifted bond prices. Thornburg's municipal bond funds posted mixed returns, with the AAA curve flattening and short‑term yields rising while longer maturities fell....
Tradeweb Markets: Growth Outlook Remains Robust
Tradeweb Markets posted 12.5% year‑over‑year revenue growth in Q4 2025 and expanded its adjusted EBITDA margin to 53.2%, driven by strong volume gains in rates and derivatives. Early 2026 data shows double‑digit daily volume growth, supporting the firm’s high‑teens growth...
Country Garden Shares Edge up After Regulators Hold Back on Fines over Debt Disclosures
Country Garden shares rose about 1.8% after the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a circulated criticism for delayed debt disclosures but stopped short of imposing fines. The regulator flagged failures across three reporting periods and recorded disciplinary action against the firm...
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Robinhood held its Q4 2025 earnings call on February 10 2026, where CEO Vladimir Tenev and CFO Shiv Verma presented a solid financial rebound. Revenue rose 18% year‑over‑year to $1.2 billion and the net loss narrowed to $150 million, reflecting higher margin contributions from crypto...
BNY Mellon Global Fixed Income Fund Q4 2025 Commentary
The BNY Mellon Global Fixed Income Fund posted a 0.67% return in Q4 2025, lagging its Bloomberg Global Aggregate USD‑Hedged benchmark by 11 basis points. Japanese government bonds surged, pushing the 10‑year yield 42 bp above the 2% threshold for the first...
XOMA Royalty: Preferreds Still Offer Compelling Income Despite Call Risk
XOMA Royalty Corporation’s 8.375% cumulative preferred (XOMAO) trades at an attractive 8.3% yield, positioning it as a high‑income vehicle. The company added 24 royalty‑related assets in 2025, expanding its cash‑flow base from biotech milestones and licensing fees. Management highlights the...
Bristow Group: Strong Long-Term Setup, Near-Term Execution Still Key
Bristow Group (VTOL) is positioned for medium‑term growth, capitalising on robust offshore energy demand in Brazil, Africa and the Caribbean. Recent debt refinancing and stronger free‑cash flow have shored up its balance sheet, enabling planned share buybacks and a 2026...
Citadel and Cathie Wood Back Zero, a New Blockchain Designed for Traditional Finance
LayerZero, backed by Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia, unveiled Zero—a new blockchain built for traditional finance. The network leverages zero‑knowledge proofs to claim 2 million transactions per second at sub‑cent costs, far outpacing Solana’s 100k TPS limit. Wall Street heavyweights including Citadel Securities,...
Google’s 100‑Year AI Bond: Ambitious or Foolhardy?
Google issuing a 100-year bond to fund AI capex. Remember JC Penney’s 100-year bond? Issued in 1997. Bankrupt in 2020. At least they got their basis back in coupons.
China’s US Treasurys Exit Could Limit Japan’s Military Spending
China is directing state‑owned banks to cut U.S. Treasury holdings to roughly $750 billion by 2025, halving its 2010 peak. The reduction removes a major buyer from the market, shifting the financing burden toward Japan, the world’s largest foreign‑reserve holder. Japan’s...
Oxbridge Re Unveils New Tokenized Reinsurance Sidecar Securities with 20% & 42% Return Targets
Oxbridge Re Holdings has launched two new tokenized reinsurance sidecar tranches, T20-2027 and T42-2027, targeting 20% and 42% annual returns. The securities are issued on the Solana blockchain, replacing the earlier Avalanche platform. Prior token offerings delivered strong performance, including...
Arbol and Pollen Systems Partner on Parametric Product for Agricultural & Climate Challenges
Arbol and Pollen Systems, backed by Esri and Omniris, have launched a parametric insurance product that fuses AI‑driven risk models with real‑time satellite, drone and field data. The solution leverages Esri’s GIS platform to deliver location‑aware insights throughout the policy...
Bonds Taking a Pre-NFP Lead-Off
Bond yields pulled back toward the 4.1‑4.2% band after weak retail‑sales data, reversing a brief flirtation with the 4.30% ceiling on the 10‑year Treasury. The market is now pricing in a softer labor outlook ahead of the February non‑farm payrolls...
BP Finally Admits Debt Exceeds $50 Billion, Not $22 Billion
Regular readers know we at @Opinion had flagged BP had far more debt than the company's prefered metric (~$22 bn). Look at net debt + hybrids + leases + off-balance sheet items and it's >$50 bn. Now, BP acknowledges the issue...
Software Selloff Hits BDCs, Creditors May Be at Risk
“Business Development Companies” have been hammered in the recent software selloff. Alphaville dug into the data of some of the biggest ones to find out if software creditors are in trouble. https://t.co/ybVLHwLoCi https://t.co/AMQPhflF5J
TLT's 15-Year Low ATR Signals Potential Breakout
$TLT : The Average True Range (orange) is now the lowest in over 15 years. Something has to give. Might the plummeting @truflation readings be a clue to which direction a breakout might occur? https://t.co/0pEENxYpXs
IG Spreads Widen Despite Equity Rally, Hinting Supply Worries
IG credit spreads wider +4bps from late-Jan yet HY wider by only +2bps. Last two days have seen +2.5% equity upside that statistically should mean IG spreads -2bps. May be nothing, may be worries about supply. A "balanced" IG...
Weak Data Fuels Bonds, 15% Growth Now Unrealistic
Soft retail sales, ECI flat for quarter and ADP jobs figures on the low end of expectations. Good data for the bond market, but that 15% GDP growth rate looks out of reach.
U.S. Large Caps Lead Inflows; High‑Yield Bonds Lose Ground
U.S. large caps dominated inflows last week, followed by global equities and consumer cyclicals ... high yield bonds saw most outflows, but broader fixed income universe was still positive @DataArbor https://t.co/l0soXmQF4S
Record Wave of Large Bankruptcies Hits Weekly
How is this a healthy development? At least SIX big companies (liabilities >=$50M) have filed for bankruptcy EVERY WEEK during 3-wk period that began Jan 10, a level matched a handful of times since the turn of the century…last week alone...
Alphabet's Sterling Bond Hits Record £4.5bn Demand
#Alphabet sterling bond raises a record £4.5 bn, with £24 bn in bids. They may start borrowing on behalf of Bessent if it continues like this $GOOG