Today's Bonds Pulse
Bond Yields Surge to 19-Year High, Sparking Stock Market Concerns
The 30‑year Treasury yield climbed to a 19‑year peak while the 10‑year rose from 4.03% to 4.69% before easing to about 4.5%. Goldman Sachs research notes that half‑percentage‑point spikes in yields typically turn short‑term S&P 500 returns negative, heightening correction risk. Inflation is running at 3.8% year‑over‑year, fueling the sell‑off.
Russell Investments Expands Canadian ETF Lineup With Five New Offerings
Russell Investments Canada Limited announced the launch of five new exchange‑traded funds on the Toronto Stock Exchange, adding two fixed‑income products (HALO and RBND) and three multi‑factor equity funds (RQCA, RQUS, RQIN). The fixed‑income ETFs carry a 0.35% management fee, while the equity ETFs charge 0.30%. HALO targets "fallen angels" – bonds downgraded from investment grade – and RBND combines active fixed‑income exposure with HALO. The equity ETFs bring Russell’s proprietary multi‑factor strategies to an ETF wrapper, expanding cost‑effective core options for advisor‑driven portfolios.
Upcoming UST Auctions May Cool Rally, Create Opportunity
Busy UST auction schedule in the next eight days could finally slowdown the rally a bit and offer an opportunity. Brand new 20s ($16B) today, new 30y TIPS tomorrow ($9B), and regular size/schedule 2s, 5s and 7s next week.
ECB Yield Caps Mask Fiscal Fragility, Exit Bond Markets
ECB yield caps give the illusion of fiscal sustainability, but it's just an illusion. A real shock like Russia's invasion of Ukraine shows high-debt countries have no money to help Ukraine. For the sake of Europe, the ECB needs to...
Heads Up: US Treasury to Release TIC Data Later Today
The US Treasury will publish its latest International Capital (TIC) data, showing foreign investors holding a record $9.36 trillion of Treasury securities. China’s holdings slipped to roughly $683 billion, the lowest level since 2008, while Japan remains the top holder with about...
Climate-Focused Credit Specialist Returns to AP4
Ulf Erlandsson is returning to Sweden’s Fourth National Pension Fund (AP4) as Senior Fixed Income Portfolio Manager for liquid credit, after nearly a decade on the hedge‑fund side. He founded the Anthropocene Fixed Income Institute, a climate‑focused research nonprofit, and...
Debtwire Middle-Market – 2/16/2026
The VanEck BDC Income ETF is yielding 12.3% as of 12 February, just below its five‑year high of 12.8% reached in April 2025. In contrast, the BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield index has slipped to 6.6%, down from an 8.5%...
FTSE 100 Live: Inflation Falls to Near Year-Low; BAE Leads Stock Rally
UK inflation eased to a near‑year low, with the CPI falling to 3% year‑on‑year in January 2026, down from 3.4% in December. The slowdown, driven by lower petrol, airfares and food prices, has revived expectations that the Bank of England...
Overseas Investors Tap Brakes on JGB Selling Post-Election
The Liberal Democratic Party’s landslide victory in Japan’s snap election has steadied the government‑bond market, halting a sharp rise in long‑term yields. Foreign institutional investors, who had been offloading JGBs, have paused sales and begun modest buying. Domestic investors are...
Stop Overpaying For PDI
The PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund (PDI) is trading at roughly a 12% premium to its net asset value, delivering a near‑14% yield and monthly distributions. While its strong distribution history appeals to income investors, the fund’s leverage and sensitivity to...
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis – 2/16/2026
Business development companies (BDCs) have seen their share price to net asset value (NAV) ratios slip lower as investors anticipate reduced base rates and grapple with heightened software sector exposure. The average price‑to‑NAV now sits below 95%, reflecting a widening...
ICMA Publishes Guide to Repo Markets: South Africa
ICMA has published an open‑access guide to South Africa’s repurchase (repo) market, the ninth edition in its global series of market‑specific manuals. The guide outlines the market’s structure, collateral types, counterparties, infrastructure, and the legal‑regulatory framework. Funding came from Strate’s...
VPLS: Another Look At This Solid, Vanilla Vanguard Bond ETF
Vanguard’s Core‑Plus Bond ETF (VPLS) is an actively managed fund that targets investment‑grade bonds, Treasuries, and mortgage‑backed securities while holding modest amounts of foreign and high‑yield debt. Compared with its passive benchmark, the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND), VPLS...
US Treasuries Slip as Rally Loses Steam on Steady Labor Data
U.S. Treasury yields edged higher on Tuesday, halting a recent rally as steady private‑payroll data reinforced expectations of a still‑robust labor market. The benchmark 10‑year yield closed at 4.06%, while the two‑year rose to 3.43%, reflecting market pricing of two...
Calm Start Even if Modestly Weaker
U.S. Treasury yields opened modestly weaker on Tuesday after a volatile three‑day‑weekend, but steadied by mid‑morning. The 10‑year note rose to 4.06% before trading flat through the close, marking a calm finish despite earlier upside pressure. No fresh economic releases...
AMC Refires $2.5B to Trim Maturity Wall
AMC moving to clean up its maturity wall. $2.5B package taking out 2027 notes (12.75%) and 2029 TL If it prices well, decently lower interest burden. $AMC
PRESS RELEASE: BIGBEN ANNOUNCES IMPORTANT INFORMATION REGARDING THE PARTIAL REPAYMENT OF ITS BOND LOAN
Bigben Interactive announced that its banking pool unexpectedly refused to honor a drawdown notice for the partial refinancing of its senior bonds, leaving the company unable to execute the planned €43 million partial repayment on the February 19 maturity date. The...
Corporate Health Outlook: Improvement Broadens as Expectations Rise
Loomis Sayles’ Credit Analyst Diffusion Indices (CANDIs) survey shows analyst optimism at its highest in several quarters, driven by stronger profit margins and declining leverage across most industries. Margin expectations rose sharply for both services and manufacturing, while leverage fell to...
Fed Says AI Boom Won’t Prompt Rate Cuts
Fed governor Michael Barr's latest speech contains 1) A short part on the current policy outlook. The key guidance: "Based on current conditions and the data in hand, it will likely be appropriate to hold rates steady for some time." 2) A...
AI Firms, Data Centers to Issue $220B Debt, Outpace Banks
AI cos and data centers are expected to issue $220 billion of debt this year, making up 15% of JPM's high-grade bond index (and making them bigger issuers than banks) https://t.co/LPkxfJGhNK
Mostly Holding Last Week's Impressive Gains
U.S. Treasury bonds extended last week’s rally by a few basis points in early domestic trading, though the advance faded later in the session. Market participants attribute part of the prior week’s rise to defensive positioning ahead of a three‑day...
TLT Seen as Lower High, Still Hating Treasuries
I think I might be the only person in the world who still hates US Treasuries here. $TLT is just another lower high imo until proven wrong.
SwapsInfo Full Year 2025 and the Fourth Quarter of 2025 Review
SwapsInfo reports a 46.1% jump in interest‑rate‑derivatives (IRD) notional to $536.5 trillion in 2025, with trade count rising 22.9% to 3.3 million. Short‑dated contracts dominate, representing 71.5% of IRD notional, while cleared transactions account for 86.6% of total notional. Swap execution facilities...
Fitch Downgrades Missouri Hospital to ‘D’ Rating
Fitch downgraded John Fitzgibbon Memorial Hospital in Marshall, Missouri to a “D” rating from “C” and withdrew its issuer and bond ratings after the hospital defaulted on required debt payments. The default concerns principal and interest on 2010 bonds, and...
L&G to Maintain Exposure to Catastrophe Bonds Despite Spread Tightening
Legal & General Investment Management will keep its catastrophe‑bond exposure despite recent spread compression. The firm’s portfolio, estimated at a minimum of $400 million, remains in diversified multi‑asset funds while it waits for more attractive entry points. Turner and Dietz note...
Convergence: Navigating the Blurred Lines Between Public and Private Credit
In a recent InsuranceAUM interview, Chris Gudmastad, Head of Private Credit, discusses the growing convergence between public and private credit markets. He highlights how blended financing structures are blurring traditional asset class boundaries and reshaping investment opportunities. The conversation underscores...
Fed Rarely Cuts Rates During >8% Nominal Growth
"The Federal Reserve has cut rates only a handful of times when nominal growth was greater than 8 per cent and most of those instances were in the 1970s." Richard Bernstein @RBAdvisors in the FT https://t.co/vzNnkKmGpY
New Projections Quiet Bond Vigilantes, Ease Debt Fears
New US deficit and growth projections ""suggest a quiet period ahead for bond vigilantes and others who hand-wring over the unsustainable nature of the US debt and the inevitable market revolt – the Godot for which they have waited impatiently...
Underwriting Spreads Rise in 2025
Underwriting spreads for municipal bonds rose again in 2025, reaching an average of $4.30 per $1,000, up from $4.23 in 2024. Negotiated‑deal spreads increased to $4.64 while competitive‑deal spreads fell to $1.78. The uptick coincides with record issuance volumes—$586 billion in...
Rate Moves Aren’t Driven by Current Data, ADP Shows
Big mistake is assuming move in rates is about current economic data. Reaction to ADP a good example
ECB Favors High-Debt Nations, Sidelining Low-Debt Germany
Low-debt countries like Germany are hopelessly outnumbered at the ECB. That's why ECB policy is inexorably drifting to help high-debt countries at the expense of low debt ones. So no surprise BuBa President Nagel supports Eurobonds. Going with the flow......
Getting Paid to Wait for Deleveraging
The episode examines a REIT's high‑yield bond, which trades above 7% with a 340‑basis‑point spread despite solid market fundamentals and improving leasing. Management is actively selling $280‑300 million of assets, using proceeds to cut debt and potentially buy back bonds, positioning...
Global Bonds Yield Under 5%, Delivering ~2% Real Return
Almost 90% of global public bonds trade at a yield lower than 5%: Apollo's Torsten Slok. "With inflation at close to 3%, this means that investors in public fixed income only get a 2% real return each year." https://t.co/oCUWfCIGpn
Weak UK Data, German Outlook Boost USD, Lift JPY
Disappointing UK jobs data and German ZEW expectations is helping the $USD extend its gains today. Robust reception to Japan's 5yr bond sales helped ignite JGB rally and lifted the $JPY. Softer US rates and heavier equities after US holiday....
Challenger Life’s Cat Bond Investments Beat Benchmark in Last Half-Year
Challenger Life, an Australian life insurer, reported that its catastrophe bond and broader insurance‑linked securities (ILS) investments outperformed the Plenum CAT Bond UCITS Fund Index over the last six months. The cat bond segment delivered a return above the index’s...
38% Expect Warsh Chair to Push Yields Higher, Dollar Lower
"38% of FMS investors believe that, all else equal, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair will likely lead to higher US Treasury yields and a lower US dollar." - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey https://t.co/5m0L3ZjRg1
Private Credit: Poised For Growth
Asia‑Pacific private credit is entering a rapid expansion phase, with issuance projected to rise from $59 billion in 2024 to $92 billion by 2027. Industry leaders such as SC Lowy and Moody’s cite digitalization, the energy transition, and infrastructure needs as primary catalysts,...
Indian Banks: From Credit Provision to Liquidity Provision?
India’s corporate funding is increasingly sourced domestically as the yield gap with US Treasuries narrows to about 2.5%, eroding the cost advantage of foreign‑currency debt. Deepening private‑credit markets now finance even near‑investment‑grade borrowers, exemplified by a recent $3.4 billion rupee‑denominated deal....
Yen Rises Slightly as JGB Auction Passes Test
The yen edged higher in thin Asian trading as the Japanese currency modestly strengthened. The latest five‑year JGB auction posted a bid‑to‑cover ratio of 3.10, the first rise since September, indicating easing election‑related stress. RBA minutes reinforced a tightening bias...
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for February 13, 2026
U.S. Treasury rates slipped across the curve in the week ending February 13, 2026. The 30‑year yield fell 0.16%, while the benchmark 10‑year dropped 0.18% to 4.04%. The 3‑year note settled at 3.43%. The declines reflect modest easing in market...
Private Credit Bets on Software Amid AI Uncertainty
Five private credit firms just provided $1.4B for a software buyout of OneStream valued at $6.4B. Same week everyone’s asking whether AI will make these companies obsolete. The market is telling you software is at risk. The lenders are telling you...
Fitch Ratings Assigns ‘a’ Rating to Lee County, Florida Airport Revenue Bonds Series 2026
Fitch Ratings assigned an ‘A’ rating to Lee County, Florida’s airport revenue bonds, Series 2026, and affirmed the rating on existing bonds with a stable outlook. The rating reflects a balanced carrier mix serving a leisure‑focused market and enplanements that...
Gold Overtakes Major Currencies as Dollar Reserve Share Plummets
⚠️The US Dollar's role in global reserves is FALLING: USD share in global currency reserves dropped to ~40%, the lowest in at least 25 years. This is down from ~58% a decade ago. During the same period, gold’s share has risen from 16%...
Alphabet and Meta CDS Explode From Zero to Top Traders
A year ago, CDS on Alphabet and Meta didn't exist. Now they're among the most actively traded single-name contracts in the US market Nobody creates a default insurance market for fun... $GOOG $META
Cohu: Maintaining Bearish Stance Post Q4 Earnings Release
Cohu, Inc. posted a Q4 earnings miss despite a 34% surge in recurring bookings and over 12% revenue growth, keeping operating losses and margins under pressure. The company added $290 million of convertible debt, raising dilution concerns, while one‑time inventory charges...
AI Disruption Drives Widening Credit Spreads Ahead of Earnings
AI disruption is hitting IG credit spreads, not just stock prices. Concentrix: BBB-rated, 455,000 call center employees. Paid 130bps concession to refinance. Stock down 24% last week. Spreads doubled in February. Credit markets pricing obsolescence before it shows up in earnings.
China's Surplus Doesn't Directly Boost US Treasury Holdings
Two things are simultaneously true -- a) China's surplus doesn't automatically flow into its fx reserves and then into Treasuries and Agencies b) China's large ongoing surplus (+ the increase in fx assets of the state banks) cautions against using the...
S&P Global: An Undervalued Dividend King For Long-Term Investors
S&P Global (SPGI) is a $133 billion market‑cap provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions. The company has raised its dividend for 53 consecutive years and trades at a 21.9× P/E, roughly 20% below its five‑year average, implying undervaluation....
Foreign Central Banks Sell USTs Even as Dollar Weakens
One of a number of potentially important macro divergences that occurred in 2H25 is shown below. For the prior 10+ years, foreign Central Banks sold USTs when the USD rose and bought USTs when the USD fell. In 2H25, foreign CB’s sold...
Bond Futures Surge as Curve Flattens, Front
Bond futures well bid again as the curve flattens aggressively with front end whites all red. https://t.co/d4dX0TgauD
EUREP Expansion and the Euro – Going Global
The European Central Bank announced that, from the third quarter of 2026, it will expand its EUREP euro repo facility to a global €50 billion line available to any central bank that meets AML and sanctions criteria. The repo offers euro...