Today's Bonds Pulse
Bond Yields Surge to 19-Year High, Sparking Stock Market Concerns
The 30‑year Treasury yield climbed to a 19‑year peak while the 10‑year rose from 4.03% to 4.69% before easing to about 4.5%. Goldman Sachs research notes that half‑percentage‑point spikes in yields typically turn short‑term S&P 500 returns negative, heightening correction risk. Inflation is running at 3.8% year‑over‑year, fueling the sell‑off.
WDI May Benefit From Shifting Interest Rate Policy
Western Asset Diversified Income Fund (WDI) trades at a 3.04% discount to NAV and offers a 12.41% yield, positioning it as a high‑yield income vehicle. The fund’s portfolio is heavily weighted toward high‑yield corporate bonds and a sizable floating‑rate component, exposing it to both credit and interest‑rate risk. Potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 could pressure floating‑rate holdings, while a stable or rising‑rate environment may enhance returns. Analyst Michael Del Monte recommends WDI as a buy, citing dynamic management and a supportive US macro outlook.
Most Weekly BDC Discounts Are Mispriced—Learn Why
Everyone has a BDC take this week. Most of them are wrong. If you don't understand how they trade, what drives the discount, or why NAV isn't what you think it is, start here. https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/the-bdc-primer-part-1
Viva Loans Vegas: Blackstone's $3bn Re-Up for The Cosmopolitan Signals High-Tier CMBS Conviction
The episode examines Blackstone’s $3.05 billion CMBS refinancing of The Cosmopolitan in Las Vegas, highlighting the surge in high‑quality hospitality securitizations and the city’s enduring appeal to institutional investors. Guests Randy Plavajka and Shihao Feng explain how post‑pandemic destination resilience and a growing...
Virtus Newfleet Multi-Sector Bond ETF Q4 2025 Commentary
The Virtus Newfleet Multi‑Sector Bond ETF posted a 1.64% NAV return in Q4 2025, beating the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index’s 1.10% gain. The fund’s deliberate underweight to U.S. Treasuries captured excess returns as spread‑rich sectors outperformed. Management continued to fine‑tune...
RSBT ETF: It's A Directional Bet, Not A Diversification Vehicle
The Return Stacked Bonds & Managed Futures ETF (RSBT) posted a 12.25% year‑over‑year price gain after a tough 2022‑23 inflation cycle. The fund allocates capital between the AGG bond ETF and a suite of trend‑following managed‑futures strategies, positioning it as...
Global Market | Japan’s Tightening Cycle Could Redraw the Map of Global Market Liquidity
The Bank of Japan has ended its ultra‑easy stance, pushing policy rates to the highest level in decades and pricing in another hike. Higher domestic yields are likely to trigger repatriation of Japanese savings, cutting the flow of low‑cost funding...
December PCE Inflation Hits Multi‑Year Highs
Forecasters expect PCE inflation (core and headline) was 0.37% in December (4.5% annualized rate). This would push up the core PCE index to 3.0% over 12 months, the highest since February 2025 Headline PCE is estimated at 2.9%, the highest since March...
ICMA Responds to FCA Consultation on Improving the UK Transaction Reporting Regime
ICMA responded to the FCA’s CP25/32 consultation on improving the UK transaction‑reporting regime, focusing on MiFIR cash‑bond reporting and the SFTR repo reporting framework. The feedback was produced by two dedicated ICMA working groups—a newly formed MiFIR Transaction Reporting Taskforce...
TIP Solar Raises $179.7 Million in ABS From Residential Solar, PPA Leases
TIP Solar, backed by GoodLeap’s residential solar leases and PPAs, has issued $179.7 million in asset‑backed securities. The ABS are collateralized by 7,812 leases held by Jaguar Solar Owner 2026‑1 and structured into A‑ and B‑tranches with anticipated repayments through March 2033 and...
30-Year TIPS Auction Gets Real Yield of 2.473%, Second Highest in 16 Years
The U.S. Treasury’s latest 30‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS) auction posted a real yield of 2.473%, the second‑highest level in the past 16 years and the highest since the series was relaunched in February 2010. Demand was strong, with the...
How Bond Ladder ETFs Reimagine Retirement Income Strategies
Bond ladder ETFs are emerging as a transparent alternative for retirees seeking steady, inflation‑protected income. The Northern Trust 2045 Inflation‑Linked Distributing Ladder ETF (TIPC) structures a 20‑year ladder of TIPS, delivering annual principal payouts as each rung matures. By evenly...
CLO ETFs: The “Arms Race” Heats Up
CLO ETFs have surged into the mainstream, pulling in $4 billion of net inflows in the first six weeks of 2026. Total assets now top $35 billion, more than doubling in just over a year, with most money flowing into AAA‑rated funds....
SageSure Moves up to Third in Our Cat Bond Sponsor Leaderboard, as Largest Gateway Re Closes
SageSure has risen to third place on the Artemis catastrophe‑bond sponsor leaderboard after closing its largest Gateway Re issuance, a $670 million multi‑peril cat bond. The transaction brings the MGU’s outstanding risk capital to just over $3.1 billion across 12 issuances. The...
The Link Between Interest Rates and Exchange Rates : The Uncovered Interest Parity
The post examines how the 10‑year US‑German bond yield spread correlates with the USD/EUR exchange rate, showing that higher US yields usually coincide with dollar appreciation. A notable exception occurred after April 2 2025, when a sharp US yield rise was followed...
Veritas Looks Beyond Benchmarks to Frontier Markets for Carry
Veritas, the Finnish pension insurer, is moving past traditional credit benchmarks to chase carry in frontier‑market local‑currency bonds. Portfolio manager Ville Iso‑Mustajärvi argues that corporate spreads in developed markets are near historic lows, making high‑yield bonds unattractive due to equity‑like...
An Update to the Update of One of My Favorite Energy Credits
The episode revisits the author’s earlier research reports from October and December 2025 on a leading natural‑gas utility, reaffirming its investment thesis built on ultra‑low leverage, a management team focused on debt reduction, high‑quality assets, and accelerating free cash flow....
Bloomberg Indices Expands Futures-Based Index Offering
Bloomberg announced the Bloomberg Eris SOFR Swap Futures Tracker Indices, a suite of 11 new rules‑based indices that track the performance of Eris SOFR swap futures across the U.S. dollar interest‑rate curve. The indices span tenors from one‑year to 30‑year...
Nordea’s Active Rates Strategy Tops €1 Billion
Nordea’s Active Rates Opportunities Fund has broken the €1 billion AUM threshold, underscoring strong investor appetite for low‑risk, active‑duration fixed‑income solutions. Since its 2019 launch, the fund has delivered more than 2 % per annum in net returns above cash, even as...
Fixed Income Disaster: Will Investors Ever Forget?
The article argues that quantitative easing and expansive fiscal policies have propelled equities while leaving long‑duration bonds lagging, with gold emerging as the top performer since 2022. Chart data shows the S&P 500 up over 700% since 2010, whereas TLT...
China Cuts US Treasury Holdings to Crisis Low
🚨Chinese officials had urged banks to limit purchases of US government bonds, and instructed those with high exposure to SELL their positions. Data shows China’s holdings of US Treasuries fell to $682.6 billion, the lowest since the Financial Crisis.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/is-the-us-dollar-gradually-losing-its-safe-haven-status
90% of Govt Money Creation Neutralized by Bond Sales
I've been teaching this for decades, and now the data proves it: 90% of government money creation between 2000 and 2024 was cancelled out by secondary bond sales. The system we have actively destroys the money governments create. EconomicReform
IIFM and ICMA Formalise Strategic Partnership to Standardise Islamic Repo Markets
The International Islamic Financial Market (IIFM) and the International Capital Market Association (ICMA) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to create a global, Shari’ah‑compliant repo master agreement. Leveraging ICMA’s Global Master Repurchase Agreement expertise and IIFM’s Islamic‑finance standards, the project...
Fed Minutes Omit 2% Inflation Target Date, Signaling Uncertainty
One more note on the Fed minutes: Sometimes it's interesting what they don't say. Last year at every meeting until December, the staff forecast called for inflation to return to 2% by 2027. In December, the forecast pushed this back to...
Discussing 2026 Credit Outlook, Including Private Credit
I will be joining @CNBC's @michaelsantoli this afternoon at 430p ET for a discussion of the credit markets--including, yes, private credit. Snip from our Outlook 2026. https://t.co/u8NP4oAYoL https://t.co/umYLiLDzTY
Sprite to Issue $495 Million in Aviation ABS Notes
Sprite’s aviation securitization platform is launching a $495 million asset‑backed securities (ABS) program backed by lease contracts on 30 aircraft. The issuance comprises three fixed‑rate tranches with an anticipated repayment date in March 2033 and a final legal maturity in March 2041. World...
Minor Rate Shift Not Truly Hawkish
in what world could revising up your dot which is ~100bps below OIS to ~50bps below OIS be considered “turning hawkish”?
Soft CPI at 2.4% Signals Declining Inflation Trend
Last week’s CPI report came in soft at 2.4%, which was understandably well received by the bond market. The Truflation index, which has plummeted to a 0.7% year-over-year rate of change, hinted at a softer turn for the CPI. https://t.co/ZsIPypfaNW
2026 Global Bond Credit Outlook: Q&A
European investment‑grade credit remains resilient in early 2026 despite a 2% YoY dip in EBITDA growth and modest leverage creep. Interest‑coverage ratios have stabilised and rating upgrades in Spain and Italy bolster the sector’s outlook. Spreads have tightened to historic...
30‑Year TIPS Auction Pressures Long‑End Breakevens
Long-end breakevens have been under pressure with a brand new 30y TIPS ($9B) up for auction later today. This will be it for the long end though. Rest of the month is front (2s) and belly (5s &...
Equity Futures Slip, Yields Rise Slightly Ahead of Jobless Claims
Thursday: Equity futures lower, treasury yields edge higher by 1-2 bps and dollar steady. Jobless claims in focus today.
Fed Minutes Suggest Willingness To Hike If Inflation Not Tamed
The Federal Reserve’s February 2026 FOMC minutes reveal that most participants remain uneasy about inflation, which is still above the central bank’s 2% target. The minutes signal a willingness to raise rates again if price pressures are not curbed, underscoring...
Retail Private Credit Set to Reach Trillions, Threaten Industry
The volume of retail-focused private credit funds has ballooned over the last few years, and is expected to grow to trillions of dollars of assets in that next few years. This points to why this could challenge the broader industry:...
TLT Call Skew at 90th Percentile, Expect Shakeout
Yep- Skew on TLT (calls expensive to outs) like 1 month out is in the 90th%tile. Gonna get shaken out before yields go lower. Let’s talk about this tomorrow on @ForwardGuidance
Northeast Issuers Juggle Crumbling Infrastructure, Increasing Costs
Northeast public issuers are grappling with crumbling infrastructure, rising construction costs and a wave of federal funding cuts. Tariffs and buy‑American requirements are inflating bus purchases for NJ Transit, while the Gateway tunnel project remains stalled after a $205 million funding...
Global Growth Slows, Rates Sticky; Shorten Treasury Duration
Macro: global growth slows; rates remain sticky. Key factors: US CPI, China demand, energy. Risks: policy missteps, inflation shocks. Trade: shorten duration in US Treasuries. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Fed Minutes Reveal Larger Faction Demanding Higher Cut Threshold
Minutes from the Fed's Jan. 27-28 meeting laid bare a lingering divide over where to set the bar for further rate cuts. In Fed speak, "some" is larger than "several" which means the group of "some" officials that includes those with...
Corpus Christi to Tap Future Bond Proceeds for Water Project Costs
The Corpus Christi City Council approved a resolution to tap up to $410 million in future water revenue bonds, slated for issuance as late as 2027, to reimburse current cash outlays for critical water‑supply projects. The plan funds a $175 million containerized...
PFM Partners up with DebtBook
PFM announced a partnership with DebtBook to embed artificial‑intelligence capabilities into public‑sector treasury operations, leveraging PFM's Synario financial‑modeling platform alongside DebtBook's debt‑management suite. The alliance aims to automate cash‑flow, leasing and investment tracking, freeing municipal finance teams to focus on...
Japan Accounting Group Seeks to Ease Insurer Bond Loss Rule
The Japanese Institute of Certified Public Accountants (JICPA) has proposed treating life insurers' government‑bond holdings as held‑to‑maturity, removing the need for impairment accounting when certain criteria are met. Under current rules insurers must record a loss if market value falls...
Rates Spark: Pressures Rebuild for Long Dates
Equity volatility in the US is easing, opening the door for a near‑term rally in 10‑year euro swap rates that sit about 20 basis points below their January peak. Market participants expect a bear‑steepening move as the front end of...
Demand Surge Compresses Bond Spreads Despite Record Issuance
Record bond issuance. Record trading volumes. Tighter spreads. More supply should widen spreads. Instead buyers are so hungry that more issuance actually improves liquidity and compresses risk premiums. This works until it doesn’t.
Equities Up, Trend Flattens Amid 4% Yield, Rotation
As for the markets, last week the Dow briefly reached the 50k milestone while the S&P 500 continued to hang out just below 7,000. The 10-year yield has been flirting with 4% again and the terminal rate for the Fed’s...
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Industrial Production
Industrial production rose 0.7% in January, outpacing the 0.4% forecast, and posted a 2.3% year‑over‑year gain. Utilities output surged 2.1% month‑over‑month, while mining slipped 0.2% and manufacturing climbed 0.6%. The index’s current level is at or below the start‑of‑recession threshold...
ASR Nederland N.V. (ARNNY) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
ASR Nederland N.V. held its Q4 2025 earnings call on February 18, 2026, presenting full‑year results and outlining progress on its multi‑year strategy. CEO J.P.M. Baeten highlighted stronger underwriting performance and a rise in net profit, while CFO Ewout Hollegien detailed improvements in...
CLOs Bet on Yield While AI Threatens Software Holdings
This is the CLO market right now: Sellers: AI will destroy these businesses Buyers: Thanks for the yield Software is the largest sector in CLO portfolios globally. 10-15% concentration. Nearly half mature in the next 3 years. Someone here is wrong.
Hawks Push Back, Hint at Two‑Sided Policy Language
FOMC minutes suggest that the hawks pushed back. "Several would support two-sided language" about policy direction and "several" noted that if inflation remains high, rate hikes might be necessary.
FOMC Minutes Reveal Split Views: Cut, Hold, or Hike
Key paragraph of the FOMC minutes from January. (I am honestly a bit confused by the 'minutes math.') The main takeaway is that there is considerable disagreement. Cut, hold, and (even possibly) hike all got a nod. https://t.co/eV9ldjldl1 https://t.co/K53g1yqKJ8
Lennar’s 13F Reveals 18.5M Opendoor
A note re: $OPEN and $Lennar --- if you back it out, Lennar held 18.5M shares of Opendoor at end of its Q3. The 13F likely indicates either they had some anti-dilution protections or participated in debt-for-equity swap, and that’s why...
FOMC Minutes Show Market‑Aligned Outlook, Fragile Jobs, Slowing Inflation
Few FOMC minutes takeaways: 1) Cmte basically in line with markets on major economic variables 2) Labor markets no longer outright weakening but remain fragile 3) Inflation decelerating as tariff passthru done, housing has downside (a misread on bad CPI method in Oct?) 1/...
March 2Y Futures Expected Heavy Amid Nasty Roll
Great reminder futures rolls (H25 to M26) are upon us. Bottomline March 2y futs should be heavy. Roll is nasty at -4.5 which should add to the flattening pressure along with front-end auctions next week.