Today's Bonds Pulse
Bond Yields Surge to 19-Year High, Sparking Stock Market Concerns
The 30‑year Treasury yield climbed to a 19‑year peak while the 10‑year rose from 4.03% to 4.69% before easing to about 4.5%. Goldman Sachs research notes that half‑percentage‑point spikes in yields typically turn short‑term S&P 500 returns negative, heightening correction risk. Inflation is running at 3.8% year‑over‑year, fueling the sell‑off.
Japan Mulls Revising Liquidity-Support JGB Auctions to Ease Market Pressure - Report
Japan's Ministry of Finance is weighing changes to its liquidity‑enhancement auction framework for government bonds, aiming to ease supply pressure on the super‑long end of the curve. From April, the mid‑term bucket could be narrowed from a 5‑15.5‑year range to 5‑11 years, while the long‑term bucket would cover 11‑under 39 years. The adjustment is intended to better match bond supply with investor demand, reduce upward pressure on yields, and restore confidence in the JGB market.
FPA Short Duration Government ETF Q4 2025 Commentary
FPA Short Duration Government ETF posted a 1.05% return in Q4 2025 and a 6.84% gain for the full year. The performance was driven by Treasury interest income and price appreciation as yields fell across the curve. The fund kept its...
Weighted Avg 2.3% Signals Bullish Breakout Over CBO
The probability weighted average of both @jasonfurman and the survey average is 2.3%*, i.e. solid breakout. That's bullish; CBO is at 1.8%. *(Assumes 5% for the >4% phase transition scenario. I figure probabilities of higher figures quickly fall to...
Widening Spreads Signal Potential Prolonged Market Shakeout
Truth: “If spreads keep widening and banks keep lagging, this is more than a one day shakeout. If they stabilize, this was the market resetting positioning and rotating and not the start of a whole new regime.”
SFA and Bloomberg Collaborate on Credit Securities Index
The Structured Finance Association (SFA) and Bloomberg Index Services are co‑creating a new credit securities index that spans multiple asset classes. Designed to deliver consistent, transparent performance and risk metrics, the index will be embedded directly into Bloomberg Terminal workflows...
GOLY: Gold And Fixed-Income Exposure Wrapped In One Paying 7% Distribution Yield
The Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF (GOLY) combines gold, commodity, and fixed‑income exposure using leverage to deliver a trailing‑twelve‑month distribution yield near 7%. Unlike many gold‑focused ETFs, GOLY does not write options, instead relying on bond income and capital...
COFINA Bondholder Case Against Insurers Is Set Back
A federal judge in Connecticut dismissed a lawsuit filed by former COFINA bondholders against insurers Ambac, MBIA and related subsidiaries, citing a lack of personal jurisdiction. The ruling allows plaintiffs to refile a second‑amended complaint against MBIA Inc. by March 6,...
IShares Moves Short-Term Bond ETFs to the Big Board
iShares has moved four of its short‑term fixed‑income ETFs—SGOV, SHV, PMMF and GMMF—from the electronic NYSE Arca platform to the NYSE’s hybrid floor model. The funds total roughly $96 billion in assets, with SGOV alone managing $75 billion and attracting about $6 billion of...
Annual Returns Converge Across Correlations, Volatility Varies
I vibe coded a widget to show the idea of the blog post below. It simulates yield curve evolutions and equity market returns. Then it plots the distribution of annualized returns and volatilities over a given horizon using...
Mortgage Spreads Push Rates Under 6% Despite 10‑yr Yield
#mortgagespreads have allowed rates to get below 6% without the 10-year yield below 4% @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Industry Participants Have Pulte’s Ear in First Year at FHFA
Documents obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request reveal that FHFA Director Bill Pulte met with a broad array of industry participants during the first seven months of his tenure. The schedule shows more than 150 engagements with banks,...
Short Takes: Expanded-Credit MBS From Redwood / MSRs on Offer / Rate Launches Crypto Option / Sales of New Homes...
Redwood introduced an expanded‑credit mortgage‑backed security, widening the pool of agency‑eligible assets as banks see their residential MBS holdings dip in Q4. Mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) are now being offered directly, reflecting heightened M&A activity that is reshaping the conventional...
The Bond Buyer Survey Shows Respondents' Concern About Politics
The Bond Buyer’s 2026 Predictions Survey, conducted with 74 public‑finance professionals, identified political uncertainty as the top five‑year threat to municipal finance, with 82% of respondents flagging it. Nearly half see tariff‑related volatility as a moderate to significant risk for...
Why Fixed Income ETFs Are Going Active
Fixed‑income ETFs have surged, yet most remain passive, contrasting sharply with the active dominance in mutual‑funds. J.P. Morgan’s report notes 85 % of global fixed‑income mutual‑fund assets are actively managed, while only about 17 % of fixed‑income ETF assets use active strategies....
Walller Signals Potential Rate‑Cut Pause Amid Improving Data
Potential pivot by @federalreserve Gov Chris Walller - IF the next retail sales & labor data continue to show signs of further improvement, like we saw in Jan, then would support a pause in rate cuts after dissenting in Jan....
Waller Says March Rate Move Hinges on Feb Payroll
Fed governor Chris Waller conditions his support for a March cut (or hold) on the February payroll data due for release on March 6. “As things stand today, I rate these two possible outcomes as close to a coin flip.” https://t.co/8ompstwgY9 If...
Global Parametrics Highlights How Parametric Products & Cat Bonds Can Scale Humanitarian Risk Financing
Global Parametrics’ new whitepaper argues that catastrophe bonds and parametric insurance can help bridge the widening humanitarian financing gap, which stands at roughly 36% of the projected $50 billion need in 2024. The report highlights that multi‑year cat bonds can unlock...
Mortgage Rates
5-handle The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 5.99% Same day last year: 6.89% ---------------------- 10-year treasury yield today: 4.03% Spread today: 196 bps
China Swapped US Treasuries for Commodities via BRI
How China largely sold out of their net UST exposure yrs ago AND cornered critical minerals without ever impacting UST or commodity markets: Lend USDs along Belt & Road (BRI), repayable in either USD, CNY, or physical commodities This amounted to swapping...
Debt Restructuring Is Senegal’s Best Bet
Senegal’s public debt has surged to roughly 132% of GDP, placing the country in a severe fiscal bind. With limited access to cheap financing, the government faces a stark choice between costly debt service and a structured debt‑restructuring process. Analysts...
Muni Flows Surge, Highlighting HNW Investor Appetite
Small sector (~3% of USD fixed income), but wild relative flows into munis indicative of HNW demand. https://t.co/tEbLFk9ZiL
10‑Year Yield Drops as Fed Begins Rate Cuts
U.S. 10-year yields $TNX with all the @federalreserve increase rate decreases (green circles) since the latest (rate dropping) cycle started in Sep '24... https://t.co/Tch3MSks2c
LGT Reinsurer Lumen Re Secures $175m of Retro From Debut Photon Re 2026-1 Cat Bond
Lumen Re, the reinsurance arm of LGT ILS Partners, completed its debut Photon Re Series 2026‑1 catastrophe bond, locking in $175 million of fully‑collateralized retrocession protection against North American peak perils. The issuance was priced below the original guidance, with the...
Fed's “Open Market” Is Actually Managed, Not Open
why is it called the federal open market committee when said market is very clearly managed and a closed system
5‑Year Treasuries Poised to Benefit From AI Disruption
5-year UST becoming the primary beneficiary of AI-driven disruption. Market pricing a 'lower for longer' rate environment, richening the belly. 2s5s10s 'fly https://t.co/7Rs11vfQp5
CHY: Well-Supported 10% Dividend Yield
Calamos Convertible & High Income Fund (CHY) trades near fair value while delivering a roughly 10 % distribution yield. Earnings consistently exceed the cash paid out, supporting NAV growth despite negative net investment income. The fund’s portfolio—about 69 % convertibles and 23 %...
Waller's March Cut Unlikely; FOMC Odds Near Zero
March cut may be a coin flip for Waller based on Feb payrolls, but it's not for the FOMC. Cut odds close to zero
Rising-Liquidity-and-PDs-Open-Door-to-Secondary-SRT-Plays
Rising market liquidity and higher probability‑of‑default (PD) levels are unlocking new opportunities in the secondary market for Significant Risk Transfer (SRT) instruments. Early stress signals in loan portfolios have prompted investors to shift capital toward buying and selling existing SRT...
T‑Bills Yield Over 3%—Skip Low‑Rate Savings
The national average savings account interest is 0.39%. Yet T-bills are paying ~3.6% and no state/local taxes. Can buy them from TreasuryDirect or your broker. Or Treasury ETF (e.g $VBIL) or Treasury MMF (e.g $VUSXX) pay ~3.64%. Don't let your savings earn pennies.
Japanese Life Insurers Face $86B Bond Losses
⚠️WHAT IS HAPPENING IN JAPAN? The 4 largest Japanese life insurers, Nippon Life, Dai-ichi Life, Sumitomo Life, and Meiji Yasuda, had a combined ¥13.2 trillion ($86 billion) in unrealized losses on government bonds at the end of 2025. Losses have risen over...
In the $3 Trillion Private Credit Market, the ‘Shadow Default’ Rate Is Increasing as More Money Chases Lower-Quality Deals
Lincoln International’s Private Market Index shows the $3 trillion private‑credit sector is growing in size but slipping in quality. Enterprise value rose 1.9% while EBITDA growth slowed and the “shadow default” rate more than doubled to 6.4% over the past year....
Economists Hide Real Risks of U.S. Bond Dumping
Everyone's worried about foreign countries dumping U.S. bonds, but here's what mainstream economists won't tell you about government finances. The link to the complete presentation is in the comments.
Weaker Dollar Spurs Record Foreign Inflows
1. Chart in original post shows the weaker USD (DXY) gets, the more flows will move into USD assets...& DXY had biggest drop in 52 yrs in 1H25👇 2. So as long as DXY keeps falling 10-15%/yr, foreign** inflows will grow **37%...
Vedanta Resources Mobilises $350 Million in Fresh Borrowing
Vedanta Resources secured a $350 million, 3.5‑year revolving credit facility from a consortium of six banks, including First Abu Dhabi Bank, Mashreq, Standard Chartered, Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan. The loan, priced at SOFR + 435 bps, will refinance existing maturities, fund interest payments and...
New Econ on Top for the Week, Curve Steeper Friday on Tariffs (E251)
DoubleLine strategists Ryan Kimmel and Mark Kimbrough highlighted a sector rotation this week, with communications services, financials and industrials gaining while traditional “old economy” sectors such as utilities and real estate fell. In fixed income, investment‑grade yields edged higher, but...
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Profits Decline in 2025
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reported a sharp decline in 2025 net earnings, falling roughly 12% year‑over‑year. The drop coincides with an 8% contraction in bank holdings of agency residential mortgage‑backed securities in Q4 and a reduced share of correspondent...
Rep. Hill Unimpressed by Trump’s GSE ‘IPO’ Plan
Representative Hill voiced strong skepticism toward President Trump’s proposal to launch an initial public offering of the government‑sponsored enterprises, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. He warned that a rushed IPO could destabilize the secondary mortgage market and raise borrowing costs...
J.P. Morgan Securities Fined $140,000 by FINRA
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC agreed to pay a $140,000 fine after FINRA found the firm violated MSRB Rule G‑32 and Rule G‑27. The violations involved inaccurate or incomplete Form G‑32 filings for 718 municipal bond offerings and late submission of 26 offering documents...
Prime Mortgages Secure a $321.2 Million RMBS From Goldman
Goldman Sachs has launched the GS Mortgage‑Backed Securities Trust 2026‑PJ2, a $321.2 million residential mortgage‑backed security backed by a pool of 255 first‑lien, fixed‑rate prime mortgages. The structure features a senior‑subordinate, shifting‑interest hierarchy with class A AAA‑rated notes and several lower‑rated tranches,...
Louisiana Commission Approves $400M GOs
Louisiana’s State Bond Commission authorized up to $400 million in general‑obligation bonds, to be sold by competitive bid on April 16. The issuance will raise about $383.7 million, with roughly 67 % earmarked for state‑government capital projects, 26 % for local governments and the remainder...
YYY: The Income Illusion or the Ultimate Credit Barometer?
The episode dissects YYY, an ETF that offers exposure to a rules‑based basket of high‑income closed‑end funds (CEFs) via a fund‑of‑funds structure. It highlights the layered risks of credit exposure, embedded leverage, and premium/discount dynamics, noting that performance is highly...
Tariff Slapdown: What the Markets Say
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, sending U.S. equities up about 0.7% and lifting the 10‑year Treasury yield back to roughly 4.10%. The decision removes a source of tariff‑derived revenue, reviving fiscal‑deficit concerns and creating upside...
Yield Curve Inverted 43 Months, Recession Still Unseen
The yield curve inverted 43 mos ago ... still no recession Nearly everyone told us a recession was coming. If you didn't, you were mocked and told it was Quad Four People say the NFC winning the Super Bowl being good for...
Fade the Belly Below -90; Auctions May Reverse
Both short and long term, this is a good level to fade the belly with the curve-wide 'fly (2s5s30s) back below -90. Mid-curve auctions next week could trigger a reversal https://t.co/q33LIbWZ5V
ESMA Publishes List of Supplementary Deferrals for Sovereign Bonds
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) and most EU national competent authorities have released a list of supplementary deferrals that extend the MiFIR transparency regime for sovereign bonds. The new rule permits the omission of volume publication for medium‑size...
Fed Minutes Reveal Mixed Inflation, AI Boosts Productivity
In this week's #OnInvesting, @LizAnnSonders and I talk about Fed minutes, mixed signals on inflation & unemployment, and weakness in the survey data. Liz Ann & @KevRGordon discuss the latest GDP report and the impact of tariffs, AI-driven investment and...
IEEPA Threat Raises Tariff Ceiling, Shifts Negotiation Dynamics
While 15% is close to what many countries ended up negotiating with Trump, he invoked IEEPA to threaten much higher rates, providing powerful leverage. If 15% is an effective ceiling (outside 301/232 actions), that changes the bargaining dynamic.
High-Yield Deals Are Testing the Market and Finding Demand
The high‑yield municipal bond market is heating up early in 2024, with $2.3 billion of speculative‑grade issuance recorded YTD, representing roughly 3.4% of total municipal issuance. Strong investor appetite and a tight primary‑market supply have driven several previously shelved deals back...
Yield Curve Ste
USTs for now reacting to the loss of tariff revenue, but it remains to be seen how this plays out. Curve steepening https://t.co/ZMjLP2vbxi
U.S. Debt Surge Demands Immediate Fiscal Brake
While the U.S. private sector repaired its balance sheet after 2008, the government did not. Gov’t debt to GDP ratio has climbed from 40% in 2007 to almost 110% today. THE U.S. NEEDS A DEBT BRAKE. UNSUSTAINABLE DEBT = FISCAL CRISIS. https://t.co/38NJYDyJgP