Today's Bonds Pulse
WBD bondholders approve covenant changes to clear path for Paramount merger
Warner Bros. Discovery obtained bondholder and lender consent to amend its fiscal covenants, removing a key obstacle to the $110.9 billion Paramount Skydance acquisition. The vote covered $16.6 billion of debt, with approval rates ranging from 79 % to 99 % across note classes. Paramount will pay a $2.50 cash bonus per $1,000 of debt, a cost it will assume entirely.
Macro Matters: Yield-Curve Scenarios with BNY’s Granet
In this episode, BNY Mellon CIO Jason Granet discusses the current and future shape of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, arguing that recent flattening is a temporary, cyclical retracement and that a steeper curve is likely to resume. He and Bloomberg Intelligence co‑hosts Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman examine the broader economic backdrop, Federal Reserve policy stance, and funding market dynamics that drive yield‑curve movements. Granet explains BNY’s analytical framework for assessing macro outlooks and how the firm sizes risk in its fixed‑income portfolios. The conversation highlights the interplay between monetary policy expectations and market liquidity in shaping yield‑curve scenarios.
Austin City Council OKs up to $575 Million of Water System Bonds
The Austin City Council approved up to $575 million in water and wastewater revenue‑refunding and improvement bonds. $450 million will refinance short‑term commercial paper into long‑term debt, while $75 million will refund callable Series 2015 A bonds and $50 million will fund capital projects at the...
S&P Upgrades Vancouver Airport Authority’s Rating to AA
S&P Global Ratings has raised the long‑term issuer credit and senior unsecured debt rating for the Vancouver Airport Authority from AA‑ to AA, with a stable outlook. The upgrade cites Vancouver International Airport’s robust market position, strategic capital‑investment plan, and...
ULM Properties' Student Housing Bonds Downgraded to B3 by Moody's
Moody's downgraded the University of Louisiana at Monroe student‑housing revenue bonds (Series 2019A) from B2 to B3, citing weak demand and an 85% occupancy rate. The debt‑service coverage ratio slipped to 0.98× as of December 2024, forcing draws on the debt‑service reserve....
With Active Security Selection, Airport Bonds Can Add Ballast as Geopolitics Rattle Markets
The airport municipal bond sector has demonstrated strong credit resilience, weathering crises such as 9/11, COVID‑19, and recent geopolitical turbulence. Federal relief via the CARES Act prevented mass downgrades, and General Aviation Revenue Bonds (GARBs) have maintained stable, investment‑grade ratings...
Gundlach Unlocked: Positioning for Inflation and a Weaker Dollar
In the inaugural Gundlach Unlocked webcast, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach warned that inflation is likely to stay above the Fed’s 2 % target, long‑term rates remain elevated despite recent cuts, and the U.S. dollar may enter a weaker phase. He outlined...
Investor Creates $300B Bond Fund, Redefines Fixed Income
This credit investor built the world’s largest bond fund, running nearly $300B, and reshaped fixed-income investing forever.
Coercive A&E Dominates $38B Software Maturity Market
The software maturity wall isn't a secret. Everyone has this chart. $38B in 2028. Mostly B and below. These aren't getting refinanced at par. They're getting extended. The only question is whether the A&E is consensual or coercive. And if the last...
UK Raises $8.4 Billion in First Green Bond Offering to Include Nuclear Energy as Eligible Use of Proceeds
The UK Debt Management Office completed a £6.25 billion (US$8.4 billion) Green Gilt offering maturing in 2037, the first new green gilt since 2021. The issuance brings total green gilt proceeds to £55.8 billion since the program’s launch and introduces a dedicated green...
OBDC's 25% NAV Discount Highlights Stale Marks
Blue Owl says the marks are real. Every sell-side analyst has a Buy. Yet $OBDC trades at a 25% discount to NAV. Finally had a chance to go through the portfolio. Found exactly what you'd expect: stale marks, understated software exposure,...
Don’t Take All the Credit
The article by WisdomTree analysts Jeff Weniger and Kevin Flanagan examines the state of U.S. credit markets amid lingering Middle‑East conflict concerns. It notes that investment‑grade and high‑yield spreads entered 2026 at the low end of historical ranges, briefly widened when the...
Olivier Blanchard on Eurobonds and Optimism for Europe's Future
Senior economist Olivier Blanchard will discuss Europe’s Eurobonds proposal at a virtual Peterson Institute event on April 14, 2026. He will examine how the bond framework could deepen fiscal integration and address rising defense expenditures. Blanchard also addresses broader challenges...
Tokio Marine Targets Mid-Guidance Pricing for $100m Kizuna Re Quake Cat Bond
Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire is targeting mid‑guidance pricing for its $100 million Kizuna Re III catastrophe bond, which provides earthquake reinsurance for the Tokio Marine group. The bond, issued through a Singapore‑based SPV, carries a three‑year rolling aggregate trigger and a...
UK 10‑Year Yields Top 4.7% Amid Oil Surge
UK borrowing costs are on the rise once more this morning. Per the Bloomberg chart below, yields on 10-year British government bonds are again above 4.70% as the war in the Middle East pushes Brent oil north of $95 once again. This...
Iran War Inflation Drives Terminal Rate to 3.37%
Iran war inflation continues to push up the terminal rate, now 3.37. This had been trading around 3% a month ago. No surprise UST front end getting shellacked with 2s 3.74 and 5s 3.86 https://t.co/8FiC830XW4
Bolivia Pledges to Meet Debt Payments as Swap Talks Move Ahead
Bolivia’s finance ministry announced it will honor $356 million in interest and principal on its 2028 dollar‑denominated bonds due in late March, following the recent coupon payment on its $850 million 2030 issue. The government also confirmed plans to swap roughly 67%...
BBB Spreads Tighten Since February, Still Well Below Past Peaks
BBB spreads are tighter now than where they were at the end of February. That might surprise a lot of people. Yes, spreads have widened some, but still nowhere near past levels. https://t.co/CvrdmgMyHp
Deutsche Bank Repeats Risky Credit Expansion Despite Past Missteps
When the financial crisis was heating up, geniuses at Deutsche Bank opted to buy more "highly rated" tranches of mortgage backed securities. With that in mind, when I see that DB says they are expanding their private credit exposure, I...
Another Contract Extension for Haven
Jacktel announced that Equinor has extended the Draupner offshore contract by six weeks, now ending on May 27, 2026. Upon completion, the Haven vessel will be redeployed to a new location for a 15‑month firm charter. The extension eliminates the...
US Long Bonds Have Halved Since 2020 Peak
U.S. long bonds $TLT are -51.7% over the last 6-years since peaking in 2020... https://t.co/5aCcOZfJZT
Global Doubt Threatens US Debt Sustainability
New NYT Opinion from me: The debt math of the United States only works if the rest of the world believes in it… but they’re starting not to. What does that mean for our future (and for all this debt)?...
Heavy Metal Equipment & Rentals: Credit Rating Report
On February 18, 2026, DBRS Limited confirmed Heavy Metal Equipment & Rentals' long‑term issuer and senior debt ratings at BB (high) with a Stable outlook. The rating reflects the company's robust cash‑flow generation from its equipment leasing portfolio and disciplined...
Dollar, VIX, and Yields Surge Past 20‑Day EMA
U.S. dollar $DXY, volatility $VIX and yields $TNX all rising in tandem > 20-day EMA... https://t.co/Dv49pGJIRC
German 10‑Year Yield Hits 2023 High Amid Inflation Fears
German 10-year yield climbs to highest since 2023 on inflation fears https://t.co/cvav2xEd32 via @highisland https://t.co/oIAhZehdiG
Morningstar DBRS Assigns Provisional Credit Ratings to Freddie Mac MSCR Trust MN13
Morningstar DBRS has issued provisional credit ratings for Freddie Mac’s Multifamily Structured Credit Risk Notes, Series 2026‑MN13. Class M‑1 receives a (P) BBB‑low rating while Class M‑2 is assigned (P) BB‑low, both with a Stable trend. The trust will fund...
2026 Private Credit Funds Mirror 200
A Private Credit Fund of Funds in 2026 seems to rather closely resemble a CDO-squared in early 2007.
Cliffwater Blames Sentiment Amid $33B Fund Redemptions
Another one. Cliffwater facing 7%+ redemptions on their $33B fund. Their response: “Sentiment is driving the selloff more than fundamentals.” That’s what they all say. Right before the gates go up.
BNP, Bradesco, Rabobank Named Among Raízen Top Creditors
Brazilian energy giant Raízen SA is seeking to restructure roughly $12.6 billion of debt out of court. Major European and Latin American banks—BNP Paribas, Banco Bradesco and Rabobank—have been identified as some of the company’s largest creditors. The restructuring plan is expected...
Rising Yields Signal Dollar Surge, Growth De‑Risking Continues
Bonds fall on growth fears and rise on recession fears - as a rule of thumb. But that’s under monetary dominance, not fiscal dominance. The new rulebook will look very much like February into the April tariff terror event where dollar and bonds...
Strait of Hormuz Strikes Fuel Fresh Fears over Bond Volatility
Bond market volatility spiked on Wednesday after three cargo vessels were struck near the Strait of Hormuz, pushing 10‑year U.S. Treasury yields from just above 4.14% to near 4.20%. The attacks revive concerns over oil‑supply disruptions, keeping Brent crude roughly...
Credit Crunch: Iran War, Software Rout and Credit a Safe Haven
In this episode of Credit Crunch, Mahesh Bhimalingam and guest Sarah Harrison discuss the impact of the Iran war and recent software sector volatility on global credit markets. They note that despite geopolitical tensions, credit spreads have remained relatively resilient,...
AI Giant Issues $25B Debt to Boost Stock
The AI poster child is issuing $25B in debt to buy back its own stock. Not to invest in AI. Not to acquire capabilities. To support the share price. That's the strategy. $CRM
Bond Market Predicts Near‑Zero Chance of Fed Cut
Bond Market: less than 1% probability of a Fed rate cut next week. Lloyd Christmas: so you're telling me there's a chance? https://t.co/29QHtCRSqe
How to Use Pre-Trade Data to Better Target Automation on Rule Builder
Bloomberg’s Rule Builder (RBLD) lets buy‑side firms convert high‑quality pre‑trade data into automated routing and alerting rules for fixed‑income orders. The tool ingests pricing, axes, dealer performance and other signals to prioritize dealers and reduce market impact. A Bloomberg study...
Expect 4.8
IF-THEN I am growing in confidence we’re gonna hit 4.8% in the US 10 year yield this year - with potential overshoot of crude to $300 and 10Y to 5.8% in a real panic (outlier event). That's too scary to digest/trade but...
Key Chart Sparks Discussion Among Factor Community
This could be an important chart. Discussing it today with members of the Factor community at https://t.co/gDeM5nTRIY $FGBL1! https://t.co/4KCxWZ88fE
Iran Targets US Markets; Conflict Strains Credit Channels
March 3, 2026 edition of FFTT: "Iran doesn't need to defeat the US military; just the UST market" March 11, 2026: "S&P has warned that the Middle East conflict is beginning to strain credit channels across multiple sectors" https://t.co/pnftNUeht5
New Investors Learn Bonds Drop in Turmoil
it's kind of neat, in all seriousness, to think that there is a whole new crop of investors that are growing up "knowing" that bonds sell off during uncertainty, volatility & turmoil... while many (not just the grey among us)...
Distressed 9x‑levered PIK Bond Faces Buyer Vacuum
Just curious, but when you have an 11% PIK, cov-lite bond on a corporate that’s 9x levered, who’s the logical buyer when there is forced selling?? Like can this go from 99 offered to 10 bid in a single trade…??
STRC’s 11.5% Yield Halves FIRE Retirement Timeline
We have discovered corporate bonds. If you take on more risk, you get a higher return wow
Fed Rate Path Repriced: Terminal Rate 3
Rather dramatic repricing of the Fed rate path vs 3 weeks ago before the Iran war. Cut cycle terminal rate now 3.28 with odds increasing that cut cycle is already over https://t.co/VYJRS9oWdI
Credit Market Unease Signals Risk‑off Pressure on Stocks
IG credit not happy in here (LQD/IEF) and that tends to be risk-off for equities. https://t.co/M9wDvl27Od
Rate Pressure Drives Treasury Yields Higher
Tplex: Rate complex under pressure UST 10 Yr Notes 4.20% +6.5bp's Dimes 112-00+ down 14/32's
Options‑implied Fed Hike Odds Surge to 23%
You get a different result from the CME tool (derived from a simple probability-weighted average) if you use options prices in the Atlanta Fed's tracker As of Friday, options prices implied a rate hike had risen to around 23%, from 8%...
Rate Cuts Surge, yet Long-Term Yields Climb
fun fact: the @bankofcanada has decreased rates 7 times since September 4th, 2024... both Canada 5-year and 10-year yields are higher since they started... #oops
Treasury Prices Plummet, Rates Surge, Bear
$TLT Monthly. Treasuries have gone down in virtual straight line (and rates up) since initial launch on Iran two Fridays ago. Long-term still strongly bearish. Risk of wipeout https://t.co/0SPsw7B88t
Oil Dip, Not Economy, Drives 10‑year Yield Drop
10-year yield pulled back from 4.21% to 4.11%. Not because the economy is fine. Because oil retreated and gave the bond market a breath. One headline away from 4.25%. https://t.co/62rQysSFLG
UST 2s Offer Yield Above SOFR Funding Rate
Generally, this has been good value for UST 2s. Chart of yield less funding rate (SOFR) https://t.co/jPLWuxmxaW
Today's Yield Predicts Bond Returns with 97% Accuracy
Want to know where bond returns are headed? Just look at today’s yield. Over the last 50 years, the correlation between starting yields and forward 7-year returns is 97%. Higher yields = higher future returns. Lower yields = lower future returns. Bond investing is just...
USTs Slide as Record IG Issuance Fuels Supply Pressure
Oddly USTs under pressure ahead of what is expected to be a soft Feb CPI (0.2 core) print. Supply seems to be part of it. Yesterday's 11-deal IG issuance ($66B) was the biggest single session on record.