Today's Bonds Pulse
US Treasury market steadies after Iran conflict sparks volatility
The US Treasury market has settled back to pre‑war calm following turbulence triggered by the Iran conflict, and expectations for bond‑market swings have fallen to near their lowest level of the year. Meanwhile, 30‑year Treasury yields slipped from a 19‑year high as optimism builds.
RBA Hikes Cash Rate to 4.1% as Middle East War Fuels Inflation, Tightening Bond Markets
On March 17, 2026, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Board voted 5‑4 to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, citing a resurgence of inflation driven by higher fuel prices from the Middle‑East conflict. Governor Michele Bullock warned that unchecked inflation could push the economy toward recession, while deputy governor Andrew Hauser described the inflation risk as “toxic.”
Germany's New Debt Fuels Handouts, Not Investment
Good Morning from Germany, where newly issued debt has so far not been used for investment, but rather to finance election giveaways & plug budget holes – once again proving the laws of political economy. Acc to Ifo, public borrowing...
Treasury Yields Test Support, Hinting at Recession Direction
US 30-Year Treasury Bond yields are testing key channel support levels—are we nearing an inflationary or deflationary recession? With the upcoming FED meeting and rising commodity prices, a breakdown here could dictate the market's next major move. Dive into the...
Treasury Yields Slip as Middle East Tensions and Oil Surge Loom Ahead of Fed Decision
On Tuesday, U.S. investors pushed the benchmark 10‑year Treasury yield down to 4.202% and the 30‑year to 4.848% as they weighed escalating Middle‑East tensions involving Iran and a surge in oil prices ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision....
Credit Markets Tighten as Qualtrics Loan Stalls
While credit markets are open to many companies, they're starting to close for others. Qualtrics, which makes online survey tools, had to ice a $5.3 billion loan and bond deal due to lack of investor appetite. https://t.co/DE0BfMnHYT
Bank of Canada to Announce Overnight Rate Decision on March 18, Impacting Canadian Bond Yields
On March 18, 2026, the Bank of Canada will release its scheduled overnight rate decision, a policy move that directly influences Canadian government and corporate bond yields. The announcement comes as the central bank projects inflation to stay near its...
Fed Should Hold Rates Steady In March
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to keep its target federal funds rate at 3.5‑3.75% during the March 17‑18 meeting. AIER’s Monetary Rules Report shows that several rule‑based frameworks, including the Taylor rule and nominal‑GDP rules, imply a rate...
SES Successfully Prices €650 Million of SPACE Hybrid Securities
SES Financing S.à r.l., a wholly‑owned subsidiary of satellite operator SES, priced a €650 million PNC5.25 Subordinated Perpetual with Automatic Conversion Events (SPACE) hybrid security on 24 March 2026. The issue, carrying a 7.375% coupon and callable at par from 2031, was five...
Morningstar DBRS Comments on the City of Calgary's Commercial Paper Program Limit Increase; Commercial Paper Credit Rating Unchanged at R-1...
Morningstar DBRS reports that Calgary has increased its commercial paper program limit to $500 million, up from $400 million, while maintaining an R‑1 (high) rating with a stable outlook. The city’s cash and investment portfolio stands at $7.1 billion, including $756.5 million of short‑term...
Stellar 20Y Auction Stops Through Amid Surge In Foreign Demand
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $13 bn of 20‑year notes at a 4.817% yield, stopping 0.7 bps through the issue price. Bid‑to‑cover climbed to 2.76, outpacing the six‑auction average. Foreign indirect demand surged to 69.2%, the highest since April 2025, while direct bidder participation...
Forecasts Keep Rising, Yet Critics Call Them Irresponsible
Every month someone publishes a higher default forecast. > Fitch: 5.8% actual > Morgan Stanley: 8% > UBS: 15% worst case Every month someone in the industry calls it irresponsible.
State Bank of India Mops up ₹6,051 Cr via 10-Year Basel III Compliant Tier 2 Bonds at 7.05%
State Bank of India raised ₹6,051 crore by issuing a 10‑year Basel III‑compliant Tier 2 bond at a 7.05% coupon. The issue carries a call option after five years and on each subsequent anniversary. The bonds received bids roughly twice the ₹5,000 crore target,...
RBI Fixes Redemption Price of ₹15,814 for SGB
India’s central bank, the RBI, announced a premature redemption price of ₹15,814 per unit for the 2019‑20 Series IV Sovereign Gold Bonds, payable on March 17. The price, derived from the three‑day average of gold’s closing rates, translates to a more than...
Brazil Steps Up Bond Market Intervention as Oil Upends Rates
Brazil's National Treasury announced an expanded bond market intervention after a sharp rise in oil prices lifted inflation expectations and pushed sovereign yields upward. The authority increased direct purchases and offered additional liquidity to stabilize benchmark rates and limit volatility....
Full Rate Cut Postponed Until March 2027.
"While markets previously anticipated a cut as early as this July and two more by next spring, the current trajectory has moved aggressively, with a full cut now not priced in until March 2027." -S&P Global Vörös
Kuwait Returns To The Global Debt Market
Kuwait re‑entered the international sovereign market in September 2024, issuing an $11.25 billion eurobond – its first external debt sale since 2017. The issuance was enabled by a new debt law approved in March 2025 that authorises up to KD30 billion (≈$97 billion)...
Clifford Capital Raises First Australian Dollar IABS at A$455m
Clifford Capital, a Singapore‑based infrastructure credit platform, completed its inaugural Australian‑dollar Infrastructure Asset‑Backed Securities (IABS) issuance, raising A$455 million across four tranches. The deal marks the firm’s first foray into the Australian market and represents the largest private placement of IABS...
Fed Faces Tension Over Near‑Term Rate Cut Projections
The Fed might prefer to say nothing this week. But the projections force them to sketch out a path. Two former Fed presidents told me they'd want to avoid projecting near-term cuts in the current situation. Whether sitting officials do...
Widening Credit Spreads Signal Imminent Bear Market
The bond market is getting twitchy. Over the past 20 years, when credit spreads blew out but the S&P 500 wasn't even beyond a pullback yet, it was 3-for-3 in bear markets. h/t @sentimentrader https://t.co/xiba9GU3z2
Rates Spark: The Impact Is No Longer Transitory
The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield is projected to climb into a 4.25‑4.5% band before easing back toward 4%, driven by higher nominal and real yields after the war’s shock. Even as the conflict winds down, inflation expectations remain structurally elevated,...
Bond Rally Masks Lack of True Risk Appetite
Bonds rallying while stocks bounce. $TLT up 0.8%. In a real recovery, bonds sell off as risk appetite returns. This looks like a flight to safety dressed up as a relief rally. $SPY https://t.co/azWo3xSslp
Fed's Inflation View to Steer Near‑term Rate Path
Despite the recent steepening of the back-end, hard to fade and set up for next week's auctions with FOMC tomorrow. Fed clarification on how they view the recent crude inflation will have a strong impact on the...
How Active Management Can Capture Yield In Today's Bond Environment
Late 2025 saw long‑term U.S. Treasury yields climb even as the Fed signaled easing. The divergence stems from stubborn inflation, heightened global bond issuance, and waning central‑bank demand. Active managers now recommend tilting toward intermediate‑term Treasuries, high‑quality corporates, and municipals...
Funds Buy UK Gilts, Betting Market Misreads BOE
UK funds snap up gilts in a bet that markets have the BOE all wrong https://t.co/FFHExPNhxC https://t.co/0e6cHNIwPe
Refinancing Wall: An Ever-Present Market Reality
Is there ever NOT a "refinancing wall"? Feel like I've been seeing charts like that for 20 years...
Bank of America Increases Hyperscaler Issuance Forecast to $175 Billion
Bank of America raised its 2026 forecast for investment‑grade debt sales to hyperscalers by 25%, now projecting $175 billion in total issuance. The bank still expects $65 billion of new hyperscaler bonds to be issued this year. The revision follows Amazon’s $54 billion...
Rate Hike Odds Surpass Cuts for First Time
The odds of a rate hike over the next three months is now higher than the odds of a cut. A month ago, no one would have believed this. https://t.co/a9K0cTXJS1
Record US Private Credit Defaults Drive Gold, Silver Rally
Rising U.S. private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, signaling credit stress & shadow banking risks. This erodes confidence in paper assets, investors flock to hard money with no counterparty risk. Bullish for gold & silver as safe-haven hedges. https://t.co/TcCYRkMkIZ
AI Credit Boom Brings New Risks for Bond Investors
AI-driven data‑center spending is flooding bond markets with unprecedented infrastructure debt, exemplified by the $27 billion Beignet Investor joint venture between Meta and Blue Owl. T. Rowe Price warns that many of these bonds are concentrated in a handful of hyperscaler tenants, creating...
Rising
The dream comes with a price Awesome to see the demand All ZHCs will need treasuries
Fed's Treasury Holdings Surge, Echoing Past Funding Crises
Preparation for liquidity crisis to minimize repo/money market volatility that are threatening credit spreads due to oil spike and growth contraction from Trump trapping US-Israel War on Iran. #HYOAS “The Fed now holds about $358B in Treasury bills. That’s higher than the...
One of BAM’s Fidus Re Financial Guarantee ILS Gets Ratings Revised to Positive by KBRA
Build America Mutual Assurance Company (BAM) saw Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) upgrade the outlook on its Fidus Re Series 2022-1 financial guarantee ILS to Positive, while reaffirming AA+ on the 2021-1 series and AA on the 2022-1 and 2025-1...
Sell‑side Fades War‑Inflation Trade, Energy Seen as Growth Killer
Sell-side is fading the war-inflation trade in the front end. The consensus? High energy prices are a growth killer, not a long-term inflation driver. For now, the tape is happy to ignore them.
Oil Rebound, Flattening Curve Boost Equities; Watch $94 Oil
Oil shock is reversing (Strait clearing narrative), curve flattening continues (rate hikes priced in), credit widening (HY spread breakout), and rent collapse vindicates office REIT pressure. De-escalation moves favor equities; watch if $94 oil holds or bounces.
Treasury Yields May Still Be Headed Higher
Treasury yields slipped briefly on Monday but technical analysis suggests the decline is temporary. 5‑year yields, which fell to their lowest since October 2024, are still below the high reached in January and remain in a large‑degree B‑wave correction that historically...
Private Credit Crisis Erases $265B Market Value
Private credit default rate just hit 5.8%. Apollo down 41%. Blackstone down 46%. Blue Owl down 66% from peak. $265 billion in market cap erased. This is not a headline. It's a crisis. https://t.co/Am5fwWlQPj
State Farm Sets up Another Merna Re Structure in Bermuda, Likely for Future Cat Bonds
State Farm has registered a new Bermuda special‑purpose insurer, Merna Re Enterprise II Ltd., likely to support upcoming catastrophe‑bond issuances. The move follows a decade‑long strategy of using Merna Re entities, which have funded $3 billion of cat‑bond protection and a...
Markets Stay Calm on 5-Year Inflation Outlook
Market relatively sanguine about longer term inflation. 5 year, 5 year forward inflation swap showing no angst despite crude elevating front short-term swaps https://t.co/b8Po5HE6EV
Another Oklahoma Winter Storm-Related Bond Issue Challenged
In 2022 Oklahoma issued $2.89 billion of utility bonds to recover costs from Winter Storm Uri, with $1.35 billion allocated to Oklahoma Natural Gas. Republican lawmakers filed a state Supreme Court brief alleging the Oklahoma Corporation Commission failed required audits of those...
3 Top-Ranked Municipal Bond Funds to Help Build Steady Income
Municipal bond mutual funds remain a top choice for risk‑averse investors seeking tax‑free income, trailing only government securities in safety. Zacks highlights three funds—Vanguard Intermediate‑Term Tax‑Exempt (VWITX), Eaton Vance Total Return Bond (EBABX), and American High‑Income Municipal Bond (AMHIX)—each holding...
10-Year Yield Signals Bullish Trade Amid Accelerating Inflation
JBG 10yr Yield back to signaling Bullish TRADE and TREND @Hedgeye with #Quad3 Inflation Accelerating https://t.co/qkWdn2Fxoe
SBS Misses Debt Deadline, In Creditor Standstill After Default
Spanish Broadcasting System (SBS) missed its March 1 deadline on $310 million senior secured notes and entered a 30‑day creditor standstill. Majority holders of the 9.750 % notes have agreed to forbear while negotiations explore new financing, term extensions or restructuring. SBS reported...
Oil Shock Drives French Bond Yields to 2011 High
The oil-price shock is taking a bigger toll on European markets, particularly in fixed income, making the ECB's meeting this week arguably more interesting than the Fed's. Yields on French 10-year bonds are back up to the highest since 2011....
Covered Bond Markets at a Glance: Austria
Morningstar DBRS released its latest "Covered Bond Markets at a Glance" report focusing on Austria. The report highlights a €110 billion outstanding covered‑bond portfolio, placing Austria among the world’s top ten markets. Mortgage‑backed programmes dominate, with residential loans outpacing commercial, while...
Senegal’s Crisis: Why Debt Restructuring May Be the Least Bad Option
Senegal’s public debt has surged to roughly 132% of GDP, with annual servicing costs of about $9.1 billion. Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko has dismissed debt restructuring, opting instead to close 19 government agencies to save roughly $98 million over three years. The...
CITADEL FINANCE LLC Section 3(c)(7) Important Notice
Citadel Finance LLC issued $1 billion of 5.9% senior notes due 2030, closing February 10, 2025, underwritten by Goldman Sachs with BNY Mellon as paying agent. The Depository Trust Company issued a Section 3(c)(7) notice requiring all purchases and transfers to occur...
New Participant in the Netting System of the Government Securities Division of FICC: KeyBank National Association – GSD #9405
KeyBank National Association has been added as a new participant (ID 9405) in the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation’s Government Securities Division netting system, effective March 19, 2026. The change applies to Netting (Buy/Sell), Repo Netting, and the Government Central Fund...
Central Banks Pause Rates Amid Oil, Middle East Risks
Central banks worldwide hold rates steady this week as they watch oil prices and Middle East tensions. The Fed's Powell leads his second-to-last FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/d9xKHu64X9
China’s 30-Year Yields Set for Highest Close Since 2024 on Oil
China’s 30‑year government bond yields climbed to 2.4%, the highest closing level since September 2024, as oil prices surged amid the Iran‑Israel conflict. The 10‑year benchmark also edged higher to 1.83%, reflecting broader inflation concerns. Futures on the 30‑year bond fell...
IT'S FINALLY TIME TO LEAN INTO CORPORATE CREDIT
Kevin Muir, known as “the macro tourist,” announced a sizable short position against corporate credit spreads, buying distressed pink‑ticket bonds as a hedge. He argues that rising interest rates, slowing global growth, and tightening credit conditions will force high‑yield spreads...