Today's Bonds Pulse
Bond Yields Surge to 19-Year High, Sparking Stock Market Concerns
The 30‑year Treasury yield climbed to a 19‑year peak while the 10‑year rose from 4.03% to 4.69% before easing to about 4.5%. Goldman Sachs research notes that half‑percentage‑point spikes in yields typically turn short‑term S&P 500 returns negative, heightening correction risk. Inflation is running at 3.8% year‑over‑year, fueling the sell‑off.
The Dollar Dilemma for Public Sector Bond Issuers
The episode examines how recent attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure are pushing oil and gas prices higher and the ripple effects on emerging market (EM) sovereign bonds, noting modest yield increases but overall resilience due to stronger fiscal positions than in 2022. It also explores the challenges public‑sector issuers, especially supranational and agency (SSA) borrowers, face in accessing the dollar bond market amid volatile swap spreads and pricing uncertainty, contrasting this with more active euro issuance. Experts George Collard and Addison Gong explain that while EM issuers remain cautiously optimistic, SSA issuers are holding back on dollar deals until spreads stabilize, highlighting the broader impact of global market volatility on funding strategies.
Credit Market Risks: What the Euro Credit Team Is Watching Now
Rik den Hartog, Co‑Head of Euro Credit at Loomis Sayles, outlined the team’s current focus on three credit market stressors: tightening supply dynamics, rising M&A‑driven leverage, and heightened rate volatility. He noted that constrained issuance is compressing liquidity, while deal‑making...
How Active ETFs Brought Muni Bonds Investing to Life
Active municipal‑bond ETFs have transformed a traditionally static fixed‑income segment by pairing tax‑exempt muni exposure with the liquidity and transparency of the ETF structure. The 2019 ETF rule spurred a wave of product innovation, allowing active managers to dynamically adjust...
Allspring's Venditti on Why Munis Are a Safe Haven Against War Concerns Now
In this episode, Chuck Jaffe talks with Nick Vendetti, senior portfolio manager at Allspring, about why municipal bonds are currently viewed as a safe‑haven asset amid heightened war‑related inflation risks. Vendetti explains that inflation is the primary enemy of income‑generating...
Credit Shifting Back in Buyside Focus as Federal Stimulus Dries Up
Municipal bond investors enjoyed credit stability from roughly $4.6 trillion of pandemic stimulus, but the federal windfall is ending, reviving credit concerns. Panelists at the Bond Dealers of America conference warned that tighter spreads will likely widen as states confront fiscal...
Something Of Note: Nexstar Bond Offering Surpasses $5 Billion
Nexstar Media Group announced a senior secured note offering exceeding $5 billion, aimed at financing its $6.2 billion acquisition of the former Gannett assets. The move follows Nexstar’s effective takeover of TEGNA and the conversion of TEGNA shares into Nexstar’s “NXST” ticker....
10‑Year Yield Jumps
10y yield spikes as odd of rate hike before end of the year increases by 50% … Jerome Powell was right all along 😂
Bond Yields Surge Globally, Curve Bears Flattening
Global bond yields continue to climb: the UK 10-year has touched 5%, while the German Bund has crossed 3% and the US stands at 4.36%. Compounding the warning signs for the global economy, this comes amid an ongoing bear flattening...
Dollar Mixed, Equities Down, Bond Yields Higher, and Mood Remains Fearful
The U.S. dollar posted mixed moves, gaining against the yen and won while slipping versus the euro, sterling and Canadian dollar. U.S. Treasury yields rose five basis points, outpacing modest increases in Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Germany, while all four...
California School District Says Taxpayers Win with Shorter Bond Terms
San Juan Unified School District has saved roughly $636 million in interest by issuing general‑obligation bonds with an average maturity of 17.23 years, far shorter than the typical 30‑year term used by most districts. The shorter‑term structure lowered the repayment ratio from...
Borrowing Costs Soar to Post-Financial Crisis High in Blow to Reeves
UK government borrowing costs have surged, with the ten‑year gilt yield topping 4.9%, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. The rise inflates debt‑service obligations, pushing projected interest payments toward £110 billion this year and eroding the fiscal headroom Labour...
Conditions for Call Satisfied
Småkraft AS announced that it has exercised the call option on its SMAKR02 ESG bond series and will redeem all outstanding notes. The redemption follows a refinancing under an amended and restated senior secured facilities agreement. All contractual conditions for...
ACP: Deteriorating Credit Market Decreases Appeal (Rating Downgrade)
The abrdn Income Credit Strategies Fund (ACP) has been downgraded to a Sell as its net asset value continues to erode in a deteriorating credit market. The fund’s 17.5% dividend yield is unsustainable, with more than half of distributions funded...
SalMar - Update of Issuer Credit Rating From Nordic Credit Rating
Nordic Credit Rating upgraded Norway‑based salmon farmer SalMar ASA to a BBB long‑term issuer rating with a stable outlook on 20 March 2026. The agency highlighted the company's strong profitability and moderate financial leverage as key drivers. The rating places SalMar in...
Global Rates: Global DM Swap Spread Outlook
In this episode of At Any Rate, JP Morgan’s global rate strategy team breaks down recent dynamics in developed‑market (DM) swap spreads, highlighting how central‑bank policy expectations and technical factors drive the curves across the US, Germany, the UK, Japan and...
One Alliance North America Targets Debut $100m One Shield Re Catastrophe Bond
One Alliance North America Insurance Company is launching its first catastrophe bond through Bermuda‑based One Shield Re Ltd., targeting at least $100 million of multi‑peril reinsurance. The Series 2026‑1 Class A tranche will provide three‑year coverage for named storms across six states and...
Rates Likely Hike Unless Growth Collapses, Says Sell‑Side
And the sell side rolls in. April is punchy; I doubt they will see anything in the March HICP that scares them relative to the baseline. But the message is clear. Unless growth collapses they will hike, I think justifying...
TNX Breaks Triangle, Bullish Spike Ahead
$TNX Monthly. Head-fake lower last month. Surge higher this month. At apex of multi-year triangle. This is ideal bullish setup for rates on 10-Year to explode higher https://t.co/aCdWZY5Kd9
FTSE 100 Live: Gilt Yields Soar, Bank of England Rate Hike Fears Grow, Wetherspoon Shares Tumble
UK gilt yields surged to just under 5%, the highest level since 2008, as markets price in expectations of Bank of England rate hikes. Unilever entered talks to sell its foods business to McCormick, while discount retailer The Works saw...
Bessent's No‑Term Debt Plan: Mixed Results So Far
So how has the plan by @SecScottBessent to not term out the debt and keep rolling bills worked out?
Rising 10y10y Yield Shows Cost of Fiscal Recklessness
The 10y10y forward Treasury yield (red) is rising towards its historical highs. If only we'd brought our deficit under control after COVID, then we'd now have more gas in the tank for emergency spending. But we didn't. Reckless fiscal policy...
SOFR Path Change Relative to 2/27
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Market Probability Tracker released a revised three‑month average SOFR outlook covering June 2026 through December 2028. The new projection lifts the expected rate path relative to the February 27 forecast, placing the current target range at 350‑375 basis points....
Foreign Investors' Treasury Buying Slows to 4Q19 Low
"Foreign investors added $28bn of Treasuries in 4Q25, the softest quarterly pace of demand since 4Q19" --JPM
Rising 10‑Year
Last year, a 4.50%-4.60% on the 10-year yield got the White House To Blink, with stocks falling. Now higher oil prices 🧙♂️🪄
10-Year TIPS Reopening Gets Real Yield of 1.896%
The Treasury announced a reopening of the 10‑year TIPS auction, delivering a real yield of 1.896%. The yield jumped noticeably, signaling heightened market sensitivity ahead of the weekend. Investors appeared reluctant to hold positions, prompting some traders to sit out...
10-Year Yield Climbs Steadily, Market Bets Tighter Longer
10Y yield is still ripping higher in a straight line from that brief 3 handle tease. Market says, tighter for longer. $TNX $IEF https://t.co/dbZrSwrwwr
FOMC Hawkishness Index Surges After Powell’s Press Conference
It'll be interesting to see how this looks over the next week, as we get more post-FOMC Fedspeak. But my proprietary measure of FOMC hawkishness climbed even further after Powell's press conference. https://t.co/lNilk5T2yz
Fitch Upgrades Tenet’s Credit Rating
Fitch Ratings upgraded Tenet Healthcare’s credit rating to BB from BB‑, citing a stronger competitive position and improved liquidity. The for‑profit system posted double‑digit revenue growth in its high‑margin ambulatory surgery segment and sold 14 hospitals, funding a $2.1 billion debt...
10-Year Yield Hovers at 4.3%, Poised for Breakout
The 10-year couldn't close above 4.3% yesterday, but is trying again this morning. Lot of whipsaws (in both directions) with this chart, but this would sure look like a breakout https://t.co/17G6Y8TtLa
Local Gilt Issues Can Lift Global Yields
Price is set on the margin. One underappreciated problem n today's global fixed income markets is that the biggest participants (bank, insco, pension) are indifferent among G10 sovereigns. Local problems relatively small market like UK Gilts can then force global...
Corporate Credit Spreads Edge Wider as Iran War Fuels Inflation Pressure
Corporate bond yields rose Tuesday as credit spreads showed early signs of widening amid the Iran war. The Morningstar US Corporate Bond Index spread, which had narrowed to 0.83 percentage points before the conflict, is now inching higher, signaling renewed...
Canada 5‑Year Yields Surge, Hinting at Rate Hikes
Canada 5-year year yields... looking poised to move higher as they break to 14+ month highs... rate hikes on the horizon to battle inflationary pressures? https://t.co/3jtEuhVfkZ
Europe/UK Rate Hike Likely: 12% April Odds
Europe/UK back at it, forcing their rate hikes on us. April hike odds 12%... more than just noise
Markets Price Fed Rate Hike, No Cuts Expected
For for first time this cycle, a small rate increase by the Fed is now priced in by year end, 12%. And no rate cuts anymore
UK Yield Peaks 2008 High Amid Rising Oil Prices
Key UK yield hits the highest level since 2008 as oil prices climb https://t.co/pWaz7E1WOL https://t.co/boVD8nEW6E
Reeves, Miliband, Bell Call For
Reeves, Miliband and Bell will look at Gilts and go ... we need to spend more and raise taxes.
April ECB Rate Hike Possible if Data Warrants
Makhlouf says an April ECB hike is possible if data signal there’s a need https://t.co/zEOl2Ko48A via @flacqua @jenniduggan @livfletcher_ https://t.co/IHW9dxYRHQ
Canada 5‑Year Yield Surges to 14‑Month High
it's 6am. i'm drinking black coffee. a @tradingview alert just buzzed in my pocket and appeared on my screen to tell me the Canada 5-year yield just broke out to 14-month highs > ~3.1%... 🧐 cool. https://t.co/IHj3aa1dV0
UK 10‑Year Gilt Near 2022 High as Yields Rise
At the back of the yield curve, yields are moving higher across the board, and the UK 10-year GILT yield is testing the cycle highs from 2022. UK and US yields generally move in similar fashion, so this is something...
S&P Threatens Downgrade Unless Funds Cap Redemptions
S&P to Cliffwater: if you keep honoring redemptions above 5%, we might downgrade you. So the choice is: gate your investors and keep your rating, or pay your investors and lose it. The product design is now working against itself.
High‑Yield Spreads Break Out of Historic Range
The chart below shows that high yield spreads appear to have broken out of its longstanding range. https://t.co/XDtyd2lmpz
Rate‑cut Hopes Fade as Credit Spreads Widen Dramatically
The heatmap below shows that expectations of further rate cuts have all but vanished. Meanwhile, stress in the credit markets continues to mount with both investment grade and high yield spreads making new wides, and the private credit sensitive equities...
Market Signals No Near-Term Rate Cuts, Slightly Higher Policy Outlook
Also in today's newsletter. Per the WIRP function on the terminal, not only are imminent rate cuts off the table, the market-implied policy path is actually *slightly* higher over the rest of the year now. https://t.co/FRganNTPH0
Markets Flip: From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes
2 days ago, markets were still pricing in a (diminishing) bias towards imminent rate cuts. Now we are pricing in a (small) bias towards imminent rate hikes. Folks were not paying enough attention to the rise in the Fed's own inflation...
Late‑
10y UST yields (blue, RS) v. USDCNY (red, LS), since Russia invaded UKR in Feb-22. Something changed in late 2025 (stronger CNY v. USD and higher 10y UST yield, instead of lower.) https://t.co/hW48oZdc2B
US Debt Surges to $39T, Bond Market Turns Edgy
Bond Market Gets Edgy as US Treasury Debt Hits $39 Trillion, Spiking by $2 Trillion in 7.5 Months and Not Slowing Down. But debt doesn’t exist in a vacuum: The Debt-to-GDP and Deficit-to-GDP ratios provide (ugly) context https://t.co/0XZ6rkEoI5 https://t.co/ZYPLRQgVkY
Wave Digital to Launch First Bitcoin‑Collateralized Rated Bond
"Wave digital is going to issue the first rated bond COLLATERALIZED by Bitcoin," says @EmanAbio https://t.co/oU2EeDw6Mf
10‑Year Treasury Real Yield Stalls at 1.89%
1.89 10 year tips real yield. Meh. Not much return yet in the benchmark asset on earth. Less than 3 months ago.
June ECB Rate Hike More Likely than April
ECB sources suggesting they could hike in April, but if it goes that far I think June is more likely. ECB meeting: 30 April Consumer Expectations Survey (27 March, too early) Survey of Professional Forecasters (4 May, but they’ll get hints) Corporate Telephone...
New
I mean, why would they signal this when they just got ahead of the curve with their new forecasts ... I have two hikes in my fct (in June/July), but judging by the overall tone today and new forecasts I...