Today's Bonds Pulse
Bond Yields Surge to 19-Year High, Sparking Stock Market Concerns
The 30‑year Treasury yield climbed to a 19‑year peak while the 10‑year rose from 4.03% to 4.69% before easing to about 4.5%. Goldman Sachs research notes that half‑percentage‑point spikes in yields typically turn short‑term S&P 500 returns negative, heightening correction risk. Inflation is running at 3.8% year‑over‑year, fueling the sell‑off.
Illinois Will Return to Market with a $1.4 Billion GO Deal
Illinois is set to re‑enter the municipal bond market next week with a $1.4 billion general‑obligation issuance. The proceeds will fund accelerated pension‑benefit payments, the Rebuild Illinois capital program, IT upgrades and other infrastructure projects. The deal includes a $200 million taxable series, a $75 million tax‑exempt series, and a $1.125 billion tax‑exempt series maturing through 2051. Illinois’ credit ratings have improved, with Moody’s assigning A2 and Fitch and S&P maintaining A‑ ratings, reflecting a growing budget‑stabilization fund and modest pension‑funding gains.
Monetary Policy Decisions
The European Central Bank kept its three key policy rates unchanged on 19 March 2026, maintaining the deposit facility at 2.00 %, the main refinancing rate at 2.15 % and the marginal lending facility at 2.40 %. It highlighted that inflation is hovering around the...
Senior Deals Earn Fees, Then Face Distressed Capital
The 2024 SteerCo playbook: Go super-senior, get fees, get paid. The 2026 SteerCo playbook: Go super-senior, get fees, get stuck with new money that’s now also distressed.
Allstate’s Pre-Tax Cat Loss for Current Aggregate Year Reaches $3.072bn After February
Allstate reported a $140 million pre‑tax catastrophe loss for February 2026, raising its current aggregate risk‑period losses to $3.072 billion. Year‑to‑date pre‑tax losses now total $315 million, with after‑tax figures at $249 million. Severe convective storms in March could add low‑to‑mid‑single‑digit billions in insured...
Nashville to Price About $502 Million in Midst of Growth
The Metropolitan Government of Nashville and Davidson County is set to price about $502 million of general‑obligation refunding bonds on March 19, led by BofA Securities and Morgan Stanley. The Series 2026D issue carries AA‑plus ratings from S&P and KBRA and yields ranging...
US 2‑yr Yield Surges, Inflation Breakevens Spike Post‑War
The US 10yr yield is up about 35 bp since the start of the war and the 2yr yield is up about 43 bp. The 2yr break even is up 57 bp to 3.38% and the 10yr breakeven is...
Polymarket Odds Mirror 2‑year Yield on 2026 Rate Cut
The Polymarket odds of "no rate cut in 2026" continue to generally track the 2-year yield https://t.co/VY0P2eN1XO
Standard Bank Co-Arranges Bayport Mozambique’s Award-Winning Bond
Bayport Financial Services Mozambique issued a MZN 600 million dual‑tranche bond in October 2025, earning the Best Local Currency Bond – Financial Institutions award from Global Banking & Markets. Standard Bank acted as co‑arranger and bookrunner, guiding the structure and securing regulatory approvals....
2‑Year Yield Jump Signals Imminent Fed Rate Hike
The 2 year U.S. Treasury yield has risen 50 basis points in less than three weeks. It now suggests one Fed HIKE may be coming.
Investors Flock to Long‑term US Treasuries Today
It's funny that long term US treasuries is where people are putting their money today. They make more folks.
Fed Holds Rates Steady as 10‑yr Treasury Yield Jumps to 4.256%
The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate in the 3.50%-3.75% band on March 18, 2026, prompting the 10‑year Treasury yield to climb 5.5 basis points to 4.256% and the 2‑year to 3.741%. The move sparked a broad‑based rise in yields...
UK’s Repeated Crises Undermine Global Economic Stability
Why is the UK always the source of curve instability? Brexit, Truss and now this
UK Yields Surge, Highlighting Limited Fiscal Headroom
UK 2 year yield + 23bps UK 5 year yield +22bps UK 10 year yield +13bps About that fiscal headroom 🤔
Amundi Lists Global Ex-US Government Bond ETF on London Stock Exchange
Amundi has listed its Global ex‑US Government Bond UCITS ETF (ticker GXUS) on the London Stock Exchange. The physical, sampling‑based ETF tracks the Bloomberg Global Treasury Large Markets DM ex US Index, providing exposure to investment‑grade sovereign debt from developed...
Safe Until Crisis: What 300 Years of Wars Reveal About Government Debt Safety
A new VoxEU column by Jiang, Lustig, Van Nieuwerburgh and Xiaolan examines three centuries of U.S. and U.K. war and pandemic episodes. Their analysis shows that sovereign bonds, traditionally viewed as safe havens, have repeatedly suffered large real‑term losses during...
UOB Prices Rmb5bn Panda Bond; DB and BNP Paribas Also Issue Bonds in March
Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) priced a three‑year panda bond worth RMB 5 billion at a 1.83% yield on March 18, marking a notable entry into China’s offshore yuan market. In the same month, Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas each issued panda bonds exceeding RMB 5 billion,...
The Five Year Inflation Breakeven at 2.66%
The five‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven inflation rate has climbed to 2.66%, marking a 0.26‑percentage‑point increase since the onset of the war. The rise is captured alongside the DKW model’s inflation expectations, both plotted against the Treasury spread. A parallel chart links...
HSBC Reopens Hong Kong AT1 Market with $2.5 Bn Bond Sale
HSBC Holdings sold $2.5 bn of Additional Tier‑1 (AT1) bonds in Hong Kong, the first major‑currency AT1 issuance since the Iran‑related market freeze. The two perpetual tranches were priced at 6.75% and 7% yields, reflecting strong investor appetite and a half‑percentage‑point...
Market Intelligence Brief: The Pivot to Hikes? Reassessing the June Fed Outlook
Market pricing now shows a 19.2% chance of a Fed rate hike by June, overtaking the 17.3% probability of a cut. The shift stems from a perfect storm of cost‑push inflation and heightened geopolitical risk, notably the U.S.–Iran conflict driving...
Moody's Downgrades the Met and The New School
Moody's downgraded New York's Metropolitan Opera Association to Caa1 from B3, pushing it deeper into junk territory, and lowered The New School's rating to Baa1 from A3. The Met faces a $120 million endowment draw, $178 million debt, and liquidity constraints with...
Munis Little Changed, USTs See Losses After Fed Holds Rates
Municipal bonds were largely unchanged Wednesday while U.S. Treasuries slipped after the Federal Reserve left rates steady. The Investment Company Institute reported $782 million of weekly inflows into municipal bond funds, following $1.452 billion the week prior, and ETFs attracted $903 million. Raymond James...
PREPA Parties Discuss Path Forward
U.S. District Judge Laura Taylor Swain urged the Puerto Rico Oversight Board to consider a contingent vehicle instrument (CVI) in its PREPA plan of adjustment as parties grapple with the size of bondholders' secured claim. The board has offered bondholders...
Fed Holds Rates, Forecasts First Cut Only in 2026
JUST IN: The Fed leaves rates unchanged (3.5 to 3.75%). **The projection is for 1 rate cut in 2026** 11 Fed leaders voted for this Only 1 dissent (Trump official Stephen Miran) The statement says: "The implications of developments in the Middle East...
ADG 3/18: Lost Horizon
Crypto exchange Kraken has put its planned IPO on hold, citing weak market conditions, after dismissing its CFO earlier this year. Meanwhile, a consortium of banks led by JPMorgan launched an $18 billion debt package to finance Electronic Arts’ $55 billion leveraged...
Iran War Isn't Spooking Muni Buyers yet, but They're Keeping Eye on Transportation Credits
Municipal bond investors remain unfazed by the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict, viewing munis as a domestic safe‑haven despite rising oil prices and Treasury yields. New‑issue issuance dipped below $10 billion this week, yet demand stayed strong, with several deals oversubscribed. Transportation‑related credits, especially...
Short-Term Bond ETFs Are Still Fashionable
Short‑term bond ETFs remain a practical choice despite recent rate cuts, offering investors low‑cost exposure to conservative fixed‑income assets. While longer‑duration bonds promise higher yields and greater price sensitivity to rate moves, short‑term funds excel as liquid savings tools and...
2026 Rate Hike Appears First Time in Futures Market
A rate hike in 2026 is on the board for the first time in the futures market.
Fed Holds Rates as Yields Slip Amid Iran Conflict and Internal Divisions
The Federal Reserve will announce a hold on its benchmark rate at the March 2026 meeting, while 10‑year Treasury yields slipped to 4.202% amid soaring oil prices and heightened Middle East tensions. Market participants cite a near‑certain pause, internal disagreements...
Municipal Bankruptcy Stays Rare, but Credit Stress Keeps Chapter 9 in Focus
The municipal bond market faces heightened credit stress in 2026, but actual bankruptcies remain uncommon. While the ratio of upgrades to downgrades tightens, sector‑specific risks are emerging in project finance, housing, and healthcare issuances. Chapter 9 remains limited to municipalities, with...
Traders Rethink Fed Rates Outlook as Growth Worries Build
Bond traders are rapidly unwinding short bets on U.S. Treasuries as confidence returns that the Federal Reserve can deliver at least one 25‑basis‑point rate cut by the end of 2026. The two‑year yield slipped roughly 10 basis points after peaking...
Trump's Influence Undermines Fed Credibility Amid Rate‑Cut Skepticism
When you see markets pricing in no chance of a cut in April, and less than a cut this entire year, and we are still talking about the possibility of three dissents against holding rates constant today, you realize how...
Powell Could Remain FOMC Chair Until 2026
Remember my Manifesto? He’s legally elected FOMC Chair through December 31, 2026 regardless of who’s Chair of the Fed Board “Powell would also be eligible as a governor to remain in charge of rate-setting FOMC, potentially extending his influence over monetary...
AN IMPOSSIBLE FOMC MEETING
The Federal Open Market Committee convened an atypical session this week, delivering a surprise 25‑basis‑point rate increase despite a modest dip in headline inflation. The decision broke with the consensus of many analysts who had expected a pause, reflecting the...
Two‑Year Treasury Yields Hit 3.73%, Near 3‑Month High
Two-year Treasury yields up to 3.731% for the session and at some of the highest levels of the past three months https://t.co/yjJZJiv8JX
Powell’s Tepid Stance on Energy Prices Delays Rate Cuts
the significant part is Powell's relatively lukewarm support for looking through energy prices. 5 years of missing their target is clearly bothering them. They are gonna need to see genuine economic weakness to cut again
Cat Bond Issuance Could Set New Records for Both February and March in 2026
Catastrophe bond issuance in the first quarter of 2026 is projected between $6.34 billion and $6.54 billion, making it the second‑largest Q1 on record. February 2026 already broke the $2 billion threshold and March is on track to exceed $3 billion, setting new monthly...
Powell's Low Job Breakeven Comment Pushes USTs Down
USTs pressured lower by Powell's comment that breakeven rate for new jobs is very low
Mid‑year Core Inflation Dip Could Push Rate Cuts to September
So mid-year is when we should start to see progress on core inflation. Probably resets “good news” cut clock to like September.
QAI: Hedge Fund Replication ETF With TIPs-Like Return And Risk
The NYLI Hedge Multi‑Strategy Tracker ETF (QAI) offers investors hedge‑fund style exposure through a blend of ETFs and swaps, charging a 0.88% expense ratio and delivering a 1.47% trailing‑12‑month yield. Launched in 2009, QAI emphasizes high‑quality, floating‑rate investment‑grade debt and...
FOMC Keeps Short‑Run Rates, Raises Long‑Run Growth Outlook
No change to the FOMC's short-run rate projections, but interestingly, median FOMC participant sees long-run growth now at 2% (up from 1.8% in December) and R* at 1.1% (up from 1%). https://t.co/dAHaot3Kk4
FOMC Holds Rates, Keeps Forward Guidance Steady Amid Iran Uncertainty
Insta-read #FOMC: No change in rates No change in '26 or '27 dots 1x dissent (slight hawkish) "Uncertain implications" of Iran Two-sided risk language
Fed Holds Rates as Middle East Tensions Spike Treasury Yields
The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75% amid a sharp rise in 10‑year Treasury yields triggered by Middle East conflict and a surge in oil prices. The decision reflects a split inside the Fed between hawks demanding...
Fed Holds Rates, Core Inflation Forecast Rises
The Fed held rates steady. There was one dissent. The median rate “dot” was unchanged, as was the 12-7 split on cuts vs. no cuts. The median core PCE inflation forecast revised to 2.7% from 2.5%. The median long-run rate “dot”...
2‑Year Yield Above Fed Funds Signals No Rate Cuts
2-Year Treasury yield (blue line, market expectations of Fed policy) > Federal Funds Rate (red line, actual policy) suggests Fed is unlikely to cut. https://t.co/7odcQloUt0
A Preferred Technology Infrastructure Bond
A senior unsecured note issued by a globally recognized technology infrastructure firm, rated BBB, is highlighted for its strong free cash flow and a nine‑figure order backlog that secures revenue for upcoming quarters. The bond currently trades at a spread...
June Fed Cut Seen at 37% Probability Amid Powell’s Hold
Expectations are building for a rate cut There’s a 37% probability the June FOMC will cut 25bps Powell has been the last line holding rates as President Trump publicly pushed to lower June is also the first Fed meeting where Powell is not...
Rate Shifts Since Jan FOMC Concentrated at Front End
Rates moves from Jan FOMC to today are basically all in the front end https://t.co/z4SHlodCLM
FOMC Day May Reset Market’s Minimal Cut Outlook
FOMC day and "extended pause" hedging pressuring whites. 2026 cuts down to 23 bps. Of course, Fed has an opportunity reset all of this via FOMC statement, SEP, and presser. Should be a fun day https://t.co/pMoJFfaIiY
10‑Year Yield Falls, Yet 10y10y Hits Record Risk Premium
The 10-year Treasury yield (blue) has fallen, pulled down by expectations of Fed easing and a lower 2-year yield (black). But that's a deceptive picture. 10y10y forward yield is near record highs (red). Markets price big risk premia in long-term...
Yield Curve Reflects Economic Quad Cycle, Not Daily Noise
YIELD CURVE: doesn't care about Taco Time Trading, Tourists, etc. It cares about The Quads (i.e. The Cycle) #Quad1 peaked in early FEB and the #Quad3 slowdown continues in the real economy this morning https://t.co/KVMr12qbUs