Today's Bonds Pulse
US Treasury market steadies after Iran conflict sparks volatility
The US Treasury market has settled back to pre‑war calm following turbulence triggered by the Iran conflict, and expectations for bond‑market swings have fallen to near their lowest level of the year. Meanwhile, 30‑year Treasury yields slipped from a 19‑year high as optimism builds.
PS Quarterly Interview: Desmond Lachman
In a recent Project Syndicate interview, economist Desmond Lachman warns that President Donald Trump’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy could revive bond‑market vigilantes and destabilize the U.S. Treasury market. He argues that such stress may puncture the soaring AI‑related equity rally and push the economy toward recession. Lachman also highlights that the fallout would extend beyond America, aggravating debt vulnerabilities in Japan and imbalances in China. The commentary underscores how geopolitical posture directly shapes financial stability and growth prospects.
GCC Bond, Sukuk Issuances Plunge Amid Iran War- #CapitalMarkets #Finance #Treasury #Finance
GCC dollar‑denominated bond and sukuk issuances have plunged since the Iran war erupted, despite the region’s strong credit fundamentals earlier in 2026. The GCC still represents roughly 40% of all emerging‑market dollar issuance this year, with outstanding DCM at $1.2 trillion....
Mounting Interest Costs Pushed Debt Service Bill to P2.1 Trillion
The Philippines’ debt service bill surged to P2.1 trillion in 2025, a 4 percent increase over the previous year and 2.44 percent above the government’s P2.05‑trillion target. Interest payments jumped 11.8 percent to P854.1 billion, representing 19.4 percent of total revenues and 14.3 percent of expenditures. Domestic...
Northern Funds Multi-Manager Emerging Markets Debt Opportunity Fund Q4 2025 Commentary
Northern Funds’ Multi‑Manager Emerging Markets Debt Opportunity Fund matched its blended benchmark in Q4 2025, delivering an 8.63% return versus 8.62% for the index. The fund’s outperformance stemmed from a zero‑weight position in Egypt’s local‑currency debt and overweight exposure to sovereign...
Never Cutters, Part 2: 5 More High-Yield CEFs That Have Never Cut The Distribution
The article spotlights five high‑yield closed‑end funds—BIT, BME, BST, BUI and GLU—that have never reduced their distributions in at least ten years, making them attractive for income‑focused retirees. BIT offers nearly 12% yield but shows weakening earnings coverage and rising...
Chaos of War Bolsters 10-Year Real Yield Heading Into This Week’s Auction
War‑driven uncertainty in Europe and the Middle East has pushed the 10‑year Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities (TIPS) real yield to its highest level in a decade, setting the stage for this week’s Treasury auction. The surge reflects heightened inflation expectations and...
Global Debt Surges to Record $348 Trillion, Crisis Deepens
‼️Global debt CRISIS is reaching INSANE levels: World debt SPIKED +$29 trillion in 2025, to $348 trillion, the highest EVER. This was the 2nd LARGEST annual increase in HISTORY. Global government debt hit a record $107 trillion.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-dropped-amid-rising-ai-and-geopolitical-uncertainty-weekly-market-recap-trading-week-09-20-a312
Short‑End Bonds Spike on Energy Shock, Exposing Complacency
Short end bond curve (OUS) reaction to the energy shock, and the MASSIVE market complacency. https://t.co/FPG8npWCCQ
JPMorgan Makes Bold Push to Offload Huge LBO Debt
JPMorgan Chase is preparing to place more than $30 billion of leveraged‑finance debt for upcoming buyouts, including Electronic Arts, Sealed Air and a pending Qualtrics transaction. The bank’s effort follows CEO Jamie Dimon’s warnings that the credit cycle could turn sour,...
Treasury Yields Surge, Mortgage Rates Spike Amid Deficit Fears
Treasury Yields Jump, 10-Year to 4.28%, 30-Year to 4.90%, Mortgage Rates Spike to 6.41%, on Inflation & Deficit Fears. US Government sold $651 billion of Treasury securities this week into these rising yields https://t.co/PBjZjAGHme https://t.co/VXWtZ8bNKw
Rising Junk Yields Signal Early Credit Weakness
Credit spreads are starting to move. Junk bond yields just hit a 3-month high at 7.34%, while high-yield spreads are trending higher in early 2026. That’s usually the first crack. Credit weakens → liquidity tightens → risk assets feel it next. Still early. Time...
Brazil’s Corporate Debt Drama Is Entering a New Chapter
Brazilian corporations have re‑entered the spotlight as two major firms announced out‑of‑court restructurings covering roughly $13.5 billion of debt. The moves, reported by Bloomberg’s The Brink, signal a shift from judicial to market‑driven solutions amid Brazil’s lingering economic slowdown. Investment banks...
US Debt Costs, Not Iran, Pose Existential Threat
The biggest issue the US is dealing with right now isn’t Iran — it’s the cost of its own debt. Plain and simple: The government can’t afford a war at this stage, and higher interest rates are becoming an existential threat. https://t.co/mHVMQJMS82 https://t.co/yW1dmgDC7i
TLT Poised to Breach Feb Low, Eye Historic Lows
$TLT - In just 2 weeks it's back to the February low due to the Iran war. If it beaks the February low(86.43) we will likely see a retest of the 2025 low and maybe even the 2023 low. https://t.co/Mm9e0lX2JM
The Market Is Punishing the Equity. The Bond Is Along for the Ride. That Is the Opportunity.
An A+ rated corporate bond is trading 50 basis points wider than its credit rating suggests, reflecting a rare disconnect between market perception and fundamentals. The issuer’s balance sheet shows liquid assets exceeding total debt, and fee‑related earnings cover interest...
Treasury Yields Surge, Inflation Concerns Resurface
"Inflation isn't a problem at all." Ten Year Treasury Yield: "Hold my beer." 🍺 One of the biggest shifts from February to March? $TNX bounced of support at 4.0% as rates move higher as prices appear to be 📈. https://t.co/Y10UC0y7lL
Gold and Stocks Tumble as Treasuries Rebound Begins
Gold selling off with stocks is necessary now for Treasuries to return. And this is playing out exactly as I argued it would. Phase 1 of the reverse carry trade.
BOJ Seen Waiting Till April for Rate Hike Amid Iran War Turbulence
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy rate at 0.75% at the March 2026 meeting, postponing any hike until at least April. Market participants cite heightened volatility from the Iran‑Israel conflict and surging energy prices as key...
Financial Services Roundup: Market Talk
European bank credit default swap (CDS) spreads rose as risk‑off sentiment intensified amid the ongoing Middle East war, according to Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya. The iTraxx Europe Senior Financial index climbed 2 basis points to 69 bps, while the sub‑financials index...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms the Kingdom of Norway at AAA, Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS confirmed Norway’s long‑term sovereign ratings at AAA for both foreign and local currency on March 13, 2026, while its short‑term ratings were affirmed at R‑1 (high). All four ratings retained a stable trend, indicating no change in outlook....
Morningstar DBRS Confirms Republic of Ireland at AA, Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS reaffirmed Ireland’s long‑term sovereign rating at AA with a stable outlook, and its short‑term rating at R‑1 (high). The agency highlighted a 4.9% rise in real modified domestic demand and a 12.3% surge in real GDP in 2025,...
U.S. Debt Is Like a Hallmark Movie Boyfriend Who Eventually Gets Dumped for a Small Town Firefighter, Budget Watchdog Warns
U.S. publicly held debt has ballooned to roughly the size of the nation’s GDP and is set to surpass the post‑World War II record as baby‑boomers retire and entitlement spending climbs. Yale Budget Lab’s Martha Gimbel warned that investors currently accept...
Weekly: War Comes To The US Front-End
U.S. Treasury markets experienced a sharp front‑end rally this week, with two‑year yields climbing roughly 20 basis points while ten‑year yields added about 12 basis points. The differential move produced a bear‑flattened curve, indicating heightened short‑term rate pressure. Market participants...
Mississippi's Outlook Revised up to Stable by S&P
S&P Global Ratings lifted Mississippi’s general‑obligation bond outlook to stable from negative and reaffirmed its AA rating, citing structurally balanced budgets and healthier reserves. The state posted an 8% revenue surplus in fiscal 2025 and its cash‑stabilization reserve reached $667 million,...
Braccan Mortgage Funding 2026-1: Presale Report
Morningstar DBRS has issued provisional credit ratings for the residential mortgage‑backed securities of Braccan Mortgage Funding 2026‑1. The senior Class A tranche received a (P) AAA rating, Class B a (P) AA rating, while lower tranches were rated (P) A, (P) BBB‑high and (P) BBB‑low respectively. All ratings...
FIGRE Trust Issues $335.7 Million From Pool of HELOC
FIGRE Trust is launching the 2026‑HF3 securitization, selling $335.7 million of revolving home‑equity lines of credit (HELOC) in eight SOFR‑linked tranches. The A1A tranche holds $164.3 million and receives a 44.5% credit‑enhancement cushion, while lower tranches have progressively smaller enhancements. The underlying...
Eutelsat Completes Its Re-Financing Plan, Closing €1.5bn Bond Offering
Eutelsat announced the completion of its €5 billion financing plan by closing a €1.5 billion senior note issuance, the final step of a multi‑year equity and debt strategy. The proceeds will fund the deployment of OneWeb’s low‑Earth‑orbit satellites and support Europe’s IRIS²...
Bond Yields Rise on Moderate Oil Shock, Easing Doubtful
How to interpret the rise in bond yields across the G10? Here's a guess: the market has priced in moderate oil disruption that marginally raises upside inflation risks and lowers probability of central bank easing this year. If at some...
Bank of Canada Cuts Rates, yet Yields Rise
tonight at your cocktail 🍸 party when someone says that interest rates are coming down and the central bank has you covered, tell them the @bankofcanada has dropped rates 7 times since Sep/24 and 5 & 10 yields are higher...
Banks May Be Shut but Amazon Delivers
The episode examines how the Middle East war is reshaping capital markets, highlighting a shift in euro‑denominated bond issuance: banks have paused their euro funding while corporate issuers, notably Amazon, are stepping in with record‑breaking deals. Amazon raised €14.5 billion across...
Investment-Grade Bonds Break Support, Signaling Market Stress
Investment-grade bonds just broke down from a 3-year support. These are early signs of stress in the bond market. Keep in mind that junk bonds are also trading well below their 200-day moving average now. Latest presentation: https://t.co/gDlMFjFGml https://t.co/UUDCngoUN8
Rate Volatility Rising; Oil Hikes Push Yields Higher
I went over this with clients already: rate volatility is just starting… “If 80 then 100” is what I said about MOVE and it’s got lots of room to move higher. Higher oil = higher yields
What to Know About a $6 Billion Mortgage Bond ETF That Became This Fund's Largest Holding
Harvest Investment Services added 319,467 shares of the First Trust Low Duration Opportunities ETF, valued at about $16 million, raising its stake to roughly 7 % of the manager’s reported AUM. The ETF, LMBS, manages about $6 billion, offers a 4 % yield and...
Fed Treasury Holdings Surge, Keeping Gold Bullish
The Fed's balance sheet holdings of US Treasuries is now at October 2024 levels and rising. This is why it's difficult to get secularly bearish on gold. Material balance sheet expansion has begun with asset prices at ATHs and no...
P3 Backers Urge Easing of Tax-Exempt Bond Rules on Asset Leases
Public‑private partnership advocates are urging the IRS to scrap the defeasance rule that forces tax‑exempt bonds to be retired when a government leases an asset to a private operator. They argue the regulation inflates financing costs and discourages asset‑recycling deals...
Fitch Raises Oklahoma's Rating a Notch to AA-Plus
Oklahoma’s sovereign credit rating was raised by Fitch to AA‑plus with a stable outlook, marking the state’s third upgrade since 2024 after similar moves by S&P and Moody’s. The agency cited sustained fiscal discipline, robust operating reserves and low long‑term...
Public Banks And Municipal Bonds
The article critiques the notion that municipal governments can substantially expand fiscal space by having local public banks purchase their own bonds. It argues that a new bank must first raise equity, limiting its initial balance sheet, and that banks...
Rising Energy Costs Deepen Fragile Economic Crisis
👇Looking for the catalyst? And it was already a fragile economic environment before the recent spike in energy costs (which will compound these dynamics below) And well said @wesbury …
Euronext Oslo Børs – Farsund Kommune - Received Application for Listing of Bonds
Norwegian municipal authority Farsund kommune has submitted an application to list its bonds on the Euronext Oslo Børs, receiving ISIN NO0013738286. The listing will bring the bonds under the EU Market Abuse Regulation, imposing immediate disclosure obligations on the issuer....
RBI Net Buys Record $6.2 Billion Debt to Shield Bonds From War Shockwaves
The Reserve Bank of India purchased a record 572.10 billion rupees (about $6.2 billion) of government bonds in the week ending 6 March, marking its third straight week of net buying. The purchases are part of a broader liquidity infusion strategy aimed at...
Adapt Fast: Quad3 Yield Breakout Signals Immediate Action
In today's Early Look: "#Quad3 Bond Yield Breakout" The Signaling Process that I built changed. I changed with it. When lightning hits the golf course, do you want to debate last Tuesday's forecast — or get off the fairway? https://t.co/pZVQzeHQXQ
Global Investors Unwilling to Let Go of Adani Bonds Despite Global Uncertainty
Global investors are holding onto Adani Group’s dollar‑denominated bonds despite heightened market uncertainty from the West Asia crisis. On March 12, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd (APSEZ) launched a cash tender to buy back up to $495 million of senior...
UST Yields Signal Bullish Curve Breakout, Review Ahead
UST Bond Yields signaling a Bullish TREND Breakout, across the curve - will review on The Macro Show https://t.co/MUbXHcltNR
China’s Credit Shows Surprise Growth as Firms Step Up Borrowing
China’s aggregate financing surged 2.4 trillion yuan in February, outpacing the Bloomberg‑survey median forecast of 2 trillion yuan. The People’s Bank of China reported that banks extended 900 billion yuan of new corporate loans, also beating expectations. The growth was driven by stronger...
Global Shocks Now Drive Half of Rate Changes
Global shocks now account for about half of the variation in interest rates, more than double their role in earlier decades. https://t.co/a8Dhi9Gxpu
Crude Surge Drives Bonds, Dollar, S&P 500 Movements
Nice chat with @julesaly looking at how the surge in crude oil is shaping price action in bonds, the US dollar, and the S&P 500. Today on @ausbiztv: https://t.co/8j3fNOcH2C
Submission of Rule Filing SR-FICC-2026-005 – Establish Implementation Timeframe for Enhancement of Correlation Calculation for Bond Haircut Models
On March 13, 2026 the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation (FICC) submitted rule filing SR‑FICC‑2026‑005 to the SEC, seeking to set a delayed implementation schedule for enhancements to the correlation calculation used in bond haircut models. The filing amends the QRM Methodology Document...
2‑Year Treasury Yields Spike to Highest Since August 2025
Yields on the 2-year Treasury note posted their largest daily increase since May 2, 2025 (the day of a surprisingly strong payroll report), and closed at their highest level since Aug. 21, 2025, the day before Powell signaled a likely...
SCI-CLO-100:-Market-Matures-as-Equity-Returns-Compress-and-Captive-Capital-Dominates
The inaugural SCI CLO 100 event in London highlighted a maturing collateralized loan obligation market, where equity tranche returns are compressing and captive capital from banks now dominates funding. Managers reported a pronounced bifurcation between high‑quality and lower‑quality loan assets, while...
University of California Backs Plan for $23 Billion Research Bond
University of California is backing S.B. 895, a bipartisan bill proposing a $23 billion general‑obligation bond to fund research across the state. The bond would create the California Foundation for Science and Health Research to award grants and loans to universities,...