Today's Bonds Pulse
Bond Yields Surge to 19-Year High, Sparking Stock Market Concerns
The 30‑year Treasury yield climbed to a 19‑year peak while the 10‑year rose from 4.03% to 4.69% before easing to about 4.5%. Goldman Sachs research notes that half‑percentage‑point spikes in yields typically turn short‑term S&P 500 returns negative, heightening correction risk. Inflation is running at 3.8% year‑over‑year, fueling the sell‑off.
Bond And Loan Financing
The article clarifies how municipal bonds differ from bank loans, emphasizing that bonds do not create money while loans do through deposit creation. It walks through a $900 bond issuance, showing how an investment‑bank underwriter sells the securities, deducts fees, and delivers net proceeds to the city. When a public bank purchases a portion of the issue, the total issuance can expand, but the bank swaps cash for an illiquid bond asset, affecting its liquidity profile. The piece concludes that private banks have no privileged status in buying municipal bonds and must treat such purchases like any other investor.
Rates Aren’t High—History Shows They’ve Just Risen
and when you find yourself thinking that rates/yields are high, just remember, they're not... they rose for 40 years... they fell for 38 years... they bottomed (big time), almost 6 years ago... https://t.co/6tRJ9pYxtQ
Rising Yields Don't Spell Trouble for the S&P
when they tell you that rising yields $TNX are bad for stocks $SPX, just tell'em they're wrong... https://t.co/xFoneNHg9i
Iran-Israel Conflict Dampens Safe-Haven Demand as Dollar and Treasury Yields Edge Higher
Investors shunned traditional safe havens as the Iran‑Israel war kept bond yields from falling, with the 10‑year Treasury yield easing to 4.35% and the dollar gaining only modestly against the yen. The muted flight‑to‑safety reflects uncertainty over any lasting de‑escalation.
Policy Paper: Chancellor Meeting with Gilt-Edged Market Makers: Minutes - March 2026
On 23 March 2026 the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Minister for Pensions convened a meeting with economists from the primary dealer firms that act as wholesale gilt‑edged market makers (GEMMs) at HM Treasury. The session focused on the participants’ views...
India Bonds Seen Lower as Elevated Oil, Higher US Yields Pinch; Debt Sale in Focus
Indian government bond yields slipped on Tuesday as Brent crude hovered above $100 a barrel and U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields steadied near 4.40%, the sharpest sell‑off since October 2023. The benchmark 2035 bond yield was expected to trade between 6.81%...
Asian Corporate Bonds Rebound After Trump Delays Iran Strike
Asian corporate bond markets rallied on Tuesday as geopolitical tension eased following President Donald Trump’s remarks about ongoing talks with Iran. Credit default swaps on investment‑grade Asian debt fell by at least four basis points, signaling reduced perceived risk. At...
SCHR: At Least Avoiding Credit Pressures From Oil-Led Reinflation
The Schwab Intermediate‑Term U.S. Treasury ETF (SCHR) is confronting heightened duration risk as inflation resurges from oil‑driven supply shocks. A 0.4 % increase in its yield‑to‑maturity has already erased roughly 2 % of the fund’s price, underscoring its sensitivity to a steeper...
Global Bond Markets Shed $2.5 Trillion Amid Iran Conflict and Stagflation Fears
Investors dumped $2.5 trillion of sovereign and corporate bonds in the past month as the Iran‑Israel war lifted oil prices and stoked inflation worries. The sell‑off marks the largest monthly loss since early 2023 and has pushed yields to multi‑year highs...
U.S. Treasury Rates Weekly Update for March 20, 2026
U.S. Treasury yields rose for a third consecutive week, with the 30‑year rate up 0.06 percentage points and the 10‑year climbing 0.11 points to 4.39%. The 3‑year Treasury held steady at 3.90%. The upward movement reflects market expectations of sustained...
New Mexico County Seeking to Avoid Bond Default Met Illegally, AG Says
Otero County, New Mexico, convened an emergency commission meeting on March 13 to approve a five‑year ICE contract that would fund a $5.26 million debt‑service payment and prevent default on $18.48 million of bonds tied to a 2007 jail project. The state attorney...
FREMF 2026-K178 Mortgage Trust and Freddie Mac Structured Pass-Through Certificates, Series K-178: Presale Report
DBRS, Inc. assigned provisional (P)AAA(sf) credit ratings to all classes of the FREMF 2026‑K178 Multifamily Mortgage Pass‑Through Certificates and the Freddie Mac Structured Pass‑Through Certificates Series K‑178. The ratings, issued on March 23, 2026, cover Class A‑1, A‑2 and X1 for each series and are marked...
NYC Outlook Takes Another Hit Heading Into $2.65B Deal
New York City is issuing $2.65 billion of general‑obligation bonds, but rating agencies Fitch, KBRA and Moody’s have shifted the city’s outlook to negative, citing a $5.4 billion budget gap and reliance on state‑approved tax hikes. The bond deal comprises four series,...
Buyside Approaches Data Center-Adjacent Bonds with Caution
Municipal bond issuance is accelerating as data‑center projects drive demand for public‑power and water infrastructure, with demand projected to rise 20‑25% annually through 2030. While public‑power issuance is down 33.7% year‑to‑date, water‑sewer issuance is up 15.9%, and analysts forecast up...
Fed Continues to Hold Rates Steady
The Federal Reserve left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%‑3.75%, extending the pause announced in December 2025. Officials cited elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook and the potential impact of Middle‑East tensions on U.S. growth....
EA's $15B Debt Oversubscribed, $25B Orders Signal Open Markets
$25B in orders on $EA’s $15B debt deal. Oversubscribed. Getting done. Capital markets are wide open… For the right issuers at the right price with the right Saudi SWF backstop.
Long-Term Treasuries Turn Risk‑On, Driven by Hedge‑Fund Basis Trades
LT USTs are now a "risk-on" asset: 10y UST yields UP on risk-off, DOWN on risk-on. This is the price action you would expect when 37% of net issuance of UST notes & bonds since 2022 have been bought by "Cayman...
Fed's Goolsbee Says He Could See Circumstances for Rate Hike
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC he could envision the Federal Reserve raising interest rates if inflation accelerates amid the Middle‑East conflict, while also acknowledging the possibility of multiple rate cuts if price pressures ease. The Fed left policy...
Steepening 10‑3 Curve Signals Shift to Cyclical Value Rally
The 10-3 Treasury Yield Curve is as steep as it has been since July 2022 after the 10-year spiked over the weekend. Historical playbook Every cycle: * Curve inverts → tightening / late cycle * Growth slows / recession risk builds * Fed pivots →...
Chart Of The Day: Treasuries Trashed As Inflation Fears Mount
U.S. Treasury prices have sharply declined as inflation concerns intensify, driven by surging energy commodities. Over the past month, long‑bond futures dropped six points and the 30‑year yield climbed roughly 30 basis points from its pre‑war low to 4.93%. The...
Treasury Auction Calendar Reveals Hidden Liquidity Map
This is a US Treasury auction schedule and it’s actually a liquidity map in disguise. Here’s the simple breakdown:
Bessent Prioritizes 10-Year Treasury Over Brent Oil
"Bessent is obsessed with the 10-year. He can let the Brent Oil go up, but not the 10Y-Treasury." @perkinscr97 https://t.co/Mn06ovDktZ
Fed Disappointment May Make This Bond ETF Appealing
The Federal Reserve has signaled no rate cuts until late 2026, disappointing many investors. With rates expected to stay steady and inflation still above target, fixed‑income managers are seeking duration‑neutral options. WisdomTree’s Floating Rate Treasury Fund (USFR), a $16.66 billion ETF...
Treasury Futures Surge: 3.5M Contracts Traded
Very Big Volume in Treasury Complex. Dimes (UST Classic 10 Yr Note Futures) have traded over 3.5 Million Contracts as of 1:40 pm EST.
2‑Year Yield Slides to Session Low, Bears Struggle
Treasury bears tried to claw back after the 705am ET yield plunge, but the 2yr yield is back on the session lows... down 10bps to 3.81% https://t.co/Cq2pe8M3wf
DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Sherman on the Fed’s TACO Trade & Fixed Income Strategy
At the Exchange conference, DoubleLine deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman warned that the market’s expectation of a quick Fed rate cut—dubbed the TACO trade—is premature. He said the Fed will stay on autopilot until labor market weakness appears, and he pinpointed...
Muni Monthly: February 2026
Franklin Templeton’s February 2026 Muni Monthly is accompanied by an extensive legal disclaimer that emphasizes the material is for general interest only and not investment advice. The notice clarifies that past performance does not guarantee future results, highlights potential loss...
High Yields Fuel Doubt Over Trump's Iran Statement
4.5% bond yields are too much for Bessent so he probably drafted the Trump statement about Iran talks. Irant not buying it https://t.co/I8PHct99Kf
Higher Rates Worsen, Not Fix, Credit Problems
Question from a macro-ignorant options guy: Credit issues get better with sharply higher interest rates, right? https://t.co/UdR6NlJ6OR
Nebius Group Announces Closing of Private Offering of Convertible Senior Notes, With Aggregate Gross Proceeds of Approximately $4.3 Billion
Nebius Group N.V. closed a private placement of convertible senior notes, raising roughly $4.3 billion. The offering comprised two series: 1.250% notes due 2031 and 2.625% notes due 2033, sold to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A. The capital will fund the...
UK Gilts Suffer Worst Month Since Truss Amid Oil Spike
Gilts face worst month since Liz Truss as oil spike jolts UK market https://t.co/hvaQFGeXXa via @greg_ritchie https://t.co/K33eBm9D5V
Fed May Need Emergency 0.5% Rate Cut Amid Credit Slowdown
If credit markets continue slowing down because of straits of Hormuz oil shock and unemployment shoots up, Fed may have to announce an emergency half a point cut in next two weeks.
High Yield’s Allocation Dilemma in a Tight Spread Market
High‑yield bonds are trading at historically tight spreads, curbing any further price appreciation and leaving carry as the main source of return. Portfolio managers, like Veritas' Ville Iso‑Mustajärvi, warn that while the asset class still offers modest diversification, its downside...
Markets Expect Four BOE Quarter‑Point Rate Hikes by 2026
Traders fully price 4 quarter-point hikes from the BOE in 2026 https://t.co/W64ms8NeB5 via @greg_ritchie https://t.co/61ntA97cXa
Vanguard Finally Files for Junk Bond ETF Nearly Two Decades Later
Vanguard announced filing for a U.S. high‑yield corporate bond ETF (VCHY), slated for a June launch, finally entering a market dominated by iShares HYG and State Street JNK since 2007. The fund will track Bloomberg’s US High‑Yield $250 million 2% Issuer...
Japan Weighs Cutting Inflation-Linked Bond Buybacks as Demand Rises
Japan is considering trimming its inflation‑linked government bond buy‑backs to about ¥15 billion per operation for April and June, down from ¥20 billion a month in Q1. The change follows a rise in break‑even inflation rates above 1.9%, indicating stronger investor demand...
High‑Yield Spreads Hit 9‑Month High, Massive Fund
"High-yield spreads rose to a 9-month high this week, and we’ve seen the largest weekly withdrawals from high-yield mutual funds since Liberation Day" --JPM
High‑Yield ETFs Surpass 7% Yield, Pull $2 B+ of New Money in 2026
Investors have funneled more than $2.3 billion into the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF and $60 million into the Global X SuperDividend ETF this year, chasing yields that top 7%. The surge reflects a broader move toward high‑yield, bond‑like ETFs as traditional...
$JOJO: CE-Credit Webinar on Credit Rotation — Why Static Bond Allocations May Be a Risk
The ATAC Credit Rotation ETF ($JOJO) challenges the common belief that bond exposure should stay static, proposing a dynamic credit‑rotation framework. Portfolio manager Michael Gayed will detail this approach in a CE‑credit approved webinar on March 24, covering credit‑vs‑duration risk, utilities...
Oil Shock Could Trigger Bond Market Turmoil, Warns FT
The Financial Times’ Katie Martin: “It is hard, in that environment, to pick the market moves that really matter. This week’s wild ride in UK government bonds is, I think, one of them. It is an early warning sign of...
USTs Open Rough; Front-End Pressure
Nasty open for USTs with front-end under the most pressure. 2y futs off 3.5 ticks
Senegal Overstretch Saga Shadows Francophone Debt Diversion
The Iran‑related war in the Middle East has effectively halted new sovereign bond issuance in Francophone Sub‑Saharan Africa, leaving the region with only $6 billion of fresh issuance—half of last year’s pace. Credit spreads have surged to 375 basis points, and...
Markets Reprice Inflation Shock, Not Recession Fears
1/4 Yesterday I posted the thread below arguing that the market is repricing an inflation shock, not a recession scare. 10-year yields are rising, bond volatility is exploding, inflation expectations are jumping, and Fed pricing has swung from cuts toward hikes. Follow up...
Long‑term UST Holders Lost ~80% Purchasing Power
Joke's on you - anyone that has owned LT USTs for the past 10 years has already had their purchasing power destroyed (ZB priced in gold down ~80% since global CB's stopped buying USTs on net in 3q14 & ramped...
Fannie, Freddie Place Large Bids for Mortgage-Backed Securities
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have begun placing large orders for mortgage‑backed securities, acting on President Trump’s directive to acquire $200 billion of MBS to help lower mortgage rates. Their retained‑portfolio balances have rebounded to $278 billion, up from $158 billion at the...
Imminent Treasury Supply Surge Threatens Auction Failure
This is maybe not this week or even next month, but this is a failed auction waiting to happen. #TreasurySupply
Spotting Double Convexity in Undervalued Delaware Market
There’s having convexity. And then there’s having convexity on top of convexity. The edge is seeing it before the path is obvious. In the rearview mirror, returns always look smaller. I may have discovered a corner of the market that is oddly...
This 11% Yielder Powers AI’s Insatiable Appetite But The Leverage Makes You The Co-Pilot
The article spotlights Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Corp. (TYG), an 11.69% yielding closed‑end fund positioned to profit from the AI‑driven surge in U.S. electricity demand. Macro data shows data‑center power needs could hit 74 GW by 2028, outpacing current capacity and prompting...
Fannie, Freddie Flood Market with Big MBS Bids
A bit of weekend announcement aimed at stabilising soaring mortgage rates FANNIE, FREDDIE PLACE LARGE BIDS FOR MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES
Markets Shift to Tightening, Cuts Delayed Until 2027
Markets are now pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING by year-end. Not cuts. Tightening. Six months ago the market expected 3+ cuts in 2026. Next potential cut: autumn 2027. Good luck hitting even that. https://t.co/mmyLstJwNe