Today's Bonds Pulse
US Treasury market steadies after Iran conflict sparks volatility
The US Treasury market has settled back to pre‑war calm following turbulence triggered by the Iran conflict, and expectations for bond‑market swings have fallen to near their lowest level of the year. Meanwhile, 30‑year Treasury yields slipped from a 19‑year high as optimism builds.
AtkinsRéalis Secures $700 Million in Private Debentures, Upgrades Credit Rating
Engineering and consulting firm AtkinsRéalis priced a $700 million private debenture offering, issuing $400 million of 4.411% Series 9 notes and $300 million of 4.756% Series 10 notes. The proceeds will retire $700 million of existing debt and the company received a BBB rating upgrade from Morningstar DBRS.
Portfolio Trading for Rates and Credit Is Live on MTS BondVision
Euronext’s MTS BondVision platform has launched Portfolio Trading for rates and credit, enabling buyside clients to execute baskets of bonds simultaneously via API and GUI. The service, built with dealers and buyside input, already supported trades in European government bonds,...
East Bay MUD Set to Price $675M in Water Revenue Bonds
East Bay Municipal Utility District (EBMUD) will price $675 million of water‑system revenue bonds, split between a $329 million green series and a $365 million refunding series. The issuance arrives amid heightened market volatility caused by the Israel‑Iran conflict, yet EBMUD’s strong credit...
Archwest Mortgage Trust 2026-RTL1: Credit Rating Report
Morningstar DBRS issued provisional‑to‑final credit ratings for Archwest Mortgage Trust’s 2026‑RTL1 residential mortgage‑backed securities. The A1 tranche received an A (low) rating, A2 was assigned BBB (low), M1 earned BB (low) and the most junior M2 tranche was rated B...
US 10‑Year Yield Climbs to Over 4.40%
Of note: Up 7 basis points so far today, the yield on the US 10-year government bond is currently trading above 4.40%. #economy #markets #bonds
US Sells 7-Year Notes at 4.255% vs 4.252% WI
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $44 billion of 7‑year notes at a 4.255% yield, just 0.3 basis points above the when‑issued rate, a tighter tail than the 2.0 bps and 1.3 bps seen in recent 2‑year and 5‑year sales. Meanwhile, 2‑year yields surged 8.8 bps...
U.S. Treasury Five‑Year Note Auction Draws Modest Demand, Yield Curve Tensions Rise
The Treasury’s most recent five‑year note auction attracted demand that fell short of recent averages, prompting a modest rise in mid‑term yields. The weaker bid‑to‑cover ratio underscores growing caution among investors amid heightened geopolitical risk and inflation concerns.
Golden Bar (Securitisation) S.r.l. - Series 2026-1: Credit Rating Report
DBRS Ratings GmbH (Morningstar DBRS) issued provisional credit ratings for Golden Bar (Securitisation) S.r.l.’s Series 2026‑1 on March 26, 2026. The senior Class A notes received a AAA rating, while Class B was rated AA and Classes C, E, and D received A‑level ratings. The lower‑rated Class A2 notes...
Crane Bond Fund Symposium 2026: The Case for Fixed Income in Sustainable Investing
At the Crane Bond Fund Symposium 2026 in Boston, Henry Shilling argued that sustainable fixed‑income investing is vastly under‑represented, accounting for less than 1% of the $7.6 trillion taxable and municipal bond market. He highlighted the structural fit of bonds—explicit capital...
Fed Governor Barr Warns Iran War Could Stall Inflation Decline and Rate Cuts
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr warned that the escalating Iran war could lift oil and gasoline prices, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% goal and delaying any further rate cuts. The comment adds a geopolitical layer to the Fed’s dual‑mandate...
Long SOFR Futures Cheap, Expect No Rate Hikes
Now that cuts have been completely priced out through late 2026 into 1H 2027, long SOFR futures are extremely attractively priced. I do not believe hikes will happen as that would twist the knife into a global recession, so therefore...
As Long-Term Bonds Fail to Protect Again, Where Can Investors Find Safety?
Manulife Investment Management’s CIO Nathan Thooft warns that long‑duration U.S. Treasury bonds have again failed to act as a hedge, as equities and bonds moved together amid the US‑Israeli conflict and rising inflation. He argues that the positive equity‑bond correlation,...
High‑Yield Spreads Tight Now, Widening Ahead
So far, HY credit spreads haven't widened anyway near as much as they should - given sustained oil prices & its large swings, not to mention supported high VIX & mechanical selling. Wait and see mode only lasts so long... Geopolitical shocks...
A Lost Decade for Bonds Means High-Quality Stocks Are Best Way to Protect...
Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson warns that bonds will deliver a lost decade of returns. He argues that persistent, three‑decade inflation driven by war‑related debt and pandemic stimulus makes high‑quality U.S. stocks the best hedge. Wilson recommends...
Europe Bond Market Doubts Grow Over Recovery From War Rout
European sovereign bond markets remain under pressure after a sharp sell‑off triggered by the Middle East war, and analysts say a swift end to the conflict is unlikely to spark a rapid rebound. Intermittent rallies have emerged on hopes of...
Zillow Forecasts 6.48% Mortgage Rate, Outlines Three Housing Market Scenarios
Zillow Group said the 30‑year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.48% on March 25 and released three scenarios that model how the rate’s duration could affect home‑buyer behavior. The forecast underscores lingering affordability pressure even as rates dip slightly.
European Shares Slip as ECB Rate‑Hike Fears Hit Major Stocks
European equities fell sharply on Thursday as investors priced in higher ECB rates, dragging down a range of listed companies from Germany’s SMA Solar to France’s Vinci. The sell‑off coincided with a $1.4 billion Henkel acquisition, a 1% revenue dip at...
Start Investing Safely with ₦5,000 FGN Bonds
Most young Nigerians do not know that the Federal Government of Nigeria is literally offering them a safe investment starting from just ₦5,000. FGN Savings Bonds are one of the most underutilized investments in Nigeria. The offer opens every month. The minimum is...
Trust the Dollar, Not the Treasury
Investors are demanding a higher risk premium on U.S. Treasuries, while confidence in the U.S. dollar remains largely intact. A recent study measuring convenience yields shows a sharp decline for short‑term and 10‑year Treasuries since 2024, but the dollar’s convenience...
Liberty's $475
Macro: convertible issuance funds growth but signals investor caution. Key: Liberty upsized $475M 0% convertibles due 2032, $37.44 conv (~30% premium). Risks: dilution, unsecured notes, redemption triggers. Trading insight: avoid new longs pre-conversion. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Composer Outperforms TIP in Replication Symphony
Been a while since I pulled this chart up....but this is my TIPs replication symphony on Composer plotted vs TIP https://t.co/6sUc1nkdUT https://t.co/msvzs0T9F1
Vanke Seeks Bond Delay Again as It Works on Restructuring Plan
China Vanke Co., a distressed property developer, has approached holders of its yuan‑denominated bond maturing on April 23 to seek a payment postponement. In meetings last week, Vanke indicated it is also weighing a broader restructuring that could involve extending...
5s30s
5s30s just took out the low from Monday. Back end flattening aggressively post auction https://t.co/KwTSaaxDhY
JPMorgan Unveils CDS Basket to Short Major Tech Debt
JP Morgan has launched a basket of credit default swaps designed to let hedge funds bet against the debt of $GOOGL, $AMZN, $ORCL, $META, and $MSFT 👀 https://t.co/snSNwBvm2p
Blue Owl, Apollo and KKR Hit by Gates and Moody's Downgrade in Private Credit
Blue Owl Capital halted redemptions from its retail credit vehicle, Apollo Global Management capped withdrawals at 5% after 11.2% redemption requests, and KKR’s flagship private‑credit fund was downgraded to junk by Moody's. The moves underscore a widening liquidity crunch in...
Hormuz Closure Likely Drives 10‑Year Yields Higher
As long as Hormuz stays closed (which is highly likely near term), 10y UST yields will likely keep rising until either Fed or Treasury are forced to inject USD liquidity (into an oil spike & increasingly fracturing global supply chains)...
10‑Year
10-year yield was sub 4% at the start of the war. Now it's over 4.4%. Worst month for $TLT since December 2024 https://t.co/OmX97S6MQ1
Vanguard Bond ETFs Lead High‑yield Winners, but Core Funds Lag Inflation
Vanguard's High‑Yield Corporate ETF (VWEHX) posted a cumulative real return above 25% over the past decade, joining Fidelity and T. Rowe Price as the top‑performing high‑yield bond ETFs. At the same time, Vanguard's flagship Total Bond Market Index fund (VBTLX) lost nearly...
Weekend Angst Pushes 2s and 5s to Daily Lows
2s and 5s low of the day before the 7yr auction. Not too surprising after two tailing auctions but obviously weekend angst major driver.
2‑Year Yield Surpasses Fed Funds, Signals No Cuts
The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) is now > the Federal Funds Effective Rate (red) and CPI (green). If you believe the 2-Year leads the FFER, there's less likelihood of a rate cut anytime soon. https://t.co/73ZCycQNlj
UK Gilts Spike Above 5% as Iran War Fuels Inflation and Fiscal Concerns
UK government bonds surged as the 10-year gilt yield briefly crossed the 5% mark on March 20, the highest level since the 2008 crisis. Traders link the jump to inflation pressures from the Iran‑Israel war and worries that the Treasury’s...
5‑7‑Year Treasurys Historically Yielded 6‑6.5%
Back in the day, on average, you could get 6-6.5% on 5-7yr Treasurys @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/rb6v4PeHGs
One in Five Tax Dollars Go to Debt Service
"For every five dollars the government receives in tax revenue, one dollar is spent on servicing the national debt" https://t.co/GZLf2MrQBV https://t.co/2mBzfPVgm2
Swiss National Bank Says 2025 Saw Record Swiss Franc Bond Issuances
The Swiss National Bank disclosed that 2025 delivered a record volume of new Swiss franc bond issuances and a surge in issuers, signaling deeper market liquidity. While exact figures were not disclosed, the report came alongside the SNB’s decision to...
Markets Shift From Rate Cuts to Tightening Regime
Six months ago: markets pricing 3+ rate cuts. Now: pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING. The Fed didn't pivot. The Fed reversed. 37% chance of ZERO cuts in 2026. This isn't a soft landing. This is a regime change. $SPY $TLT $QQQ https://t.co/UxC4Gdd51F
US Yield Spike Driven by Term Premia, Not Inflation
The move higher in US yields has been entirely driven by term premia, not inflation expectations. Real yields on 10-year bonds are the highest in almost a year. The implication seems to be that investors are worried about the fiscal...
JPMorgan Launches $8 Billion Junk‑bond Sale to Fund Record $55 Billion EA Leveraged Buyout
JPMorgan Chase has kicked off an $8 billion junk‑bond sale to finance a $55 billion leveraged buyout of Electronic Arts, the biggest LBO in history. The deal, led by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, Silver Lake and Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners, mixes...
Norway Signals Rate Hike After Holding at 4%
Norway pivots toward a hike after keeping its rate steady at 4% https://t.co/NIIgGpvVNO via @ottummelas https://t.co/RxPhCKi99b
Invesco Acquires Superstate’s $900 Million Tokenized T‑Bill Fund
Invesco has taken control of Superstate’s $900 million tokenized Treasury‑bill fund, USTB, expanding its digital‑asset lineup. The deal keeps Superstate as the technology partner and underscores a broader shift toward real‑world asset tokenization on blockchain.
China's $3T Surplus Hasn't Boosted US Bond Inflows
A thread on some work in progress, on China's US bond portfolio As the chart below shows, China's cumulative current account surplus has increased by $3 trillion since the end of 2019 -- and inflows into the US in the US...
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Why Preferred Stock Values Differ: A Guide for Investors
Preferred stocks blend equity and debt traits, featuring a fixed face (par) value that determines dividend calculations, while their market value fluctuates with investor sentiment and interest rates. The article explains how callable and retractable preferreds differ, noting that issuers...
Here Comes the Crash
Bond market volatility is accelerating, with the MOVE index climbing to 103.01 by mid‑2026. The surge coincides with a sharp rise in U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields, signaling heightened uncertainty in fixed‑income markets. Simultaneously, the equity‑focused VIX index mirrors this turbulence,...
Foreign Issuers Triple Panda Bond Sales to $4 B in March Amid Iran Conflict
Foreign issuers pushed panda bond sales in mainland China to 27.8 bn yuan ($4 bn) in March, more than tripling year‑to‑date volume. The surge comes as the Iran war pushes borrowers toward the yuan‑denominated on‑shore market, marking a record month for foreign...
Pagaya Offers $586.2 Million in Consumer Loan ABS
Pagaya Structured Products is launching a $586.2 million asset‑backed securities (ABS) program backed by unsecured consumer loans from 11 partner lenders. The deal comprises 15 note classes, most maturing on November 15, 2033, with the senior A1 tranche extending to April 15, 2027. Credit enhancement...
Snowy 2.0 Budget to Be Exhausted in Coming Months, Ratings Agency Says, as Gas Plant Hit by New Delays
Snowy Hydro’s flagship Snowy 2.0 pumped‑hydro scheme, a 2,200 MW storage project, is projected to breach its $12 bn AUD (≈$7.9 bn USD) capex by fiscal 2026, with the work only 70% complete. The federal government has already supplied $5.98 bn AUD (≈$3.9 bn USD) in...
Barclays: ECB Set to Hike as Energy Shock Hits Europe, Fed Likely to Stay on Hold
Barclays predicts the European Central Bank will begin tightening as early as next month, with two rate hikes anticipated in 2024, driven by a renewed energy‑inflation shock stemming from the Middle East conflict. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected...
Fed Expands FIMA Access, Extends Window, Could Crash Yields
This is a really great divergent policy thought we should keep on our radar. If it comes to fruition, we could see a collapse in treasury yields. Fantastic work from @ericwallerstein ! “The solution: the Fed should expand FIMA access to sovereign wealth...
Oil Shock Forces Fed, Bonds, and Outflows Higher
TLT lost $1.2B. HYG lost $623M. 10Y at 4.38% and rising. In a war. Who buys the bond dip? Foreign CBs may be selling to defend currencies vs DXY near 100. Pension funds face oil inflation that muddies the real yield math. Rate-cut traders...
IG Index Spread Returns to Near‑Unchanged Level
The IG index spread of 84bps is now back near unchanged levels since February 27 https://t.co/44eACVJ587
Bonds and Gold Drop, Boosting Money‑Market and Buffer ETFs
Where Have All the Hedges Gone? - @psarofagis channeling Paula Cole into a timely note today re how once again bonds fell with stocks. This time gold fell too. This is why Money Mkt Funds and Buffer ETFs are increasingly...