Today's Bonds Pulse
Bond Yields Surge to 19-Year High, Sparking Stock Market Concerns
The 30‑year Treasury yield climbed to a 19‑year peak while the 10‑year rose from 4.03% to 4.69% before easing to about 4.5%. Goldman Sachs research notes that half‑percentage‑point spikes in yields typically turn short‑term S&P 500 returns negative, heightening correction risk. Inflation is running at 3.8% year‑over‑year, fueling the sell‑off.
Are Government Bonds Really Safe?
Three centuries of UK and US government bond data reveal that bonds are safe in recessions but vulnerable during wars, pandemics and geopolitical shocks. Recent events have pushed 10‑year UK gilt yields to 5.07%, the highest since 2008, and a five‑year gilt fund lost about 16% in real terms. Researchers found bonds lose an average 14% real return in the first four years of major conflicts, while financial repression and surprise inflation erode purchasing power. Investors should manage duration and diversify beyond sovereign debt to mitigate these exclusion‑clause risks.
NYC Comptroller Defends $2.3B Bond Sale Amid Budget Criticism
New York City Comptroller Mark D. Levine defended a roughly $2.3 billion municipal bond issuance, rejecting the narrative that Mayor Zohran Mamdani's budget plan scared off investors. He blamed broader market volatility and rising yields, while rating agencies moved to a...
Trump-Fed Clash and Iran War Heighten Stakes Ahead of U.S. Inflation Report
Former President Donald Trump is demanding a federal funds rate near 1% as the Iran war disrupts oil flows, intensifying a feud with Fed Chair Jerome Powell just before the next U.S. inflation report. The standoff threatens to reshape equity...
Zenkyoren Targets Mid-Guidance Pricing for $100m Nakama Re 2026-1 Japan Quake Cat Bond
Zenkyoren, Japan’s agricultural mutual insurer, is pursuing mid‑guidance pricing of 2.1% for its $100 million Nakama Re 2026‑1 catastrophe bond, a slight reduction from the original 1.9‑2.4% spread range. The bond provides fully‑collateralized earthquake reinsurance covering losses from an attachment point...
OpEd: Money Managers: Note Shifts in Bonds
David Kang argues that Los Angeles institutions must reassess long‑standing bond assumptions as market conditions evolve. Decades of low volatility and steady monetary policy gave way to wider non‑directional interest‑rate swings, challenging traditional duration‑heavy, long‑end allocations. Liquidity, once taken for granted,...
Why Faster Corporate Bond Markets Matter for the Real Economy
Recent record‑breaking corporate bond issuance, led by Amazon, has shrunk capital‑raising windows from weeks to mere hours. The speed of credit markets now hinges on rapid interpretation of massive data flows, yet many firms still rely on outdated terminals and...
Mexico Peso Falls Past 18/USD After Surprise Banxico Rate Cut and Oil Spill Fears
The Bank of Mexico voted 3-2 to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%, prompting the peso to slip past 18 per U.S. dollar for the first time since December. The move came as inflation hit 4.63%...
U.S. Equities Slip Fifth Week as Bond Yields Jump on Iran Conflict
U.S. equity markets posted a fifth consecutive week of losses as Treasury yields surged amid heightened Iran tensions. The market slump marks the longest losing streak in nearly four years, underscoring how geopolitical risk is reshaping bond and stock dynamics.
Rising U.S. Mortgage Rates Threaten Spring Home‑Buying as Treasury Yields Climb
U.S. mortgage rates have jumped sharply, creating a major obstacle for the spring home‑buying season. The rise is tied to higher Treasury yields as geopolitical tensions lift oil prices and weigh on global bond markets.
VIX INVERSION, BUYING BONDS, JAPAN & THE JPM OPTION WHALE
Kevin Muir’s second "Catching up with Kev" column links a rare VIX inversion to a surge in bond buying, highlights Japan’s monetary tightening, and dissects JPMorgan’s massive options position that’s reshaping market dynamics. He notes that the VIX’s short‑term contract...
JPMorgan Strategist Rejects Near‑Term Fed Rate‑Cut Forecasts
JPMorgan Chase’s head strategist publicly dismissed market speculation that the Federal Reserve will lower rates in the second half of 2026. The warning aims to curb premature corporate financing moves and recalibrate FP&A forecasts across the economy.
Pockets-of-US-CMBS-Repay-Attention
US commercial mortgage‑backed securities (CMBS) are showing localized repayment activity after a period of muted performance. Structured‑credit executives highlighted that specific asset classes, such as retail and multifamily properties, are seeing improved cash‑flow and lower delinquency rates. The article notes...
The Most Important Charts for the Next Few Weeks
The article highlights a sharp rise in US Treasury yields after an inflation shock tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The 10‑year note closed at 4.44%, and analysts warn that a move toward 5% would confirm fears...
MUB vs VGIT: Municipal Diversification Beats Treasury Yield in Five‑Year Returns
The iShares National Muni Bond ETF (MUB) delivered a 3.7% five‑year total return, outpacing the Vanguard Intermediate‑Term Treasury ETF (VGIT)’s 0.8% gain. While VGIT’s 0.03% lower expense ratio and marginally higher yield appeal to income‑focused investors, MUB’s 6,300‑plus municipal holdings...
Lawler: Update on GSEs
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac increased agency MBS holdings by about $11.3 billion in February, the smallest rise since September 2025 and well below the $15.5 billion jump in January. The increase falls short of the White House’s January pledge for the...
JPMorgan, Pimco Say Bond Market Is Underestimating Slowdown Risk
JPMorgan and asset manager Pimco warned that the bond market is downplaying the risk of a sharp economic slowdown triggered by the ongoing US‑Iran conflict. Crude oil has surged past $110 a barrel, intensifying inflation pressures. Traders have largely fixated...
Rising 5% Breakeven Inflation Threatens S&P Valuations
Bond markets have rapidly repriced near-term expectations for U.S. inflation in response to surging commodity prices. The implied 1-year breakeven inflation rate is now above 5% for the first time since 2022. Elevated bond market-implied inflation expectations may present a problem...
GOF's 20% Yield Is Real. The 36% Premium You Used to Pay for It Is Gone.
Guggenheim Strategic Opportunities Fund (GOF) now yields about 20.6% annualized, trading at $10.61 per share—a near‑zero discount to its $10.64 NAV. After five years of premiums that topped 36%, the premium has collapsed, offering investors a price‑aligned entry point. The...
Q1 Debt Markets Dodge Dire Straits
In the first quarter, Gulf region debt markets posted a flat to –1% performance, while equities managed a modest sub‑5% gain. The local equity index, previously buoyed by a decade‑high optimism, fell sharply after the dollar’s 10% decline against emerging‑market...
Unemployment Rate Drives 10‑2 Yield Curve Movements
The most correlated macro data that explains the 10-2 yield curve is the unemployment rate. Why? The short end drives most of the movements in the curve, and employment heavily influences the short end via Fed policy. This relationship goes...
Phase 2: Volatility Surges, Credit Spreads Finally Widen
Phase 2 - the return of pre-Covid risk off behavior as volatility explodes and credit spreads finally widen.
British Gilts Plunge in Global Bond Sell‑off as BOE Holds Rates Amid Iran War
British government bonds suffered the steepest price drops in the latest worldwide bond rout, with 10‑year gilt yields jumping to 5% after the Bank of England kept its policy rate at 3.75%. Analysts link the sell‑off to the BOE’s stance,...
Liability Maneuvers Cut Bankruptcy Recoveries Nearly in Half
Sobering new read: Liability management maneuvers (LME) often fail to protect L-T value. Per @FitchRatings firms that undertook LMEs btw 2016 & H1 2025 before filing bankruptcy experienced recoveries for first-lien debt of ~39% vs recoveries of ~68% for firms w/o...
Treasury Data Shows U.S. Government Insolvent in FY2025
My take in @asiatimesonline on US debt: “The US gov't is insolvent. That’s not hyperbole — it’s the conclusion drawn directly from the Treasury Department’s own consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025, which was released last week to near-total media silence.”...
Markets Move to Price in Rate Hikes as Inflation Fears and Geopolitics Reshape Fed Expectations
Markets have shifted from expecting Federal Reserve cuts to pricing in rate hikes for 2026. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows about a 30% chance rates will end the year higher than the current 3.50‑3.75% range, while odds of cuts...
Rising 10‑Year Yields and Oil Prices Highlight Def
Yes, indeed. 10-year yields are higher. Oil is materially higher. On the deficits side: I’m old enough to remember DOGE… https://t.co/9uWJASUd8q https://t.co/K8XMoJFshw
10‑Year Treasury Yield Signals Oil’s Impending Downturn
Sec. Bessent, February 2025: "Judge us by the 10y UST yield." 10y UST yield (blue, RS) v. oil, since Bessent said that 👇 "3 Arrows" about to turn into "0-for-3 Arrows": https://t.co/goqhygmgv6
Emerging Markets Rout Lures Contrarians Betting on Rate Cuts
Emerging‑market assets have entered their steepest monthly decline since 2022, with stocks down about 10% and local‑currency bond yields at two‑year highs. Asset managers TT International and AllianceBernstein are buying beaten‑down EM bonds, betting that central banks will cut rates...
Inflation Fears Undermine Bonds' Traditional Safe‑Haven Appeal
"bonds—often a place of safety in times of market turmoil—have offered no relief, hit by worries that resurgent inflation will keep interest rates higher than expected and undermine the value of their fixed payouts." https://t.co/acyJLqVIXP https://t.co/7yOQbeNrn2
Fed Chair Switch Could Trigger Unexpected Pivot Amid Rising Inflation
Powell out in May. Warsh in. Market is pricing hikes. New chair may cut. The wildcard nobody's discussing: what if the Fed pivots just as inflation re-accelerates? One transition. Two completely different outcomes. $SPY $TLT https://t.co/zmsbBtchWk
I Bond’s Fixed Rate Is Likely to Hold at 0.90% at May 1 Reset
U.S. Treasury I‑Bonds are expected to keep their fixed component at 0.90% when the next rate reset occurs on May 1, leaving the composite yield at 4.03% for the full six‑month period. The stable fixed rate preserves the bond’s attractive inflation‑adjusted...
One‑Year Inflation Swaps Hover Near 3%, No Panic
No major inflation scare yet... 1yr inflation swap only about 3%.. not alarming by historical trends Torsten at Apollo https://t.co/YfD4ihEjtb
Bond Market Squeezes Yield Expectations, Proves Wrong
2Y yield: 3.89%. 5Y yield: crossed 4%. Everyone was positioned for rate cuts. Everyone was wrong. Bloomberg calls it the biggest positioning squeeze in years. The bond market just delivered a reality check. $TLT $IEF https://t.co/jyYH8ebPrR
SPAB: Why Stepping Out On The Duration Risk Spectrum Now Makes Sense
State Street’s SPDR Portfolio Aggregate Bond ETF (SPAB) has earned a buy rating as its yield‑to‑maturity climbs to roughly 4.7%, outpacing money‑market and Treasury rates by about 1.1 percentage points. The fund offers low‑cost, diversified exposure to high‑grade U.S. investment‑grade...
Yield Spread Peaks, Prompting Duration Risk Exit
3m10y yield spread 71bps... highest since July 2022... time to step out on the duration-risk curve? $AGG https://t.co/ozSwbxzLA4
Eurozone Borrowing Costs Spike over Iran Shock Fears
Eurozone borrowing costs soar on fears of fiscal hit from Iran shock via @FT https://t.co/QuVa5RF5wm
U.S. Treasury Faces Weak Demand as $10 Trillion Debt Roll‑Over Looms
The U.S. Treasury reported tepid demand for its latest 2‑, 5‑ and 7‑year note auctions, pushing yields higher as the government prepares to roll over roughly $10 trillion of maturing debt. Analysts warn the shortfall could spill over into corporate borrowing...
Oracle's AI Push Threatens $5.75B Dividend as Free Cash Flow Turns Negative
Oracle Corp. is ramping AI infrastructure spending, driving fiscal 2026 capex to $50.64 billion and projecting free cash flow of -$23.28 billion. The cash burn threatens the company’s $5.75 billion annual dividend, raising concerns for income‑focused investors.
JPMorgan Engineers $15 B Debt Sale for EA’s $55 B Record LBO
JPMorgan Chase & Co. finalized a $15 billion debt package that underpins Electronic Arts' $55 billion leveraged buyout, the largest LBO in history. The financing was completed on March 22 despite heightened geopolitical risk surrounding potential U.S. action against Iranian energy infrastructure.
JPMorgan Says Fed Rate Cuts Unlikely in H2 2026, Citing High Hike Bar
JPMorgan chief strategist Oksana Aronov told CNBC the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower rates in the second half of 2026, arguing that the bar for any hike remains high. The comment comes as CME FedWatch data shows traders have...
These NPS Schemes Weathered the 18-Month Market Pain
Over the 18‑month market downturn from September 2024 to March 2026, National Pension System (NPS) equity schemes declined 9.3%, outperforming the Nifty 100 (‑11%) and large‑cap mutual funds (‑9.7%). Corporate‑bond NPS schemes posted a solid 10.2% gain, beating the CRISIL Composite index’s 8.1%...
VGSH and SCHO Trade Near Parity, Vanguard Leads in Size with $32.7B AUM
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF (SCHO) are trading almost identically, each offering a 0.03% expense ratio and a 4.0% dividend yield. While their cost and income profiles match, VGSH commands a clear size edge...
War Risks Renew Bond Market Crises Across Europe
The last time we had a supply shock and oil prices rose - in 2022 - Italy and Spain got the ECB to cap their yields to survive and the UK bond market blew up in the LDI crisis. If...
Short‑term Yields Drop, Long‑term Rise; Gold Steadies
What was equally intriguing in Friday’s trading was the unhinging of the short end of the curve from the long end. The 2-yr yield fell by 7.4 bps to 3.91% while that of the benchmark 10-yr rose by 1.6 bps to...
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink Calls Social Security a Wealth‑Creation Barrier in 2026 Letter
Larry Fink, chairman and CEO of BlackRock, used his 2026 annual investor letter to argue that Social Security’s low Treasury‑bond returns are stifling wealth creation. He highlighted the 2.6% yield versus a 16% S&P 500 gain in 2025 and cited...
Global Public Debt Hits Record, Equals World GDP
International Monetary Fund: Global public debt has risen to a record level - nearly 100% of global GDP. https://t.co/H6FXJN78RZ
Rising Yields and Growth Fears Prompt TLT, SPY Sell‑offs
10Y yield at 4.44%. Highest since July 2025. Rates rising while growth fears mount. $TLT sellers and $SPY sellers agree on one thing: neither wants to own the future right now. That's a problem. https://t.co/lYjNri1VOz
UK Gilt Yields Spike Above 5% as Middle East War Drives Worst Sell‑off Since 2008
British government bonds have taken the hardest hit in the global bond market rout, with 10‑year gilt yields breaching 5% for the first time since the 2008 crisis. The surge follows heightened geopolitical risk from the Iran‑Israel war and a...
Bonds Outpace Stocks, Signaling New Bullish Hard‑asset Era
Same Story - One month Bonds $TLT -5% vs Stocks $QQQ -7% Last 20 years, equities risk-off + geopolitical events = bonds rallied / with higher prices. Game changer, since 2022 this has not been the case, a significant -...
Fed Futures Show 28% Chance of October Hike
Fed Fund futures market is loose.. now just a 28% chance of a hike by October https://t.co/xszONB6nqL